Gold Money
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Transcript of Gold Money
GoldMoney
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The Role of Gold in The 21st Century
James Turk27 January 2011
Cheviot Sound Money ConferenceLondon
GoldMoney
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One of the best performing asset classes
Gold % Annual ChangeUSD AUD CAD CNY EUR INR JPY CHF GBP
2001 2.5% 11.3% 8.8% 2.5% 8.1% 5.8% 17.4% 5.0% 5.4%
2002 24.7% 13.5% 23.7% 24.8% 5.9% 24.0% 13.0% 3.9% 12.7%
2003 19.6% -10.5% -2.2% 19.5% -0.5% 13.5% 7.9% 7.0% 7.9%
2004 5.2% 1.4% -2.0% 5.2% -2.1% -0.0% 0.9% -3.0% -2.0%
2005 18.2% 25.6% 14.5% 15.2% 35.1% 22.8% 35.7% 36.2% 31.8%
2006 22.8% 14.4% 22.8% 18.8% 10.2% 20.5% 24.0% 13.9% 7.8%
2007 31.4% 18.1% 11.5% 22.9% 18.8% 17.4% 23.4% 22.1% 29.7%
2008 5.8% 33.0% 31.1% -1.0% 11.0% 30.5% -14.0% -0.3% 43.7%
2009 23.9% -3.6% 5.9% 24.0% 20.4% 18.4% 27.1% 20.3% 12.1%
2010 29.8% 14.0% 24.3% 25.3% 39.1% 25.0% 13.2% 17.0% 34.5%10-Year
Average 18.4% 11.7% 13.8% 15.7% 14.6% 17.8% 14.9% 12.2% 18.3%
Title Slide BoxTitle & HeadlineTitle & HeadlineGoldMoney
Gold is money
Crude Oil Prices (Base of 100)January 1950 through December 2010
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Title Slide BoxTitle & HeadlineTitle & HeadlineGoldMoney
Gold is money
Crude Oil Prices (Base of 100)January 1950 through December 2010
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Title Slide BoxTitle & HeadlineTitle & HeadlineGoldMoney
Gold is money
Crude Oil Prices (Base of 100)January 1950 through December 2010
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US dollar
euro
Title Slide BoxTitle & HeadlineTitle & HeadlineGoldMoney
Gold is money
Crude Oil Prices (Base of 100)January 1950 through December 2010
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US dollar
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goldgram
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Portfolio composition
INVESTMENTS
100%
0
50%
LIQUIDITY
Title Slide BoxTitle & HeadlineTitle & HeadlineGoldMoney
Portfolio composition
LIQUIDITY
INVESTMENTS
(wealth producing assets)
100%
0
50%
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Portfolio composition
LIQUIDITY
INVESTMENTS
(wealth producing assets)
(wealth preserving assets)
100%
0
50%
Title Slide BoxTitle & HeadlineTitle & HeadlineGoldMoney
Portfolio composition
LIQUIDITY
INVESTMENTS
(wealth producing assets)
(wealth preserving assets)
100%
0
50%
- Risk / Reward -
Title Slide BoxTitle & HeadlineTitle & HeadlineGoldMoney
Portfolio composition
LIQUIDITY
INVESTMENTS
(wealth producing assets)
(wealth preserving assets)
100%
0
50%
- Risk / Reward -
- Safety -
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Portfolio measurement
LIQUIDITY
INVESTMENTS
(wealth producing assets)
(wealth preserving assets)
- Safety -
- Risk / Reward -
100%
0
50%Units of
Wealth
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• Gold is special because it is different
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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• Gold is special because it is different– accumulated (saved); not consumed
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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• Gold is special because it is different– accumulated (saved); not consumed
– large aboveground stock relative to annual production
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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• Gold is special because it is different– accumulated (saved); not consumed
– large aboveground stock relative to annual production
– value derives from usefulness
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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• Gold is special because it is different– accumulated (saved); not consumed
– large aboveground stock relative to annual production
– value derives from usefulness• food
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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• Gold is special because it is different– accumulated (saved); not consumed
– large aboveground stock relative to annual production
– value derives from usefulness• food
• shelter
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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Title & HeadlineTitle & Headline
• Gold is special because it is different– accumulated (saved); not consumed
– large aboveground stock relative to annual production
– value derives from usefulness• food
• shelter
• communication (interaction in society)
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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• Gold is special because it is different– accumulated (saved); not consumed
– large aboveground stock relative to annual production
– value derives from usefulness• food
• shelter
• communication (interaction in society)
• Gold is special because it is money
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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• Money is a mental tool that enables economic calculation
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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• Money is a mental tool that enables economic calculation– unchanged throughout history
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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• Money is a mental tool that enables economic calculation– unchanged throughout history
• Currency is a medium of exchange
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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• Money is a mental tool that enables economic calculation– unchanged throughout history
• Currency is a medium of exchange– improves as a result of technological innovations
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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• Bank of England established, 1694
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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• Bank of England established, 1694– ‘invention’ of paper currency
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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Title & HeadlineTitle & Headline
• Bank of England established, 1694– ‘invention’ of paper currency
