Grains and Soybean Price Outlook

Michigan Agricultural Credit Conference

Jim Hilker Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics Department Michigan State University October 29, 2014

Monthly Corn Futures

10/28/14 Dec 2014 Corn Futures

Est. Proj.2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014-2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

(million acres)Acres Planted 78.9 78.6 80.9 81.8 78.3 93.5 86.0 86.4 88.2 91.9 97.2 95.4 90.9Acres Harvested 69.3 70.9 73.6 75.1 70.6 86.5 78.6 79.5 81.4 84.0 87.4 87.7 83.1Yield/Bushels 129.3 142.2 160.4 148 149.1 150.7 153.9 164.7 152.8 147.2 123.4 158.8 174.2

(million bushels)Beginning Stocks 1596 1087 958 2114 1967 1304 1624 1673 1708 1128 989 821 1236Production 8967 10089 11807 11114 10531 13038 12092 13092 12447 12360 10780 13925 14475Imports 14 14 11 9 12 20 14 8 28 29 160 36 25 Total Supply 10578 11190 12776 13237 12510 14362 13729 14774 14182 13517 11929 14782 15736

Use:Feed & Residual 5563 5798 6158 6155 5591 5913 5182 5125 4795 4557 4339 5125 5375Food, Seed & Ind 2340 2537 2686 2981 3490 4387 5025 5961 6426 6428 6039 6504 6530Ethanol for fuel 996 1168 1323 1603 2119 3049 3709 4591 5019 5000 4641 5130 5125Total Domestic 7903 8335 8844 9136 9081 10300 10207 11086 11221 10985 10378 11629 11905Exports 1588 1897 1818 2134 2125 2437 1849 1980 1834 1543 730 1917 1750 Total Use 9491 10232 10662 11270 11206 12737 12056 13066 13055 12528 11108 13546 13655

Ending Stocks 1087 958 2114 1967 1304 1624 1673 1708 1128 989 821 1236 2081Ending Stocks, %of Use 11.5 9.4 19.8 17.5 11.6 12.8 13.9 13.1 8.6 7.9 7.4 9.1 15.2

U.S. Loan Rate $1.98 $1.98 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95U.S. Season AveFarm Price, $/Bu. $2.32 $2.42 $2.06 $2.00 $3.04 $4.20 $4.06 $3.55 $5.18 $6.22 $6.89 $4.46 $3.40

Source: USDA/WASDE and Jim Hilker. (10 - 10 - 14)

TABLE 1 SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE SHEET FOR CORN

U.S. Meat Production and Prices

October 10, 2014

2014 estimate

2015 forecast

Change from September 11

Change from 2014

Production Billion pounds Percent PercentBeef 24.36 23.79 0.6 -2.3Pork 22.76 23.93 2.6 5.1Broilers 38.45 39.56 0.2 2.9Turkey 5.73 5.93 0.0 3.4Total meat 92.07 93.99 0.9 2.1

Prices Dollars/cwtSteers 152.91 155.50 0.0 1.7Hogs 77.60 65.75 -6.4 -15.3

Cents/lbBroilers 105.2 104.0 1.2 -1.1Turkey 107.6 106.5 0.0 -1.0

Est. Proj.2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014-2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

(million acres)Acres Planted 78.9 78.6 80.9 81.8 78.3 93.5 86.0 86.4 88.2 91.9 97.2 95.4 90.9Acres Harvested 69.3 70.9 73.6 75.1 70.6 86.5 78.6 79.5 81.4 84.0 87.4 87.7 83.1Yield/Bushels 129.3 142.2 160.4 148 149.1 150.7 153.9 164.7 152.8 147.2 123.4 158.8 174.2

(million bushels)Beginning Stocks 1596 1087 958 2114 1967 1304 1624 1673 1708 1128 989 821 1236Production 8967 10089 11807 11114 10531 13038 12092 13092 12447 12360 10780 13925 14475Imports 14 14 11 9 12 20 14 8 28 29 160 36 25 Total Supply 10578 11190 12776 13237 12510 14362 13729 14774 14182 13517 11929 14782 15736

Use:Feed & Residual 5563 5798 6158 6155 5591 5913 5182 5125 4795 4557 4339 5125 5375Food, Seed & Ind 2340 2537 2686 2981 3490 4387 5025 5961 6426 6428 6039 6504 6530Ethanol for fuel 996 1168 1323 1603 2119 3049 3709 4591 5019 5000 4641 5130 5125Total Domestic 7903 8335 8844 9136 9081 10300 10207 11086 11221 10985 10378 11629 11905Exports 1588 1897 1818 2134 2125 2437 1849 1980 1834 1543 730 1917 1750 Total Use 9491 10232 10662 11270 11206 12737 12056 13066 13055 12528 11108 13546 13655

