Gold Sector. Research Note · 1/10/2019 · Gold Equities Positioned to Outperform Gold –...

Research Note Gold Sector.

RESEARCH NOTE | January 10, 2019

Our disclosure statements are located at the end of this report.

All figures in US$, unless otherwise noted.

Where to Make Money in the Current Gold Sector

Event

This report builds on our Nov. 30 report, What’s Working and What’s Not in the Gold

Equity Market, outlining where there is money to be made. The upside is substantial

and the beaten-up gold sector offers a useful portfolio diversifier.

Highlights

Gold Price Has Significant Upside this Cycle I The current up-cycle began in

Dec. 2015 and has seen gold peak at only 32% above the cycle $1,051/oz low,

versus a median >100% (average >200%) for the past six cycles. Even a 50%

increase from the cycle low would take gold 23% higher than the current

$1,280/oz, yet leave this cycle weaker than five of the six up-cycles.

Gold Equities Positioned to Outperform Gold – Finally! I North American gold

equities are coiled springs, having dramatically underperformed gold since Dec.

2016. Most tiers have recovered just 11–17% of their contraction in the downturn

of 2012–2015 and are at record low valuations (P/NAV) — unlike most sectors.

Historically, gold itself is a strong competitor to the equities, however.

Current Rally Is Being Led by Big Cap, for Now I Gold equities started

matching gold’s performance in Sept.–Oct. 2018 and began outperforming in

Dec., led by the large caps. We use the rally of 2016 as a case study to show how

sharply the equities could rally if the current upturn endures even a few months

and how it could spread to the (left-for-dead) small caps within 2–3 months.

Where to Make Money in Gold Equities I All gold equities will float if a

meaningful (>10%) gold rally occurs, but many of the boats have holes.

o Developers Offer the “Best” Torque: Cardinal, Orca, Orezone, Sabina.

o Explores – the Most Torque: Cartier, Erdene, Moneta, Reunion, Revival.

o Royalty Co’s – Best Bet: Franco, Osisko Royalties, Sandstorm (Top Pick)

o Junior & Senior Producers – the Most Beaten Up, Yet the Most

Dysfunctional: Dundee Precious

o Intermediate Producers – Liquidity & Torque, But Watch for Rising

Costs : Agnico-Eagle, Semafo

Conclusion

We have been students of the gold sector long enough to know that nobody knows if

the uplift since Oct.–Nov. is another seasonal head fake, or a long-awaited resumption

of the up-cycle tide that began in Dec. 2015. If the latter is occurring, there is

substantial upside in gold (>20%), and especially gold equities (>50%), with even a

muted rally. We recommend that investors pick their boats carefully, most have flaws.

We recommend Royalty companies — best designed, best skippers. The Developers

and Explorers will likely be the fastest boats and ideally suited for a rally, despite not

being to current design tastes. The fastest-looking boats are the Producers, but the

Seniors and most Juniors have holes in them and they, along with the Intermediates —

the current favourite design — are hard to control and could well end up on the rocks

with soaring costs, like the last cycle.

Don MacLean, Sr. Analyst | 416.360.3459 | [email protected] Don Blyth, Analyst | 416.360.3461 | [email protected]

Lauren McConnell, Analyst | 416.366.7776 | [email protected]

GOLD

Companies Covered

Rating Target

Agnico-Eagle

Buy C$67.00

Cartier Resources

Spec. Buy C$0.50

Dundee Precious

Buy C$5.00

Erdene Resources

Spec. Buy C$2.00

Franco-Nevada

Buy C$100.00

Orca Gold

Spec. Buy C$1.25

Orezone

Spec. Buy C$1.20

Osisko Gold Royalties

Buy C$20.25

Reunion Gold

Spec. Buy C$0.40

Revival Gold Spec. Buy C$1.85

Sabina Spec. Buy C$3.25

Sandstorm Buy C$9.50

Semafo Buy C$6.25

mailto:[email protected]



Paradigm Capital Inc. | IIROC/TSX member Page | 2

Research Note

Gold Sector


1. Gold Price Has Significant Upside, When the Up-cycle Resumes

Analysis of Past Cycles: The current up-cycle began in Dec. 2015 and has only seen gold

price peak 32% above the cycle bottom (i.e., $1,382/oz vs $1,051/oz). The previous six up-

cycles since 1976 have had much larger increases: median >100% and average >200%.

