Goldman Reform Presentation

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    Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2

    Regulat ion

    1. Stepping back whats really on the table

    First tenant: limitations of scope, which would restrict the activities of banks (ie

    the Volcker

    rule, the Blanche Lincoln proposal)

    Second tenant: alterations to existing practices and market structures (ie

    the derivatives

    proposals, the consumer protection agency)

    2. An off-setting force credit and liquidity

    Must be weighed against credit availability and liquidity in secondary markets

    This may moderate some of the worst case scenarios (eg

    momentum seems to be building

    to remove an outright prohibition on swaps dealing by banks )

    Where we would position

    We believe big banks have lagged enough to justify the legislative risk

    Continue to favor JPM and BAC

    Exchanges (CME, ICE, NDAQ and NYX) should benefit from the move to central clearing

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    Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 5

    Sum m ary o f key proposa ls and potent ia limpac t t o f inanc ia l sub sec t o rs

    Area of reform What seems likely Points of greatest debate from here

    Big

    Banks

    Regional

    Banks

    Credit

    Cards

    Smid

    Brokers

    Mkt

    Structure

    Asset

    Mgrs

    Derivatives Greater use of central clearing

    1. Section 106 - can banks own swaps dealers

    2. Margin requirements3. Central clearing vs. exchange trading

    +

    Volcker rule Less proprietary trading

    1. Sponsorship of hedge funds and private equity --

    i.e. can banks put HF and PE into asset mgmtdivisions

    +

    Consumer Protection New Consumer FinancialProtection Agency (CFPA)

    1. Rule making authority: CFPA vs. Fed

    2. National pre-emption vs. state by state lendinglaws

    Bank tax & size limitationsSome form of tax to fund anylosses from TARP

    1. Pre-funded money for any future crisis

    2. Legislative restrictions on size of banks

    Resolution AuthorityAbility to wind down systemicallyimportant firms

    1. Impact on credit markets including potentialratings agency actions

    OVERALL RISK -->

    MOST

    NEGATIV

    E RISK

    Potential Sector Risk

    LESS AT RISK

    POTENTIAL

    MODEST

    POSITIVES

    Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.

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    Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 6

    The re form debat e f rom here

    Passes Financial ServicesCommittee (Nov. 2009)

    Banking Committee Markup(March 2010)

    Ag. Committee Markup(April 2010)

    Passes House Floor 223-202(Dec. 2009)

    Senate Floor(April/May 2010)

    House-Senate ConferenceCommittee

    (May/June 2010)

    Option 2: House Passage of Senate Bill

    House Passage of SenateBill (May/June 2010)

    Option 1: Conference Committee

    House Passage of Conf.Report (June 2010)

    Senate Passage of Conf.Report (June 2010)

    House Senate

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    Der ivat ives and prop t rad ing

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    RAFSA has t w o im por t ant proposa ls thatimpac t m ark e t s t ruc t u re com pan ies

    Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.

    The Volcker Rule (Section 619 or Title VII)

    Would prohibit certain types of high risk activity

    Proposal could reduce overall trading activity, potentially lower market liquidity, and

    impact fees generated by exchanges in the transaction parts of their business

    Creating a safer derivatives market: there are three tenets to this proposal:

    Central clearing of OTC derivatives: all OTC products would be required to be centrallycleared with requisite initial margin requirements for all products

    Exchange trading as a price transparency mechanism would be required

    Can be exchange traded or traded on an alternative swap execution facility(ASEF)

    Allow for some customized bilateral contracts. Exceptions are fairly well defined:

    One counterparty is not a swap/security dealer or MSP (major swap participant),the product does not meet the eligibility requirements of a clearing house

    Margin may be waived in certain circumstances if one party is not a swap/securitydealer or MSP, is using the swap to hedge under GAAP, and is not predominantlyengaged in financial activities

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    Marke t St ruc t u re & Ex c hange s tock sappear w el l pos i t ioned t o benef i t

    Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.

