Goldman Sachs Presentation at the 2008 Merrill Lynch Banking and Financial Services Investor...

20
Today Today s presentation may include forward s presentation may include forward - - looking statements. These looking statements. These statements represent the Firm statements represent the Firm s belief regarding future events that, by s belief regarding future events that, by their nature, are uncertain and outside of the Firm their nature, are uncertain and outside of the Firm s control. The Firm s control. The Firm s s actual results and financial condition may differ, possibly mate actual results and financial condition may differ, possibly mate rially, from rially, from what is indicated in those forward what is indicated in those forward - - looking statements. looking statements. For a discussion of some of the risks and factors that could aff For a discussion of some of the risks and factors that could aff ect the ect the Firm Firm s future results, please see the description of s future results, please see the description of Risk Factors Risk Factors in our in our current annual report on Form 10 current annual report on Form 10 - - K for our fiscal year ended November K for our fiscal year ended November 2007. You should also read the information on the calculation o 2007. You should also read the information on the calculation o f non f non - - GAAP financial measures that is posted on the Investor Relations GAAP financial measures that is posted on the Investor Relations portion of our website: www.gs.com. portion of our website: www.gs.com. The statements in the presentation are current only as of its da The statements in the presentation are current only as of its da te, te, November 11, 2008. November 11, 2008. Cautionary Note Cautionary Note on Forward on Forward - - Looking Statements Looking Statements

description

 

Transcript of Goldman Sachs Presentation at the 2008 Merrill Lynch Banking and Financial Services Investor...

Page 1: Goldman Sachs Presentation at the 2008 Merrill Lynch Banking and Financial Services Investor Conference

TodayToday’’s presentation may include forwards presentation may include forward--looking statements. These looking statements. These statements represent the Firmstatements represent the Firm’’s belief regarding future events that, by s belief regarding future events that, by their nature, are uncertain and outside of the Firmtheir nature, are uncertain and outside of the Firm’’s control. The Firms control. The Firm’’s s actual results and financial condition may differ, possibly mateactual results and financial condition may differ, possibly materially, from rially, from what is indicated in those forwardwhat is indicated in those forward--looking statements. looking statements.

For a discussion of some of the risks and factors that could affFor a discussion of some of the risks and factors that could affect the ect the FirmFirm’’s future results, please see the description of s future results, please see the description of ““Risk FactorsRisk Factors”” in our in our current annual report on Form 10current annual report on Form 10--K for our fiscal year ended November K for our fiscal year ended November 2007. You should also read the information on the calculation o2007. You should also read the information on the calculation of nonf non--GAAP financial measures that is posted on the Investor RelationsGAAP financial measures that is posted on the Investor Relationsportion of our website: www.gs.com. portion of our website: www.gs.com.

The statements in the presentation are current only as of its daThe statements in the presentation are current only as of its date,te,November 11, 2008. November 11, 2008.

Cautionary NoteCautionary Noteon Forwardon Forward --Looking StatementsLooking Statements

Page 2: Goldman Sachs Presentation at the 2008 Merrill Lynch Banking and Financial Services Investor Conference

Goldman Sachs Presentation toGoldman Sachs Presentation to2008 Merrill Lynch Financial 2008 Merrill Lynch Financial Services ConferenceServices Conference

Lloyd C. BlankfeinLloyd C. BlankfeinChairman & CEOChairman & CEONovember 11, 2008November 11, 2008

Page 3: Goldman Sachs Presentation at the 2008 Merrill Lynch Banking and Financial Services Investor Conference

2

Goldman SachsGoldman Sachs

““ They still have the Goldman reputation and history, but they wilThey still have the Goldman reputation and history, but they wil l l not be unique anymore.not be unique anymore. ””

“…“… something bolder might be needed, such as a mergersomething bolder might be needed, such as a merger …”…”

““ GoldmanGoldman ’’s earnings have grown more dependent than most s earnings have grown more dependent than most people think on proprietary tradingpeople think on proprietary trading ””

June 6, 1998June 6, 1998

The New York TimesThe New York Times

June 20, 1998June 20, 1998

The EconomistThe Economist

January, 20 1999January, 20 1999Bloomberg NewsBloomberg News

Page 4: Goldman Sachs Presentation at the 2008 Merrill Lynch Banking and Financial Services Investor Conference

3

Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Jul-08 Oct-08

Market DynamicsMarket DynamicsAugust 2007 to PresentAugust 2007 to Present 11

(1)(1) Data through November 7, 2008Data through November 7, 2008

2323

5656(37)%

(42)% (41)%

(88)%

(52)%

(8)%

S&P500

FTSE HangSeng

ABXAA

CMBXAA

LCDX

Global Equity Markets Credit Markets

Asset Price PerformanceAsset Price Performance Volatility (VIX)Volatility (VIX)

Page 5: Goldman Sachs Presentation at the 2008 Merrill Lynch Banking and Financial Services Investor Conference

4

Bank Holding CompanyBank Holding Company

�� Why now?Why now?

