Gold Company Review Exploration, Development & Production · Underground mining grades at Morning...
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Gold Company ReviewExploration, Development & ProductionMarch Quarter 2010
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Resource Capital Research
Resource Capital Research
Suite 1306 183 Kent Street Sydney, NSW 2000
Tel: +612 9252 9405 Fax: +612 9251 2859 Email: [email protected]: www.rcresearch.com.au
Resource Capital Research ACN 111 622 489
Gold Company ReviewMarch Quarter 2010
Resource Analyst (Gold): Dr Tony Parry
Resource Analyst: John WilsonResource Analyst: Dr Trent Allen
This report is subject to copyright and may not be redistributed without written permission from RCR. The information contained in this report is for use by US, Canadian andAustralian residents only. Copies are available for purchasefrom RCR.
30 March 2010
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Resource Capital Research
March Quarter 2010 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2010 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 2
Contents Contents.............................................................................................................................2 Overview and Investment Comment .......................................................................................3 RCR March Quarter 2010 Featured Company Summary .............................................................4 Comparative Charts..............................................................................................................6 Financial Data .....................................................................................................................7 Company Statistics...............................................................................................................7 Reserves, Resources and Historic Mineralisation .......................................................................8 Valuation and Performance Data ............................................................................................8 Exploration, Development and Production Companies
[A1 Minerals Limited…………………………………………….……….…………………………………………………………...] Allied Gold Limited *...................................................................................................9 [Ampella Mining Limited………………………………………………………………………………………………………………] [Azumah Resources Limited………………………………………..…………………………………………………………..…] Beacon Minerals Limited............................................................................................ 11 Catalpa Resources Limited......................................................................................... 13 Eleckra Mines Limited ............................................................................................... 15 Kingsgate Consolidated Limited * ............................................................................... 17 Morning Star Gold NL................................................................................................ 19 Nevsun Resources Limited ......................................................................................... 21 Norseman Gold Plc * ................................................................................................ 23 North Queensland Metals Limited ............................................................................... 25 [Perseus Mining Limited………………………………………………………………………………………………………………] Vantage Goldfields Limited ........................................................................................ 27 [West Wits Limited………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………] YTC Resources Limited.............................................................................................. 29
[Gold Market Fundamentals……………………………………….……………………………………………………………………………] Selected Charts and Gold Sector Statistics............................................................................. 31 Report Contributors............................................................................................................33 Disclosure and Disclaimer.................................................................................................... 34
* Indicates companies with detailed financial projections and valuation available.
[This is the Abridged Version of the March Quarter RCR Gold Company Review. The comprehensive version of the Gold Company Review which includes all company reports and a review of gold market fundamentals (58 pages) can be purchased for A$2,200. The comprehensive versions of the RCR March quarter uranium and iron ore reports can also be purchased for the same price. Contents and purchase details can be found at www.rcresearch.com.au]
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Resource Capital Research
March Quarter 2010 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2010 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 3
Overview and Investment Comment
Gold Price outlook After a speculative surge in November and December 2009, which saw gold peak at an all time high of US$1,215.70/oz, it appears that the US dollar has returned to the ascendancy as the main driver of the gold price in the short to medium term. RCR expects the gold price to trend downwards and spend most of the remainder of 2010 in the range US$1,050/oz to US$1,100/oz. Our forecast for that period is an average price of US$1,075/oz. The spot price of gold is currently US$1,107.00/oz (March 30) which is down 9% from the December 2009 all time high. Over the past three months the gold price has firmed slightly from US$1,096.80/oz (up 0.9%), and has generally traded either side of the US$1,100/oz mark. We are moderately bearish on the outlook for gold in the medium term because we consider that the current uptrend for the US dollar could continue, particularly when taking into account the status of most of the currencies the greenback is measured against. We consider that gold’s supply-demand fundamentals also tip the balance towards further gold price weakening. Key measures of safe haven demand for gold, such as inflows into Exchange Traded Funds (ETF’s) have been weak in the last half of 2009 and actually have flipped over into net outflows in the first two months of 2010. Jewellery demand remains subdued and producer net de-hedging is likely to trend towards net hedging during 2010. Gold Equities Gold shares produced spectacular outperformance in the March quarter of 2009, at the height of the GFC, but since then have generally underperformed. In the last 12 months equity markets have recovered strongly (the Morgan Stanley World Index is up 51%), but the Australian gold index is up only 8%, the Canadian gold index is down 2% and the South African index down 23%. All have underperformed the US dollar gold price (up 21%), due to strengthening producer country currencies. Junior and emerging companies have, however, outshone their big brothers, as is evidenced by an average 159% twelve month share price rise for juniors featured in this Review.
Current * 1 month 3 month 6 month 1 year
Gold Price US$/oz na -1% 1% 12% 21%
USA S&P 500 Gold Index na 2% 6% 15% 11%Canada S&P/TSX Gold Index na -4% -5% -7% -2%Australia S&P/ASX200 Gold Index na 8% -5% 9% 8%South Africa FTSE/JSE Gold Index na 2% -6% -7% -23%FTSE Gold Index FTSE Gold Index na 2% -3% 0% 17%
World Markets (all sectors) Morgan Stanley World Index na 6% 2% 7% 51%
*Table data as at 29 March 2010 Source: Bloomberg, RCR
Gold’s all time high on 2 December 2009 was US$1,215.70/ounce. The anticipated range for the remainder of 2010 is US$1,050 to US$1,100. The last three months has seen little direction for gold. We see near term risk on the downside due to US dollar firming… …and weaker supply-demand fundamentals for gold. Over the last twelve months major gold equities have underperformed strongly recovering broader equity markets, and also the gold price, due to strengthening producer country currencies… …but the junior companies have performed strongly.
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Resource Capital Research
March Quarter 2010 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2010 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 4
RCR March Quarter 2010 Featured Company Summary AUSTRALIACompany Code CommentA1 Minerals Limited AAM Production
A1 has joined the gold producer ranks with first pour at its low capex ~A$12m Brightstar project near Laverton(1.7moz resource). After getting through teething problems in commissioning, we expect the market to focuson potental expansion to >50kozpa within two years.
Allied Gold Limited ALD ProductionExpanding mid tier producer ALD plans to more than triple gold output from its 7.8moz Au resource by early2013, to +300kozpa. This should see both oxide and sulphide operations at Simberi (PNG) and a restart ofthe 120kozpa Gold Ridge (Solomon Is).
Ampella Mining Limited AMX Mid ExplorationAn intial 1.2moz Au resource at Konkerea (Burkina Faso) may have set the scene for a year of strong resultsfor Ampella, as it spends A$15m exploring 110km strike on the Batie West Shear. Drill results are pending atthe Tonior Prospect (surface grades to ~21.5oz Au).
Azumah Resources Limited AZM ScopingAn initial 350koz Au resource at the Julie Prospect has pushed AZM's resource inventory at the Wa GoldProject (Ghana) to 1.104moz Au. Strong newsflow is expected from a second 40,000m drilling program,ahead of a Feasibility Study in late 2010.
Beacon Minerals Limited BCN Advanced ExplorationBCN now has the funding to push ahead strongly in 2010 with drilling of targets at its Barlee Gold Project inWA. It has set an initial 0.5moz target for what looks like high grade shallow mineralisation. This could lead toa PFS for production commencing within 12 months.
Catalpa Resources Limited CAH Production & New Plant ConstructionLess than two years ago CAH was a hopeful capitalised at A$15m. Now it is about to become a ~130kozpagold producer, is in the ASX300 index, and is capitalised at >A$250m. As its Edna May mine commissions inMay, we expect further re-rating towards our A$2.07 base case valuation.