    Difficult to see how exchange and clearing stocks are not incremental beneficiaries

    CME: currently trades and clears 99% of U.S. futures products on interest rates

    NDAQ: acquired the International Derivatives Clearing Group (IDCG) in 2009, which is

    the only market participant to have announced it has an interest rate swap clearingplatform ready for clients to test

    Dealers/Brokers have less directional authority to drive clearing strategy than they have hadin the past few years

    ICE Trust is the dominant provider of clearing services in CDS clearing in the U.S.

    Dealers were able to secure 49% of net profits from ICE Trust to support that platform

    NYSE sold 49% stake in its U.S. options business to attract flow

    Beyond clearing, there could be positive impacts on transactions and associated exchangetraded product

    Clearing tends to have a higher profit stickiness given underlying liquidity pool

    Other market structure names may benefit: GFIG, BGCP, MKTX, NITE

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    Sizing t he OTC m ark et s : $604 t n not ionaland m ul t ip le the s ize o f ex c hange mark e t s

    Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.

    $0

    $100

    $200

    $300

    $400

    $500

    $600

    $700

    $800

    1H98

    2H98

    1H99

    2H99

    1H00

    2H00

    1H01

    2H01

    1H02

    2H02

    1H03

    2H03

    1H04

    2H04

    1H05

    2H05

    1H06

    2H06

    1H07

    2H07

    1H08

    2H08

    1H09

    Interest rate contracts Unallocated Credit default swaps

    Foreign exchange contracts Commodity contracts Equity-linked contracts

    72 80 81

    OTC

    notionalamountoutstanding($,

    trillions)

    88 94 95 99111

    127 141169

    197

    220257 281 297

    370414

    516

    596

    684

    592

    604

    Interest rate and F/X OTC markets are multiple of exchange peers

    437.2

    6.6

    48.867.1

    5.8 0.3-

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    450

    500

    Interest Rate Equity Index F/X

    6.5x

    1.2x

    157x

    11.9x

    21.2x

    0.6x4.5x

    1.2x 2.8x 1.1x 1.0x

    93.0x

    45.0x

    92.0x

    0

    1020

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    100

    Total FX

    Forward

    FX Swaps FX

    Options

    Total FRAs IRS IR

    Options

    F/X

    Futures

    Rate

    Futures

    Equity

    Futures

    F/X OTC Interest Rate OTC Exchange Traded

    OTC markets have grown at a 24% CAGRsince 1998

    Interest Rate swaps have grown the

    fastest at 26% and represent 72% of total

    CDS swaps are now $25 tn

    But exchange traded products turn overmuch more rapidly

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    CDS m ark et s : $25 t n gross not ional , butnet t ing reduces r isk roughly 90%

    Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.

    The CDS markets remain quite robust, withover $25 tn in gross exposure

    With compression and tear-ups, the amount

    of net exposure is $2.4 tn

    77% of CDS is dealer to dealer and is likely tomove into the ICE Trust Clearing House

    The average length of time to termination is2.7 years

    Dealer to

    Dealer77%

    Dealer to

    Client

    23%

    $0

    $5

    $10

    $15

    $20

    $25

    $30

    Gross Net

    Index Single Name

    $25.0 tn

    $2.4 tn

    90% Compression

    from Gross to Net

    CDS exposure

    $0

    $2

    $4

    $6

    $8

    $10

    $12

    $14

    $16

    201

    0

    201

    1

    201

    2

    201

    3

    201

    4

    201

    5

    201

    6

    201

    7

    201

    8

    201

    9

    202

    0

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    120%Cumulative Single Name Notional Outstanding ($ tn) Cumulative Notional % Outstanding

    Average Years to Swap

    Term ination: 2.7 years

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    In te res t Rat e Sw aps: t he upc om ing $437 tnoppor tun i ty

    Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.