(Figure 1).

Expect a Muted Up-Cycle, But Still Good Upside: While we doubt the current cycle has

sufficient powder to yield the power of past up-cycles, looking at Figure 1, we think the odds

are five out of six that substantially more upside exists; e.g., a 50% uplift from the $1,051/oz

trough would take gold to $1,575/oz, 23% higher than the current $1,280/oz, yet still be the

second-weakest cycle.

However, Gold Remains Fundamentally Unpredictable: Gold’s price is currently most

closely linked to the USD. The overall setting is mixed, but net positive for gold: slowing global

economy, but plenty of market anxiety and volatility; low interest rates; less upward pressure

likely on rates by central banks but still some; inflation tame but not in decline.

2. Gold Equities Positioned to Outperform Gold — Finally!

North American Gold Equities – Coiled Springs, Having Lagged Gold by Record

Proportions

o Equities Dramatically Underperformed Gold Dec. 2016 to Sept. 2018: From Dec.

2016 to Sept. 2018, the TSXG Index declined 31%, while the USD gold price increased

4% (i.e., a strong negative correlation). The turning point appears to have been Oct.–

Nov., with the TSXG slightly outperforming since Dec. 2018, but it has barely made up

any lost ground (Figure 2).

Aussie gold producers have outperformed their North American peers by 60% since

Dec. 2016. For the most part better operators, we expect the Aussies will

underperform somewhat, due solely to their strong performance since 2016.

o Historical P/NAVs for Intermediate & Junior Producers at Historical Low (Figure 3).

o Most Equities Have Recovered Little of What Was Lost in the Down-Cycle: (Figure

4).

o Sobering Truth – Gold Has Outperformed All Gold Equity Tiers Except Royalty &

Developers Since 2004 (Figure 5): Holding the metal will be a serious alternative to

owning the equities.

Necessary Pre-conditions

o Rally Must Be Perceived to Be Sustainable, or retracement will occur, rapidly (no

goodwill left with investors).

o Seasonal Head Fake? This could just be another seasonally inspired lift, maybe another

mini-rally like 2016 (7–8 months). Gold is inherently unpredictable, but we believe the

odds are that it will rise before this up-cycle ends and that the upside is substantially

more than the downside at this time. However, be prepared to trade.

o Producers Must Convey & Demonstrate Cost Discipline

Must convince investors that this cycle they will translate higher gold prices into

record EPS and cash flow, unlike last cycle (discussed in our Nov. 30 report,

What’s Working and What’s Not in the Gold Equity Market?).

Watch What Happens to Head Grades & Unit Costs in the Rally: We suspect 2019

cost guidance will be up, showing costs already under pressure.

o No Market Meltdown: If a broad market meltdown occurs, gold equities will also likely

sell off. Gold might too, initially, based on past experience.


Research Note

Gold Sector


3. Current Rally Is Being Led by Large Cap – For Now

Current Uplift Dominated by Large Caps So Far: The current lift has seen the Senior,

Intermediate and Royalty tiers increase 24%, 18% and 15%, respectively in the past three

months (Figure 6). Gold is up 8%. The Junior producers are flat, while the Explorer tier is still

in negative territory at -5%. Developers are up slightly, 3%.

Timing the Tiers: Gold funds have limited capital, no inflows and suffered from their small-

cap exposure in 2018, so might collectively be slower to take up their historical practice of

moving down cap early on to maximize relative performance. How quickly the small caps

begin to perform will depend, we suspect, on the retail and generalist appetite and how

enticing the rally becomes versus technical and momentum measures. Retail Setting: Losses

in other sectors, including cannabis, might increase the gold sector’s appeal, now that gold

has some momentum.