Eleckra Mines Limited EKM Advanced ExplorationEKM's Yamarna belt (WA) exploration has produced a new high grade discovery and probably more withthree major new anomalies to be drilled 2Q10. This increases our expectation of a >1moz resource (0.75mozcurrent), with improved grades, and a share valuation of ~A$0.20.
Kingsgate Consolidated Limited KCN Production, Advanced ExplorationWe are forecasting 141koz FY10 gold output (US$295/oz opex), rising to 193koz in FY12 with plantexpansion. Discoveries of major regional mineralised zones support our view that KCN is sitting in a >10mozThai Au province, which could drive KCN towards A$11/share.
Morning Star Gold NL MCO ProductionUnderground mining grades at Morning Star averaged 22.95g/t in 4Q09, well in excess of current resourcegrades and in line with historic production (~900koz at 26g/t). Milling to produce 15-25kozpa Au via gravitycould commence in Jun '10.
Norseman Gold Plc NGX Production, Advanced ExplorationNGX's credibility and profitability have suffered with recent grade and production shortfalls. However, it is still confident it can get back on track and boost production to ~110koz in FY11 (after ~65koz FY10). If so, shares look very undervalued based on our A$1.45/share NAV.
North Queensland Metals Limited NQM Production, Advanced ExplorationDividend-paying NQM is firming up strategies for additional ore to feed the under-utilised Pajingo mill (60% NQM), to boost Pajingo production by 75% to >100kozpa in 12 months. The clarity should lead to a re-rating of NQM as a growth stock - towards our A$0.47/share NAV.
Perseus Mining Limited PRU Definitive Feasibility StudyA start to construction of the Central Ashanti Gold Project (Ghana) is imminent, with environmental permitspending. Production from the 2.1moz Reserve could commence in 3Q11, with a predicted +300kozpa Aucoming from the CAGP and Tengrela (Ivory Coast).
Vantage Goldfields Limited VGO Production, Advanced ExplorationProposed market debutant VGO plans to expand two mines in South Africa’s rich Barberton goldfields from~20kozpa (CY10) to ~80kozpa (CY13) equity production. Current project resource base is 4.38moz.Proposed A$0.40/share IPO price is below our valuation range.
West Wits Mining Limited WWI Advanced ExplorationWWI will outsource initial ore treatment to neighbour Mintails, aiming for shared ~20kozpa gold production in4Q10 from near-surface deposits on the Witwatersrand Basin. Cash flow will fund exploration for >4moz Auand >15mlb U reef targets.
YTC Resources Limited YTC Pre-Feasibility StudyYTC is on track to start gold and base metal production in early 2011 from the Hera Project (NSW). Aresource upgrade and DFS are expected in April 2010. A near-term value driver could be exploration drillingbetween Hera and the historic Nymagee Copper Mine.
Company Summary
CANADACompany Code Comment
Nevsun Resources Limited NSU ConstructionMining at the US$260m Bisha gold and base metal project, Eritrea, could start in late 2010. Forecast goldproduction is an impressive 900koz Au before year 3, costing US$230/oz including credits. Estimated projectNPV is US$5.11/share at current metal prices.
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March Quarter 2010 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2010 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 5
Explorers’ Development Cycle: Conceptual market capitalisation versus development stage; March Q 2010
Exploration DiscoveryResource expansion; Economic assessment
Project approvals; Funding Construction Commis'g
High risk/ High return
Declining exploration risk
AUS ATN BCN CHZ SAU SGZ
CAN
AUSAMX
AVQ TGX TMX YTC
CAN
AUSKGL MLI
NAV RRL RED
CAN
AUSALD AVO
BCD CTO KCN HEG MLI
MUN MCO NGX NQM
Production
AUS ADU AGD ALK AND AZM CHN CRC EKM GDR KALKOR IGR PRU YTC
AUS CAH KRM WWI
CAN ATW NSU
Share Price
CAN SAC XRC FRG
CAN FIU IAU UME
AUSAAM
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March Quarter 2010 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2010 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 6
Comparative Charts
Percentage share price rise in last 12 months(as at 30 March 2010)
Note: Vantage Goldfields is not yet listed and Norseman Gold data is from listing on the ASX in June 2009.
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Allied Gold Limited
North QueenslandMetals Limited
West Wits MiningLimited
YTC Resources Limited
A1 Minerals Limited
Norseman Gold Plc
Catalpa ResourcesLimited
KingsgateConsolidated Limited
Nevsun ResourcesLimited
Morning Star Gold NL
Perseus Mining Limited
Azumah ResourcesLimited
Eleckra Mines Limited
Beacon MineralsLimited
Ampella Mining Limited
Vantage GoldfieldsLimited
Percentage Share Price Movement
Exploration Budget FY2009 and FY2010(local currency - A$m or C$m)
0 10 20 30 40 50
Vantage Goldfields Limited
Morning Star Gold NL
Eleckra Mines Limited
A1 Minerals Limited
Azumah Resources Limited
Beacon Minerals Limited
North Queensland Metals Limited
YTC Resources Limited
West Wits Mining Limited
Ampella Mining Limited
Catalpa Resources Limited
Allied Gold Limited
Norseman Gold Plc
Perseus Mining Limited
Kingsgate Consolidated Limited
Exploration Budget A$m and C$m
FY2009
FY2010
The average share price rise in the last 12 months for the 15 listed companies
covered is 159%, compared to +8% for the Australian Gold Index, -2% for the Canadian Gold Index, and +21% for US
dollar gold price.
Exploration budgets vary widely. Current or imminent emerging
producers such as Vantage, Morning Star and A1 have more of a production
focus.