Regulation inevitableRegulation inevitable

Market perceptionMarket perception

−− Safety of the FedSafety of the Fed

−− Funding AvailabilityFunding Availability

�� How will this impact GoldmanHow will this impact Goldman ’’s strategy?s strategy?

No impact on existing strategyNo impact on existing strategy

Provides Provides optionalityoptionality in a dislocated marketin a dislocated market

−− Bank Deposits could lower cost of funding over timeBank Deposits could lower cost of funding over time

�� NearNear--term impactterm impact

New RegulatorNew Regulator

$130bn $130bn -- $150bn of assets being moved into the bank$150bn of assets being moved into the bank

Page 6: Goldman Sachs Presentation at the 2008 Merrill Lynch Banking and Financial Services Investor Conference

5

Unsecured LongUnsecured Long --Term Term Funding: $176bnFunding: $176bn

Wholesale FundingWholesale Funding3Q083Q08

Liquid Gov'ts,

Agencies, MBS42%

Secured Debt15%

Bank Loans and Whole

Loans7%

Equities23%

ABS / CMBS

5%

CP, Corporates,

Munis8%

Current LTD42%

CP2%

Other14%

Prom Notes13%

Hybrid Debt29%

GBP3%AUD

2%JPY4%

CAD1%

Other2%

EUR30% USD

58%

Unsecured ShortUnsecured Short --Term Term Funding: $65bnFunding: $65bnSecured Funding: $192bnSecured Funding: $192bn

Page 7: Goldman Sachs Presentation at the 2008 Merrill Lynch Banking and Financial Services Investor Conference

6

Deposit Building AlternativesDeposit Building Alternatives

$10.7

$15.4

$29.1

2006 2007 3Q08

Historic Deposit Growth ($bn)Historic Deposit Growth ($bn)

�� OrganicOrganic

PWMPWM

AycoAyco

�� Third party distributionThird party distribution

Brokered CDsBrokered CDs

�� AcquisitionAcquisition

Distressed Distressed opportunitiesopportunities

Institutional and retailInstitutional and retail

Growth AlternativesGrowth Alternatives

Page 8: Goldman Sachs Presentation at the 2008 Merrill Lynch Banking and Financial Services Investor Conference

7

Core Attributes That Define GSCore Attributes That Define GS

����������

CultureCulture

FranchiseFranchise

Liquidity/Capital ManagementLiquidity/Capital Management

Risk Management/Fair ValueRisk Management/Fair Value

Revenue DiversificationRevenue Diversification

ValidatedValidated

Page 9: Goldman Sachs Presentation at the 2008 Merrill Lynch Banking and Financial Services Investor Conference

8

Diversified Revenue MixDiversified Revenue MixAverage Since 1999Average Since 1999

CreditCredit29%29%

MortgagesMortgages5%5%

CommoditiesCommodities23%23%

CurrenciesCurrencies16%16%

Interest RateInterest RateProductsProducts

27%27%

AssetAssetManagementManagement

12%12%

PrincipalPrincipalInvestmentsInvestments

5%5%

SecuritiesSecuritiesServicesServices

6%6%

InvestmentInvestmentBankingBanking

19%19%

FICCFICC32%32%

Equities Equities TradingTrading

13%13%

Equities Equities CommissionsCommissions

13%13%

Page 10: Goldman Sachs Presentation at the 2008 Merrill Lynch Banking and Financial Services Investor Conference

9

43

23

1919 19

15

10

27

22

1513

17

82%

148%

191%

245%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 Pro-Forma

-50%

50%

150%

250%

Lev. Loans Res. RE CRE Total as a % of Tangible

Risk ManagementRisk Management

(1)(1) 3Q08 Tangible Common Equity is pro3Q08 Tangible Common Equity is pro--forma for our recent $20.75bn in capital raisesforma for our recent $20.75bn in capital raises

11

$bn

% of T

angible Com

mon E

quity

Page 11: Goldman Sachs Presentation at the 2008 Merrill Lynch Banking and Financial Services Investor Conference

10

Liquidity and Capital ManagementLiquidity and Capital Management

$38

$61

$88

$51

$42$46

$61

$102

Nov

-03

Nov

-04

Nov

-05

Nov

-06

Nov

-07

1Q08

2Q08

3Q08

Average Global Core Excess ($bn)Average Global Core Excess ($bn) Prudent Capital ManagementPrudent Capital Management 11

17.1%

11.6%10.8%

20.7%

14.2%

15.2%

2Q08 3Q08 Pro-Forma

Tier 1 Ratio Total Capital Ratio

(1)(1) ProPro--forma for our recent $20.75bn in capital raisesforma for our recent $20.75bn in capital raises

