Gonzales Maryland Poll - Amazon Web Services · Gonzales Maryland Poll 9 | P a g e Part 1 -...

March 2020

Gonzales Poll

Gonzales Maryland Poll


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Part 1 - Embargoed until 12:01 a.m., Thursday, March 5th, 2020

Table of Contents

Background and Methodology ............................................................................................ 3

Synopsis ............................................................................................................................... 4

Gonzales January 2020 Poll Results .................................................................................. 5

Appendix A: Data Tables ................................................................................................... 11

QUESTION 1: Number One Issue in Maryland ....................................................... 11

QUESTION 2: Trump Job Approval ....................................................................... 14

QUESTION 3: Hogan Job Approval ....................................................................... 16

QUESTION 4: Trump Economy Job Approval ...................................................... 18

QUESTION 5: Direction of State ............................................................................ 21

QUESTION 6: Sanctuary State ............................................................................... 23

Appendix B: Maryland Poll Sample Demographics ......................................................... 25

Region Classifications ............................................................................................. 26


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Background and Methodology

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated magna cum laude from the University of

Baltimore with a degree in political science.

His career in the field of public opinion research began in the mid-1980s as an

analyst with Mason-Dixon Opinion Research. During this time, Mr. Gonzales

helped develop, craft and implement election surveys and exit polls for

television and radio in the Baltimore-Washington D.C. metro area.

Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed well over a thousand elections in

Maryland and across the country since that time. Furthermore, he and his

associates have conducted numerous market research projects, crafting

message development plans and generating strategy blueprints for businesses

and organizations throughout the state.

Over his 35 years conducting public opinion polls, Patrick Gonzales has been

widely recognized by his peers for his ability to conduct unbiased surveys, and

analyze the results in an impartial, evenhanded manner.

Mr. Gonzales frequently appears on radio and television in the Baltimore-D.C.

region as a guest commentator.

Elizabeth Gonzales Byers has joined Gonzales Research as Director of Marking

and Social Media. She can be contacted at [email protected]

This poll was conducted by Gonzales Research & Media Services from

February 22nd through February 28th, 2020. A total of 827 registered voters in

Maryland, who indicated that they are likely to vote in the 2020 general election,

were queried by live telephone interviews, utilizing both landline (36%) and cell

phone (64%) numbers. A cross-section of interviews was conducted throughout

the state, reflecting general election voting patterns.

The margin of error (MOE), per accepted statistical standards, is a range of plus

or minus 3.5 percentage points. If the entire population was surveyed, there is

a 95% probability that the true numbers would fall within this range.


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Synopsis

The China Syndrome has hit Maryland. Forty years ago, this was a fanciful

phrase used in a movie title to convey the fictional result of a nuclear meltdown,

and the accompanying fear. Today, it refers to the peculiar infection - known

as coronavirus - which is believed to have started in a “wet market” in Wuhan,

China and escaped its borders, and which is currently causing widespread

concern here in this country.

Crime, at 24%, remains the number one issue, but apprehension over the

coronavirus has triggered healthcare to more than triple to 17% as the #1 issue

for Maryland voters over the past 2 months. Crime and healthcare are followed

by education (12%), taxes (11%), corruption (9%), and the environment (8%).

Donald Trump’s job approval in blue Maryland has seen a slight uptick, but

remains low; 42%% approve of the job Trump is doing, while 55% disapprove

of the job he is doing as president.

Governor Larry Hogan’s imposing job approval numbers persist: 70% approve

of the job Hogan is doing as governor, while 21% disapprove, with 9% giving no

response.

Statewide, 53% think things in Maryland are moving in the right direction,

while 33% say that things are moving in the wrong direction, with 14% of voters

here offering no opinion.

The proposition being bandied between some to codify Maryland as a sanctuary

state meets much greater resistance among voters across the Old Line State

than it seems to in the halls of Annapolis.

Statewide, only 33% of voters support making Maryland a sanctuary state (18%

“strongly support” and 15% “somewhat support”), while 52% oppose making

Maryland a sanctuary state…44% strongly oppose.

Ninety percent of Republicans and 60% of independent voters oppose making

Maryland a sanctuary state.

Fifty- five percent of African Americans support making Maryland a sanctuary

state.


