GP workforce predictions: through a glass darkly? Dr. Conor Teljeur Prof. Tom O'Dowd Prof. Fergus...
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Transcript of GP workforce predictions: through a glass darkly? Dr. Conor Teljeur Prof. Tom O'Dowd Prof. Fergus...
![Page 1: GP workforce predictions: through a glass darkly? Dr. Conor Teljeur Prof. Tom O'Dowd Prof. Fergus O’Kelly Dr. Aisling Ní Shúilleabháin Dept. of Public.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062317/5a4d1b407f8b9ab0599a07c2/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
GP workforce predictions: through a glass darkly?
Dr. Conor TeljeurProf. Tom O'DowdProf. Fergus O’KellyDr. Aisling Ní Shúilleabháin
Dept. of Public Health & Primary Care,Trinity College Dublin
AUDGPI, 27th February 2009
![Page 2: GP workforce predictions: through a glass darkly? Dr. Conor Teljeur Prof. Tom O'Dowd Prof. Fergus O’Kelly Dr. Aisling Ní Shúilleabháin Dept. of Public.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062317/5a4d1b407f8b9ab0599a07c2/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Aims of the workshop:
• Estimate numbers of GPs needed to
2021
• To identify interventions that will
address workforce issues
![Page 3: GP workforce predictions: through a glass darkly? Dr. Conor Teljeur Prof. Tom O'Dowd Prof. Fergus O’Kelly Dr. Aisling Ní Shúilleabháin Dept. of Public.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062317/5a4d1b407f8b9ab0599a07c2/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Agenda
• What do we know?
• What do we forecast?
• How might we deal with the issues?
![Page 4: GP workforce predictions: through a glass darkly? Dr. Conor Teljeur Prof. Tom O'Dowd Prof. Fergus O’Kelly Dr. Aisling Ní Shúilleabháin Dept. of Public.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062317/5a4d1b407f8b9ab0599a07c2/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Sources of information
![Page 5: GP workforce predictions: through a glass darkly? Dr. Conor Teljeur Prof. Tom O'Dowd Prof. Fergus O’Kelly Dr. Aisling Ní Shúilleabháin Dept. of Public.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062317/5a4d1b407f8b9ab0599a07c2/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Age profile of GPs
![Page 6: GP workforce predictions: through a glass darkly? Dr. Conor Teljeur Prof. Tom O'Dowd Prof. Fergus O’Kelly Dr. Aisling Ní Shúilleabháin Dept. of Public.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062317/5a4d1b407f8b9ab0599a07c2/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Buttimer Report (2006), recommendation 47:
"the HSE should implement the policy previously adopted by the Department of Health and Children to increase the annual intake of GP Trainees from the current 88 to 150 by 2008."
Training places
![Page 7: GP workforce predictions: through a glass darkly? Dr. Conor Teljeur Prof. Tom O'Dowd Prof. Fergus O’Kelly Dr. Aisling Ní Shúilleabháin Dept. of Public.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062317/5a4d1b407f8b9ab0599a07c2/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
• Approximately 10% of trained GPs do not
practice as GPs – that represents an
investment of ~ €2.3m lost each year
• Intention to retire early:
– 13% intend to retire before 60
– 43% intend to retire before 65
Attrition
![Page 8: GP workforce predictions: through a glass darkly? Dr. Conor Teljeur Prof. Tom O'Dowd Prof. Fergus O’Kelly Dr. Aisling Ní Shúilleabháin Dept. of Public.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062317/5a4d1b407f8b9ab0599a07c2/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Agenda
• What do we know?
• What do we forecast?
• How might we deal with the issues?