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March Quarter 2010 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2010 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 7
Financial Data
COMPANY Aust
Can
ada
USA
Euro
pe
othe
r
List
ed
optio
ns
Share Price (LC$/share)3
2 FullyDiluted
MarketCap Book Enterprise
ExchangesCode Status1 Yr End 52 week Current Shares Opt+W2 Other2 Shares (undiluted) Cash Debt Value Value30 March 2010 Hi Low (m) (m) (m) (m) (LC$m)3 (LC$m)3 (LC$m)3 (LC$m)3 (LC$m)3
AUSTRALIA (A$)
A1 Minerals Limited AAM P June ASX No 0.42 0.11 0.24 197 17 0 214 47 2.5 0.0 28 47 Allied Gold Limited ALD P June ASX TSX AIM No 0.55 0.25 0.33 1036 77 0 1113 342 155.7 0.0 319 342 Ampella Mining Limited AMX E June ASX AMXO 1.39 0.17 1.23 163 28 0 191 201 17.8 0.0 23 201 Azumah Resources Limited AZM E June ASX No 0.39 0.09 0.37 177 16 0 193 65 8.0 0.0 10 65 Beacon Minerals Limited BCN E June ASX BCNO, BCNOA 0.04 0.00 0.03 735 314 0 1048 21 4.6 0.0 7 21 Catalpa Resources Limited CAH I June ASX CAHO 1.96 0.76 1.51 161 15 0 214 242 25.4 65.0 -12 307 Eleckra Mines Limited EKM E June ASX EKMO 0.21 0.02 0.09 196 76 0 272 18 2.7 0.0 8 18 Kingsgate Consolidated Limited KCN P June ASX No 10.30 4.93 8.63 98 5 0 102 845 35.2 0.0 275 845 Morning Star Gold NL MCO I June ASX MCOOB 0.49 0.11 0.33 173 79 0 252 56 2.5 0.0 5 56 Norseman Gold Plc NGX P June ASX AIM No 1.35 0.45 0.79 173 4 0 176 136 16.2 2.0 74 138 North Queensland Metals Limited NQM P June ASX No 0.36 0.20 0.24 199 1 0 200 48 11.2 0.0 49 48 Perseus Mining Limited PRU I June ASX TSX FRNK No 2.14 0.63 1.99 345 10 0 355 684 159.4 94.4 179 778 Vantage Goldfields Limited VGO P Dec ASX * No na na 0.40 224 36 0 260 89 11.0 0.0 27 89 West Wits Mining Limited WWI I June ASX No 0.15 0.07 0.09 122 19 0 141 11 4.1 0.0 27 11 YTC Resources Limited YTC E June ASX No 0.35 0.10 0.21 164 5 0 169 34 10.5 0.0 30 34
* VGO ASX listing subject to IPO
Total: Australia 466.9 161.5 1049 3002
CANADA (C$)
Nevsun Resources Limited NSU E Dec TSX AMEX No 3.66 1.17 3.10 193 8 0 200 597 117.9 20.0 238 617
Total: Canada 117.9 20.0 238 617
Total: Global (US$)4 535 165 1175 3300
(1) P: Producer; E: Explorer; I: Imminent - includes companies with bankable feasibility studies and likely to be in production within 3 years; IHC: Investment Holding Company(2) Fully Diluted (shares, options + warrants (opt. + w), convertible notes (Conv. N), other obligations)(3) L.C. - Local Currency unit (4) AUD/USD: 0.90; CAN/USD: 0.97
Exchanges
Company Statistics
COMPANY
(A) Exploration (L.C.$m)7 (B) Corporate (L.C.$m)7Drilling ('000 m)Code Land (A)/(A+B) %30 March 2010 ('000 ha)6 Dec-09 Mar-10 2009 2010 Dec-09 Mar-10 2009 2010 Dec-09 Mar-10 2009 2010 Mar-10 2009 2010
AUSTRALIA (A$)
A1 Minerals Limited AAM 15 3.5 3.5 17.0 11.5 0.6 0.8 1.7 2.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.4 69.6 69.7 63.6Allied Gold Limited ALD 40 5.0 5.0 20.0 20.0 0.7 1.0 7.9 4.7 1.2 1.2 7.5 4.8 45.5 51.1 49.3Ampella Mining Limited AMX 225 5.0 5.0 9.8 20.0 1.5 1.0 3.7 5.5 0.3 0.3 0.9 1.1 80.0 81.1 82.8Azumah Resources Limited AZM 345 8.0 6.0 10.0 28.0 0.7 0.6 2.0 2.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.1 70.6 73.4 66.3Beacon Minerals Limited BCN 30 7.5 12.0 7.9 29.7 0.4 1.2 1.7 3.2 0.3 0.3 1.2 1.0 82.8 58.9 75.3Catalpa Resources Limited CAH 88 7.0 8.0 16.0 31.0 1.7 1.0 5.4 4.3 2.7 1.0 2.7 4.9 50.0 66.7 46.8Eleckra Mines Limited EKM 450 3.5 2.0 18.5 22.0 0.7 0.5 1.1 2.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 64.3 60.7 68.6Kingsgate Consolidated Limited KCN 130 57.0 52.0 216.0 223.0 4.0 4.0 30.4 16.0 2.0 2.0 8.5 9.7 66.7 78.2 62.3Morning Star Gold NL MCO 24 0.5 0.5 2.4 2.0 0.5 0.2 1.6 1.4 0.3 0.3 0.8 1.0 44.4 66.0 58.4Norseman Gold Plc NGX 161 5.0 5.0 20.0 20.0 2.2 1.5 6.8 6.7 0.8 0.8 2.7 3.2 65.2 71.6 67.7North Queensland Metals Limited NQM 151 5.0 5.0 13.1 20.0 0.8 1.0 2.3 3.4 0.8 0.8 3.3 3.0 57.1 41.5 53.0Perseus Mining Limited PRU 347 10.0 10.0 56.4 49.7 6.0 4.0 22.2 17.4 0.5 0.5 2.0 2.2 88.9 91.6 89.0Vantage Goldfields Limited VGO 16 3.5 3.5 15.5 14.0 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.8 45.5 57.8 35.7West Wits Mining Limited WWI 10 0.0 1.0 16.2 2.5 0.3 0.8 5.6 2.4 0.4 0.4 1.3 1.5 69.6 81.3 62.0YTC Resources Limited YTC 185 10.0 10.0 14.0 40.0 3.1 1.1 1.1 4.7 0.3 0.3 1.4 1.2 81.5 45.3 80.1
Total: Australia 130.5 128.5 452.8 533.4 23.5 18.9 94.6 77.6
CANADA (C$)
Nevsun Resources Limited NSU 13 0.0 2.2 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.8 2.1 1.0 4.9 4.0 12.5 10.4 16.7
Total: Canada 0.0 2.2 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.8
Total: Global (US$)4 21 17 85 70
(6) To convert hectares to acres, multiply by 2.47; eg 100 thousand hectares ('000 ha) = 247 thousand acres ('000 ac)(7) L.C. - Local Currency unit
(A) Exploration (L.C.$m)7 (B) Corporate (L.C.$m)7Drilling ('000 m)
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March Quarter 2010 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2010 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 8
Reserves, Resources and Historic Mineralisation COMPANY
Code Status1 Silver Other Silver Other Silver Other30 March 2010 koz t moz koz t moz koz t moz moz t
AUSTRALIA
A1 Minerals Limited AAM P 150 4.7 1,736 54.0 0 0.0 1,736 54.0 Allied Gold Limited ALD P 1,988 61.8 7,805 242.8 10.2 0 0.0 7,805 242.8 Ampella Mining Limited AMX E 0 0.0 1,194 37.1 0 0.0 1,194 37.1 Azumah Resources Limited AZM E 0 0.0 1,104 34.4 0 0.0 1,104 34.4 Beacon Minerals Limited BCN E 0 0.0 59 1.8 0 0.0 59 1.8 Catalpa Resources Limited CAH I 1,023 31.8 1,908 59.4 0 0.0 1,908 59.4 Eleckra Mines Limited EKM E 0 0.0 749 23.3 6.2mlb U3O8 0 0.0 749 23.3 Kingsgate Consolidated Limited KCN P 1,470 45.7 3,100 96.4 24.10 0 0.0 3,100 96.4 Morning Star Gold NL MCO I 0 0.0 910 28.3 0 0.0 910 28.3 Norseman Gold Plc NGX P 400 12.4 3,700 115.1 0 0.0 3,700 115.1 North Queensland Metals Limited NQM P 57 1.8 60kt cu-equiv. 448 13.9 0 0.0 448 13.9 Perseus Mining Limited PRU I 1,890 58.8 6,270 195.0 0 0.0 6,270 195.0 Vantage Goldfields Limited VGO P 407 12.7 3,465 107.8 0 0.0 3,465 107.8 West Wits Mining Limited WWI I 59 1.8 353 11.0 0 0.0 353 11.0 YTC Resources Limited YTC E 0 0.0 283 8.8 49.2mlb Sn 0 0.0 283 8.8
Average: Australia
CANADA
Nevsun Resources Limited NSU E 1,295 40.3 280ktCu,700ktZn 1,866 58.1 0 0.0 280KtCu,700ktZn 1,866 58.1
Total/Total Average 8,739 271.8 34,952 1,087.1 34.3 0 0.0 34,952 1087.1
(1) P: Producer; E: Explorer; I: Imminent - includes companies with bankable feasibility studies and likely to be in production within 2 years; IHC: Investment Holding Company(2) Reserves, resources and mineralised material published by the relevant company. The applicable mineral resource codes are by country: Australian: JORC, Canadian: NI 43-101, South Africa: SAMREC
* Mineral resource estimates are inclusive of the mineral reserve.
