goodrich MasterJefferiesConfFinal

33
Marshall Larsen Chairman, President and CEO Jefferies Quarterdeck Aerospace Defense and IT Services Conference December 3, 2003

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Transcript of goodrich MasterJefferiesConfFinal

Page 1: goodrich  MasterJefferiesConfFinal

Marshall Larsen

Chairman, President and CEO

Jefferies Quarterdeck

Aerospace Defense and IT Services Conference

December 3, 2003

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Certain statements made in the following presentations are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 regarding the Company's future plans, objectives, and expected performance. The Company cautions readers that any such forward-looking statements are based on assumptions that the Company believes are reasonable, but are subject to a wide range of risks, and actual results may differ materially.

Important factors that could cause actual results to differ include, but are not limited to, the extent to which the Company is successful in integrating the Aeronautical Systems businesses and achieving operating synergies; the nature, and extent and timing of the Company’s proposed restructuring and consolidation actions and the extent to which the Company is able to achieve savings from these actions, as well as other factors discussed in the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including in the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2002.

The Company cautions you not to place undue reliance on the forward-looking statements contained in these presentations, which speak only as of the date on which such statements were made. The Company undertakes no obligation to release publicly any revisions to these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date on which such statements were made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.

Forward Looking Statements

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Company Overview - Goodrich

One of the largest worldwide aerospace suppliersBroadest portfolio of products in industryProprietary, flight critical productsOperating history of over 130 years with recent repositioning as focused aerospace supplierMore than 20,000 employees in facilities throughout the world

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Goodrich – A Global Franchise

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Goodrich Today

Aerospace Focus - Leadership Positions - Global Presence - Broad Systems Capability - Highly Engineered Products

Landing GearWheels & BrakesActuationCustomer ServicesAirframe Technical ServiceEPP

AerostructuresTurbine Fuel TechnologiesEngine ControlsTurbo Machinery ProductsCargo Management Systems

SensorsFuel and UtilityOptical and SpaceLightingDe-IcingPowerInterior ProductsPropulsion Products

Goodrich

AirframeJohn Grisik

EngineJack Carmola

ElectronicsCindy Egnotovich

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Goodrich Today

Aerospace Focus - Leadership Positions - Global Presence - Broad Systems Capability - Highly Engineered Products

Goodrich participates in all major aerospace market segments

Large Commercial AircraftAftermarket

25%Regional, Business & General AviationOE & Aftermarket

12%

Boeing Commercial OE

9%

Airbus Commercial OE

15%

Military & Space, OE & Aftermarket

30%

IGT & Other

6%

Heavy AirframeMaintenance

3%

1st Nine Months 2003 Sales - $3,253 M

OE

AM

OE

AM

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Sales by Market Channel – 1999 – 2003E

Military and Space

Large Cmcl. Aircraft

Aftermarket

Regional, Business & G.A.

Boeing OE

Airbus OE

Other

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003E

Significantly decreased dependence on Commercial OE

(Percentage of Total)

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Goodrich Today

$4B$10B$7B$13BAerospace Sales

#1Sensors

#1Cargo Systems

APUs

#2Wheel/Brakes#1Evacuation Systems

#2Lighting

Space Systems

#1Landing Gear

Environmental Controls#1Flight Ctrl/Actuation#1Electronic Controls

Avionics

#2Power GenerationEngines

#1Nacelles

GoodrichHONSNECMAUTC

Aerospace Focus - Leadership Positions - Global Presence - Broad Systems Capability - Highly Engineered Products

Goodrich has the broadest portfolio of system leadership positions

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Agenda

Market Summary

Aerospace Strategy

2003 and 2004 Outlook

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Commercial OE

Balanced duopoly

Airbus gaining on Boeing

Market flat near term

Recovery begins in 2005-2006

Active Commercial Fleet 2003

3,29611,436

Active Commercial Fleet 2012

6,26312,160

Source: Airline Monitor

BoeingAirbus

Boeing Airbus

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Est

.

AirbusBoeing

Air

plan

e D

eliv

erie

s

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Commercial OE - Airbus

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

aged less than 5 yrs aged 5 yrs or greater

CAGR of 14.2% for

aged 5 yrs or greater

Nu

mbe

r of

Pla

nes

Airbus fleet aging drives aftermarket growth for suppliers

Fleet Aging

Source: GR Estimates

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Regional Jets

Airlines eliminating scope clauses

Encroaching on Large Commercial model sizes

Embraer and Bombardier primary suppliers

New Chinese and Russian market entrants

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

100

200

300

Regional Jet DeliveriesBombardier Embraer

Large RJ’s Continue to Gain Share (19-100 Seat A/C)

'93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12$0

$2

$4

$6

$8(Deliveries in $ Billions)

Props 30/50-seat Jets 60/100-seat JetsSource: GR Estimates

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Regional Jets

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

aged less than 5 yrs aged 5 yrs or greater

Num

ber

of P

lane

s

CAGR of 28.2% for

aged 5 yrs or greater

RJ fleet aging drives aftermarket growth for suppliers

Fleet Aging

Source: GR Estimates

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Aftermarket

0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%

10%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

ASM, RPM Forecast (yr/yr) - Airline Monitor, GR Est.