– banknotes circulated current in place of gold/silver coins safely stored in vault
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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Title & HeadlineTitle & Headline
• Bank of England established, 1694– ‘invention’ of paper currency
– banknotes circulated current in place of gold/silver coins safely stored in vault
– currency changes from a tangible asset to a bank liability
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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Title & HeadlineTitle & Headline
• Bank of England established, 1694– ‘invention’ of paper currency
– banknotes circulated current in place of gold/silver coins safely stored in vault
– currency changes from a tangible asset to a bank liability
– creation of payment risk a/k/a “Herstatt risk”
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
Title Slide Box
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Title & HeadlineTitle & Headline
• Bank of England established, 1694– ‘invention’ of paper currency
– banknotes circulated current in place of gold/silver coins safely stored in vault
– currency changes from a tangible asset to a bank liability
– creation of payment risk a/k/a “Herstatt risk”
– first bank crisis in 1696
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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• Newton’s Gold Standard, 1700-1914
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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• Newton’s Gold Standard, 1700-1914– defined one British pound as an
unchanging weight of gold
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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• Newton’s Gold Standard, 1700-1914– defined one British pound as an unchanging
weight of gold
– pound banknote redeemable into gold on demand
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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Title & HeadlineTitle & Headline
• Newton’s Gold Standard, 1700-1914– defined one British pound as an unchanging weight of
gold
– pound banknote redeemable into gold on demand
– Bank of England responsible for ensuring redeemability
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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Title & HeadlineTitle & Headline
• Newton’s Gold Standard, 1700-1914– defined one British pound as an unchanging weight of gold
– pound banknote redeemable into gold on demand
– Bank of England responsible for ensuring redeemability
– voluntary rules ensure system’s automaticity
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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• Newton’s Gold Standard, 1700-1914– defined one British pound as an unchanging weight of gold
– pound banknote redeemable into gold on demand
– Bank of England responsible for ensuring redeemability
– voluntary rules ensure system’s automaticity
– gold is backbone of British empire
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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• Peel’s Bank Act, 1844
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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• Peel’s Bank Act, 1844– limits quantity of pound banknotes
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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• Peel’s Bank Act, 1844– limits quantity of pound banknotes
– unintended consequence is the development of deposit currency
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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• Peel’s Bank Act, 1844– limits quantity of pound banknotes
– unintended consequence is the development of deposit currency
– payment risk escalates
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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Title & HeadlineTitle & Headline
• Peel’s Bank Act, 1844– limits quantity of pound banknotes
– unintended consequence is the development of deposit currency
– payment risk escalates
– new British banking model eventually adopted worldwide
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
Title Slide Box
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Title & HeadlineTitle & Headline
• Peel’s Bank Act, 1844– limits quantity of pound banknotes
– unintended consequence is the development of deposit currency
– payment risk escalates
– new British banking model eventually adopted worldwide
– seed for “too big too fail”
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
Title Slide Box
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Title & HeadlineTitle & Headline
• Peel’s Bank Act, 1844– limits quantity of pound banknotes
– unintended consequence is the development of deposit currency
– payment risk escalates
– new British banking model eventually adopted worldwide
– seed for “too big too fail”• 2 functions within one bank
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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• Keynesian revolution begins
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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• Keynesian revolution begins– “The gold standard is already a
barbarous relic.” J.M. Keynes, 1923
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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Title & HeadlineTitle & Headline
• Keynesian revolution begins– “The gold standard is already a barbarous
relic.” J.M. Keynes, 1923
– governments chafe at the discipline imposed by the gold standard
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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Title & HeadlineTitle & Headline
• Keynesian revolution begins– “The gold standard is already a barbarous relic.” J.M. Keynes,
1923
– governments chafe at the discipline imposed by the gold standard
– governments claim that currency managed by central banks can eliminate the boom/bust cycle
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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• Keynesian revolution succeeds
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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• Keynesian revolution succeeds– ‘Gold Standard’ finally disappears 1971