(All Au Mineralisation)
Total Gold (Au)
Gold (Au) Gold (Au) Gold (Au)
Reserves (Equity)2 Resources (Equity)2 Historical/Mineralised Material (Equity)2
Valuation and Performance Data COMPANY EV-Cash EV-Cash EV-Cash
Code P/Book P/Net Cash /Reserves /Res'v+resources /Total Au30 March 2010 (x) (x) US$/unit US$/unit US$/unit 1 month 3 month 6 month 12 month Hi Lo
AUSTRALIA
A1 Minerals Limited AAM 1.7 18.8 268.2 23.2 23.2 -23 -38 23 45 43 118Allied Gold Limited ALD 1.1 2.2 84.3 21.5 21.5 18 2 -29 -25 40 32Ampella Mining Limited AMX 8.9 11.3 na 137.8 137.8 34 98 124 547 12 645Azumah Resources Limited AZM 6.8 8.2 na 46.9 46.9 64 42 155 236 5 316Beacon Minerals Limited BCN 2.9 4.5 na 242.8 242.8 0 33 22 387 20 600Catalpa Resources Limited CAH -21.0 -6.1 247.7 132.8 132.8 13 10 -5 71 23 98Eleckra Mines Limited EKM 2.3 6.8 na 18.9 18.9 11 -10 38 321 55 327Kingsgate Consolidated Limited KCN 3.1 24.0 495.9 235.2 235.2 0 -1 8 72 16 75Morning Star Gold NL MCO 11.7 22.2 na 53.2 53.2 -3 -24 3 183 34 195Norseman Gold Plc NGX 1.8 9.6 274.7 29.7 29.7 -4 -18 -2 na 41 76North Queensland Metals Limited NQM 1.0 4.3 573.9 73.3 73.3 7 -14 -2 1 33 20Perseus Mining Limited PRU 3.8 10.5 294.7 88.8 88.8 13 14 63 206 7 216Vantage Goldfields Limited VGO 3.3 8.1 173.3 20.4 20.4 na na na na na naWest Wits Mining Limited WWI 0.4 2.7 105.0 17.6 17.6 0 -14 -25 20 38 38YTC Resources Limited YTC 1.1 3.3 na 76.3 76.3 2 -13 -2 40 40 110
Average: Australia 279.7 81.2 81.2
CANADA
Nevsun Resources Limited NSU 2.5 6.1 373.8 240.6 240.6 24 28 38 125 15 165
Average: Canada 373.8 240.6 240.6
Total/Total Average 289.1 91.2 91.2 10 6 27 159 28 202
(%)
Share Price Performance Current Share Price
% off 12 month
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March Quarter 2010 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2010 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 9
Allied Gold Limited *
0.55
Debt (A$m) -Mar 10FEnterprise value (A$m)
Avg monthly volume (m)Cash (A$m) - Mar 10FPrice/Cash (x) Drilling - RAB (m)Price/Book (x) Listed company options: Land holding ('000 ha)
$11M exploration budget for 2008.
Experienced board and management.
Resources (includes proven and probable reserves)
Mineralised Material (est., non compliant with JORC)* Note: contained silver is 10.17moz grading 2.77g/t
Contacts DirectorsMr Mark CarusoChairman, CEO S HarveyTel: 61 (7) 32525911 M HouseMilton, QLD, Australia A Lowrie
G SteemsonF Terranova
0.0%
27,000
2.23
0
28
Exploration and Evaluation (A$m)
Feasibility
5,690177.0
35,000
24.32.4
EqtyMt
35.6na
nonenone
1.191.8219.6
na
Porphyry
(JORC)Au
156.6100%100%
41.6
Big Tabar Island100%Tatau Island Au, Ag100% Ag,Pb,Zn
100%Simberi 100%
Simberi 100%Project
Gold RidgeAu, Ag
Gold Ridge Meas+ind+inf
100%
M Caruso (Chair, CEO)
Total
0.0%
08
www.alliedgold.com.au
0.07,805
37.87,805194.4
0.0
0
Project
OptionOwnership/
0
Simberi
Meas+ind+inf
Total
Simberi*
Au, Ag
Probable
Convertible notes (m) 0
Key Projects
Metal
Dividends (A¢/share)
Reserves
Drilling - RC/Diamond (m)40
5
0.0%-26.1P/CF (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)Yield (%)
013.5
013.6 3.8
Gold Ridge
c/off
22.0
17.43
Proven, probable 100%100%
Au
28
13
Equity
20,000
Ore
020,000
Company Comment
Code for reporting mineral resources - Australian:ClassificationGold
34.115.7
Reserves and Resources/Mineralised Material
40
0.0%
88.29
8
2.48.9
7.01.0-1.4-2.4
-9.5
-13.7
EPS (norm) (A¢/share)Net Profit (norm) (A$m) -8.2
CFPS (A¢/share) -1.20
PER (x)
57.45
-22.74.4
0
-68.700.0%
Exchanges: ASX:ALD, TSX:ALD, AIM:AGLD
Capital Profile
52 week range (A$/share)Share price (A$)
to0.330.25
ALD.AUGold, SilverPapua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, MexicoProduction
30 March 2010
1036Options and warrants (m) 77
1113Fully diluted^ (m)
Number of shares (m)
0.0Market capitalisation (undiluted) (A$m)
336.7
336.7
Location
Major shareholders: M&G Investments (19.4%),
Rapidly growing, recently established mid-tier goldproducer and explorer, focused on 100% owned projects inPNG and the Solomon Islands.
Combined reserves of 2moz Au, resources of 7.8moz Augrading 1.25g/t, with potential for expansion
Simberi Gold Project (PNG): forecast open cut production70koz-80koz Au in 2010 from surface oxide, opexA$810/oz with near-term target A$560/oz.
Growth strategy is to develop Simberi oxide expansion andsulphide project, and re-open Gold Ridge Project (SolomonIs): potential 320kozpa Au production by 2013.
Cash Mar 10F of A$155.7m after 4Q09 lisings on TSX andAIM; can progress near-term development strategy withoutfurther finance; debt free and unhedged.
NAV at conservative long-term US$850/oz Au isA$0.78/share, strong upside from current A$0.33/share.
13
2.2
Investment Points
1.1No
Baker Steel (10.7%), RCF (5.1%)
155.7
CILPNGProduction
PNGPNG
Solomon Is.nana
nonena
PorphyryAnalyst: Dr Trent AllenEpitherm Mid Expl
ProcessRoute
1.25
[email protected] Mexico
Early ExplnoneMapimi
A$ 0.33
10.4
2011F
34.8
Expanding mid tier producer ALD plans to more than triple gold outputfrom its 7.8moz Au resource by early 2013, to +300kozpa. This shouldsee both oxide and sulphide operations at Simberi (PNG) and a restartof the 120kozpa Gold Ridge (Solomon Is).
