Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference November...

10
1 Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference November 2, 2011 2 Cautionary Information This presentation and related materials contain statements about the Corporation’s future that are not statements of historical fact, including specifically the Corporation’s outlook regarding: economic conditions and growth opportunities; future safety and operating performance; future capital investments; and its ability to generate volume leverage, increase returns to shareholders, and attract new business. These statements are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements also generally include, without limitation, information or statements regarding: projections, predictions, expectations, estimates or forecasts as to the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ business, financial, and operational results, and future economic performance; and management’s beliefs, expectations, goals, and objectives and other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts. Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance or results will be achieved. Forward- looking information, including expectations regarding operational and financial improvements and the Corporation’s future performance or results are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in the statement. Important factors, including risk factors, could affect the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Information regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2010, which was filed with the SEC on February 4, 2011. The Corporation updates information regarding risk factors if circumstances require such updates in its periodic reports on Form 10-Q and its subsequent Annual Reports on Form 10-K (or such other reports that may be filed with the SEC). Forward-looking statements speak only as of, and are based only upon information available on, the date the statements were made. The Corporation assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If the Corporation does update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that the Corporation will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements. References to our website are provided for convenience and, therefore, information on or available through the website is not, and should not be deemed to be, incorporated by reference herein.

Transcript of Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference November...

Page 1: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference November 2, 2011 2 Cautionary Information This presentation and related materials contain

1

1

Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference

November 2, 2011

2

Cautionary Information

This presentation and related materials contain statements about the Corporation’s future that are not

statements of historical fact, including specifically the Corporation’s outlook regarding: economic conditions and growth

opportunities; future safety and operating performance; future capital investments; and its ability to generate volume

leverage, increase returns to shareholders, and attract new business. These statements are, or will be, forward-looking

statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements

also generally include, without limitation, information or statements regarding: projections, predictions, expectations,

estimates or forecasts as to the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ business, financial, and operational results, and future

economic performance; and management’s beliefs, expectations, goals, and objectives and other similar expressions

concerning matters that are not historical facts.

Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not

necessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance or results will be achieved. Forward-

looking information, including expectations regarding operational and financial improvements and the Corporation’s future

performance or results are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially

from those expressed in the statement. Important factors, including risk factors, could affect the Corporation’s and its

subsidiaries’ future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or

implied in the forward-looking statements. Information regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in

the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2010, which was filed with the SEC on February 4, 2011. The Corporation

updates information regarding risk factors if circumstances require such updates in its periodic reports on Form 10-Q and its

subsequent Annual Reports on Form 10-K (or such other reports that may be filed with the SEC).

Forward-looking statements speak only as of, and are based only upon information available on, the date the

statements were made. The Corporation assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results,

changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If the Corporation does update one

or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that the Corporation will make additional updates with

respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements. References to our website are provided for convenience

and, therefore, information on or available through the website is not, and should not be deemed to be, incorporated by

reference herein.

Page 2: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference November 2, 2011 2 Cautionary Information This presentation and related materials contain

2

3

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

$2.05

$3.98

$4.74

Record Setting 2011 September YTD

• Volumes up 3%

• EPS = $4.74, +19%

• Operating Income up 12%

• Operating Ratio = 71.6%

– Negative Fuel Price Impact of (2.0) points versus 2010

• Free Cash Flow = $1.5B*

• Solid Service

• Strong Employee Safety

7-Day

Volume (000s)

192

175

Earnings Per Share

* See Union Pacific website under Investors for a reconciliation to GAAP.