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Gonzales January 2020 Poll Results

Number One Issue In Maryland

Statewide, crime remains the number one issue for Free State voters at 24%, but

anxiety, real and imagined, over the coronavirus has puffed up healthcare 12 points

from our January poll, and catapulted it into 2nd place at 17%.

Theses top 2 issues are followed by education at 12%, taxes at 11%, corruption at 9%,

and the environment (8%), with other issues receiving five percent or less mention.

The top 3 issues by party:

Party #1 Issue #2 Issue #3 Issue

Democrat Crime (24%) Healthcare (20%) Education (17%) Republican Crime (24%) Taxes (23%) Immigration (17%) Independent Crime (21%) Taxes (20%) Healthcare (15%)


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President Donald Trump

President Donald Trump’s job approval in Maryland, while still gloomy, is up slightly

since the beginning of the year. Statewide, 42%% approve (up 5 points) of the job

Trump is doing as president (33% “strongly approve” and 9% “somewhat approve”),

while 55% disapprove of the job he is doing as president (52% “strongly disapprove” and

3% “somewhat disapprove”), with 3% giving no response.

Trump Job Rating by party, gender, age, and race:

Trump Job Rating Approve Disapprove

Democrat 16% 81% Republican 93% 6% Unaffiliated 39% 55%

Women 37% 60% Men 47% 50%

Under 50 36% 60% 50 and older 46% 51%

African-American 9% 84% White 55% 44%

Trump Job Approval


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Trump Economy

President Trump does not see the same bounce in Maryland as in other states when

voters are asked to rate his handling of the economy and jobs. Statewide, 45%%

approve of his handling of the economy (33% “strongly approve” and 12% “somewhat

approve”), while 52% disapprove of his handling of the economy and jobs (41% “strongly

disapprove” and 11% “somewhat disapprove”).

Trump Economy by party, gender, age, and race:

Trump Economy Rating Approve Disapprove


Women 41% 55% Men 49% 49%

Under 50 40% 56% 50 and older 49% 49%


Trump Economy Approval


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Governor Larry Hogan

Governor Larry Hogan’s commanding job approval numbers endure.

Among Maryland voters, 70% approve of the job Hogan is doing as governor (39%

“strongly approve” and 31% “somewhat approve”), while 21% disapprove of the job he is

doing as governor (6% “strongly disapprove” and 15% “somewhat disapprove”), with 9%

tendering no response.

Hogan Job Rating by party, gender, age, and race:

Hogan Job Rating Approve Disapprove


Women 68% 21% Men 72% 20%

Under 50 69% 23% 50 and older 71% 19%


Hogan Job Approval


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Direction of State

Statewide, 53% think things in Maryland are moving in the right direction, while 33%

say that things are moving in the wrong direction, with 14% of voters here offering no

opinion.

Direction of State by party, gender age, race and region:

Direction of State Right Direction Wrong Track


Men 52% 33% Women 56% 33%

Under 50 54% 34% 50 and older 53% 32%

White 49% 30% African-American 55% 34%

Baltimore Metro 52% 33% Washington Metro 56% 32% Rural Maryland 52% 35%

Maryland a Sanctuary State

Statewide, only 33% support making Maryland a sanctuary state (18% “strongly

support” and 15% “somewhat support”), while a majority 52% oppose making Maryland

a sanctuary state (44% “strongly oppose” and 8% “somewhat oppose”), with 15%

offering no opinion.

Sanctuary State Support Oppose


Women 39% 47% Men 27% 58%

Under 50 39% 45% 50 and older 28% 58%



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Make Maryland a Sanctuary State by Region

Baltimore Metro

Support 33% Oppose 51%

Western MD


Washington Metro


Eastern Shore/ Southern MD



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Appendix A: Data Tables

QUESTION 1: Number One Issue in Maryland What is the number one issue Maryland government should deal with right now?