Allied Gold Limited
103.4
JVPartner Type
Au, Ag
PorphyrynoneAu
Target
Porphyry
PorphyryPNG
noneCIL
0.50.51.74 2,115
5,6902,11565.8
1,98861.8
1.13
0
1,988
843g/t t
843
Au
26.2g/t
8.7
Early ExplMid Expl
ProjectStatus
0.0
1,145
30,000
koz
40
2012FYEAR END: June
-6.7231.8
EBIT (A$m)72.6Equity Production (koz) 62.9
7.4
32.9-8.2 134.8
2.1
Production and Financial Forecasts
2009a 2010F2008a
242.7
94.4
3.6
koz
1,145
ALD - Allied Gold Limited
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
Mar
-09
May
-09
Jun-
09
Jul-0
9
Aug
-09
Sep
-09
Oct
-09
Nov
-09
Jan-
10
Feb-
10
Mar
-10
Shar
e Pr
ice
($/S
hare
)
Source: Bloomberg
Introduction: ALD listed on the ASX in Dec ’03 and the TSX and AIM in Nov ‘09. It is focused on goldproduction and exploration in Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands. Gold production: Allied owns the Simberi Gold Mine (PNG) in the Tabar Islands, 60km from LihirIsland. The 275km2 project area was acquired in 2003 and gold was poured in Feb ‘08. The currentmining reserve is 843koz Au grading 1.19g/t, included in a resource of 5.69moz Au (Mar ’10). Expectedproduction in CY2010 is 75-80koz Au. In 4Q09, output was 17.7koz Au (up 24% on 3Q09), at a headgrade of 1.26g/t Au. Open cut mining was 653.2kt (up 23%) for 482.9kt processed, sustaining a 2mtpa-2.2mtpa nameplate capacity at the CIL plant, which recovered 88.5% Au. A debottlenecking operation isin progress that should increase capacity to 2.2mtpa-2.4mtpa by 2H10. Operating cost in 4Q09 wasA$810/oz (down 11% on 3Q09) including mining A$171/oz and processing A$402/oz. Fixed costs are40% of current total, i.e. opportunities for economies of scale. Target cash costs are <US$450/oz.Forecast output in 1Q10 is 14.5koz Au after heavy rainfall and a local landowner protest (now mediated).Expansion plans: An A$30-35m expansion of the Simberi oxide operation (incl. 2.5MW SAG mill andadded CIL tank) is planned for 2H10, increasing throughput capacity to 3mtpa for Au production of100kozpa. There is potential to mine sulphide ore, initially from Pigiput Deposit, which has sulphideresources of 2.36moz Au – a Pre Feasibility Study for a 100kozpa Au, +US$100m expansion isexpected in mid-2010. With sulphide mining in early 2013, Simberi production could be 200kozpa Au. Gold Ridge Project (Solomon Islands): This 130km2 project was gained by a C$145m takeover ofAustralian Solomons Gold (TSX:SGA) in late 2009. It produced 210koz Au in 1998-99 but closed in 2000due to (then) political unrest. ALD has greenlit a restart in early 2011 at a cost of ~US$110m. Productionof 120kozpa Au at opex US$511/oz (LOM) from the 1.15moz Au mining reserve is expected in FY2012. Exploration: Near-mine drilling has proved successful: for example, M&I resources at Pigiput andPigibo deposits (Simberi) increased by 170% in Mar ‘10. Exploration of the adjacent Big Tabar andTatau islands by former JV partner Barrick (spend +A$10m) identified Cu-Au porphyry targets. As part ofits expansion, ALD will buy out the JV for A$5.5m. Gold Ridge exploration should commence in 2Q10. Investment comment: ALD already has a track record of successful production at Simberi. Productionslowdowns in late 4Q09 and bottlenecks at the plant are being remediated but the share price is yet tofully recover, providing a good opportunity for investors that understand the potential of ALD’s expansionplans. At a long term gold price of US$850/oz, Allied Gold’s NAV (5% disc) with an expanded 100kozpaSimberi oxide operation is A$85m or A$0.22/share; however, with Simberi sulphide and Gold Ridge(less 30% for pre-production) adding +200-220kozpa Au, NAV is A$711m or A$0.78/share (fully diluted).
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Resource Capital Research
March Quarter 2010 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2010 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 10
Allied Gold Limited (ASX:ALD): financial forecasts and valuation
A SSUM P T ION S 2008a 2009a 2010F 2011F 2012F F IN A N C IA L R A T IOS 2008a 2009a 2010F 2011F 2012FA$/US$ 0.90 0 .74 0.73 0.76 0.78Gold Price (US$/oz) 834 8 8 6 1,010 912 899 Net debt/equity (%) 4% - 4 % -44% -37% -31%Gold Price Realised (US$/oz) 132 797 1,061 1,005 977 Net debt/ net debt + equity (%) 4% - 5% -77% -58% -46%
Current rat io (x) 0.3 5.0 22.1 11.7 7.6EBIT/ interest (x) -22 na 26 15686 60786
EQUIT Y P R OD UC T ION Debt/operat ing cashf low (%) na 2 8 % 1% 0% 0%Simberi/Gold Ridge Product ion (koz) 33 73 63 103 232 Explorat ion/total overhead (%) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
EV/EBITDA (x) -68.7 57.5 17.4 8.3 2.2ALD Equity Product ion Gold (koz) 33 73 63 103 232 M arket cap/net cash (x) -25.7 2 3 .2 2.3 2.7 3.2Cash Costs (US$/oz)** 271 4 9 0 710 624 435 M arket cap/book (x) 3.3 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.7 ** Cash Cost is direct operat ing cost before royalt ies and by product credits
P R OF IT A N D LOSS (A $ m) F IN A N C IA L SEN SIT IVIT IESRevenues 5 79 76 125 285Operat ing costs (direct) -10 - 59 -51 -77 -126 % Change in EPS for a 10% increase in:Depreciat ion/amort izat ion -2 - 14 -9 -6 -16Explorat ion Expensed 0 0 0 0 0 AUD/USD -42% -58% -33%Corporate -4 - 8 -5 -5 -5 Gold Price 46% 60% 43%Other (incl. Royalt ies) 4 - 6 -2 -2 -2EB IT - 7 - 8 10 3 5 13 5Interest 0 0 0 0 0 % Change in NPV for a 10% increase in forecast minelifeOp erat ing p ro f it / lo ss - 10 - 8 10 3 5 13 5 commodity assumptions for:Tax 0 0 -3 -10 -40 B ase + 10 %M inorit ies 0 0 0 0 0 A $/ share A $/ share %N et p ro f it / lo ss - 10 - 8 7 2 4 9 4 Gold Price US$850/oz 0.78 0.83 6%Net abnormals/extaordinaries 0 0 0 0 0Net prof it / loss (reported) -10 - 8 7 24 94
B A LA N C E SH EET (A $ m) VA LUA T ION (A $ m) Q1 10 C ash and d ep o sit s 0 2 1 14 7 12 4 10 6Total current assets 10 16 9 161 156 163 A ssump t io ns B ase " W hat if " PP&E 13 0 12 9 14 4 19 0 3 0 3 Long Term Gold Price :US$/oz 8 50 1,100Total non-current assets 145 14 1 156 202 315 Long Term AUUS 0 .8 0 0.91Total assets 155 3 0 9 317 358 478 Pro ject sTotal current liabilit ies 30 3 3 7 13 22 Simberi Oxide 100% NPV@5% A$21/oz 8 5 117 Reclamation reserves 0 0 0 0 0 Based on reserves only Lo ng t erm d eb t 3 4 - 2 - 2 - 2 Exp ansio ns, new minesTotal non-current liabilit ies 24 13 1 1 1 Simberi Sulphide 100% NPV@5% A$53/oz 4 15 480Total liabilit ies 55 4 6 8 14 22 Gold Ridge 100% 2 11 272Eq uit y 10 1 2 6 3 3 0 9 3 4 4 4 55
T o t al d eb t 13 6 0 0 0 A sset sNet debt 13 -15 -147 -124 -106 Cash and deposits (1Q10) 156 156Average shares (fully diluted) (m) 394 4 75 935 1117 1117 Rehabilitat ion Fund 0 0
Other 0 0F LOW OF F UN D S (A $ m) Liab il i t iesEB IT D A - 5 6 19 4 1 151 Debt 0 0Cash f low from operat ing act ivit ies Corporate - 3 1 -31 Operat ing surplus -5 11 25 47 157 Reclaimat ion Reserve 0 0 Corporate -4 - 8 -5 -5 -5 N et A sset s 8 3 5 9 9 4 Net borrowing cost -2 - 1 -2 -3 -1 Net tax paid 0 - 4 -3 -3 -24 Fully Diluted Shares (m) 1117 1117 Net explorat ion paid -13 - 8 -5 -8 -8 N et asset s/ share ( A $/ share) 0 .78 0 .9 2 Other non cash items 24 3 1 -7 0 -7N et cash f ro m o p erat ing act ivit ies 0 2 2 3 2 8 112Cash f low from invest ing act ivit ies Valuat ion/Reserve oz :US$/oz 3 3 6 455 Capital expenditure -91 - 3 4 -10 -33 -121 Valuat ion/Reserve & Resource oz :US$/oz 8 6 116 Asset Sales & Other 38 10 -15 -18 -8N et cash f ro m invest ing act ivit ies - 53 - 2 4 - 2 4 - 51 - 12 9Cash f low from f inancing act ivit ies Net proceeds from issue of shares 27 0 0 0 0 Dividends paid 0 0 0 0 0 Net proceeds from borrowings 14 2 3 17 0 0N et cash f ro m f inancing act ivit ies 4 1 2 3 17 0 0Net change in cash -12 2 0 -4 -23 -18
P R OD UC T ION ST A T IST IC SSimb eri/ Go ld R id g e 10 0 %Ore Treated (mt) 417 1,654 1,932 2,936 5,852 Head Grade (g/ t) 2.51 1.64 1.15 1.23 1.43Recovery (%) 98 83 88 89 86Recovered grade (g/ t) 2.46 1.36 1.01 1.10 1.23Gold Produced (koz) 33 73 63 103 232Eq uit y Pro d uct io n ( ko z) 3 3 73 6 3 10 3 2 3 2C ash C o st s ( U S$/ o z) 510 6 51 8 0 3 74 4 54 6Product ion Costs (A$/t) 44.91 38.79 36.02 34.39 27.89 EB IT ( A $m) 4 .7 2 1.3 2 1.3 3 4 .3 12 5.4
Location, location ...The Pacif ic Rim is prospective for w orld class gold deposits. ALD's Simberi Mine is in the Tabar Islands, 60km W of the 40moz Au Lihir resource. Many deposits, including Simberi and Gold Ridge lie on major crustal structures.