4

2008 2009 2010 2011

22.9

25.6

2008 2009 2010 2011

48,697

44,841

Continued Operating Efficiency September YTD

AAR Velocity (MPH)

Good

Manifest Grain Coal Intermdl

81 92

125

155

2008 2011

Train Size (Units)

94

167

128 +2%

88 +2%

+8%

+9%

SDI + Early

Deliveries

82

87

Total Employees (Average full-time-equivalent)

2008 2009 2010 2011

15.95

14.24

16.19 16.18

GTMs per Employee (In Millions)

Workforce down 8%

Volume down 4%

Page 3: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference November 2, 2011 2 Cautionary Information This presentation and related materials contain

3

5

Chemicals

2011 Business Levels

*As of 10/24/2011

Automotive

Energy

Industrial Products

Agricultural

Intermodal

TOTAL

+4%

+7%

+3%

-2%

+6%

+3%

+9%

Year-to-Date Growth*

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

7-Day Monthly Carloadings (000s)

2006

2010

January December

2011*

2009

October MTD 7-Day Volume*

Q1 Vol

Growth = 5%

Q2 Vol

Growth = 3%

Units (excl Intermodal) +6%

Q3 Vol

Growth = 1%

6

Portland

Los Angeles

Calexico

Seattle

Brownsville

Houston New Orleans

Twin Cities

Nogales El Paso

Duluth

Oakland Omaha

Denver Salt Lake City

Kansas City

Chicago

Memphis

St. Louis

The Strength of a Unique Franchise

Fastest Growing States

Ports

Borders & Interchange

To/From

Asia

To/From

Asia

To Europe,

South America

and Africa

Industrial

16%

Agricultural

19%

Chemicals

15%

Eagle Pass

Laredo

Dallas

Eastport

Intermodal

20%

Energy

22% Autos 8%

Industrial

17%

Agricultural

18%

Chemicals

15%

Freight Revenue $13.7B Sept YTD 2011

• Diverse Business Mix

• Fastest Growing States

• Broad Port Access

• Interchange Traffic & Border Crossings

Page 4: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference November 2, 2011 2 Cautionary Information This presentation and related materials contain

4

7

Ferromex (FXE)

KCSM

Ferrosur (FSRR)

Short Lines

Brownsville

Nogales

Laredo

Eagle Pass

Calexico

El Paso

Hermosillo

Torreón Saltillo Monterrey

Culiacán

San Luis

Potosí

Tampico

Querétaro

Veracruz

Coatzacoalcos

Puebla

Salina Cruz

Aguascalientes

Guadalajara

Manzanillo Mexico

City

Chihuahua

Lázaro Cárdenas

Mexico Opportunities

Monclova

• Growing Population

• Faster Economic Recovery

• Favorable Macro Drivers

– Growing Near-Shoring

– Skilled Labor Base

– Rising Transpacific and Chinese Labor Costs

Business Mix ($1.3B Sept YTD 2011)

Agricultural 27%

Automotive 34%

Intermodal 10%

Industrial 19%

Energy 1%

Chemicals 9%

8

7 Day Volume Trends Through October 24, 2011

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

Agricultural

2010

Jan Dec

2011

2009

42,000

50,000

58,000

66,000

74,000 Intermodal

2010

Jan Dec

2011

2009

34,000

36,000

38,000

40,000

42,000

44,000

46,000

Energy

2010

Jan Dec

2011

2009

– Improved World

Grain Supply Softens

U.S. Export Demand

– 4th Qtr Ag Volumes

down 5 – 6%

Going Forward

– International

Volumes Lagging

– Strong Domestic

Volumes & Highway

Conversions

– Low Stockpiles

– New Plant On-line

– CO/UT Increased

Production

October MTD 7-Day Volume

Page 5: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference November 2, 2011 2 Cautionary Information This presentation and related materials contain

5

9

7 Day Volume Trends (cont) Through October 24, 2011

– Continued Growth in

U.S. Auto Sales

– Recovery from

Disaster in Japan

Going Forward

– Continued Growth in

Crude Oil

– Fertilizer Rebounding

with Seasonal

Demand

– Drilling Demand

Drives Non-Metallic

Minerals and Steel

– Iron Ore Exports to

China

5,000

7,000

9,000

11,000

13,000

15,000 Automotive

2010

Jan Dec

2011

2009

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000 Chemicals

2010

Jan Dec

2011

2009

15,000

17,000

19,000

21,000

23,000

25,000 Industrial Products

2010

Jan Dec

2011

2009

October MTD 7-Day Volume

10

Global Demand for Energy Diverse Opportunities for UP

Energy Sources

• Coal

• Ethanol

• Wind

• Petroleum/LPG

• Oil Sands, Shale

Related Markets

• Frac Sand

• Pipe

• Other Materials

Page 6: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference November 2, 2011 2 Cautionary Information This presentation and related materials contain