RPM ASMDriven by ASMs, fleet size & GDP

2004 expected to recover slightly

Airline inventory management

Above average growth rates possible over next several years

2003 Global MRO Market ($B)

19%

23%

29%

29%

Airframe Engines Components Line Maintenenace

CAGR (’03-’08) = 4.2%

Source: Back Aviation

Uncertainty remains in near-term aftermarket forecasts

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Military & Space

Market is global New fighters driving growthIntelligence, Transports and Rotorcraft Markets growingTransformational spending underway Growth opportunity

0

40

80

120

160

200

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

US Defense Spending ($B)

Procurement & RDT&E Intelligence

Military Transports

'93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '120

20

40

60

80(Units Delivered)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6(Market Value in '03$ Billions)

Units ValueSource: Teal Group

'93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '120

20

40

60

80(Units Delivered)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6(Market Value in '03$ Billions)

Units ValueSource: Teal Group

'93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '120

200

400

600

800

1,000

0

2

4

6

8

Source: Teal GroupUnits Value

The World Rotorcraft Market

'93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '120

200

400

600

800

1,000

0

2

4

6

8

Source: Teal GroupUnits Value

World Fighter Market

'93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '120

100

200

300

400

500(Units Delivered)

0

5

10

15

(Market Value in '03$Bns)

Source: Teal Group

'93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '120

100

200

300

400

500(Units Delivered)

0

5

10

15

(Market Value in '03$Bns)

Source: Teal Group

(Units Delivered) (Market Value in '03$ Billions)(Units Delivered) (Market Value in '03$ Billions)

Source: Teal GroupUnits Value Source: Teal GroupUnits Value

Source: DoD

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Market Summary

Commercial aerospace OE market is at bottom but recovery projected in 2005-2006

Airbus gaining market parity with Boeing

Low cost carriers winning market share

Commercial aftermarket expected to recover slightly in 2004, higher growth in 2005 and beyond

Stable regional jet deliveries; rapidly growing aftermarket

Military market continues to present growth opportunities

Significant opportunity for growth over the cycle

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Agenda

Market Summary

Aerospace Strategy

2003 and 2004 Outlook

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Building Goodrich Aerospace

Operational Excellence

• Aerospace brand• Efficiency• Quality• Culture

Niche Player(Sales= $200 M)

Consolidator

• Lean• Integration of acquisitions• Exploit synergies

• Acquirer / survivor• Assemble system platforms• Attractive niche positions

Grow(Sales $1-2 B)

Innovator

• Innovation training • Alliances • Customer relationship management• E-commerce/SCM• Talent

• Differentiate • Commercialize technology• Export technology• Exploit technology

• Opportunistic deals• Strategic bolt-ons• New platforms (space)• Acquire technology

Build PlatformsAchieve Critical Mass

(Sales=$4 B)

Sales

1985 20001990 1995

Goodrich has grown from a niche player to an industry leader

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Goodrich Strategic Imperatives

Balanced GrowthFaster than the overall marketWin key positions on new aircraft (e.g. 7E7)Migrate commercial products/technologies to military applicationsPenetrate adjacent markets

Leverage the EnterpriseResource allocationTechnology/InnovationEnterprise-wide initiativesCustomer alignment/focus

Operational ExcellenceIntegrate Aeronautical SystemsLean manufacturing/Six SigmaMake/Buy analysis

Successful implementation will enable Goodrich to compete/win in all business environments

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Enterprise-wide Initiatives

Supply Chain ManagementInformation TechnologyHuman ResourcesContinuous Process Improvement

Lean ManufacturingSix Sigma

New Product Design/Build ProcessesIncentive Compensation Alignment

Enterprise-wide initiatives significantly improve alignment across segments

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Goodrich Strategic Initiatives

Successful implementation is expected to result in:

Continued cost competitivenessOrganic Growth above market trendsSignificant improvement in segment operating marginsContinued strong cash flowSustainable value creation

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New Programs Will Accelerate Future Growth

*Total estimated sales over life of program** Year in which significant sales are expected to begin