    35% of global interest rate swap products are U.S.based

    More than three-quarters are interest rate swaps,plain vanilla and somewhat easy to standardize

    Roughly 60% of product is dealer-to-dealer, with theremaining 40% up for client central clearing and thusimpacted by U.S. regulatory changes

    Interest Rate Swap Clearing Opportunity

    Options9%

    Eligible to clear by

    cpty and type

    27%

    Basis and X-

    currency

    6%

    Exotics

    10% Currently cleared

    25%

    Customer trades -

    focus on customer

    clearing

    12%

    FRAs 30 yr +eligibility v ia

    product set

    expansion

    3%

    Eligible w / smaller

    dealers - focus on

    increased

    Sw apclear 8%

    Backloading

    program to

    address

    More bespoke structures

    w hose eligibility w ill

    require further product

    expansion

    Intere st Rate Swaps by Derivative Type: Total: $437 tn

    Options

    11%

    Interest rate sw aps

    78%

    Forward rate

    agreements

    11%

    Interest Rate Swaps by Currency: Total $437 tn

    Swedish krona

    1%

    Sterling

    7%

    CAD

    1%

    Swiss franc

    1%

    Other

    4%

    Euro

    38%

    US dollar

    35%

    Yen

    13%

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    Cl ient Clear ing U.S. denom inat ed sw aps ist he ta rge ted In te res t Rat e produc t

    Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.

    The interest rate swap market is the focus of

    the next leg of clearing. It represents 72% ofthe global OTC market

    Total Global Interest Rate Swap

    Market:$437 tn

    Dealer to Client(25%):

    $109 tn

    USDSwaps:(35%):

    $39 tn

    Dealer to Dealer transactions (52%) are clearedat LCH SwapClear

    The clearing opportunity lies in plain vanillaclient transactions

    The initial opportunity to clear will be in USDdenominated swaps

    However, their could emerge global solutionsfollowing a successful U.S. Launch

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    Could be up t o $570 bn in IRS in i t ia l m arg inrequi rem ent s needed for USD sw aps

    Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.

    We estimate USD swapsaccount for 35% of totalglobal swaps.

    Initial margin

    requirements are likely tobe 1%-5% of notionalbased on duration

    We estimate clients mayneed to post up to $570

    bn in initial margin onswap positions for USDswaps

    The size of the client swapmarket may decline

    meaningfully with highercosts/margin

    Today, there is a deminimis amount of margincollected on client swaps

    outside hedge fundclients

    NDAQ and CME have announced they would offer an interest rate swapproduct for clients; LCH SwapClear has also launched a client product

    NDAQs IDCG indicated it would charge $1/$100K of notional valuecleared per contract

    Average duration is 5-7 years for most plain vanilla swaps

    Duration

    Less than 1

    Year

    Between 1-5

    Years Over 5 Years Total

    Total Interest Rate OTC Global Market ($ bn) 159,143 128,301 149,754 437,198

    % of total 36% 29% 34% 100%

    U.S. denominated swaps, % of total 35%U.S. denominated swaps, in $ bn 56,118 45,242 52,807 154,167

    % of original interest rate swap notional value 35% 35% 35% 35%

    Transaction Type

    Dealer-to-Dealer 60%

    Dealer-to-Client 25%

    Non-Clearable (bespoke, option, basis) 15%

    Dealer-to-Client summary of notional exposure ($ bn) 14,029 11,311 13,202 38,542% of original interest rate swap notional value 9% 9% 9% 9%

    Estimated Compression (netting, tear-ups) 25%

    Net Exposure 10,522 8,483 9,901 28,906

    % of original interest rate swap notional value 7% 7% 7% 7%

    Initial Margin required for U.S. denominated Swaps (est) 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0%

    Initial Margin required for U.S. firms ($ bn, est) $105 $170 $297 $572

    Interest Rate Margin Estimates for U.S. Clients ($ bn)

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    How w e th ink about t he i nt e rest rat e sw apc lear ing oppor t un i t y : up t o $400 m n annual ly