6

11

Global Demand for Energy

Canadian

Oil Sands

Eagle Ford

Shale

Haynesville

Shale

Bakken

Shale

Permian

Shale

Shale Formations

Drilling Sand (Proppants)

Niobrara

Shale

To Marcellus

Shale

11

UP Route (Crude) Integrated Strategy

• Frac Sand

• Minerals

• Steel

• Pipe

• Crude Oil

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Projected Volume Growth*

* Indexed to 2010 Volumes

UP Route (Sand)

Originating Railroads

Industrial

Sand

12

2011 $750M

2012 $300M

2013 $350M

2014 $100M

2015+ $500M

Pricing Gains and Opportunities

*Based on freight revenue for 12-months ended December 31, 2010

Legacy Contracts ($2 Billion Remaining)*

Remaining Legacy*

Energy ~65%

Intermodal ~25%

All Other ~10% 2007 2008 2009 2010 1Q

2011 2Q

2011 3Q

2011

6.0% 6.0%

4.5%

5.0%

4.5% 4.5% 4.5%

Core Pricing Gains

Energy

International Intermodal

Page 7: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference November 2, 2011 2 Cautionary Information This presentation and related materials contain

7

13

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015E

81.6

79.3 77.4

76.1

70.6

192 190

180

152

172

Operating Ratio Trend

Operating Ratio (Percent)

7-Day Volume (000s)

65 - 67

Targeting a 65% to 67%

Full Year Operating

Ratio by 2015

11 point improvement from

2006 to 2010

14

Infrastructure

• In 2010, rails spent a record

$10.7 billion on capital

expenditures

• UP’s 2011 capital investment

plan = record $3.3 billion

Jobs

• Freight Rails spend over $18

billion annually in wages and

benefits

• Since 2005, UP has hired

nearly 25,000 new employees

Investing in America

*AAR statistics

Page 8: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference November 2, 2011 2 Cautionary Information This presentation and related materials contain

8

15

Solid Financial Position September YTD ($ In Millions)

• Record Cash from Operations and Free Cash Flow

• 39% Cash Dividend Increase YTD

• Targeted Dividend Payout Ratio of 30%

• Maintain Solid Investment Grade Rating

$1,009

$1,486 $438

$607

Free Cash Flow*

Total Debt* (Adjusted)

42.5% 41.4%

* See Union Pacific website under Investors for a reconciliation to GAAP.

Adjusted Debt to Capital

$1,447

$2,093 Before Dividends

After Dividends

9/30/2010 9/30/2011

YE 2010 9/30/2011

Dividends

$13,139 $13,095

16

Delivering Value to Shareholders

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*

$1.7

$3.8

$4.4

$6.2

$7.9

Cash To Shareholders (Cumulative) (Dividends + Share Repurchases, in Billions)

• Performance Drives Dividend Increases

‒ YTD 2011* = $607 Million

– Moving Toward Target Payout Ratio

• Share Repurchases

‒ 3Q 2011 = $428 Million

‒ YTD 2011* = $1.04 Billion

‒ 31 .7 Million Shares

Remaining in Current

Authorization*

* 2011 Activity through September 30.

Page 9: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference November 2, 2011 2 Cautionary Information This presentation and related materials contain

9

17

Total Shareholder Return

Average Annual Total Return*

Time Frame** UP S&P 500

15 Yrs 10.9% 6.0%

10 Yrs 16.8% 3.5%

5 Yrs 19.7% 0.8%

3 Yrs 25.0% 17.4%

1 Yr 22.3% 10.9%

* Assumes dividends are reinvested in company stock

** Periods ending October 27, 2011

18

Union Pacific Prospects Remain Positive

Continued

Volume

Growth

“Real”

Pricing

Gains

Ongoing

Productivity

Focus

Record

Earnings

Improved

Shareholder

Returns

Page 10: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference November 2, 2011 2 Cautionary Information This presentation and related materials contain

10

19

Question & Answer Session