#1 ISSUE IN MARYLAND Number Percent

Crime 199 24.1 %

Healthcare 141 17.0 %

Education 99 12.0 %

Taxes 87 10.5 %

Corruption 74 8.9 %

Environment 62 7.5 %

Transportation 42 5.1 %

Immigration 43 5.2 %

Opioid Crisis 37 4.5 %

Economy 18 2.2 %

N/A 25 3.0 %

Total 827 100.0 %

N=827 #1 ISSUE IN MARYLAND

Crime

Educat-

ion

Trans

Opioid

Crisis

Taxes

Immi-

gration

Corrup-

tion

Health-

care

Envir-

onment

Econ-

omy

N/A

PARTY

Democrat 113 77 37 24 5 1 21 92 56 10 18

24.9% 17.0% 8.1% 5.3% 1.1% 0.2% 4.6% 20.3% 12.3% 2.2% 4.0%

Republican 57 8 0 1 55 40 39 29 3 1 3

24.2% 3.4% 0.0% 0.4% 23.3% 16.9% 16.5% 12.3% 1.3% 0.4% 1.3%

Independent 29 14 5 12 27 2 14 20 3 7 4

21.2% 10.2% 3.6% 8.8% 19.7% 1.5% 10.2% 14.6% 2.2% 5.1% 2.9%

Healthcare jumped 12 points

from our January survey, due to current fears over the

coronavirus threat.


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Crime

Educat-

ion

Trans

Opioid

Crisis

Taxes

Immi-

gration

Corrup-

tion

Health-

care

Envir-

onment

Econ-

omy

N/A

GENDER

Female 103 56 20 21 38 21 33 81 35 9 14

23.9% 13.0% 4.6% 4.9% 8.8% 4.9% 7.7% 18.8% 8.1% 2.1% 3.2%

Male 96 43 22 16 49 22 41 60 27 9 11

24.2% 10.9% 5.6% 4.0% 12.4% 5.6% 10.4% 15.2% 6.8% 2.3% 2.8%


Crime

Educat-

ion

Trans

Opioid

Crisis

Taxes

Immi-

gration

Corrup-

tion

Health-

care

Envir-

onment

Econ-

omy

N/A

AGE GROUP

Under 50 95 42 23 21 27 13 24 63 31 10 10

26.5% 11.7% 6.4% 5.8% 7.5% 3.6% 6.7% 17.5% 8.6% 2.8% 2.8%

50 or older 104 57 19 16 60 30 50 78 31 8 15

22.2% 12.2% 4.1% 3.4% 12.8% 6.4% 10.7% 16.7% 6.6% 1.7% 3.2%


Crime

Educat-

ion

Trans

Opioid

Crisis

Taxes

Immi-

gration

Corrup-

tion

Health-

care

Envir-

onment

Econ-

omy

N/A

RACE

African 61 52 16 6 9 2 10 45 21 6 11

American 25.5% 21.8% 6.7% 2.5% 3.8% 0.8% 4.2% 18.8% 8.8% 2.5% 4.6%

White 125 43 22 27 67 32 60 84 38 11 13

23.9% 8.2% 4.2% 5.2% 12.8% 6.1% 11.5% 16.1% 7.3% 2.1% 2.5%

Other/ 13 4 4 4 11 9 4 12 3 1 1

Refused 19.7% 6.1% 6.1% 6.1% 16.7% 13.6% 6.1% 18.2% 4.5% 1.5% 1.5%


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Crime

Educat-

ion

Trans

Opioid

Crisis

Taxes

Immi-

gration

Corrup-

tion

Health-

care

Envir-

onment

Econ-

omy

N/A

REGION

Baltimore 106 42 13 12 36 15 31 61 25 7 10

Metro 29.6% 11.7% 3.6% 3.4% 10.1% 4.2% 8.7% 17.0% 7.0% 2.0% 2.8%

Washington 52 45 24 15 25 12 20 54 20 7 10

Metro 18.3% 15.8% 8.5% 5.3% 8.8% 4.2% 7.0% 19.0% 7.0% 2.5% 3.5%

Rural 41 12 5 10 26 16 23 26 17 4 5

Maryland 22.2% 6.5% 2.7% 5.4% 14.1% 8.6% 12.4% 14.1% 9.2% 2.2% 2.7%


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QUESTION 2: Trump Job Approval Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president?

JOB APPROVAL: PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP Number Percent

Approve 344 41.6 %

Disapprove 455 55.0 %

No answer 28 3.4 %

Total 827 100.0 %

Is that strongly or somewhat approve/disapprove?