    The only part of the market up for competition is the dealer-to-clientIRS market, about 25% of the total IRS market, or about $39 tn innotional

    There is limited netting given client positions are bespoke

    Potential revenue opportunity from clearing of $100-$400 mn over time,though this could take 4-7 years to achieve

    Notes

    Total Global Interest Rate Swap Notional Outstanding $437,198,000,000,000 $437 tn

    U.S. Percentage of total 35%

    U.S. Dollar denominated IRS $154,167,000,000,000

    Swap participant break-down

    Dealer to Dealer - plain vanilla 60% $92,500,200,000,000 Already within LCH SwapClear Clearing mechanism

    Dealer to Client - plain vanilla 25% $38,541,750,000,000 Target market opportunity

    Other (bespoke, option, basis, etc) 15% $23,125,050,000,000 Will require initial margin, not likely to be cleared

    Dealer to Client Notional $38,541,750,000,000 This is the sector CME, NDAQ are pursuing

    Number of 'one $ mn units' 38,541,750 Assumes full backloading, probably takes 4-7 years to reach this level

    Potential Clearing Revenues Cost per million Potential revenue$2 $77,083,500

    $5 $192,708,750

    $10 $385,417,500 This is IDCG's target pricing

    Summary

    Interest Rate Swap Clearing opportunity

    Source: Goldman Sachs Research

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    Consum er p ro tec t ion

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    Reso lut ion Aut hor it y

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    Capi t a l leve ls are bac k t o pre-c r is is leve ls

    Source: Company reports, Goldman Sachs Research

    50% of banks have >8% Tier 1 commonCapital ratios back to pre-crisis levels

    ~5.8%

    ~8.3%

    ~11.0%

    3.0%

    4.0%

    5.0%

    6.0%

    7.0%

    8.0%

    9.0%

    10.0%

    11.0%

    12.0%

    13.0%

    1Q91

    2Q92

    3Q93

    4Q94

    1Q96

    2Q97

    3Q98

    4Q99

    1Q01

    2Q02

    3Q03

    4Q04

    1Q06

    2Q07

    3Q08

    4Q09

    USBanksCapitalRatio

    s

    TCE / TA

    Tier 1 Common

    Tier 1 Ratio

    Tier 1 CommonSTT 15.9%NTRS 12.8%BK 11.6%COF 10.7%FHN 9.9%CMA 9.6%CYN 9.4%C 9.1%

    JPM 9.1%BBT 8.7%

    WAL 8.2%

    MS 8.2%

    STI 7.7%BAC 7.6%PNC 7.6%KEY 7.5%

    MI 7.5%FNFG 7.5%RF 7.1%USB 7.1%WFC 7.1%ZION 7.0%FITB 7.0%HBAN 6.5%

    Simple Avg 8.8%Weighted Avg 8.3%

    6.0%

    8.0%

    100%

    above 6%

    50% above

    8%

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    We are about of t he w ay through lossesand cap it a l m ark e ts rem a in ac c omm odat i ve

    Source: Company reports, Goldman Sachs Research

    Capital markets remain open$1.8 tn through $2.1-2.6 tn of losses

    $ trillions

    Out-

    standingLosses

    Cumulative

    Loss Rate Losses

    Cumulative

    Loss Rate

    Subprime 0.9 0.3 32% 0.3 38%

    Option ARM 0.5 0.1 27% 0.2 33%

    Home Equity 1.1 0.1 13% 0.2 16%

    Other (FHA, GNMA) 0.9 0.1 11% 0.1 14%

    Alt-A 2.2 0.2 11% 0.3 14%

    Prime 5.7 0.3 5% 0.4 6%

    Resi Mortgage 11.3 1.2 11% 1.5 13%

    Commercial Real Estate 3.3 0.3 8% 0.3 10%

    Cards 1.0 0.2 20% 0.2 23%

    Auto 1.1 0.1 9% 0.2 14%

    Commercial 6.8 0.4 5% 0.5 7%

    Total 23.5 2.1 9% 2.6 11%

    Losses Recognized as of 1Q10 $1.8TN

    Low High

    34%Average Deal

    Performance-49% 5%-8% 62% 29%

    26

    45

    52

    140

    64

    9

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    160

    2H07 1H08 2H08 1H09 2H09 1H10 TD

    USBanksCommonand

    ConvertsIssuance($bn)

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    Size c aps w ould be a b ig deal but w e renot sure t here i s support t o enac t t hem

    Source: Company data, SNL, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.