2016 Rally Case Study (Figure 7): A short upward burst of gold and equity prices occurred

from Dec. 2015 to July–Aug. 2016. It saw the gold price increase 32%, from $1,051/oz in Dec

to peak at $1,382/oz in July. First movers were the Senior and Intermediate producers up

54% and 38% by mid-February (end of month #2). The smaller-cap gold equities lagged by a

few months, but by mid-March (end of month #3) had caught up and outperformed every

month thereafter until the rally began to fizzle in August (month #8). The Royalty tier

underperformed the other gold equity tiers, but quadrupled gold’s performance and held far

more of their gains after the rally, indeed being one of the only tiers to continue increasing in

2017 besides the Developers, and to hold onto their gains in 2018.

4. Where to Make Money in the Gold Equities

All Equity Boats Will Float – Only a Few Will Be Watertight

Best Safest Equity Bet: The Royalty Companies Will Beat Gold’s Performance

o Royalty companies have the best business model in the sector, by far

Able to create value in flat and weak markets

Still growing: Despite the increase in the number of Royalty companies and lack of

new developments, our discussions pre-Christmas found the Royalty companies

quite busy with new ideas.

o Historical track record of outperforming in up and down cycles: See the analysis in our

Nov. 30 report, What’s Working and What’s Not in the Gold Equity Market?

o Third best-performing tier in current upturn: Up 15% past three months, versus 18% for

Intermediates, 24% for Seniors (Figure 6).

o Favourite Royalty Companies: Franco-Nevada, Osisko Royalties, Sandstorm (top

pick)

Developers Provide the Best Torque, Explorers the Most Torque

o Acute shortage of new development projects and good exploration discoveries

o Yet selling for less than one-quarter of “replacement” cost: Currently <$30/oz mineable

resource.

o Developers and Explorers have dramatically underperformed the metal: Per Figure 4.

Developers have recovered only 17% of their losses from the previous cycle high,

Explorers only 14%.

o Developer tier: Has had second best historical performance among gold equities (Figure

5).

Takeover premiums (62% since 2014 for our Takeover Twenty Developers) provide

unique performance sizzle.

o 2016 rally experience – lag then outperform: Small caps lagged a few months, but

largely caught up by the end of the third month and continued to outperform the larger

cap (Figure 7) for the duration, even 3–4 months after the July–Aug. 2016 peak.

o Not hampered by cost inflation, unlike producers

o However, a wall of financings is likely and will dampen upside

o Favourite Developers: Cardinal, Orca, Orezone, Sabina. Note, however, that we

recommend almost all developers in our Takeover Twenty.

o Favourite Explorers: Cartier, Erdene, Moneta, Reunion*, Revival


Research Note

Gold Sector


Junior & Senior Producers the Most Beaten Up, but Least Seaworthy

o Junior producers have only recovered 11% of losses during down-cycle

Too many junior producers – consolidation needed

Mergers of equals more likely than the big takeover premiums

o Senior producers have only recovered 15% of losses during down-cycle

Growth and reserve replacement are major concerns

o Cost concerns: Will history repeat itself? Historically, if gold prices rise, costs will rise

just as fast (R2 ≥ 0.92).

o Favourite Junior Producer: Dundee Precious

Intermediate Producers – Liquidity & Torque but Beware of Rising Costs

o Intermediates have already recovered more of their share price contraction in the

downturn than other equity tiers, except the Royalty tier, recovering 41% of their

decline versus an average of 14% for the other tiers (except Royalty tier) and 28% for

gold (Figure 5).

o Rising costs are likely to be the shoals that wreck the performance of this tier, if history

is any indication (relationship of cash costs per ounce to gold price R square is >0.92).

o Favourite Intermediate Producers: Agnico-Eagle and Semafo


Research Note

Gold Sector


Figure 1: How Does this Gold Cycle Compare

Source: Paradigm Capital Inc., Bloomberg, FactSet

Cycle Duration (in years, starting with rally portion)