JOB APPROVAL: PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP Number Percent

Strongly Approve 269 32.5 %

Somewhat Approve 75 9.1 %

Somewhat Disapprove 25 3.0 %

Strongly Disapprove 430 52.0 %

No answer 28 3.4 %

Total 827 100.0 %

N=827 JOB APPROVAL: PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP

Approve Disapprove No answer

PARTY

Democrat 71 367 16

15.6% 80.8% 3.5%

Republican 220 13 3

93.2% 5.5% 1.3%

Independent 53 75 9

38.7% 54.7% 6.6%



GENDER

Female 158 258 15

36.7% 59.9% 3.5%

Male 186 197 13

47.0% 49.7% 3.3%


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AGE GROUP

Under 50 128 215 16

35.7% 59.9% 4.5%

50 or older 216 240 12

46.2% 51.3% 2.6%



RACE

African 22 201 16

American 9.2% 84.1% 6.7%

White 287 227 8

55.0% 43.5% 1.5%

Other/ 35 27 4

Refused 53.0% 40.9% 6.1%



REGION

Baltimore 153 195 10

Metro 42.7% 54.5% 2.8%

Washington 75 193 16

Metro 26.4% 68.0% 5.6%

Rural 116 67 2

Maryland 62.7% 36.2% 1.1%


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QUESTION 3: Hogan Job Approval Do you approve or disapprove of the job Larry Hogan is doing as governor?

JOB APPROVAL: GOVERNOR LARRY HOGAN Number Percent

Approve 579 70.0 %


No answer 77 9.3 %

Total 827 100.0 %


JOB APPROVAL: GOVERNOR LARRY HOGAN Number Percent





No answer 77 9.3 %

Total 827 100.0 %

N=827 JOB APPROVAL: GOVERNOR LARRY HOGAN


PARTY

Democrat 301 104 49

66.3% 22.9% 10.8%

Republican 187 35 14

79.2% 14.8% 5.9%

Independent 91 32 14

66.4% 23.4% 10.2%



GENDER

Female 294 92 45

68.2% 21.3% 10.4%

Male 285 79 32

72.0% 19.9% 8.1%


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AGE GROUP

Under 50 248 82 29

69.1% 22.8% 8.1%

50 or older 331 89 48

70.7% 19.0% 10.3%



RACE

African 144 74 21

American 60.3% 31.0% 8.8%

White 387 86 49

74.1% 16.5% 9.4%

Other/ 48 11 7

Refused 72.7% 16.7% 10.6%



REGION

Baltimore 249 76 33

Metro 69.6% 21.2% 9.2%


Metro 66.9% 24.3% 8.8%

Rural 140 26 19

Maryland 75.7% 14.1% 10.3%


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QUESTION 4: Trump Economy Job Approval Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling the economy and jobs?

JOB APPROVAL: TRUMP ECONOMY Number Percent

Approve 373 45.1 %


No answer 25 3.0 %

Total 827 100.0 %


JOB APPROVAL: TRUMP ECONOMY Number Percent





No answer 25 3.0 %

Total 827 100.0 %

N=827 JOB APPROVAL: TRUMP ECONOMY


PARTY

Democrat 93 347 14

20.5% 76.4% 3.1%

Republican 222 11 3

94.1% 4.7% 1.3%

Independent 58 71 8

42.3% 51.8% 5.8%



GENDER

Female 178 237 16

41.3% 55.0% 3.7%

Male 195 192 9

49.2% 48.5% 2.3%


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AGE GROUP

Under 50 145 201 13

40.4% 56.0% 3.6%

50 or older 228 228 12

48.7% 48.7% 2.6%



RACE

African 36 191 12

American 15.1% 79.9% 5.0%

White 302 213 7

57.9% 40.8% 1.3%

Other/ 35 25 6

Refused 53.0% 37.9% 9.1%



REGION

Baltimore 164 186 8

Metro 45.8% 52.0% 2.2%


Metro 32.0% 63.4% 4.6%

Rural 118 63 4

Maryland 63.8% 34.1% 2.2%


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Trump Economy Approval by Trump Overall Job Approval



JOB APPROVAL: PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP

Approve 340 3 1

98.8% 0.9% 0.3%

Disapprove 27 423 5

5.9% 93.0% 1.1%

No answer 6 3 19

21.4% 10.7% 67.9%

Only 6% of Maryland voters who

disapprove of Trump generally

approve of the job he is doing

handling the economy and jobs


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QUESTION 5: Direction of State Overall, would you say things in Maryland are moving in the right direction, or would you say things are off on the wrong track?