    Liabilities would increase through a boom,then need to fall in a bust2% GDP cap implies $2.7TN of shrinkage

    $BN Assets Liabilities DepositsNon-

    Deposits2% of GDP

    Implied

    Decline

    Implied

    shrinkage

    BAC 2330 2,103 976 1,127 285 842 36%

    JPM 2130 1,971 925 1,046 285 761 36%

    C 2000 1,848 828 1,021 285 735 37%

    MS 820 765 64 701 285 416 51%

    WFC 1220 1,105 805 301 285 15 1%

    Total 8500 7794 3598 4,196 1,426 2,770 33%

    150

    170

    190

    210

    230

    250

    270

    290

    310

    1995

    1996

    1997

    1998

    1999

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2%o

    fNominalGDP($bn)

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    Credi t ava i lab i l i t y and l iqu id i t y

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    Less in t eres t ra t e hedging = m ore vola t i lem or t gage ra t es rela t ive to 10yr UST

    Source: Federal Reserves, Freddie Mac, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.

    134bps

    170bps

    224bps

    116bps

    0bps

    50bps

    100bps

    150bps

    200bps

    250bps

    300bps

    350bps

    400bps

    450bps

    500bps

    Jan-72

    Jan-73

    Jan-74

    Jan-75

    Jan-76

    Jan-77

    Jan-78

    Jan-79

    Jan-80

    Jan-81

    Jan-82

    Jan-83

    Jan-84

    Jan-85

    Jan-86

    Jan-87

    Jan-88

    Jan-89

    Jan-90

    Jan-91

    Jan-92

    Jan-93

    Jan-94

    Jan-95

    Jan-96

    Jan-97

    Jan-98

    Jan-99

    Jan-00

    Jan-01

    Jan-02

    Jan-03

    Jan-04

    Jan-05

    Jan-06

    Jan-07

    Jan-08

    Jan-09

    Jan-10

    Conforming Mortgage spread to 10yr Treasury

    Average

    +1SD

    -1SD

    1970 - 1989 70

    1990 - Now 32

    Standard Deviation

    Less hedging = more volatility

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    Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 26

    As pr iva t e sec t or c red i t shr ink s , loans aresh if t ed t o t he governm ent ba lance sheet

    Source: Industry sources, Goldman Sachs Research.

    Transfer of credit to government balance sheet most pronounced in resi mortgages

    -500

    -400

    -300

    -200

    -100

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    Gov't incl GSEs Bank Loans Non-banks + securitization

    USRes

    iRea

    lEs

    tateCre

    dit-

    Yo

    YChange,

    $bn

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    1990

    1991

    1992

    1993

    1994

    1995

    1996

    1997

    1998

    1999

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    1Q09

    2Q09

    3Q09

    Mortgageorig

    ina

    tions

    hare-

    Fann

    ie,

    Fre

    ddie

    ,FHA

    Note: Loan shrinkage data cited here differs from similar data points cited on p14 and p24 as this data point is sourced from Federal Reserve-

    Flow of Funds data while p12 andp28 data points are derived from the Federal Reserve- H-8 data

    % of US

    Credit Market

    YoY %

    Change

    YoY $bn

    Change

    Non-banks + securitization 40% -12% -607

    Bank loans 31% -7% -552

    Government incl GSEs 29% +8% +495

    Total 100% -3% -664

    Non-banks and securitization account for biggest piece ofcredit outstanding and credit shrinkage

    Private credit is being transferred to Government balancesheet

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    Bank s possib le r isk s t o norm al ized EPS

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    Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 28

    Signi f ic ant range of EPS out c om es dependingon leg is la t ion

    Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.