Sept 1976 -

May 1982

June 1982 - Feb

1985

March 1985 -

March 1993

March 1993 -

July 2001

July 2001 -

Nov 2008

Nov 2008 -

Dec 2015

Current Cycle

Dec 2015 -

Present

Up-Cycle Average Median

Duration Years (trough to end of crest) 3.4 0.6 2.8 2.9 7.0 3.9 3.1 3.4 3.1

Amplitude (% change trough to peak) 668% 71% 76% 25% 269% 152% 32% 210% 114%

Down-Cycle

Duration Years (crest to end of trough) 2.4 2.0 5.2 5.4 0.3 3.2 3.1 2.8

Amplitude (% change peak to trough) -65% -43% -33% -36% -27% -41% -41% -39%

Total Cycle

Duration Years (trough to trough) 5.8 2.7 8.0 8.3 7.4 7.1 6.4 7.2

Amplitude (% change trough to trough) 169% -3% 18% -20% 168% 48% 66% 33%

* Of the 6 full cycles one had a notably short rally (1982) and one a notably brief decline (2008), i,e, they were not in the same cycle..

The Up-Cycles (Rallies)

Sept 1976 - Jan

1980

June 1982 - Feb

1983

Feb 1985 - Dec

1987

March 1993 -

Feb 1996

July 2001 -

July 2008

Nov 2008 -

Oct 2012

Current Cycle

Dec 2015 -

Present

Average Median

Low Price $111 $298 $282 $333 $265 $710 $1,051

High Price $850 $508 $497 $415 $977 $1,790 $1,382

Increase from the Low % 668% 71% 76% 25% 269% 152% 32% 210% 114%

Duration of Up-Cycle (years) 3.4 0.6 2.8 2.9 7.0 3.9 3.1 so far 3.4 3.1

Average Price $292 $416 $392 $381 $492 $1,320 $3,258 $2,251

Low Date 14-Sep-76 22-Jun-82 25-Feb-85 10-Mar-93 5-Jul-01 12-Nov-08 17-Dec-15

High Date 21-Jan-80 14-Feb-83 11-Dec-87 2-Feb-96 15-Jul-08 4-Oct-12

Duration of Rally (months) 40 8 34 35 84 47

The Down-Cycles (Troughs)

Jan 1980 -

May 1982

Feb 1983 - Feb

1985

Dec 1987 -

March 1993

Feb 1996 -

July 2001

July 2008 -

Nov 2008

Oct 2012 -

Dec 2015

Current Cycle

Down-Cycle Has

Yet to Begin

Average Median

High Price $850 $508 $497 $415 $977 $1,790

Low Price $298 $288 $333 $265 $710 $1,051

Decline from High to Low -65% -43% -33% -36% -27% -41% -41% -39%

Duration of Down-Cycle (years) 2.4 2.0 5.2 5.4 0.3 3.2 3.1 2.8

Average Price $496 $398 $395 $308 $831 $1,312

High Date 21-Jan-80 14-Feb-83 11-Dec-87 2-Feb-96 15-Jul-08 4-Oct-12

Low Date 22-Jun-82 25-Feb-85 10-Mar-93 5-Jul-01 12-Nov-08 17-Dec-15

Duration of Trough (months) 29 24 63 65 4 38

Duration of Past 6 Cycles

Amplitude of 6 Past Cycle

Rallies

Amplitude of 6 Past Cycle

Troughs

Implied Current Cycle Peak Price


Research Note

Gold Sector


Figure 2: TSEG vs Gold USD — Equities Now Recovering Lost Ground, Just Barely

Source: Bloomberg, FactSet


Research Note

Gold Sector


Figure 3: Historical Intermediate & Junior P/NAV Multiple (5% DCF)


