Government policy and food imports—The case of wheat in Egypt: Scobie, G.M. International Food...

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156 REVIEWS the current situation with reference to a brief historical review. The evidence of pre- colonial travellers suggests that the area was extensively wooded, but they did never- theless note the occurrence of erosion. Since pre-colonial times there appears to have been an almost continuous increase in the demand for cultivated land, coupled with increased grazing requirements, which has led to progressive soil degradation. This degradation was partially halted by the conservation programmes initiated in the 1930s but since their relaxation in the 1960s and 1970s the sediment yields have risen again. Overall, this text thoroughly documents the problems of soil erosion and sedimentation in semi-arid Tanzania by reference to detailed studies in the Ugogo area. The study clearly illustrates the fine balance which occurs between appropriate land use and the acceleration of soil erosion, and suggests that, at present, because of an increasing population and the tendency for the population to be concentrated in villages, rather than dispersed across the area, the trend is towards an increasing rate of erosion. The author highlights the need for action to prevent further degradation. In conclusion, this is a most interesting research study based upon sound field and documentary evidence which provides many examples of the complex environmental balance in the area. STEPHEN NORTCLIFF Scobie, G. M. Government Policy and Food Imports-The Case of Wheat in Egypt. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC, USA, December, 1981. Rising food imports have been a feature of a number of less-developed countries where the main contributory factors have often been rapid population growth,slow growth of domestic food production, an increasing demand for livestock products and a response to world market prices. This study is an attempt to develop an economic model of food imports in order to throw some light on factors influencing such imports. Here the econometric model is applied to the case of Egyptian wheat imports. Egypt, being a major importer of wheat, uses a large part of its foreign exchange (including foreign aid) for this purpose. The results of the study indicate that the country’s capacity to import from foreign exchange and reserves largely determines domestic wheat prices and the domestic pricing policy shelters consumers from the short-run variability in world wheat prices. Because of the food subsidy, the real incomes of poor Egyptians would be drastically affected by a sudden rise in real bread prices which would accompany any reduction in wheat imports. On the other hand, one consequence of the policy of wheat imports is that the imports of other goods have varied more than might otherwise have been desired and that it is probable that output and employment in the non-farm sector have been adversely affected.

Transcript of Government policy and food imports—The case of wheat in Egypt: Scobie, G.M. International Food...

156 REVIEWS

the current situation with reference to a brief historical review. The evidence of pre- colonial travellers suggests that the area was extensively wooded, but they did never- theless note the occurrence of erosion. Since pre-colonial times there appears to have been an almost continuous increase in the demand for cultivated land, coupled with increased grazing requirements, which has led to progressive soil degradation. This degradation was partially halted by the conservation programmes initiated in the 1930s but since their relaxation in the 1960s and 1970s the sediment yields have risen again. Overall, this text thoroughly documents the problems of soil erosion and sedimentation in semi-arid Tanzania by reference to detailed studies in the Ugogo area. The study clearly illustrates the fine balance which occurs between appropriate land use and the acceleration of soil erosion, and suggests that, at present, because of an increasing population and the tendency for the population to be concentrated in villages, rather than dispersed across the area, the trend is towards an increasing rate of erosion. The author highlights the need for action to prevent further degradation. In conclusion, this is a most interesting research study based upon sound field and documentary evidence which provides many examples of the complex environmental balance in the area.

STEPHEN NORTCLIFF

Scobie, G. M. Government Policy and Food Imports-The Case of Wheat in Egypt. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC, USA, December, 1981.

Rising food imports have been a feature of a number of less-developed countries where the main contributory factors have often been rapid population growth,slow growth of domestic food production, an increasing demand for livestock products and a response to world market prices. This study is an attempt to develop an economic model of food imports in order to throw some light on factors influencing such imports. Here the econometric model is applied to the case of Egyptian wheat imports. Egypt, being a major importer of wheat, uses a large part of its foreign exchange (including foreign aid) for this purpose.

The results of the study indicate that the country’s capacity to import from foreign exchange and reserves largely determines domestic wheat prices and the domestic pricing policy shelters consumers from the short-run variability in world wheat prices. Because of the food subsidy, the real incomes of poor Egyptians would be drastically affected by a sudden rise in real bread prices which would accompany any reduction in wheat imports. On the other hand, one consequence of the policy of wheat imports is that the imports of other goods have varied more than might otherwise have been desired and that it is probable that output and employment in the non-farm sector have been adversely affected.

REVIEWS 157

The author points out the limitations of the approach used in this study and suggests that it might be dangerous to generalise the results as they might apply to other less-developed countries.

JOHN PEARCE

Ahmed, R. Agricultural Price Policies under Complex Socio-Economic and Natural Constraints-The Case of Bangladesh. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA, October, 198 1.

In this study the author attempts to unravel the complexities of agricultural price policies by looking at the impact of stable food prices on the use of the inputs in the production of foodgrains and cash crops and on wage income, labour, household food consumption and linked non-agricultural employment. The focus of the study is Bangladesh where agriculture consists of small family farms with fragmented plots under extreme natural restrictions. The study indicates that farmers under these conditions respond rationally to price incentives but the effect on production is not great. Although rice occupies some four-fifths of the total cropped area, the area devoted to jute is important (normally about 7 % of the cropped area), since this crop accounts for about half of the nation’s exports. A policy to tilt prices moderately in favour of jute would be seen to benefit long-term growth of agricultural production and employment in Bangladesh. The study also suggests that price policy measures for agricultural production in Bangladesh should concentrate on developing marketing systems and rural infrastructures, supporting income through rural construction projects and selectively choosing labour- intensive agricultural products for price supports. Another important observation is that the continuous introduction of progressive appropriate technology must be a key factor to enable an optimum response to price incentives.

JOHN PEARCE

Sarma, J. S. Growth and Equity: Policies and Implementation in Indian Agriculture. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA, December, 1981.

In this study the agricultural policies of India from the early 1950s to the late 1970s are examined for their impact on agricultural growth and income disparities and a suggestion for an agricultural strategy to achieve growth with equity is presented. The author recommends a six-point strategy for agricultural develop- ment. Where potential for irrigation exists its development should be accelerated and small farms and areas of little irrigation should be given priority. Small and