Ending Stocks 1087 958 2114 1967 1304 1624 1673 1708 1128 989 821 1236 2081Ending Stocks, %of Use 11.5 9.4 19.8 17.5 11.6 12.8 13.9 13.1 8.6 7.9 7.4 9.1 15.2

U.S. Loan Rate $1.98 $1.98 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95U.S. Season AveFarm Price, $/Bu. $2.32 $2.42 $2.06 $2.00 $3.04 $4.20 $4.06 $3.55 $5.18 $6.22 $6.89 $4.46 $3.40

Source: USDA/WASDE and Jim Hilker. (10 - 10 - 14)

TABLE 1 SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE SHEET FOR CORN

Est. Proj.2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014-2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

(million acres)Acres Planted 78.9 78.6 80.9 81.8 78.3 93.5 86.0 86.4 88.2 91.9 97.2 95.4 90.9Acres Harvested 69.3 70.9 73.6 75.1 70.6 86.5 78.6 79.5 81.4 84.0 87.4 87.7 83.1Yield/Bushels 129.3 142.2 160.4 148 149.1 150.7 153.9 164.7 152.8 147.2 123.4 158.8 174.2

(million bushels)Beginning Stocks 1596 1087 958 2114 1967 1304 1624 1673 1708 1128 989 821 1236Production 8967 10089 11807 11114 10531 13038 12092 13092 12447 12360 10780 13925 14475Imports 14 14 11 9 12 20 14 8 28 29 160 36 25 Total Supply 10578 11190 12776 13237 12510 14362 13729 14774 14182 13517 11929 14782 15736

Use:Feed & Residual 5563 5798 6158 6155 5591 5913 5182 5125 4795 4557 4339 5125 5375Food, Seed & Ind 2340 2537 2686 2981 3490 4387 5025 5961 6426 6428 6039 6504 6530Ethanol for fuel 996 1168 1323 1603 2119 3049 3709 4591 5019 5000 4641 5130 5125Total Domestic 7903 8335 8844 9136 9081 10300 10207 11086 11221 10985 10378 11629 11905Exports 1588 1897 1818 2134 2125 2437 1849 1980 1834 1543 730 1917 1750 Total Use 9491 10232 10662 11270 11206 12737 12056 13066 13055 12528 11108 13546 13655

Ending Stocks 1087 958 2114 1967 1304 1624 1673 1708 1128 989 821 1236 2081Ending Stocks, %of Use 11.5 9.4 19.8 17.5 11.6 12.8 13.9 13.1 8.6 7.9 7.4 9.1 15.2

U.S. Loan Rate $1.98 $1.98 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95U.S. Season AveFarm Price, $/Bu. $2.32 $2.42 $2.06 $2.00 $3.04 $4.20 $4.06 $3.55 $5.18 $6.22 $6.89 $4.46 $3.40

Source: USDA/WASDE and Jim Hilker. (10 - 10 - 14)

TABLE 1 SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE SHEET FOR CORN

World Corn Production

October 10, 2014

Country or Region2013/14 estimate

2014/15 forecast

Change from September 11

Change from 2013/14

Million Tons Percent PercentWorld 988.6 990.7 0.3 0.2United States 353.7 367.7 0.6 3.9

Foreign 634.9 623.0 0.2 -1.9Argentina 25.0 23.0 0.0 -8.0Brazil 79.3 75.0 0.0 -5.4Mexico 22.4 22.5 0.0 0.4Canada 14.2 11.5 -0.9 -19.0European Union 64.2 71.0 3.9 10.6FSU-12 46.9 40.7 -4.7 -13.3Ukraine 30.9 25.0 -3.8 -19.1Russia 11.6 12.0 -4.0 3.1

South Africa 14.8 13.5 0.0 -8.5China 218.5 217.0 0.0 -0.7India 24.2 21.0 0.0 -13.2

World Corn Supply and Use

October 10, 2014

2013/14 estimate

2014/15 forecast

Change from September 11

Change from 2013/14

Million Tons Percent PercentBeginning stocks 137.7 173.0 0.0 25.7Production 988.6 990.7 0.3 0.2Total Supply 1,126.2 1,163.7 0.3 3.3

Feed use 575.8 596.2 0.4 3.5Total use 953.2 973.1 0.2 2.1

Trade 129.0 114.1 -1.0 -11.6Ending Stocks 173.0 190.6 0.4 10.2

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING 10/16/2014 New Crop Weekly Prev Weekly Sales Unshipped Total Year Sales Unshipped --GRAINS-- (in million bushels) Corn 40.6 496.8 718.6 629.0 0.0 33.0 Sorghum 9.2 72.9 111.7 48.6 0.0 0.0 Soybeans 79.6 995.7 1,204.2 1,010.0 0.1 3.0 All Wheat 11.0 6.1 539.9 704.8 0.0 2.9 Durum 0.0 0.1 11.3 8.3 0.0 0.0 Hard Red Spring 3.5 1.8 166.7 129.2 0.0 0.0 Hard Red Winter 3.0 54.1 173.8 261.7 0.0 2.2 Soft Red Winter 2.8 33.1 101.0 217.7 0.0 0.7 White 1.7 27.1 87.1 88.0 0.0 0.0 --OTHER-- (in thousand metric tons) Soyoil 10.6 191.8 222.1 64.7 0.0 0.0 Soymeal 23.0 6,015.8 6,245.5 3,868.5 0.0 74.6

