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Graduated Driver Licensing

National Conference of State Legislatures

May 14, 2009

Stephen Oesch

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Fatal crashes per 100 million milesBy driver age, 2001-02

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IIHS rating systemG F M P

learner’s phase

entry age

holding period

supervised driving certification

intermediate phase

entry age

nighttime driving restriction

passenger restriction

duration of restrictions

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IIHS ratings of graduated licensing lawsJuly 1996, using current rating system

MDDE

DC

MA

OR

RINJ

NH

ME

PA

WV

NC

SC

GA

FL

OH

MI

INIL

WI

IA

MO

LA

NM

CO

SDID

CA

WA

TN

VT

MS

MT ND

NV

AZ

UT

WY

NE

KS

OK

TX

AR

MN

AL

KY VA

NY

CT

AK

HI

2 fair9 marginal

0 good

39 + DC poor

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Strength of graduated licensing programsMay 2009

MDDE

DC

MA

OR

RINJ

NH

ME

PA

WV

NC

SC

GA

FL

OH

MI

INIL

WI

IA

MO

LA

NM

CO

SDID

CA

WA

TN

VT

MS

MT ND

NV

AZ

UT

WY

NE

KS

OK

TX

AR

MN

AL

KY VA

NY

CT

AK

HI

12 fair7 marginal

31 + DC good

0 poor

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Effects of US graduated licensing programs

age groups crash reductions

California 16 23%

Florida 15-17 9%

Michigan 16 29%

North Carolina 16 23%

Ohio 16-17 23%

Wisconsin 16 14%

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Drivers in fatal crashes per 100,000 peopleBy driver age, 1996 vs. 2007

driver age reduction

16 50%

17 32%

18 23%

19 17%

30-59 19%

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New IIHS study on graduated driver licensing

• How has graduated licensing affected fatal crashes of teenage drivers?

• What components are important?

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Percent change in fatal crashes of 15-17 year-olds per population for good, fair, or marginal ratingCompared with poor rating, 1996-2007

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Effects of delaying age of licensurePercent change in fatal crashes of 15-17 year-olds per population, 1996-2007

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Effects of passenger restrictionsPercent change in fatal crashes of 15-17 year-olds per population,compared with allowing 2 or more passengers, 1996-2007

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Effects of nighttime driving restrictionsPercent change in fatal crashes of 15-17 year-olds per population, 1996-2007

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Conclusions

• IIHS ratings of young driver licensing laws line up well with fatal crash experience

• Individual components of laws are beneficial– 1 year licensing age delay, 1 year permit age delay, and

strong nighttime and passenger restrictions on beginning drivers have substantial benefits

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Predicted percent reduction in collision claim frequencies16-17 year-olds, by graduated licensing law rating

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Predicted percent reduction in collision claim frequenciesRated drivers 16-17 years old, by graduated licensing law component

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States with restrictions on riding in the cargo area of pickup trucks

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Video of children riding in pickup cargo area

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