Page 12: Goldman Sachs Presentation at the 2008 Merrill Lynch Banking and Financial Services Investor Conference

11

Franchise Drives Market Share GainsFranchise Drives Market Share Gains

Equities Commissions ($Equities Commissions ($ bnbn))Investment Banking Investment Banking –– Strength of FIG Strength of FIG

FranchiseFranchise 11

FinancingFinancingAdvisoryAdvisory

$15bn Acquisition$15bn Acquisition

$10bn Acquisition$10bn Acquisition

$8bn Acquisition$8bn Acquisition

$20bn IPO$20bn IPO

$8bn Common and$8bn Common andPref. Stock OfferingPref. Stock Offering

$3bn Common Offering$3bn Common Offering

$3.5

$4.6

$3.7

$2.7$3.0

$2.5

$3.0

$2.6

$2.0

2000 2002 2004 2006 3Q2008YTD

(1)(1) Americas exAmericas ex--self led/advised 2008YTD transactions as of November 4, 2008self led/advised 2008YTD transactions as of November 4, 2008

Page 13: Goldman Sachs Presentation at the 2008 Merrill Lynch Banking and Financial Services Investor Conference

12

Culture Culture

Page 14: Goldman Sachs Presentation at the 2008 Merrill Lynch Banking and Financial Services Investor Conference

13

International Expansion StrategyPositioned to Chase GDP GrowthInternational Expansion StrategyInternational Expansion StrategyPositioned to Chase GDP GrowthPositioned to Chase GDP Growth

Real GDP Growth by Region (YoY %)Real GDP Growth by Region (YoY %) Revenue Contribution by RegionRevenue Contribution by Region 11

(1)(1) Average revenue contribution from 2007 through 3Q08Average revenue contribution from 2007 through 3Q08

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Q107 Q307 Q108 Q308 Q109 Q309

BRICS World Adv. Economies

GS Research GS Research EstimateEstimate

Americas54%EMEA

29%

Asia17%

Page 15: Goldman Sachs Presentation at the 2008 Merrill Lynch Banking and Financial Services Investor Conference

14

Opportunistic InvestingOpportunistic Investing

Cumulative Funds Raised Over Time ($bn)Cumulative Funds Raised Over Time ($bn)

Total Funds Raised in Total Funds Raised in 2007 and 2008:2007 and 2008:

$55bn$55bn

$28$28$26$26

$15

$24

$40

$52

$93

$107

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

PIA REPIA

Page 16: Goldman Sachs Presentation at the 2008 Merrill Lynch Banking and Financial Services Investor Conference

15

Assets Under Management ($Assets Under Management ($ bnbn ))

48 72 122 108 89 90 101 118206

26258 57

71 96 112 134 154198

256268

98107

96 91 104133

167

215

255179

5458

62 53 68

95

110

145

151 154

$258$294

$351 $348 $373

$452

$532

$676

$868 $863

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 3Q08

Money Markets Fixed Income Equity Alternative Investments

Page 17: Goldman Sachs Presentation at the 2008 Merrill Lynch Banking and Financial Services Investor Conference

16

Returns Over the CycleReturns Over the CycleGS Annual ROTE since IPOGS Annual ROTE since IPO

32%

29%

15%

20%

27%

40%38%

16%

25%

18%

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 08YTD

Average Since Average Since IPO: 26%IPO: 26%

Target: 20%Target: 20%

Page 18: Goldman Sachs Presentation at the 2008 Merrill Lynch Banking and Financial Services Investor Conference

17

ROE is SustainableROE is SustainableGS ROE vs. Adjusted Leverage GS ROE vs. Adjusted Leverage –– 2Q99 to 3Q082Q99 to 3Q08

R2 = 0.38

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

ROE (%)

GS

Adj

. Lev

erag

e (x

)

�� Leverage is not a major driver of our ROELeverage is not a major driver of our ROE

Page 19: Goldman Sachs Presentation at the 2008 Merrill Lynch Banking and Financial Services Investor Conference

18

$20.94

$43.60$50.77

$57.02

$90.43

$38.69$32.18

$99.30

$36.33

$72.62

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 3Q08

Long Term GrowthLong Term GrowthGrowing Book Value Per Share in a Dislocated Enviro nmentGrowing Book Value Per Share in a Dislocated Enviro nment

CAGR 19%CAGR 19%

Page 20: Goldman Sachs Presentation at the 2008 Merrill Lynch Banking and Financial Services Investor Conference

Goldman Sachs Presentation toGoldman Sachs Presentation to2008 Merrill Lynch Financial 2008 Merrill Lynch Financial Services ConferenceServices Conference

Lloyd C. BlankfeinLloyd C. BlankfeinChairman & CEOChairman & CEONovember 11, 2008November 11, 2008