Good Enough is No Longer Good Enough
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Good Enough Is No Longer Good Enough: The New Reality of Economic Development and Its Impact on the Dan River Region
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Transcript of Good Enough is No Longer Good Enough
Good Enough Is No Longer Good Enough: The New Reality of Economic Development
and Its Impact on the Dan River Region
Understanding and Using Change to Chart a Different Future for the Dan River Region
Economic Leadership’s task“to review existing economic development
plans and to develop a global trends analysis for the region.”
“Everyone has a plan ‘till they get hit in the mouth”
Mike Tyson
Economic Leadership LLC Competitiveness Process6
Establishing a Common
Current Reality
Envisioning a Common
Future Desire
Direction, or Compass is driven by the Vision, Mission and Core Values of the organization, place, or business
Context examines relative assets and converts comparative and longitudinal information to determine realistic options
Change is the group of factors, outside your control, that influences your future, global trends, demographic shifts, changing technology
Goals
Objectives
Actions
Action Plan Matrix• What actions will we undertake?• Who will be responsible for those actions?• What resources do we need to be successful?• Where will those resources come from?• When will each action start and be
completed?• What results do we expect?
Strategic Execution
Reality Filters
Compass
Context
Change
Control
Impact
Resources
Time
Action Choice Filters
History and Inertia
AssessmentAdjustment
Metrics and Measurements(Balanced Scorecard)
Communications
Constant Learning Expectation
(Learning Community or Company)
Action Choices
ResearchAssessments
SurveysExternal Input
Leadership
Information Stage Choice Stage Action Stage
Trends• Economic and Business Trends
• Workforce Trends
• Technological Trends
• Demographic and Societal Trends
Economic and Business Trends
Economic and Business Trends
Competition
Top Factors for Companies Considering New Investment
1) Highway accessibility2) Occupancy or construction costs3) Available land4) Availability buildings5) Availability of skilled labor6) Labor costs7) Right-to-work state8) Proximity to major markets9) Energy availability and costs10) Corporate tax rate11) Tax exemptions12) State & Local Incentives
Source: Area Development 29th Annual Survey of Corporate Executives, March 2015
Top Quality of Life Factors for Companies Considering New Investment 1) Low crime rate
2) Ratings of public schools
3) Health care facilities
4) Housing availability
5) Housing costs
6) Colleges & universities in the area
7) Recreational opportunities
8) Cultural 0pportunities
9) Climate
Source: Area Development 29th Annual Survey of Corporate Executives, March 2015
United States
Southern States 1-Year Employment Changes January 2014 to January 2015
1.8%
2.3%
3.6%
3.2%
2.2%
1.3%1.5% 1.6%
0.8%
2.6%
1.5%
2.7% 2.6%
3.5%
0.7%
0.4%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV
Source: U.S. BLS, March, 2015 Measured Jan 2014- Jan 2015
Southern States 1-Year Manufacturing Employment Changes Jan 2014 to Jan 2015
0.7%
1.8%
0.8%
3.6%3.9%
2.5%
-1.3%
5.0%
0.1%
3.1%
2.1% 1.9%
3.1%
1.9%
0.8%
0.2%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV
Source: U.S. BLS, March, 2015 Measured Jan 2014- Jan 2015
Urbanization
Source: Atlantic Cities, March 28, 2014
Half of the US Population Lives in these 146 Counties
SOURCE: BUSINESS INSIDER 2013 WALTER HICKEY AND JOE WEISENTHAL
Source: National Employment Law Project, 2014
Growth in Business &
Professional Services, Health,
Education and low wage service jobs
Other Economy & Business Trends
• Globalization
• The rise of e-commerce
• 24/7/365 operations
• Home-grown, locally sourced
• Consumer influence of branding
• Sharing economy
• Re-invention of healthcare
• Real estate shifts
Workforce Trends
The Rising Talent Bar
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Source: The Motley Fool, Morgan House, March 2014
Southern States- % Proficient 8th Grade Math
34%
20%
29% 28% 28%
31%
22%
40%
32%
19%
37%
27%
32%
24%
40% 40%
21%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
USA AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV
http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind14/
Top Skills Employers Say They Want (2014)
1. Ability to work in a team
2. Ability to make decisions and solve problems