Est. Proj.2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014-2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

(million acres)Acres Planted 78.9 78.6 80.9 81.8 78.3 93.5 86.0 86.4 88.2 91.9 97.2 95.4 90.9Acres Harvested 69.3 70.9 73.6 75.1 70.6 86.5 78.6 79.5 81.4 84.0 87.4 87.7 83.1Yield/Bushels 129.3 142.2 160.4 148 149.1 150.7 153.9 164.7 152.8 147.2 123.4 158.8 174.2

(million bushels)Beginning Stocks 1596 1087 958 2114 1967 1304 1624 1673 1708 1128 989 821 1236Production 8967 10089 11807 11114 10531 13038 12092 13092 12447 12360 10780 13925 14475Imports 14 14 11 9 12 20 14 8 28 29 160 36 25 Total Supply 10578 11190 12776 13237 12510 14362 13729 14774 14182 13517 11929 14782 15736

Use:Feed & Residual 5563 5798 6158 6155 5591 5913 5182 5125 4795 4557 4339 5125 5375Food, Seed & Ind 2340 2537 2686 2981 3490 4387 5025 5961 6426 6428 6039 6504 6530Ethanol for fuel 996 1168 1323 1603 2119 3049 3709 4591 5019 5000 4641 5130 5125Total Domestic 7903 8335 8844 9136 9081 10300 10207 11086 11221 10985 10378 11629 11905Exports 1588 1897 1818 2134 2125 2437 1849 1980 1834 1543 730 1917 1750 Total Use 9491 10232 10662 11270 11206 12737 12056 13066 13055 12528 11108 13546 13655

Ending Stocks 1087 958 2114 1967 1304 1624 1673 1708 1128 989 821 1236 2081Ending Stocks, %of Use 11.5 9.4 19.8 17.5 11.6 12.8 13.9 13.1 8.6 7.9 7.4 9.1 15.2

U.S. Loan Rate $1.98 $1.98 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95U.S. Season AveFarm Price, $/Bu. $2.32 $2.42 $2.06 $2.00 $3.04 $4.20 $4.06 $3.55 $5.18 $6.22 $6.89 $4.46 $3.40

Source: USDA/WASDE and Jim Hilker. (10 - 10 - 14)

TABLE 1 SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE SHEET FOR CORN

Corn Futures 10/27/14 Month Close Dec 14 363'0s Mar 15 376'6 May 15 385'4 Jul 15 392'6 Sep 15 399'6 Dec 15 408'0 Mar 16 416'6 May 16 423'2 Jul 16 426'2 Sep 16 421'2 Dec 16 417'6 Jul 17 435'0 Dec 17 416'2

10/28/14 Dec 2014 Corn Futures

Dec 2014 Corn Futures

10/28/14 July 2015 Corn Futures

July 2015 Corn Futures

WHEAT

Monthly Wheat Futures

10/28/14 Dec 2014 Wheat Futures

Est. Proj.2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014-2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

(Million Acres)Acres Planted 62.1 59.7 57.2 57.3 60.5 63.2 59.2 53.6 54.4 55.7 56.2 56.8Acres Harvested 53.1 50.0 50.1 46.8 51.0 55.7 49.9 47.6 45.7 48.9 45.3 46.5Bu./Harvested Acre 44.2 43.2 42.0 38.6 40.2 44.9 44.5 46.3 43.7 46.3 47.1 43.8

(Million Bushels)Beginning Stocks 491 546 540 571 456 306 657 976 862 743 718 590Production 2345 2158 2105 1808 2051 2499 2218 2207 1999 2266 2135 2035Imports 68 71 82 122 113 127 119 97 112 123 169 170 Total Supply 2904 2775 2727 2501 2620 2932 2993 3279 2974 3131 3022 2795Use:Food 907 910 915 938 948 927 919 926 941 945 951 960Seed 80 78 78 82 88 78 69 71 76 73 77 76Feed and Residual 212 182 160 117 16 255 150 132 162 384 228 180 Total Domestic 1194 1169 1152 1137 1051 1260 1138 1128 1180 1401 1256 1216 Exports 1159 1066 1003 908 1263 1015 879 1289 1051 1012 1176 925 Total Use 2353 2235 2155 2045 2314 2275 2018 2417 2231 2414 2432 2141

Ending Stocks 546 540 571 456 306 657 976 862 743 718 590 654Ending Stocks, %of Use 23.2 24.2 26.5 22.3 13.2 28.9 48.3 35.7 33.3 29.7 24.2 30.5