Year YearYEAR END: June
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Resource Capital Research
March Quarter 2010 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2010 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 11
Beacon Minerals Limited
0.04
Debt (A$m) - Mar 10FEnterprise value (A$m)
Avg monthly volume (m)Cash (A$m) - Mar 10FPrice/Cash (x) Cash (A$m)Price/Book (x) Listed Company options: Net asset backing (Ac/share)
*Gold prospective tenements, held and under application.
Reserves
ResourcesInferredInferred
Total
Contacts DirectorsMr Darryl Harris(Managing Director)Tel: 61 (0) 8 9476 9200West Perth, WA, Australia
Project
0.0
10.051.28.0
Funding from JV partners (A$m)
1.0
0
1.74 4.003.150.27
Tenement costs ($k per year) -
1.0
Corporate (A$m)
Cash backing (Ac/share) 0.8
0.40Exploration and evaluation (A$m)
A$ 0.03
#NAME?
Production and Financial Forecasts
2011FMar-10F 2009aDec-09a 2010Fto
30 March 2010
BCN.AUGoldAustralia (WA)
Beacon Minerals Limited
BCN now has the funding to push ahead strongly in 2010 with drilling oftargets at its Barlee Gold Project in WA. It has set an initial 0.5moztarget for what looks like high grade shallow mineralisation. This couldlead to a PFS for production commencing within 12 months.
0 0
1.041.2259
2,275
-
0
0.3732.7
0.00
30 30
5,600
Advanced ExplorationExchanges: ASX:BCN
Capital ProfileShare price (A$)
Market capitalisation (undiluted) (A$m)
Major shareholders: Geocrystal Ltd (2.7%), Forty Traders Ltd.(2.0%),
20.6
Convertible notes (m)1048.1
0.0Options and warrants (m)
0.030.0052 week range (A$/share)
Number of shares (m) 734.6313.5
731.4
Drilling - Other/Diamond (m)Land holding ('000 ha) *
Drilling - RAB (m)Shares on issue (pr end) (m shares)
3,5403,951
83Exploration/(Expl.+ Corporate) (%) 60Funding duration at current burn (years)
Capital raisings (A$m)
30
0.0
30
8,000
Ownit Brisbane Service Co pty Ltd (0.8%).
961.7732.7
0.0
t
18,406
koz
11,326
Company Comment
0.9
328
Fully diluted (m)
20.6
ProcessTarget
0.10.8
30- -
357.0
1.69
0.5
BCN's total focus is gold exploration in WA. Explorationbudget accelerating to ~A$4mpa (A$1.7m FY09).
Barlee project (~300km2) - strategic positioning in under-explored greenstone belt N of Southern Cross.
BCN sees production potential from a number of satellitedeposits to reach an initial 0.5moz resource target .
Other mines in this belt include Davyhurst, Copperheadand Youanmi.
Drilling to date indicates attractive characteristics -relatively shallow, high grade oxide ore.
Initial JORC Resource [email protected]/t Halley's E & Phil.
BCN can now fund a more aggressive drilling campaignafter capital raising 4Q09.
50,000m drilling planned for CY2010 ( ~20,000m CY09).
85
4.6
75
-
4,000
1.200.251.20
Gold Au Eq
4.5
Investment Points
2.9BCNO, BCNOA
P Lloyd (Non Exec Chair) Ownership/
Code for reporting mineral resources - Australian:
0.384
100%100%/80% none
OptionAu
none
JV
Mineralised Material (est., non compliant with JORC)
Metal PartnerBarlee Gold Project
AuClassification Project Cut Offg/t g/t
porphyryRoute
intrusives na
6.0
Typena
Early Expl.
0.9-0.1
Cu,Au,Ag
4.6
Reserves and Resources/Mineralised Material
Key Projects
59.2
AuMt
0.10.6 0.3
Mid. Expl. Aus (WA)
02.29
3.4
(JORC)
EquityOre Au
Analyst: Dr Tony Parry
www.beaconminerals.com
M Egan (Non-Exec Dir)D Harris (MD) Project
Greenvale
Status
0.0
0.0
2.00.3
64.0
Location
Aus (QLD)
2.66.70 0.50
koz
0.0
0.6
40,50018,000
0.0
74.0
1.0
8.128.04
0.2990.09
Barlee - Halleys EastBarlee - Phil
80%80%
6.70 0.503.70 0.50
BCN - Beacon Minerals Limited
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.04
Mar
-09
May
-09
Jun-
09
Jul-0
9
Aug
-09
Sep
-09
Oct
-09
Nov
-09
Dec
-09
Feb-
10
Mar
-10
Shar
e Pr
ice
($/S
hare
)
Source: Bloomberg
Overview: Beacon listed on the ASX in October 2006. During 2009 it divested various non core assets including most of its early stage exploration ground in Queensland (precious and base metals) and its interests in various mineral projects in Kyrgyzstan. It is now effectively a single project company, totally focused on its Barlee gold prospect in WA. Barlee Gold Project (80%/100%): This project is in the North Yilgarn greenstone belt, located in the Archean Southern Cross Province, 200km north of the town of Southern Cross, which itself is approximately midway between Perth and the major mining centre of Kalgoorlie. BCN was attracted to this region for three reasons. Firstly, it is relatively un-explored, with only ~10km2 of the total >300km2
having had any drilling (including BCN’s drilling). Secondly, the historical drilling was relatively shallow with only ~5% of all historical holes drilled to >100m. Thirdly, the Barlee prospect is strategically located in the greenstone belt north of Southern Cross surrounded by significant previous operations including Copperhead (1.2moz extracted), Davyhurst (0.8moz extracted) and Youanmi (0.4moz extracted). BCN holds interests in 3 contiguous exploration licences with a total area of ~300km2. It holds 80% of the central EL(77/1297) where all BCN’s drilling has been to date, and 100% of the other two EL’s. Exploration to Date: Aeromag work has identified >20 priority structural targets associated with north east trending regional shear zones. Since 2007 BCN has completed ~43,000m of RC and RAB drillingcovering a handful of the targets and a small percentage of the project area. This has yielded numerous high grade intercepts and an indication of multiple open ended mineralised zones (see map on following page). The mineralisation identified to date by BCN is relatively shallow oxide material. Initial Resource: In Dec ‘09 BCN confirmed its first JORC resource at the Halleys East and Phil – a modest tonnage (384kt) at a high grade of 6.0g/t for 74koz contained. Further drilling in Nov/Dec 2009 produced more high grade intercepts from known targets and confirmed new mineralised zones. Of note was an intercept of 14m @ 45.31g/t from 86m at Halleys E, not included in the Dec JORC resource. Drilling in 2010: BCN is planning to undertake a total of 50,000m of RC and RAB this year. The first program (10,000m RAB, 5,000m RC) commenced in February – testing the W extension of Halleys E, open extensions of Phil (S and N) and a number of newly discovered mineralised zones. Corporate: BCN raised a total of A$8.03m in 4Q09 through a non-renounceable 1:1 rights issue priced at A$0.22/share, including placement of 100% of the shortfall. This enabled the company to extinguish A$1.5m of shareholder loans (it is now debt free) and to confidently accelerate exploration expenditure. A further A$2.45m is likely to be raised from 245.5m A$0.01 options which expire in August 2010. Investment Comment: 2010 is going to be a big year for BCN. We can expect a series of JORC resource statements from the aggressive drilling programs on the Barlee Project. If the higher grades (>4g/t) are maintained, and if BCN shows it can establish mineable resources approaching 0.5moz from fairly ‘poddy’ mineralisation, then shareholders are likely to be further rewarded.