DIRECTION OF STATE Number Percent

Right Direction 442 53.4 %

Wrong Track 272 32.9 %

No answer 113 13.7 %

Total 827 100.0 %

N=827 DIRECTION OF STATE

Right Direction Wrong Track No answer

PARTY

Democrat 255 115 84

56.2% 25.3% 18.5%

Republican 118 102 16

50.0% 43.2% 6.8%


50.4% 40.1% 9.5%

Democrats, interestingly, are least

likely to think things in Maryland are

moving in the wrong direction.


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GENDER

Female 222 141 68

51.5% 32.7% 15.8%

Male 220 131 45

55.6% 33.1% 11.4%



AGE GROUP

Under 50 192 123 44

53.5% 34.3% 12.3%

50 or older 250 149 69

53.4% 31.8% 14.7%



RACE

African 118 72 49

American 49.4% 30.1% 20.5%

White 288 176 58

55.2% 33.7% 11.1%

Other/ 36 24 6

Refused 54.5% 36.4% 9.1%



REGION


Metro 52.0% 32.7% 15.4%


Metro 56.3% 31.7% 12.0%

Rural 96 65 24

Maryland 51.9% 35.1% 13.0%


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QUESTION 6: Sanctuary State Do you support or oppose making Maryland a Sanctuary State?

SANCTUARY STATE Number Percent

Support 273 33.0 %

Oppose 432 52.2 %


Total 827 100.0 %

Is that strongly or somewhat support/oppose?

SANCTUARY STATE Number Percent

Strongly Support 149 18.0 %

Somewhat Support 124 15.0 %

Somewhat Oppose 66 8.0 %

Strongly Oppose 366 44.3 %


Total 827 100.0 %

N=827 SANCTUARY STATE

Support Oppose No answer

PARTY

Democrat 230 137 87

50.7% 30.2% 19.2%

Republican 7 213 16

3.0% 90.3% 6.8%


26.3% 59.9% 13.9%

Significant majorities of Republicans

and independents oppose making

Maryland a sanctuary state.


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GENDER

Female 168 203 60

39.0% 47.1% 13.9%

Male 105 229 62

26.5% 57.8% 15.7%



AGE GROUP

Under 50 141 162 56

39.3% 45.1% 15.6%

50 or older 132 270 66

28.2% 57.7% 14.1%



RACE

African 132 75 32

American 55.2% 31.4% 13.4%

White 123 318 81

23.6% 60.9% 15.5%

Other/ 18 39 9

Refused 27.3% 59.1% 13.6%



REGION


Metro 33.2% 51.4% 15.4%


Metro 43.0% 42.6% 14.4%

Rural 32 127 26

Maryland 17.3% 68.6% 14.1%


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Appendix B: Maryland Poll Sample Demographics

PARTY Number Percent

Democrat 454 54.9 %

Republican 236 28.5 %

Independent 137 16.6 %

Total 827 100.0 %

AGE Number Percent

18 to 39 173 20.9 %

40 to 49 186 22.5 %

50 to 59 198 23.9 %

60 and older 270 32.6 %

Total 827 100.0 %

AGE GROUP Number Percent

Under 50 359 43.4 %

50 or older 468 56.6 %

Total 827 100.0 %

RACE Number Percent

African American 239 28.9 %

White 522 63.1 %

Other/Refused 66 8.0 %

Total 827 100.0 %

GENDER Number Percent

Female 431 52.1 %

Male 396 47.9 %

Total 827 100.0 %

REGION Number Percent

Baltimore Metro 358 43.3 %

Washington Metro 284 34.3 %

Rural Maryland 185 22.4 %

Total 827 100.0 %


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Region Classifications

Baltimore Metro Number Percent

Baltimore City 74 20.7 %

Anne Arundel County 79 22.1 %

Baltimore County 118 33.0 %

Harford County 39 10.9 %

Howard County 48 13.4 %

Total 358 100.0 %

Washington Metro Number Percent

Montgomery County 139 48.9 %

Prince George's County 120 42.3 %

Charles County 25 8.8 %

Total 284 100.0 %

Rural Maryland Number Percent

Eastern Shore/Southern Maryland 89 48.1 %

Western Maryland 96 51.9 %

Total 185 100.0 %

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