U.S. Loan Rate $2.80 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75

U.S. Season Ave U.S. $/Bu. $3.40 $3.40 $3.42 $4.26 $6.48 $6.78 $4.87 $5.70 $7.24 $7.77 $6.87 $5.90 Michigan $/Bu. $3.35 $3.01 $3.13 $3.41 $5.01 $5.63 $4.25 $5.72 $6.70 $7.75 $6.70 $5.35

Source: USDA/WASDE and Jim Hilker (10 - 10 - 2014)

TABLE 2SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE SHEET FOR WHEAT

Est. Proj.2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014-2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

(Million Acres)Acres Planted 62.1 59.7 57.2 57.3 60.5 63.2 59.2 53.6 54.4 55.7 56.2 56.8Acres Harvested 53.1 50.0 50.1 46.8 51.0 55.7 49.9 47.6 45.7 48.9 45.3 46.5Bu./Harvested Acre 44.2 43.2 42.0 38.6 40.2 44.9 44.5 46.3 43.7 46.3 47.1 43.8

(Million Bushels)Beginning Stocks 491 546 540 571 456 306 657 976 862 743 718 590Production 2345 2158 2105 1808 2051 2499 2218 2207 1999 2266 2135 2035Imports 68 71 82 122 113 127 119 97 112 123 169 170 Total Supply 2904 2775 2727 2501 2620 2932 2993 3279 2974 3131 3022 2795Use:Food 907 910 915 938 948 927 919 926 941 945 951 960Seed 80 78 78 82 88 78 69 71 76 73 77 76Feed and Residual 212 182 160 117 16 255 150 132 162 384 228 180 Total Domestic 1194 1169 1152 1137 1051 1260 1138 1128 1180 1401 1256 1216 Exports 1159 1066 1003 908 1263 1015 879 1289 1051 1012 1176 925 Total Use 2353 2235 2155 2045 2314 2275 2018 2417 2231 2414 2432 2141

Ending Stocks 546 540 571 456 306 657 976 862 743 718 590 654Ending Stocks, %of Use 23.2 24.2 26.5 22.3 13.2 28.9 48.3 35.7 33.3 29.7 24.2 30.5

U.S. Loan Rate $2.80 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75

U.S. Season Ave U.S. $/Bu. $3.40 $3.40 $3.42 $4.26 $6.48 $6.78 $4.87 $5.70 $7.24 $7.77 $6.87 $5.90 Michigan $/Bu. $3.35 $3.01 $3.13 $3.41 $5.01 $5.63 $4.25 $5.72 $6.70 $7.75 $6.70 $5.35

Source: USDA/WASDE and Jim Hilker (10 - 10 - 2014)

TABLE 2SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE SHEET FOR WHEAT

World Wheat Production

October 10, 2014

Country or Region2013/14 estimate

2014/15 forecast

Change from September 11

Change from 2013/14

Million Tons Percent PercentWorld 715.1 721.1 0.2 0.8United States 58.1 55.4 0.3 -4.7

Foreign 657.0 665.7 0.2 1.3Argentina 10.5 12.0 -2.4 14.3Canada 37.5 27.5 -1.8 -26.7Australia 27.0 25.0 -2.0 -7.5European Union 143.1 154.0 2.0 7.6Russia 52.1 59.0 0.0 13.3Ukraine 22.3 24.5 2.1 10.0Kazakhstan 13.9 12.5 -7.4 -10.3China 121.9 126.0 0.0 3.3India 93.5 95.9 0.1 2.6

World Wheat Supply and Use

October 10, 2014

2013/14 estimate

2014/15 forecast

Change from September 11

Change from 2013/14

Million Tons Percent PercentBeginning stocks 175.0 185.6 -0.5 6.1Production 715.1 721.1 0.2 0.8Total Supply 890.1 906.7 0.0 1.9

Feed use 130.2 140.3 1.9 7.8Total use 704.5 714.1 0.6 1.4

Trade 166.2 156.0 0.8 -6.1Ending Stocks 185.6 192.6 -1.9 3.8

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING 10/16/2014 New Crop Weekly Prev Weekly Sales Unshipped Total Year Sales Unshipped --GRAINS-- (in million bushels) Corn 40.6 496.8 718.6 629.0 0.0 33.0 Sorghum 9.2 72.9 111.7 48.6 0.0 0.0 Soybeans 79.6 995.7 1,204.2 1,010.0 0.1 3.0 All Wheat 11.0 6.1 539.9 704.8 0.0 2.9 Durum 0.0 0.1 11.3 8.3 0.0 0.0 Hard Red Spring 3.5 1.8 166.7 129.2 0.0 0.0 Hard Red Winter 3.0 54.1 173.8 261.7 0.0 2.2 Soft Red Winter 2.8 33.1 101.0 217.7 0.0 0.7 White 1.7 27.1 87.1 88.0 0.0 0.0 --OTHER-- (in thousand metric tons) Soyoil 10.6 191.8 222.1 64.7 0.0 0.0 Soymeal 23.0 6,015.8 6,245.5 3,868.5 0.0 74.6