    Estimate risk vs valuation gap to historyEPS risk: from small plus to -20%

    Exchanges

    Asset Managers

    Small Brokers

    Regionals

    Credit CardsLarge Banks

    -50%

    -40%

    -30%

    -20%

    -10%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%

    Potential Earnings Estimate Upside/Downside from Reg Reform

    Cu

    rrentMultiplevs.LTAverage

    Negative, but

    seems factored

    into valuation

    A positive that may

    not be fully

    factored in

    Potential

    Earning Impact

    % Factored in to

    Estimates

    Potential EarningsEstimate

    Upside/Downside

    Exchanges 7% 0% 7%

    Asset Managers 5% 0% 5%

    Small Brokers 3% 0% 3%

    Regionals -6% 70% -2%

    Credit Cards -17% 80% -3%

    Large Banks -26% 20% -20%

    M k t t b di t i

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    Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 29

    Mark et appears t o be discount ing someelem ent o f reg re form

    Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.

    77%

    -40.0%

    -20.0%

    0.0%

    20.0%

    40.0%

    60.0%

    80.0%

    100.0%

    01/01/10

    01/08/10

    01/15/10

    01/22/10

    01/29/10

    02/05/10

    02/12/10

    02/19/10

    02/26/10

    03/05/10

    03/12/10

    03/19/10

    03/26/10

    04/02/10

    04/09/10

    04/16/10

    04/23/10

    04/30/10

    MarketImpliedProbabilityof

    FinancialRegul

    atoryReform*

    *: defined as underperformance of big banks relative regionals, credit cards and small brokers divided by the incremental earnings from

    regulatory reforms to big banks relative to the other sectors

    We estimate the market discounts about an 80% chance of worst case scenario

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    Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 30

    Assessing im pact o f leg is lat ion by i t em

    Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.

    Hit to Industry

    Normalized EPS

    Accounted for by

    Street? Large Banks * Regionals All

    CARD Act 2% Mostly Total risk 25.7% 5.5% 17.6%

    Overdraft Fees 3% Mostly Already modeled ** 5.3% 3.7% 5.2%

    TARP Tax 4% NoIncremental risk to

    normalzed EPS20.4% 1.8% 12.4%

    Prop Restriction 3% No*: BAC, C, JPM and MS.

    Liability Caps 2% No **: assuming CARD Act and Reg E are mostly modeled in.

    Derivatives Legislation 4% No

    Total 18% Partly

    Large Banks * 26% Partly

    Regionals 5% Mostly

    Everything proposed so far could haircut normalized EPS about 18%

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    Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 32

    Break -up values for BAC and J PM areh igher than the c urren t s toc k p ri ces

    Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.

    BANK OF AMERICA JP MORGAN3Q09

    Commercial

    Bank

    Global Card

    Services

    Investment

    BankTotal 3Q09

    Commercial

    Bank

    Global Card

    Services

    Investment

    BankAM & Trust Total

    Net interest income 5.2 2.7 3.8 11.8 Net interest income 7.2 2.3 2.3 1.1 12.8

    Noninterest income 7.7 1.3 7.8 14.6 Noninterest income 4.9 1.1 5.4 2.8 14.3

    Total revenue 12.9 4.0 11.7 26.4 Total revenue 12.1 3.5 7.7 3.9 27.1

    Provision expense 7.0 3.7 1.1 11.7 Provision expense 4.4 3.3 0.4 0.1 8.1Noninterest expense 8.0 2.0 6.4 16.3 Noninterest expense 5.2 1.3 4.3 2.6 13.5