![Page 9: GP workforce predictions: through a glass darkly? Dr. Conor Teljeur Prof. Tom O'Dowd Prof. Fergus O’Kelly Dr. Aisling Ní Shúilleabháin Dept. of Public.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062317/5a4d1b407f8b9ab0599a07c2/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
• No change in patient behaviour – that is,
total demand will be in proportion to the
age-sex distribution of the population
• Demography of trainees to remain stable
• Sessions and retirement age of GPs to
remain stable
Assumptions
![Page 10: GP workforce predictions: through a glass darkly? Dr. Conor Teljeur Prof. Tom O'Dowd Prof. Fergus O’Kelly Dr. Aisling Ní Shúilleabháin Dept. of Public.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062317/5a4d1b407f8b9ab0599a07c2/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
GP numbers – demand
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
3,000
3,100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Year
Num
ber o
f GPs
Demand
![Page 11: GP workforce predictions: through a glass darkly? Dr. Conor Teljeur Prof. Tom O'Dowd Prof. Fergus O’Kelly Dr. Aisling Ní Shúilleabháin Dept. of Public.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062317/5a4d1b407f8b9ab0599a07c2/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
GP numbers – fixed intake/120 per annum
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
3,000
3,100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Year
Num
ber o
f GPs
Demand
Stable intake
![Page 12: GP workforce predictions: through a glass darkly? Dr. Conor Teljeur Prof. Tom O'Dowd Prof. Fergus O’Kelly Dr. Aisling Ní Shúilleabháin Dept. of Public.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062317/5a4d1b407f8b9ab0599a07c2/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
GP numbers – reduced drop-out to 5%
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
3,000
3,100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Year
Num
ber o
f GPs
Demand
Stable intake
Stable intake +reduced drop-out
![Page 13: GP workforce predictions: through a glass darkly? Dr. Conor Teljeur Prof. Tom O'Dowd Prof. Fergus O’Kelly Dr. Aisling Ní Shúilleabháin Dept. of Public.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062317/5a4d1b407f8b9ab0599a07c2/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
GP numbers – increase intake to 150 annually
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
3,000
3,100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Year
Num
ber o
f GPs
Demand
Stable intake
Stable intake +reduced drop-out
Increased intake
![Page 14: GP workforce predictions: through a glass darkly? Dr. Conor Teljeur Prof. Tom O'Dowd Prof. Fergus O’Kelly Dr. Aisling Ní Shúilleabháin Dept. of Public.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062317/5a4d1b407f8b9ab0599a07c2/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
GP numbers – increased intake + reduced drop-out
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
3,000
3,100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Year
Num
ber o
f GPs
Demand
Stable intake
Stable intake +reduced drop-out
Increased intake
Increased intake +reduced drop-out
![Page 15: GP workforce predictions: through a glass darkly? Dr. Conor Teljeur Prof. Tom O'Dowd Prof. Fergus O’Kelly Dr. Aisling Ní Shúilleabháin Dept. of Public.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062317/5a4d1b407f8b9ab0599a07c2/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Year
% s
essi
ons
prov
ided
by
trai
nees
existing intake
increased intake
Trainee contribution to sessions
![Page 16: GP workforce predictions: through a glass darkly? Dr. Conor Teljeur Prof. Tom O'Dowd Prof. Fergus O’Kelly Dr. Aisling Ní Shúilleabháin Dept. of Public.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062317/5a4d1b407f8b9ab0599a07c2/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Year
Ratio
of m
ale:
fem
ale
GPs
Ratio of male:female GPs
![Page 17: GP workforce predictions: through a glass darkly? Dr. Conor Teljeur Prof. Tom O'Dowd Prof. Fergus O’Kelly Dr. Aisling Ní Shúilleabháin Dept. of Public.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062317/5a4d1b407f8b9ab0599a07c2/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Impact of M:F ratio on sessions
7
8
9
10
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Year
Ave
rage
ses
sion
s pe
r GP
![Page 18: GP workforce predictions: through a glass darkly? Dr. Conor Teljeur Prof. Tom O'Dowd Prof. Fergus O’Kelly Dr. Aisling Ní Shúilleabháin Dept. of Public.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062317/5a4d1b407f8b9ab0599a07c2/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Agenda
• What do we know?
• What do we forecast?
• How might we deal with the issues?
![Page 19: GP workforce predictions: through a glass darkly? Dr. Conor Teljeur Prof. Tom O'Dowd Prof. Fergus O’Kelly Dr. Aisling Ní Shúilleabháin Dept. of Public.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062317/5a4d1b407f8b9ab0599a07c2/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Options for additional training places
![Page 20: GP workforce predictions: through a glass darkly? Dr. Conor Teljeur Prof. Tom O'Dowd Prof. Fergus O’Kelly Dr. Aisling Ní Shúilleabháin Dept. of Public.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062317/5a4d1b407f8b9ab0599a07c2/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
• Increase role substitution - nurses
• Clinical pharmacy - bigger role
• Recognition of prior hospital experience
• Recruitment from EU & Non EU countries
• Anything else?...
Other options