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Resource Capital Research
March Quarter 2010 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2010 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 12
The Barlee Gold Project is 200km N of Southern Cross (WA), in the North Yilgarn greenstone belt Although this belt has produced a number of significant gold deposits (e.g. Copperhead - 1.2moz; Davyhurst –
0.8mz; and Yuoanmi – 0.4moz), BCN’s ground is relatively under-explored.
BCN has identified multiple shallow, relatively high grade, mineralised zones on NE trending shears in its drilling programs to date. An initial JORC Inferred resource of 74koz at 6.0g/t grades at Halleys East and
Phil. Further recent drilling produced an intercept of 14m @45.31g/t at Halleys East.
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Resource Capital Research
March Quarter 2010 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2010 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 13
Catalpa Resources Limited
1.96Gold Price (US$/oz)
Revenue (A$m) 182.3
Debt (A$m) - Mar 10F *Enterprise value (A$m)
Avg monthly volume (m)Cash (A$m) - Mar 10F *Price/Cash (x)Price/Book (x) ASX-listed options: * A$7m of A$65m loan held in a cash retention account, net debt is A$58m.
Cracow **Total
Cracow **
* Resources includes reservesMineralised Material (est., non compliant with JORC)
Contacts Directors Key ProjectsMr Bruce McFadzean P Maloney (Non Exec Chair) Ownership/Managing Director ProjectTel: 61 (8) 9321 3088 Edna May
M Pollock (Non Exec Dir) Cracow B Sullivan (Non Exec Dir)G Freestone (Non Exec Dir)
4.7
47.1
950
169.8120.5
2.84.8
naNCM
Analyst: Dr Tony Parry
47.6
3.2
AuAu
160.8
57.8
10.0
Status
1,530
1,185
4.0
2,488
Project
Aus (WA)
48.8
7%3.7
77.4
7%3.1
86.3
10.05.3
54.533.332.1
5
28.2
4.5
30 March 2010
25.49.5
Investment Points
Citicorp Nominees PL (7.2%), National Nominees Ltd (4.5%)
306.2
Fully diluted (m)
Major shareholders: HSBC Custody Nominees (14.4%), ANZ Noms. (7.9%),
Our FY11 gold production forecast is 126koz.
100kozpa Cracow JV (30% CAH) is now contributing.
Construction of A$92m 100kozpa Edna May plant on track,on budget, for first production May '10.
Total group resource 1.91moz, reserves 1.02moz.
Strong forward sales (~55% for 5 yrs) at A$1,557/oz.
A$20m capital raising and debt restructure further de-risksthe company and will accelerate exploration.
CAH targeting growth towards 170kozpa - potential highgrade Edna May deeps (u/g ore) and regional targets.
Our med-term share price expectation is A$2.00/sharerunning up to Edna May commissioning. (NAV is A$350m,A$2.07/share).
Prospective P/E ratio for FY11 is only ~ 5x.
4.0
55.0Meas+Ind+Inf
Ore
JV
CAHO
1303.1 8.20
1.00Meas+Ind+Inf
1,02336.9
0.00.0 0.0
1,908
0.4
na30%
Key Assumptions:
Code for reporting mineral resources - Australian:
Reserves and Resources/Mineralised Material
868
Au Eqty
100% 47.9
30% Aus(QLD)
Route Location
OperatingCIL
TypePartnerIRG/reef
epithermal
A$ 1.50
Process
52.4
2.8
160.8
Target
Forecasts: Gold price: (long term from FY13) = US$850/oz; A$/US$=0.80 (long term).
27.0 8681.09 0.4
** Cracow data from NCM release 17.8.09
Au
24.8
AuAu
Company Comment
0
www.catalparesources.com.auPerth, WA, Australia
100%
Total
Resources *
8
Shares on Issue (EOP)*
100%
Proved & Probable
J Rowe (Non Exec)B McFadzean (MD) MetalOption
Meas+Ind+Inf
65.0
Classification
P/CF (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)Yield (%)
na
Gold
1171.8
Reserves
-0.07
54.5
-21.0
Greenfinch
EPS (norm) (A¢/share)
Proved & ProbableGreenfinchEdna May Proved & Probable
Edna May
Exchange: ASX:CAH
Capital Profile
31.00
-2.6
00
na
-0.2
0
32.9
4.0
176.88.5
55.784.0
Net Profit (norm) (A$m)241.2176.3
Market capitalisation (undiluted) (A$m)
CAH.AU
Production and Financial Forecasts
2013F
Catalpa Resources Limited
GoldAustralia (WA)Production & New Plant Construction
52 week range (A$/share) toShare price (A$)
EBIT (A$m)
0.00.10.0
15.5Convertible notes (m)Options and warrants (m)
160.8Number of shares (m)
-2.6
YEAR END: June1.500.761
2010F
886
2011F2009a
1,047 1,002
CFPS (A¢/share)Dividends (A¢/share)PER (x) na
Less than two years ago CAH was a hopeful capitalised at A$15m. Now itis about to become a ~130kozpa gold producer, is in the ASX300 index,and is capitalised at >A$250m. As its Edna May mine commissions inMay, we expect further re-rating towards our A$2.07 base case valuation.