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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• Keynesian revolution succeeds– ‘Gold Standard’ finally disappears 1971
– US dollar and other currencies no longer redeemable into gold
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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• Keynesian revolution succeeds– ‘Gold Standard’ finally disappears 1971
– US dollar and other currencies no longer redeemable into gold
– governments can now create currency without limit
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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• Keynesian revolution is ending
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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• Keynesian revolution is ending– when currency can be created without
limit, there are consequences
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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Title & HeadlineTitle & Headline
• Keynesian revolution is ending– when currency can be created without limit,
there are consequences
– these include inflation, global imbalances and sovereign wealth funds
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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• Keynesian revolution is ending– when currency can be created without limit, there are
consequences
– these include inflation, global imbalances and sovereign wealth funds
– “Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world.” Alan Greenspan, 1999
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
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• Keynesian revolution is ending– when currency can be created without limit, there are consequences
– these include inflation, global imbalances and sovereign wealth funds
– “Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world.” Alan Greenspan, 1999
– gold remains the standard by which all things are measured – gold is money
GoldMoneyGold, money & currency
Title Slide BoxTitle & HeadlineTitle & HeadlineGoldMoney
Gold is money
Crude Oil Prices (Base of 100)January 1950 through December 2010
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2000
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6000
8000
British pound
US dollar
euro
goldgram
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Stocks or Cash
Dow Jones Industrials in GoldDecember 1913 through December 2010
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100
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1
2
5
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20
3040
Log Scale
goldgrams ounces
DJIA expensive / gold cheap
DJIA cheap / gold expensive
Title Slide BoxTitle & HeadlineTitle & HeadlineGoldMoney
Dow Jones Industrials in GoldDecember 1913 through December 2010
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
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100
200
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1000
1
2
5
10
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3040
Log Scale
goldgrams ounces
DJIA expensive / gold cheap
DJIA cheap / gold expensive
Stocks or Cash
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Boom & Bust
December 1913 through December 2010
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1
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20
3040
Log Scale
goldgrams ouncesStocks expensive / gold cheap
stocks cheap / gold expensive
Dow Jones
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Boom & Bust
December 1913 through December 2010
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100
200
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1000
1
2
5
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20
3040
Log Scale
goldgrams ouncesStocks expensive / gold cheap
stocks cheap / gold expensive
Dow Jones FTSE
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Boom & Bust
December 1913 through December 2010
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100
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1000
1
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5
10
20
3040
Log Scale
goldgrams ouncesStocks expensive / gold cheap
stocks cheap / gold expensive
DAX
Dow Jones FTSE
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• A safe place to put our money
GoldMoneyMoney for the 21st century
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Title & HeadlineTitle & Headline
• A safe place to put our money–Not banks because of the boom
and bust cycle caused by fractional reserve banking
GoldMoneyMoney for the 21st century
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Title & HeadlineTitle & Headline
• A safe place to put our money–Not banks because of the boom
and bust cycle caused by fractional reserve banking
• An efficient – low cost – currency for global commerce
GoldMoneyMoney for the 21st century
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Title & HeadlineTitle & Headline
• A safe place to put our money–Not banks because of the boom and
bust cycle caused by fractional reserve banking
• An efficient – low cost – currency for global commerce–No clearing, settlement & payment
risk
GoldMoneyMoney for the 21st century
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GoldMoney
•Open system
National currency
•Cartel
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Title & HeadlineTitle & HeadlineGoldMoney
GoldMoney
•Open system
•Modern built
National currency
•Cartel
• Legacy built
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Title & HeadlineTitle & HeadlineGoldMoney
GoldMoney
•Open system
•Modern built
•Asset based
National currency
•Cartel
• Legacy built
• Liability based
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GoldMoney
•Open system
•Modern built
•Asset based
• Private issued
National currency
•Cartel
• Legacy built
• Liability based
•Gov’t issued
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GoldMoney
•Open system
•Modern built
•Asset based
• Private issued
•Market based
National currency
•Cartel
• Legacy built
• Liability based
•Gov’t issued
• Politics based
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“The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to
produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at no cost.”