C-5 Re-Engine

Universal Control Program

A380 ProgramJoint Strike

Fighter

$6 Billion+*2005**

$0.8 Billion+*2004**

$5 Billion+*2006**

$0.5 Billion+*2005**

Commercial Military

CF34-10 Nacelle System

$1.4 Billion+*2005**

Cockpit Door Video Surveillance System

$0.1 Billion+*2003**

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$0$50

$100$150$200$250$300$350$400$450$500

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Annual Expected Future Sales for:• A380 Program• CF34-10 Nacelle System• JSF Program• C-5 Re-engine Program• Cockpit Door Video Surveillance System• Universal Control Program

Expected Future Sales from New Programs

New program sales are incremental to sales growth from existing in-production platform positions

Dollars in Millions

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Agenda

Market Summary

Aerospace Strategy

2003 and 2004 Outlook

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2003 Financial Outlook

$0.52($0.07)Discontinued operations

$0.33 - $0.43$1.55Continuing operations

$0.85 - $0.95 $1.14Diluted E.P.S. – Net Income

--($0.34)Cumulative effect of change in accounting

> $450M$524MCash flow from Operations

Diluted earnings (loss) per share

($50 - $60M)($52M)Including: Cash outflow for facility closures and headcount reductions

($120 - $140M)

$4.3 - $4.4B(around mid-point)

2003 Outlook

($106M)Capital Expenditures

$3.8BSales

Actual 2002

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2004 Outlook Assumptions

RecoveringAirline

Profitability

Global ASMGrowth 3-5%

No New Market

Disruption(Terrorism, SARS)

Stable/SmallIncrease in

Interest Rates7E7 Launch

Late 03/Early 04

GRMacro

Assumptions

RecoveringGlobal

Economy

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2004 Sales & Margin Expectations

Sales Growth Expectations Margin Considerations

Restructuring benefitsImproving AS resultsImproving mix with Aftermarket growthProductivity initiativesA380 development costs peak in 2003; 7E7 offset??Continued pricing pressurePension costs flat vs. 2003

FlatIGT/Other9%

~ 10%(Similar to

2003)

Military & Space (Total)

30%

3-5%Aftermarket (Comm & Regnl)

32%

FlatRegional, Business & GA OE

5%

2004 Market Growth

MarketGoodrich

2003 YTDSales Mix

Slight decline

Boeing/Airbus OE24%

Expect Low Single DigitGrowth for GR

Expect Margin ExpansionBeyond Sales Growth

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2004 Summary

Low single digit revenue growthMargin expansion$20-25 Million headwind in selected areasCapital expenditures increase over 2003(new programs, productivity, cost reduction)

Cash flow from operations less capital expenditures should exceed net incomeSeveral unknowns cloud outlook

Expect to Issue Formal GuidanceWith Year End Earnings Release

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Near Term Risks & Opportunities

A380 peaks in 2003/limited technical risk7E7 investment/timing uncertainNew Program Investments

Organizational transition completeMajor headcount reductions completeMost SBU’s profitableStrong purchase contract

AS Execution/Integration

Large cash balancesNew revolverNo current debt maturitiesPositive net cash flow last 10 Qtrs

Liquidity/Capital Markets

Capacity downsizing near completionLong term cost reduction focusEnterprise initiativesPortfolio balance

Slower Commercial Market RecoveryEvent risk

Risks GR Positioning

Manageable Risks

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Near Term Risks & Opportunities

Supply chain management($2B annual spend)

Shared services

Enterprise Initiative Savings

Working capital reductionsFurther portfolio pruningAccelerate debt retirement

Higher Cash Generation

Capacity in placeSubstantial upside leverageAirline/OE outsourcing

Faster Commercial Recovery

Opportunities GR Positioning

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Summary - Goodrich Attributes and Actions

Top tier aerospace supplier

Diversified, balanced business mix

Proprietary, flight critical products

Strong cash flow

Taking aggressive actions to align cost structure with current demand

Experience managing operations in challenging markets

Focused on Aeronautical Systems integration and turnaround

Committed to maintaining a conservative financial profile and investment grade ratings

All future reporting and outlook to be only on a GAAP basis

Focused on what we can control

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What Investors Should Expect from Goodrich

Continued commitment to integrityTransparency of financial results and disclosureNo significant acquisitionsReduce leverage to target levelsFocused on the business• “Blocking and Tackling”

- Cash flow- Margin improvement- Aeronautical Systems integration- Working capital management

• New product development- Continue investing in new products and systems

Accountable to all stakeholders

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Jefferies Quarterdeck

Aerospace Defense and IT Services Conference

December 3, 2003

Questions and Answers