Est. Proj.2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014-2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

(Million Acres)Acres Planted 62.1 59.7 57.2 57.3 60.5 63.2 59.2 53.6 54.4 55.7 56.2 56.8Acres Harvested 53.1 50.0 50.1 46.8 51.0 55.7 49.9 47.6 45.7 48.9 45.3 46.5Bu./Harvested Acre 44.2 43.2 42.0 38.6 40.2 44.9 44.5 46.3 43.7 46.3 47.1 43.8

(Million Bushels)Beginning Stocks 491 546 540 571 456 306 657 976 862 743 718 590Production 2345 2158 2105 1808 2051 2499 2218 2207 1999 2266 2135 2035Imports 68 71 82 122 113 127 119 97 112 123 169 170 Total Supply 2904 2775 2727 2501 2620 2932 2993 3279 2974 3131 3022 2795Use:Food 907 910 915 938 948 927 919 926 941 945 951 960Seed 80 78 78 82 88 78 69 71 76 73 77 76Feed and Residual 212 182 160 117 16 255 150 132 162 384 228 180 Total Domestic 1194 1169 1152 1137 1051 1260 1138 1128 1180 1401 1256 1216 Exports 1159 1066 1003 908 1263 1015 879 1289 1051 1012 1176 925 Total Use 2353 2235 2155 2045 2314 2275 2018 2417 2231 2414 2432 2141

Ending Stocks 546 540 571 456 306 657 976 862 743 718 590 654Ending Stocks, %of Use 23.2 24.2 26.5 22.3 13.2 28.9 48.3 35.7 33.3 29.7 24.2 30.5

U.S. Loan Rate $2.80 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75

U.S. Season Ave U.S. $/Bu. $3.40 $3.40 $3.42 $4.26 $6.48 $6.78 $4.87 $5.70 $7.24 $7.77 $6.87 $5.90 Michigan $/Bu. $3.35 $3.01 $3.13 $3.41 $5.01 $5.63 $4.25 $5.72 $6.70 $7.75 $6.70 $5.35

Source: USDA/WASDE and Jim Hilker (10 - 10 - 2014)

TABLE 2SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE SHEET FOR WHEAT

Wheat Futures 10/27/14

Month Close Dec 14 522'6s Mar 15 536'4s May 15 544'0s Jul 15 551'6s Sep 15 561'6s Dec 15 574'0s

10/28/14 Dec 2014 Wheat Futures

Dec 2014 Wheat Futures

10/28/14 July 2015 Wheat Futures

July 2015 Wheat Futures

SOYBEAN OUTLOOK

Monthly Soybean Futures

Nov 2014 Soybean Futures

Est. Proj.2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014-2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

(Million Acres)Acres Planted 74 73.4 75.2 72 75.5 64.7 75.7 77.5 77.4 75.0 77.2 76.8 84.2Acres Harvested 72.5 72.3 74.0 71.3 74.6 64.1 74.7 76.4 76.6 73.8 76.2 76.3 83.4Yield/Bushels 38.0 33.9 42.2 43.0 42.9 41.7 39.7 44.0 43.5 41.9 39.8 44.0 47.1

(Million Bushels)Beginning Stocks 208 178 112 256 449 574 205 138 151 215 169 141 92Production 2756 2454 3124 3063 3197 2677 2967 3359 3329 3094 3034 3358 3927Imports 5 6 6 3 9 10 13 15 14 16 41 80 15 Total Supply 2969 2638 3242 3322 3656 3261 3185 3512 3495 3325 3243 3570 4034

Use:Crushings 1615 1530 1696 1739 1808 1803 1662 1752 1648 1703 1689 1734 1770Exports 1045 885 1097 940 1116 1159 1279 1499 1501 1365 1317 1647 1700Seed 89 92 88 93 80 93 90 90 87 90 89 98 92Residual 41 19 105 101 77 0 16 20 43 -2 8 0 22 Total Use 2791 2526 2986 2873 3081 3056 3047 3361 3280 3155 3103 3478 3583

Ending Stocks 178 112 256 449 574 205 138 151 215 169 141 92 450Ending Stocks, %of Use 6.4 4.4 8.6 15.6 18.6 6.7 4.5 4.5 6.5 5.4 4.5 2.6 12.6

U.S. Loan Rate $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00

U.S. Season AveFarm Price, $/Bu. $5.53 $7.34 $5.74 $5.66 $6.43 $10.10 $9.97 $9.59 $11.30 $12.50 $14.40 $13.00 $10.00

Source: USDA/WASDE and Jim Hilker. (10 - 10 - 14)

SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE SHEET FOR SOYBEANSTABLE 3

Est. Proj.2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014-2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