0.20x

0.40x

0.60x

0.80x

1.00x

1.20x

1.40x

1.60x

1.80x

2.00x

$100

$300

$500

$700

$900

$1,100

$1,300

$1,500

$1,700

$1,900

$2,100

14-J

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Spot Gold Price (US$/oz) Gold Price Used for NAV Calculation (US$/oz) Intermediate P/NAV Multiple (%5 DCF) Junior P/NAV Multiple (%5 DCF)


Research Note

Gold Sector


Figure 4: Most Equities Have Recovered Little of What Was Lost in the Down-Cycle & Less than Gold



Research Note

Gold Sector


Figure 5: Performance by Tier Since 2004



Research Note

Gold Sector


Figure 6: Relative Performance of Tiers — Past Three Months



Research Note

Gold Sector


Figure 7: The 2016 Gold Rally – Largest Producers Performed Best at the Start

Source: FactSet

Dec 17 2015

Dec/15 to

Jan/16

(Month 1)

Jan/16 to

Feb/16

(Month 2)

Feb/16 to

Mar/16

(Month 3)

Mar/16 to

Apr/16

(Month 4)

Apr/16 to

May/16

(Month 5)

May/16 to

June/16

(Month 6)

June/16 to

July/16

(Month 7)

July/16 to

Aug/16

(Month 8)

Aug/16 to

Sept/16

(Month 9)

Sept/16 to

Oct/16

(Month 10)

Oct/16 to

Nov/16

(Month 11)

Nov/16 to

Dec/16

(Month 12)

Gold (US$) $1,051 $1,089 $1,238 $1,258 $1,234 $1,279 $1,299 $1,338 $1,349 $1,310 $1,256 $1,216 $1,135

% Change 4% 14% 2% -2% 4% 2% 3% 1% -3% -4% -3% -7%

Seniors 4% 48% 10% 12% 15% 1% 13% -2% 17% -9% -7% -15%

Intermediates 3% 34% 12% 15% 20% -1% 17% -1% 12% -11% -8% -13%

Junior Producers 1% 30% 31% 25% 16% -1% 19% 0% -7% -10% -13% -18%

Royalty -5% 16% 15% 8% 18% 2% 15% 5% -9% -8% -5% -4%

Developers < 3yrs w/o prod. 3% 15% 24% 31% 32% 15% 15% 7% -10% -1% -13% -14%

Developers > 3 yrs w/p prod. 0% 20% 38% 30% 23% 0% 18% 11% -7% -10% -11% -14%

Explorers 5% 13% 30% 24% 24% 15% 21% 19% -4% -7% -13% -7%

Monthly Change from Cycle Low Dec 17, 2015

1 Month 2 Months 3 Months 4 Months 5 Months 6 Months 7 Months 8 Months 9 Months

10

Months

11

Months

12

Months

Gold (US$)

% Change 4% 18% 20% 17% 22% 24% 27% 28% 25% 19% 16% 8%

Seniors 4% 54% 69% 90% 118% 120% 149% 144% 185% 160% 142% 105%

Intermediates 3% 38% 55% 78% 113% 111% 147% 145% 174% 144% 124% 95%

Junior Producers 1% 31% 72% 115% 149% 147% 194% 194% 173% 146% 114% 75%

Royalty -5% 10% 27% 37% 62% 65% 89% 99% 81% 67% 58% 52%

Developers < 3yrs w/o prod. 3% 18% 47% 92% 154% 192% 236% 259% 223% 220% 179% 140%

Developers > 3 yrs w/p prod. 0% 20% 66% 115% 165% 165% 212% 247% 223% 190% 158% 122%

Explorers 5% 19% 54% 91% 137% 173% 230% 293% 277% 251% 205% 184%

Cumulative Change From Cycle Low Dec 17, 2015


Research Note

Gold Sector


DISCLAIMER SECTION

Company Ticker Disclosures

Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. AEM-T 3

Cartier Resources Inc. ECR-T 3

Dundee Precious Metals DPM-T 3

Erdene Resources Dev. Corp. ERD-T 2,3

Franco-Nevada Corp. FNV-T 3

Orca Gold Inc. ORG-T 3

Orezone Gold Corp. ORE-V 3

Osisko Gold Royalties OR-T 3

Reunion Gold Corp. RGD-V 3

Revival Gold Inc. RVG-V 3

Sabina Gold & Silver Corp. SBB-T 2,3

Sandstorm Gold Ltd. SSL-V 3

Semafo SMF-T 3

Note: Please refer to above table for applicable disclosure numbers.

