Government Finance Statistics Current status and the way forward

Sagé de Clerck

Statistics Department

IMF

Content of Presentation

Stock take – current status of GFS

Update of GFSM 2001 Aligned with 2008 SNA

Harmonization with accounting standards

The way forward

Government Finance Division, IMF Statistics Department 2

March 2010

IMF Executive Board Decision – present fiscal data in the framework of GFSM 2001 in IMF staff reports

Common format for presenting fiscal data Enhance cross-country comparability

Transparent linkage between stocks and flows

Compatible with National Accounts data

Implementation date – starting in May 2011 Except for program countries

Government Finance Division, IMF Statistics Department 3

Data dissemination in GFS Formats

GFS Yearbook Supplemented in 2002

Converted in 2003

Now just over 100 countries report annual data in this format

International Financial Statistics (IFS) Converted for August 2007 issue

Now just over 80 countries have monthly or quarterly data

World Economic Outlook Converted for April 2010 issue

Other IMF publications to follow – best effort basis

Government Finance Division, IMF Statistics Department 4

Impact of the Financial Crisis

“The crisis re-affirmed an old lesson: Good data, good analysis, and effective policy responses are the lifeblood

of surveillance both at the national and international levels”

Quote from FSB and IMF report on data gaps to the G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors

Government Finance Division, IMF Statistics Department 5

Impact of the Financial Crisis (continued)

G-20 Ministers and Central Bank Governors adopted the following recommendations directly related to GFS:

#17 - promote timely and comparable GFS data based on GFSM 2001 framework

#18 - launch public sector debt database

#20 - enhance the Principle Global Indicators website and close data gaps

Board Paper and G-20 Recommendations provide a significant impetus to further enhance fiscal data, using GFSM 2001 framework

Government Finance Division, IMF Statistics Department 6

Public Sector Debt In reaction to recommendation #18

Inter-Agency Task Force on Finance Statistics (TFFS) played an important role

• 9 organizations are members of TFFS

World Bank, in coordination with IMF and TFFS, launched the public sector debt statistics database in December 2010

• http://go.worldbank.org/9PIAZORON0

Public Sector Debt Statistics: Guide for Compilers and Users (PSDSG) was produced by TFFS

Government Finance Division, IMF Statistics Department 7

Position as on February 25, 2010 PSDSG is consistent with 2008 SNA

Draft Guide printed for use at Public Sector Debt Statistics Workshop for G-20 and other large emerging economies

“Pre-publication draft” of Guide scheduled to be published by end March 2011

Editorial review April – June

Final publication late 2011, early 2012

Participated in UNCTAD’s “Train the Trainers” Workshop, Feb 21 – 24, 2011

Draft available on TFFS Website: (end March) http://www.tffs.org/psdstoc.htm

Government Finance Division, IMF Statistics Department 8

Changes in Statistical methodology

Final version of 2008 SNA released in September 2009 by the UN

Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6) adopted by BOPCOM in November 2008

Update of other manuals initiated: GFSM 2001

Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual

Government Finance Division, IMF Statistics Department 9

GFSM 2001 Update

Objective of update Align GFS with 2008 SNA

Improve and clarify, using country experiences

Purpose Update not a revision

Will not re-open debates settled in the update of the SNA

Strategy To follow an international consultative process

• Electronic GFS Discussion Forum • GFS Advisory Committee

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GFS Discussion Forum

Forum was created in November 2010 http://forums.imf.org/gfsm/forum.php

Outline update issues: Methodological changes resulting from the 2008 SNA

Corrections/omissions in GFSM 2001

Presentational issues and clarifications

Discussion papers were posted for comments Methodological topics included social security, consolidation, public sector, cyclical adjusted balances, contingencies, etc.

Government Finance Division, IMF Statistics Department 11

GFS Advisory Committee

Meeting held in February 2011 Endorsed the mandate to conceptually align with 2008 SNA as far as possible

• Where full alignment is not possible – justify the difference and indicate how to reconcile

Extend guidance to include the public sector

Expand guidance on debt statistics and contingencies referenced to the Public Sector Debt Statistics Guide

Provide more nuanced guidance on consolidation (also regional perspective)

Clarify treatment of social protection

Clarify linkages between statistics and accounting, including an example SCOA, and provide guidance on reconciliation

Government Finance Division, IMF Statistics Department 12

GFS Advisory Committee (continued)

Clarify statistical treatment of natural resources and environment-related issues

Discussed GFS Compilation issues GFS Compilation Guide for Developing Countries

• Circulated for comments to volunteer members

Develop a common GFS template to facilitate international data exchange and reporting – should coordinate efforts to reduce reporting burden

• Initiative is part of the work program of the Inter-Agency Group on Economic and Financial Statistics (BIS, ECB, Eurostat, IMF, OECD, UN, WB)

Continue work on government maps

Government Finance Division, IMF Statistics Department 13

Maps of Governments

• Institutional Maps: The case of Australia

(Central Government)

Local Government: Approximately 900 cities, district councils, municipalities, shires, and towns.

State Government: 8 state governments

(Budgetary Central Government): Agencies, departments, governor general’s office, judiciary, and parliament.

Social Security Funds: Not applicable

Extra-budgetary units/accounts: Government agencies, 6 government commissions, 3 government corporations, health insurance commission, and 2 national universities.

(General Government)

Source: Government Finance Statistics Yearbook 2009

Maps of Governments

• Key Fiscal Indicators for Australia

Revenue/1 Expenditure/1/2 Tax effort/3

Compensation of employees

General Government 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Local Government 5.6 6.9 2.9 8.2

State Government 20.4 40.2 15.3 64.5

Central Government 74.0 52.9 81.8 27.4

Social Security Funds n/a n/a n/a n/a

Extrabudgetary Units .... .... .... ....

Budgetary Central Gov .... .... .... ....

1. Revenue/expenditure excludes grants received from/paid to other government units. 2. Expenditure consists of expense and net acquisition of nonfinancial assets. 3. Tax effort consists of revenue from taxes and social contributions. 4. Data are included in budgetary central government.

Source: Government Finance Statistics Yearbook 2009

GFSM 2001 Update Timeline

Commenced work on draft chapters

Post draft – End 2011/Early 2012

Have a final version available – Mid 2012

Ambitious program Limited mandate

PSDSG is front runner

Research agenda

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The way forward …

Continue technical assistance to support member countries

Continue to provide several training opportunities – courses, workshops and seminars

Headquarter based

Regional

Invite consultation/participation through the electronic GFS Discussion Forum

Appreciate all opportunities to collaborate with other international organizations and member countries

Government Finance Division, IMF Statistics Department 17