3. Ability to plan, organize and prioritize work
4. Ability to communicate verbally
5. Ability to obtain and process information
6. Ability to analyze quantitative data
7. Technical knowledge related to the job
8. Proficiency with computer software programs
9. Ability to create and/or edit written reports
10. Ability to sell and influence people
Source: National Association of Colleges and Employers
Rankings of Employee Skills from Most Important to Least Important
Under $12 per hour $12-20 per Hour Over $20 per hourHonesty/Integrity Honesty/Integrity Honesty/IntegrityDependability/Responsibility Dependability/Responsibility Dependability/ResponsibilityPositive Attitude/Energy Positive Attitude/Energy Positive Attitude/EnergyWork Ethic Work Ethic Work EthicCustomer Service Teamwork TeamworkTeamwork Customer Service Problem SolvingProfessionalism Professionalism Verbal CommunicationVerbal Communication Verbal Communication Professionalism
Source: Economic Leadership Survey of 122 business for Durham NC, 2014
Durham Demand-Driven Workforce Development
Job Specific Skills
(Such as construction
trades, coding, or customer service)
Life Skills
(Such as honesty,
dependability, teamwork
and, positive attitude)
Work Skills
(Such as communication
problem solving, and
critical thinking)
• MOOCs• Virtual High
School• Digital
gaming content (competency based)
• Ubiquitous learning content
Corporate Domestic Outsourcing
"1 in 3 Americans, or roughly 42 million people, are now freelancers. That's one-third of the U.S. workforce. The group counts individuals who work in nontraditional, impermanent jobs, including part-time employees and independent contractors, as part of the independent workforce. "
Source: Elaine Pofeldt,
CNBC.com
Other Workforce Trends
• Multigenerational workplaces
• Slow “prime” labor force growth
• Lifelong self-learning
Technology Trends
McKinsey & CompanyDisruptive Technologies: May 2013
Energy Mobile Internet
Advanced Materials Next Generation Genomics
Robotics, Cloud, Digital-intel, 3D Printing
Source: Business Insider, The Economist, 2014
Technology Trends
• Remote entertainment
• Electronic medicine
• Crowd-capitalization
• Application globalization
• Education gamification
Source: Business Insider
Demographic and Societal
Trends
The Changing Face of America1960-2060
Source: The Next America, Paul Taylor
Source: The Motley Fool, Morgan House, March 2014
Demographic and Societal
Trends
Millennials-75% of the workforce in 10 years
Foreign born-82% of population growth between now & 2050
Demographic and Societal
Trends
Education separation-college degree-3/4 of top income quartile-, 1/10 of bottom income quartileDemographic
and Societal Trends
Fewer children-in 1960, 3.7 children, today 1.9
Demographic and Societal
Trends
Current Economic Reality
Change of Ages 25 to 44 for DRF and Counties
2000 2010 Percent Change
Danville 12,335 9,375 -24%
Pittsylvania 17,765 14,517 -18%
Caswell 7,082 5,692 -20%
DRF 37,182 29,584 -20%
Virginia 2,237,655 2,199,347 -2%
North Carolina 2,500,535 2,573,744 3%Population Change of Ages 25 to 44 for DRF and CountiesSource: US Census Bureau
Population Change of Ages 25 to 44 for DRF and Peer Regions 2000-2010
-25.0% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0%
DRF
Hickory, NC
Wilson, NC
Harrisonburg, VA
Florence, SC
Annual Wages for DRF and Counties, 2013
Danville Pittsylvania Caswell DRF Virginia North Carolina
All Industries $33,163 $30,019 $29,179 $30,841 $51,923 $43,789
Private Sector $32,837 $29,872 $27,381 $30,351 $51,665 $43,758
Goods
producing $49,998 $38,244 $36,251 $41,519 $51,608 $50,607
Service
Providing $28,130 $24,888 $23,810 $25,699 $51,675 $42,080
Average Annual Wages for DRF and Counties, 2013Source: Bureau of Labor & Statistics
Dan River Region Leadership Input and Current Local Thinking
Focus Groups with Selected Local Leaders
• Future of the Piedmont
• Middle Border Forward
• Young Professionals Group
Common Themes
Attitude, Vision, Leadership, Race, Communication, The Economy, Education & Training
Dan River Region Leadership Input and Current Local Thinking
• Need to articulate an alternative vision for the future
• Lack of leadership- as a barrier to improvement
• Lack of inclusion of young professionals or minorities into decisions
• Still a lot of work to do to bridge race divides exacerbated by economic divides
Dan River Region Leadership Input and Current Local Thinking
The Economy More positive comments and seemed to energize the conversations.