    Pre-tax income -2.1 -1.6 4.3 -1.6 Pre-tax income 2.5 -1.1 3.0 1.2 5.5

    Taxes -0.8 -0.6 1.6 -0.6 Taxes 1.1 -0.4 0.9 0.4 2.0

    Tax rate 40% 36% 36% 39% Tax rate 43% 37% 31% 37% 36%

    Net income -1.3 -1.0 2.7 -1.0 Net income 1.4 -0.7 2.1 0.7 3.5

    Total assets 1,237 224 885 2,345 Total assets 1,161 192 679 93 2,12

    Total loans 702 208 99 1,009 Total loans 450 169 66 52 738

    Adjustment Adjustment Revenue run rate 12.9 4.0 11.7 28.6 Revenue run rate 11.3 3.5 7.7 3.9 26.3

    Normalized provision rate 0.50% 3.00% 0.10% 0.98% Normalized provision rate 0.50% 3.00% 0.10% 0.00% 1.00

    Normalized provision ($) 3.5 6.2 0.1 9.8 Normalized provision ($) 2.3 5.1 0.1 0.0 7.4

    Normal efficiency 50% 40% 70% 57% Normal efficiency 50% 40% 70% 70% 14.8

    Assumed efficiency * 55% 44% 77% 62% Assumed efficiency * 55% 44% 77% 77% 63%

    Annual Pre-tax 19.6 2.8 10.7 33.1 Annual Pre-tax 18.1 2.7 7.0 3.6 31.3

    Tax rate 35% 35% 35% 35% Tax rate 35% 35% 35% 35% 35%

    Preferred dividend 2.6 0.0 0.0 2.6 Preferred dividend 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

    Net income 10.2 1.8 6.9 18.9 Net income 11.8 1.7 4.5 2.3 20.4

    ROA 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% ROA 1.0% 0.9% 0.7% 2.5% 1.0%

    Multiple 10.0x 10.0x 10.0x 10.0x Multiple 10.0x 10.0x 10.0x 15.0x 10.6

    Value 102 18 69 189 Value 118 17 45 35 215

    Value per share $11.8 $2.1 $8.0 $21.8 Value per share $29.8 $4.4 $11.6 $8.8 $54.6

    *: assuming expenses are 10% higher due to the cost of running businesses separately.

    Note: Note:

    Commercial Bank includes Deposits, Home Loans & Insurance and Global Commercial Banking. Commercial Bank includes Retail Financial Services and Commercial Banking.

    Investment Bank includes Global Corporate & IB, Global Markets and GWIM. AM & Trust includes Asset Management and Treasury & Securities Services.

    Corporate segment is allocated to each segment. Excluding $2.2bn of MER CVA. Corporate segment is allocated to each segment.

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    Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 33

    Ana lyst c e rt i f i ca t ion

    We, Richard Ramsden, Brian Foran and Daniel Harris, hereby certify that allof the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal viewsabout the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also

    certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be, directly orindirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed inthis report.

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    Disc losures

    May 6, 2010

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    Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 35

    Disc losures

    Coverage group(s) of stocks by primary analyst(s)

    Compendium report: please see disclosures at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.

    Company-specific regulatory disclosures

    Compendium report: please see disclosures at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.

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    Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 36

    Disc losures

    Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships

    Price target and rating history chart(s)

    Compendium report: please see disclosures at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Disclosures applicable to thecompanies included in this compendium can be found in the latest

    relevant published research.

    Goldman Sachs Investment Research global coverage universe

    Rating Distribution Investment Banking Relationships

    Global

    Buy Hold Sell

    30% 54% 16%

    Buy Hold Sell

    48% 46% 38%

    As of April 1, 2010, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research had investment ratings on 2,821 equity securities. Goldman

    Sachs as signs s tocks as Buys and Sells on various regional Investment Lists; stocks not so ass igned are deemed Neutral.

    Such ass ignments equate to Buy, Hold and Sell for the purposes of the above disc losure required by NASD/NYSE rules. See

    'Ratings, Coverage groups and view s and related def initions' below .

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