1. The analyst has an ownership position in the subject company.

2. Paradigm Capital Inc. has assumed an underwriting liability for, and/or provided financial advice for consideration to the subject companies during the past 12 months.

3. Paradigm Capital Inc. expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the subject companies in the next 3 months.

4. Paradigm Capital Inc. has greater than a 1% ownership position in the subject company.

5. The analyst has a family relationship with an Officer/Director of subject company.

Paradigm’s disclosure policies and research distribution procedures can be found on our website at www.paradigmcap.com. Paradigm Capital Inc. research is available on Bloomberg, CapitalIQ, FactSet and Thomson Reuters or at www.paradigmcap.com. Issued by Paradigm Capital Inc.

Research Rating System

Paradigm Capital Inc. uses the following rating recommendation guidelines in its research:

About Paradigm Capital Inc.

Paradigm Capital Inc. (PCI) is a research-driven, independent, institutional equity investment dealer focused on sectors and companies that have attractive long-term secular growth prospects. PCI’s research is available on our website at www.paradigmcap.com. Please speak to your Sales or Trading Representative if you require access to the website.

The analyst (and associate) certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject securities or issuers. No part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed in this research report.

Analysts are compensated through a combined base salary and bonus payout system. The bonus payout is determined by revenues generated directly or indirectly from various departments including Investment Banking, based on a system that includes the following criteria: reports generated, timeliness, performance of recommendations, knowledge of industry, quality of research and investment guidance and client feedback. Analysts are not directly compensated for specific Investment Banking transactions.

The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are those of PCI as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. PCI makes every effort to ensure that the contents herein have been compiled or derived from sources believed reliable and contain information and opinions, which are accurate and complete. However, PCI makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, in respect thereof, and takes no responsibility for any errors and

Number of Percentage

Recommendation Companies Breakdown

Buy 93 62% Buy – Expected returns of 20% or more over 12 months.

Spec. Buy 35 23% Speculative Buy - Expected returns of 20% or more over the next 12 months on high-risk development

or pre-revenue companies, such as junior mining and other early stage companies.

Hold 14 9% Hold - Expected returns of less than +/- 20% over the next 12 months.

Sell* 5 3% Sell - Expected returns of -20% or more over the next 12 months.

Total 147

*Includes companies with a "Tender" recommendation

https://www.paradigmcap.com/docs/default-source/research-disclosures/research_disclosures_201901.pdf

http://www.paradigmcap.com/

http://www.paradigmcap.com/


Research Note

Gold Sector


omissions that may be contained herein and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of or reliance on this research report or its contents. Information may be available to PCI, which is not reflected herein. This research report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation for or an offer to buy any securities. PCI, its affiliates and/or their respective officers, directors or employees may from time to time acquire, hold or sell securities mentioned herein as principal or agent. PCI may act as financial advisor and/or underwriter for certain of the corporations mentioned herein and may receive remuneration for same. PCI is a member of The Toronto Stock Exchange, The TSX Venture Exchange and The Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC).

Any products or services mentioned on this website are made available only in accordance with local law (including applicable securities laws) and only where they may be lawfully offered for sale. PCI will not open accounts except in jurisdictions in which it is registered.

To U.S. Residents: This report was prepared by PCI which is not subject to U.S. rules with regard to the preparation of research reports and the independence of analysts. PCI U.S. , affiliate of PCI, accepts responsibility for the contents herein, subject to the terms as set out above. Any U.S. person wishing to effect transactions in any security discussed herein should do so through PCI U.S.

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