– The River District investments are growing and successful – Entrepreneurship is growing and seems to have found some niche
success– Strong broadband infrastructure– Low cost of living and a low cost of doing business– Agriculture is still important – Great natural beauty, attractive to tourists and retirees– Pride in their public art– The river
Dan River Region Leadership Input and Current Local Thinking
The Economy On the negative side people mentioned:• There are very few mid-level jobs, especially white
collar, non-government jobs • The loss of young people, especially educated young
professionals is a major problem• The city and the university are geographically
separated• There is still 4 million square feet of vacant space along
the river (an opportunity and a constant reminder of so much more to do)
Dan River Region Leadership Input and Current Local Thinking
• Wide agreement that no matter what else is done, that everyone needed to focus on raising the skill level of young people and the workforce
Recent Reports• CFED , A Community and Economic Development Assessment of
the Danville Region (2007)• UNC Chapel Hill's Urban Investment Strategies Center, Kenan
Institute, and Kenan-Flagler Business School authored Assessing the Economic Competitiveness of the Danville, Virginia Region (2008)
• SRI, working for the Virginia Economic Development Partnership, completed a Target Market Assessment for Western Southern Virginia (SOVA) ,(2010)
• Southern Virginia, Building a Competitive Advantage, prepared by Civic Change Incorporated, (2010)
• The Virginia Economic Development Partnership Western SOVA -Brief Assessment of Regional Assets and Targeted Industries (2010)
• Vanessa Garber and Jamie Gutter of UNC examined AttractingYoung Entrepreneurs to Danville (2010)
• Entrepreneurial Places LLC looked at Retiree Attraction in the Danville Region (2013).
• MDC’s The Only Way Out Is Up, How MDC helped Danville, VA., chart a new vision for its future (2013)
Recent Reports- Common Themes • The Dan River Region needs to shed its old manufacturing image, focus
on a new future and intentionally create a new image internally and externally
• To attract the people and companies that are needed for a brighter future, investments in creating a better place to live and work are mandatory
• Downtown reinvention is necessary to attract and retain younger and more educated people
• For current regional citizens to prosper in the changing economy their skills and educational attainment must be improved
• Entrepreneurial attraction and development is a priority for future job growth
• A regional approach to economic development could yield better results• A collaborative approach among public and private entities would yield
better results• Leadership diversification, support and engagement are imperative
Our Additional Recommendations
1) Build the infrastructure to excite, inform, engage and diversify regional leadership
• a more consistent and formal effort to understand, anticipate and react to the future is needed
• begin a formalized multi-year effort to incorporate future thinking into leadership development.
• position the region through an annual event as the home of future thinking for micropolitan regions that must reinvent themselves
• Increased efforts to identify, educate, mentor, support and empower young leaders.
• A specific program to engage older and younger, white and minority, and urban and city leaders together
• DRF should take the lead in identifying, digesting and presenting relevant information
• We want someone, or some group, we trust, to make sense of all the information we are receiving.
• We want leaders to take actions that improves our situations or solves our problems
Why Do We Want and Need Leadership?
“Good business leaders create a vision, articulate the vision, passionately own the vision, and relentlessly
drive it to completion.”
Jack Welch
Collaboration“The act of working with one or
more people to produce or create something.”
Collaboration is an unnatural act between
un-consenting adults
What is a Commitment to Collaborate?
What is a Commitment to Collaborate?
Recommendations
2) Define a new vision and declare intentional strategic actions for economic & workforce development
• the DRF take the lead to initiate and fund the development of a regional vision and a comprehensive, collaborative strategic action agenda
(a new 5-year comprehensive, multi-organization, regional, public-private economic and workforce development strategic action plan with delineated responsibilities and outcome expectations.)
Recommendations
3) Maximize the opportunities that change is creating
• Buy local
• Demise of distance
• Retiree entrepreneurship
• Freelance economy
Summary• Doing what you used to do, no matter how well you
do it, will not work.
• Many trends are working against you, but some may be beginning to work for you
• The key to a better future is strong, informed, diverse, leadership, collaboration, a new clear vision, and the will and capacity to implement.
• Building a place that can attract talent and money, improving the education and skills of local residents, and multiple economic development strategies
So What!
Follow on twitter @tedabernathy or LinkedIn Ted Abernathy