(Million Acres)Acres Planted 74 73.4 75.2 72 75.5 64.7 75.7 77.5 77.4 75.0 77.2 76.8 84.2Acres Harvested 72.5 72.3 74.0 71.3 74.6 64.1 74.7 76.4 76.6 73.8 76.2 76.3 83.4Yield/Bushels 38.0 33.9 42.2 43.0 42.9 41.7 39.7 44.0 43.5 41.9 39.8 44.0 47.1

(Million Bushels)Beginning Stocks 208 178 112 256 449 574 205 138 151 215 169 141 92Production 2756 2454 3124 3063 3197 2677 2967 3359 3329 3094 3034 3358 3927Imports 5 6 6 3 9 10 13 15 14 16 41 80 15 Total Supply 2969 2638 3242 3322 3656 3261 3185 3512 3495 3325 3243 3570 4034

Use:Crushings 1615 1530 1696 1739 1808 1803 1662 1752 1648 1703 1689 1734 1770Exports 1045 885 1097 940 1116 1159 1279 1499 1501 1365 1317 1647 1700Seed 89 92 88 93 80 93 90 90 87 90 89 98 92Residual 41 19 105 101 77 0 16 20 43 -2 8 0 22 Total Use 2791 2526 2986 2873 3081 3056 3047 3361 3280 3155 3103 3478 3583

Ending Stocks 178 112 256 449 574 205 138 151 215 169 141 92 450Ending Stocks, %of Use 6.4 4.4 8.6 15.6 18.6 6.7 4.5 4.5 6.5 5.4 4.5 2.6 12.6

U.S. Loan Rate $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00

U.S. Season AveFarm Price, $/Bu. $5.53 $7.34 $5.74 $5.66 $6.43 $10.10 $9.97 $9.59 $11.30 $12.50 $14.40 $13.00 $10.00

Source: USDA/WASDE and Jim Hilker. (10 - 10 - 14)

SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE SHEET FOR SOYBEANSTABLE 3

2012/13 . Est 2013/14 . Proj 2014/15

September

Filler Filler Filler

Million Pounds2540 1705 1435

19820 20205 20445196 165 160

22555 22075 2204018687 18850 18200

4689 4800 480013998 14050 13400

2164 1900 210020850 20750 20300

1705 1325 174047.13 38.23 34.00 - 38.00

Total

Use, Total 20400Ending stocks 1530Avg. Price (c/lb) 2/ 34.00 - 38.00

Biodiesel 3/ 4800 Food, Feed & other Industrial 13500Exports 2100

Imports 160 Supply, Total 21930Domestic Disappearance 18300

Beginning Stocks 1325Production 4/ 20445

SOYBEAN OIL. Proj 2014/15

October

Filler

Filler

October 2014WASDE - 534 - 15

U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/

2012/13 . Est 2013/14 . Proj 2014/15

September

1 2 3

Thousand Short Tons300 275 300

39875 40875 42035245 350 165

40420 41500 4250028969 29700 3020011176 11500 1200040145 41200 42200

275 300 300468.11 489.94 330.00 - 370.00Avg. Price ($/s.t.) 2/ 330.00 - 370.00

Total

Exports 12000 Use, Total 42200Ending Stocks 300

Imports 165 Supply, Total 42500Domestic Disappearance 30200

Beginning Stocks 300Production 4/ 42035

SOYBEAN MEAL. Proj 2014/15

October

Filler

4

October 2014WASDE - 534 - 15

U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/

December 2014 Soybean Meal Futures

Est. Proj.2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014-2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

(Million Acres)Acres Planted 74 73.4 75.2 72 75.5 64.7 75.7 77.5 77.4 75.0 77.2 76.8 84.2Acres Harvested 72.5 72.3 74.0 71.3 74.6 64.1 74.7 76.4 76.6 73.8 76.2 76.3 83.4Yield/Bushels 38.0 33.9 42.2 43.0 42.9 41.7 39.7 44.0 43.5 41.9 39.8 44.0 47.1

(Million Bushels)Beginning Stocks 208 178 112 256 449 574 205 138 151 215 169 141 92Production 2756 2454 3124 3063 3197 2677 2967 3359 3329 3094 3034 3358 3927Imports 5 6 6 3 9 10 13 15 14 16 41 80 15 Total Supply 2969 2638 3242 3322 3656 3261 3185 3512 3495 3325 3243 3570 4034

Use:Crushings 1615 1530 1696 1739 1808 1803 1662 1752 1648 1703 1689 1734 1770Exports 1045 885 1097 940 1116 1159 1279 1499 1501 1365 1317 1647 1700Seed 89 92 88 93 80 93 90 90 87 90 89 98 92Residual 41 19 105 101 77 0 16 20 43 -2 8 0 22 Total Use 2791 2526 2986 2873 3081 3056 3047 3361 3280 3155 3103 3478 3583