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke
GoldMoney
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The path to hyperinflation
Correlation of Fed Monetizing to S&P 500 IndexJanuary 2, 2009 through January 21, 2011
2009 2010 2011
700
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1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5trillions
S&P 500
S&P 500 Index(left scale)
Fed Monetizationof Securities(right scale)
Title Slide BoxTitle & HeadlineTitle & HeadlineGoldMoney
The path to hyperinflation
Correlation of Fed Monetizing to S&P 500 IndexJanuary 2, 2009 through January 21, 2011
2009 2010 2011
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
Fed Announces "Quantitative Easing"
trillionsS&P 500
S&P 500 Index(left scale)
Fed Monetizationof Securities(right scale)
Title Slide BoxTitle & HeadlineTitle & HeadlineGoldMoney
The path to hyperinflation
Correlation of Fed Monetizing to S&P 500 IndexJanuary 2, 2009 through January 21, 2011
2009 2010 2011
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
Fed Announces "Quantitative Easing"
trillionsS&P 500
S&P 500 Index(left scale)
Fed Monetizationof Securities(right scale)
Title Slide BoxTitle & HeadlineTitle & HeadlineGoldMoney
The path to hyperinflation
Correlation of Fed Monetizing to S&P 500 IndexJanuary 2, 2009 through January 21, 2011
2009 2010 2011
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
Fed Announces "Quantitative Easing"
trillionsS&P 500
S&P 500 Index(left scale)
Fed Monetizationof Securities(right scale)
Title Slide BoxTitle & HeadlineTitle & HeadlineGoldMoney
The path to hyperinflation
Correlation of Fed Monetizing to S&P 500 IndexJanuary 2, 2009 through January 21, 2011
2009 2010 2011
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
Fed Announces "Quantitative Easing"
trillions
Fed Announces End of "QE"
S&P 500
S&P 500 Index(left scale)
Fed Monetizationof Securities(right scale)
FGMR.com
Title Slide BoxTitle & HeadlineTitle & HeadlineGoldMoney
The path to hyperinflation
Correlation of Fed Monetizing to S&P 500 IndexJanuary 2, 2009 through January 21, 2011
2009 2010 2011
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
Fed Announces "Quantitative Easing"
trillions
Fed Announces End of "QE"
S&P 500
Fed Ends "QE"
S&P 500 Index(left scale)
Fed Monetizationof Securities(right scale)
FGMR.com
Title Slide BoxTitle & HeadlineTitle & HeadlineGoldMoney
The path to hyperinflation
Correlation of Fed Monetizing to S&P 500 IndexJanuary 2, 2009 through January 21, 2011
2009 2010 2011
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
Fed Announces "Quantitative Easing"
trillions
Fed Announces End of "QE"
S&P 500
Fed Ends "QE"
S&P 500 Index(left scale)
Fed Monetizationof Securities(right scale)
"QE2" Begins
Title Slide BoxTitle & HeadlineTitle & HeadlineGoldMoney
The US dollar’s problem
Federal Tax Receipts Tumble As Outlays & Debt SoarJanuary 2000 - December 2010 (US dollars in billions)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11125
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Outlays (12-mon. mov.avg.) - left scale
Log scales
Title Slide BoxTitle & HeadlineTitle & HeadlineGoldMoney
The US dollar’s problem
Federal Tax Receipts Tumble As Outlays & Debt SoarJanuary 2000 - December 2010 (US dollars in billions)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11125
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350
Outlays (12-mon. mov.avg.) - left scaleReceipts (12-mon. mov.avg.) - left scale
Log scales
Title Slide BoxTitle & HeadlineTitle & HeadlineGoldMoney
The US dollar’s problem
Federal Tax Receipts Tumble As Outlays & Debt SoarJanuary 2000 - December 2010 (US dollars in billions)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11125
150
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350
Outlays (12-mon. mov.avg.) - left scaleReceipts (12-mon. mov.avg.) - left scale
Log scales
Title Slide BoxTitle & HeadlineTitle & HeadlineGoldMoney
The US dollar’s problem
Federal Tax Receipts Tumble As Outlays & Debt SoarJanuary 2000 - December 2010 (US dollars in billions)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11125
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350
4,000
6,000
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Federal Debt, quarterly - right scale
Outlays (12-mon. mov.avg.) - left scaleReceipts (12-mon. mov.avg.) - left scale
Log scales
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The British pound’s problem
UK Tax Receipts Tumble As Outlays & Debt SoarJanuary 2005 - November 2010 (British pounds in billions)
05 06 07 08 09 10 11
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1,000
UK Debt, quarterly - right scale
Outlays (12-mon. mov.avg.) - left scaleReceipts (12-mon. mov.avg.) - left scale
Log scales
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“The main thing we miss today is a universal money, a standard of value, the link between the past and the future and the cement of
civilization linking remote parts of the human race to one another.”
Robert Mundell, Nobel Laureate, 1999
GoldMoney
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“Money in the 21st century will surely prove to be as different from the money of the current century as our money is from that of the previous century.”
Jerry Jordan, President, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, 1996
GoldMoney
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www.goldmoney.com
GoldMoney