Ending Stocks 178 112 256 449 574 205 138 151 215 169 141 92 450Ending Stocks, %of Use 6.4 4.4 8.6 15.6 18.6 6.7 4.5 4.5 6.5 5.4 4.5 2.6 12.6

U.S. Loan Rate $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00

U.S. Season AveFarm Price, $/Bu. $5.53 $7.34 $5.74 $5.66 $6.43 $10.10 $9.97 $9.59 $11.30 $12.50 $14.40 $13.00 $10.00

Source: USDA/WASDE and Jim Hilker. (10 - 10 - 14)

SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE SHEET FOR SOYBEANSTABLE 3

World Soybean Production

October 10, 2014

Country or Region

2013/14 estimate

2014/15 forecast

Change from September 11

Change from 2013/14

Million Tons Percent PercentWorld 285.0 311.2 0.0 9.2United States 91.4 106.9 0.4 16.9

Foreign 193.6 204.3 -0.1 5.5Argentina 54.0 55.0 0.0 1.9Brazil 86.7 94.0 0.0 8.4Paraguay 8.1 8.2 0.0 1.2Ukraine 2.8 3.5 0.0 26.2India 11.0 11.0 0.0 0.0China 12.2 11.8 -1.7 -3.3

World Soybean Supply and Use

2012/13 2013/14 2014/15Est. Proj.

Beginning Stocks 53.55 56.84 66.49Production 267.83 285.01 311.20Imports 95.88 108.90 112.50 Total Supply 417.26 450.75 490.19

Domestic Crush 229.57 239.21 251.48DomesticTotal 259.90 270.87 284.33Exports 100.52 113.39 115.20 Total Use 360.42 384.26 399.53

Ending Stocks 56.84 66.49 90.66

Oct. 2014

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING 10/16/2014 New Crop Weekly Prev Weekly Sales Unshipped Total Year Sales Unshipped --GRAINS-- (in million bushels) Corn 40.6 496.8 718.6 629.0 0.0 33.0 Sorghum 9.2 72.9 111.7 48.6 0.0 0.0 Soybeans 79.6 995.7 1,204.2 1,010.0 0.1 3.0 All Wheat 11.0 6.1 539.9 704.8 0.0 2.9 Durum 0.0 0.1 11.3 8.3 0.0 0.0 Hard Red Spring 3.5 1.8 166.7 129.2 0.0 0.0 Hard Red Winter 3.0 54.1 173.8 261.7 0.0 2.2 Soft Red Winter 2.8 33.1 101.0 217.7 0.0 0.7 White 1.7 27.1 87.1 88.0 0.0 0.0 --OTHER-- (in thousand metric tons) Soyoil 10.6 191.8 222.1 64.7 0.0 0.0 Soymeal 23.0 6,015.8 6,245.5 3,868.5 0.0 74.6

Est. Proj.2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014-2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

(Million Acres)Acres Planted 74 73.4 75.2 72 75.5 64.7 75.7 77.5 77.4 75.0 77.2 76.8 84.2Acres Harvested 72.5 72.3 74.0 71.3 74.6 64.1 74.7 76.4 76.6 73.8 76.2 76.3 83.4Yield/Bushels 38.0 33.9 42.2 43.0 42.9 41.7 39.7 44.0 43.5 41.9 39.8 44.0 47.1

(Million Bushels)Beginning Stocks 208 178 112 256 449 574 205 138 151 215 169 141 92Production 2756 2454 3124 3063 3197 2677 2967 3359 3329 3094 3034 3358 3927Imports 5 6 6 3 9 10 13 15 14 16 41 80 15 Total Supply 2969 2638 3242 3322 3656 3261 3185 3512 3495 3325 3243 3570 4034

Use:Crushings 1615 1530 1696 1739 1808 1803 1662 1752 1648 1703 1689 1734 1770Exports 1045 885 1097 940 1116 1159 1279 1499 1501 1365 1317 1647 1700Seed 89 92 88 93 80 93 90 90 87 90 89 98 92Residual 41 19 105 101 77 0 16 20 43 -2 8 0 22 Total Use 2791 2526 2986 2873 3081 3056 3047 3361 3280 3155 3103 3478 3583

Ending Stocks 178 112 256 449 574 205 138 151 215 169 141 92 450Ending Stocks, %of Use 6.4 4.4 8.6 15.6 18.6 6.7 4.5 4.5 6.5 5.4 4.5 2.6 12.6

U.S. Loan Rate $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00

U.S. Season AveFarm Price, $/Bu. $5.53 $7.34 $5.74 $5.66 $6.43 $10.10 $9.97 $9.59 $11.30 $12.50 $14.40 $13.00 $10.00

Source: USDA/WASDE and Jim Hilker. (10 - 10 - 14)

SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE SHEET FOR SOYBEANSTABLE 3

Soybean Futures 10/27/14

Month Close Nov 14 1006'0 Jan 15 1012'6 Mar 15 1019'4 May 15 1025'6 Jul 15 1030'4 Aug 15 1030'0 Sep 15 1011'0 Nov 15 998'2 Jan 16 1003'2

Nov 2014 Soybean Futures

July 2015 Soybean Futures

July 2015 Soybean Futures

FAPRI14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19

CORN 3.40 3.74 3.98 4.19 4.20SOYBEANS 9.95 8.93 9.55 10.26 10.50WHEAT 5.88 5.39 5.63 5.87 5.97

Durum 7.49 6.34 6.63 6.92 7.04Other Spring 5.97 5.67 5.92 6.17 6.28

Winter 5.80 5.28 5.51 5.73 5.84

5 Year Outlook

Supply Very SR

Supply SR

Supply LR

P r i c e

Quantity

Supply Very SR

Supply SR

Supply LR

P r i Price c e

Quantity

Supply Very SR

Demand Supply SR

Supply LR

P r i c e

Quantity

Est. Proj. GUESS2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 2018-2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2019

(million acres)Acres Planted 78.9 78.6 80.9 81.8 78.3 93.5 86.0 86.4 88.2 91.9 97.2 95.4 90.9 91.0Acres Harvested 69.3 70.9 73.6 75.1 70.6 86.5 78.6 79.5 81.4 84.0 87.4 87.7 83.1 83.8Yield/Bushels 129.3 142.2 160.4 148 149.1 150.7 153.9 164.7 152.8 147.2 123.4 158.8 174.2 168.0

(million bushels)Beginning Stocks 1596 1087 958 2114 1967 1304 1624 1673 1708 1128 989 821 1236 1400Production 8967 10089 11807 11114 10531 13038 12092 13092 12447 12360 10780 13925 14475 14078Imports 14 14 11 9 12 20 14 8 28 29 160 36 25 25 Total Supply 10578 11190 12776 13237 12510 14362 13729 14774 14182 13517 11929 14782 15736 15503

Use:Feed & Residual 5563 5798 6158 6155 5591 5913 5182 5125 4795 4557 4339 5125 5375 5400Food, Seed & Ind 2340 2537 2686 2981 3490 4387 5025 5961 6426 6428 6039 6504 6530 6540Ethanol for fuel 996 1168 1323 1603 2119 3049 3709 4591 5019 5000 4641 5130 5125 5200Total Domestic 7903 8335 8844 9136 9081 10300 10207 11086 11221 10985 10378 11629 11905 11940Exports 1588 1897 1818 2134 2125 2437 1849 1980 1834 1543 730 1917 1750 2100 Total Use 9491 10232 10662 11270 11206 12737 12056 13066 13055 12528 11108 13546 13655 14040

Ending Stocks 1087 958 2114 1967 1304 1624 1673 1708 1128 989 821 1236 2081 1463Ending Stocks, %of Use 11.5 9.4 19.8 17.5 11.6 12.8 13.9 13.1 8.6 7.9 7.4 9.1 15.2 10.4

U.S. Loan Rate $1.98 $1.98 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95U.S. Season AveFarm Price, $/Bu. $2.32 $2.42 $2.06 $2.00 $3.04 $4.20 $4.06 $3.55 $5.18 $6.22 $6.89 $4.46 $3.40 $4.20

Source: USDA/WASDE and Jim Hilker. (10 - 10 - 14)

SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE SHEET FOR CORN

Hilker's First Cut of Five Year Price Forecast10/28/2014 18:00

14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19CORN FAPRI 3.40 3.74 3.98 4.19 4.20

Implied by Futures 3.30 3.80 4.05 4.10Hilker 3.20 3.70 3.85 4.00 4.20

SOYBEANS FAPRI 9.95 8.93 9.55 10.26 10.50Implied by Futures 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.60

Hilker 9.50 9.00 9.45 9.80 10.25Hilker's Corn Price * 2.4 8.88 9.24 9.60 10.08

Sheet 2 Hilker's Corn Price * 2.5 9.25 9.63 10.00 10.50Hilker's S/C Price ratio 2.43 2.45 2.45 2.44

WHEAT FAPRI 5.88 5.39 5.63 5.87 5.97Durum 7.49 6.34 6.63 6.92 7.04

Other Spring 5.97 5.67 5.92 6.17 6.28Winter 5.80 5.28 5.51 5.73 5.84

Hilker 5.80 5.50 5.70 5.80 5.90

FAPRI14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19

CORN 3.40 3.74 3.98 4.19 4.20SOYBEANS 9.95 8.93 9.55 10.26 10.50WHEAT 5.88 5.39 5.63 5.87 5.97

Durum 7.49 6.34 6.63 6.92 7.04Other Spring 5.97 5.67 5.92 6.17 6.28

Winter 5.80 5.28 5.51 5.73 5.84

Jim Hilker’s Web Page

http://www.msu.edu/user/hilker/

Thanks

Questions/Discussion

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