Equity Production (koz) 128.2
2012F
125.925.3973
867.27.20 69231
862.7na
3.3160.8
g/t
(JORC)Cut Off
32.6160.8
ProjectMt koz
21.1
100%
Equity
30%100% 2.5
0.71.07 0.5
248130
82825.8
1,530
ConstructionCIL
koz
72.7
3.2
g/t t
0.41.02
CAH - Catalpa Resources Limited
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
Apr
-09
May
-09
Jun-
09
Jul-0
9
Aug
-09
Sep
-09
Oct
-09
Nov
-09
Jan-
10
Feb-
10
Mar
-10
Shar
e Pr
ice
($/S
hare
)
Source: Bloomberg
Overview: CAH was listed on the ASX in Aug ’02, and is on track to re-commence production at EdnaMay in 2Q10 at a rate of ~100kozpa. It also has a 30% JV interest in the 100kozpa Cracow JV (QLD). The Cracow Joint Venture: Situated in S QLD, Cracow is a high grade underground mining field based on an epithermal system that has yielded over 1.1moz since 1932. Newcrest Mining (ASX:NCM) is the operator (70%). Based on high % of resource conversion to reserves and recent discoveries of new shoots(e.g. Kilkenny) it is likely that the mine will have a life well in excess of 10 years. Cracow Performance: In 4Q09 the JV produced 24.1koz. Grades were a bit down (6.97g/t) but cash costs were in line (A$532/oz). We are forecasting FY10 output of 104koz for Cracow with treatment of 452kt of ore grading 7.8g/t. Cash costs US$453/oz (A$115/t of ore treated). Our assessed NAV of theCracow JV is A$161m (@5% discount rate), assuming (conservatively) a 6.5 year Cracow mine life. Edna May Status: CAH reports that the A$92m Edna May Project construction is on schedule and within budget, for the expected first pour in May ’10, 70% debt funded utilising an A$65m Macquarie Bank finance facility (A$7m currently in a cash retention account) and ~30% equity funded. In FY11 we have assumed 2.7mt of ore processed to produce 95.4koz at ave. A$630/oz opex. Base case valuation (NPV @ 5%DR) is A$272m assuming 60% resource conversion to reserves (42mt LOM, 13 year life). Margins are boosted by the spectacular forward sales book of ~70% of first five years gold forward sold at A$1,557/oz.Exploration Emphasis: CAH will accelerate exploration to upgrade existing resources and bring in new resources (e.g. Golden Point gneiss) with A$11m of the A$20m raising allocated to exploration. Corporate Developments: CAH has recently announced a debt restructure and an A$20m equity raising. The debt restructure involves converting mezzanine to senior debt. Meanwhile, CAH has raised A$10m through a share placement @A$1.32 (bringing in two new investment funds) and will raise a further A$10m from an underwritten 1:19 renounceable rights issue @$1.25/share. The A$20m will be utilised for start-up working capital and resource exploration at Edna May and regional targets. Catalpa’s Growth Targets: CAH sees potential to fuel strong growth to ~170kozpa organically through the significant higher-grade underground potential at Edna May, and from the regional exploration potential of the relatively unexplored Westonia greenstone belt, where numerous targets await drilling. Investment Comment: Catalpa’s spectacular growth in the last 12 months now sees it in the ASX300 index, less than three months from first pour at Edna May. The current modest capital raising further de-risks the project start-up and underlines the importance of on-going resource definition and exploration.Our base case NPV is A$2.07share (US$850 long term gold, A$/US$ 0.80). Using spot gold (US$1,110/oz, A$/US$=0.92, long term) gives a valuation of A$2.68/share. We expect that the shares will regain momentum after the rights issue towards a post-commissioning target of A$2.00/share.
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Resource Capital Research
March Quarter 2010 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2010 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 14
CATALPA RESOURCES LIMITED VALUATIONPro forma as at June 2010 post renouceable entitlement issue.
ValuationEquity Resource RCR Target with
Gold Resource Valuation Price SpotEquity (moz) US$/oz A$m ^ Prices *
Projects+ Edna May Gold Project NPV** 100% 1.66 150 272 386+ Cracow JV NPV ** 30% 0.25 238 48.3 64.8+ Regional & U/G Exploration 100% 10.0 15.0
Sub Total 330.3 465.8
+ Cash (est Jun '09) 26.9 26.9+ Tax Losses 9.4 9.4+ Discounted Value of Forward Sales (5% nominal) 81.0 54.0- Debt (est. Jun '09) 65.0 65.0- Corporate Overhaeds (NPV @ 5%) 32.9 32.9
Sub Total 19.4 -7.6
CAH NET ASSET VALUE 143 349.7 458.2
Capital Structure^^Shares (Jun '10) (m) 160.8 160.8Fully Diluted Shares (Jun '10) (m) 176.3 176.3
CAH NET ASSET VALUE PER SHARE :A$/share 2.18 2.85CAH NET ASSET VALUE DILUTED :A$/share fully diluted 2.07 2.68
^^ Capital structure assumes 1:19 entitlement issue is completed.^Target valuation based on RCR long term gold price forecast of US$850/ounce (from 2Q12), A$/US$ = 0.80. * Spot price valuation is based on current spot price of US$1,110/oz, A$/US$ = 0.92 as long term prices.** Edna May and Cracow project valuations based on after tax nominal NPV @ 5% discount rate.
Of the A$20m to be raised, A$11m is allocated to exploration, underlining the importance of further resource definition and resource exploration drilling. Recent drilling of the Golden Point gneiss (see
below) is very encouraging for defining additional resources SE of the current proposed pit shell.
Source: Catalpa Resources Ltd
![Page 16: Gold Company Review Exploration, Development & Production · Underground mining grades at Morning Star averaged 22.95g/t in 4Q09, well in excess of current resource grades and in](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022040621/5f3789e0b156e82daa280826/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Resource Capital Research
March Quarter 2010 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2010 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 15
Eleckra Mines Limited
0.21
Debt (A$m) - Mar 10FEnterprise value (A$m)
Avg monthly volume (m)Cash (A$m) - Mar 10FPrice/Cash (x) Cash (A$m)Price/Book (x) Company options: Net asset backing (Ac/share)
*Gold and uranium prospective tenements, held and under application. ** FY11 shares assumes nominal A$4m equity raised.
Reserves
Contacts DirectorsMr Ian Murray(Executive Chairman)Tel: 61 (0) 8 9486 4144West Perth, WA, Australia
1.6
9,50024,000
0.0
749
6.22.7
0.0
1000.017
23.31.001.78
U3O8
Aus (WA)
Location
Aus (WA)Aus (WA)
0.0
Status
Yamarna - Gold regional
100%
100%K Hart (Non-Exec Dir)R Davis (Non-Exec Dir)I Murray (Exec Chairman)
Project
Analyst: Dr Tony Parry
www.eleckramines.com.au
0 0
g/t g/t
(JORC)
EquityOre Au
1.4
Adv. Expl. Aus (WA)
Adv. Expl.
6.2
04.00
1.8
Alk. Leach
2.7
Reserves and Resources/Mineralised Material
Key Projects
749
AuMt
0.83.1
0
Type
Early Expl.
heap leach
ox/sulpMid Expl.
ox/sulpRoute
1.4
Gold
Early Expl.
ox/sulp nana
CalcreteCalcretenone
none
JVOption
AuMetal Partner
Ownership/
Lake Rason + Lake Wells
Yamarna - Attila 100% noneAu none
100%
Golden Sands 100%Yamarna: Thatcher Soak
3.5
U3O8
100%
16.1100%
13.1
EquityProject
InferredUranium Resources Mt
Project Aukoz
0.0
mlb
0.0
Yamarna - Attila-Alaric Inf., Ind. & Meas.
Mineralised Material (est., non compliant with JORC)
Code for reporting mineral resources - Australian:
6.8
Investment Points
2.3EKMO
0.9
Company Comment
5.0
79
2.7
69
-
1,000
1.200.250.45
2.4
0.40.6
450- -
Au,U noneU
5
Fully diluted (m)
18.4
U
EKM's focus is gold and uranium in WA. Explorationbudget increasing to ~A$2mpa, mostly directed to gold.
Strategic position (~5,000km2) in remote under-exploredYamarna greenstone belt in Yilgarn Craton.
Yamarna (Attila-Alaric) gold resource 749koz Au nearsurface - many untested targets along 17km strike.
New high grade discovery Central Bore - 520m new open-ended high grade mineralised zone.
Additional larger Byzantium, Hann and Central Boreanomalous zones near Central Bore recently discovered,drilling 2Q10.
Initial resource statement for Central Bore 3Q10.
If Byzantium, Hann and Central Bore anomalies reproduceCentral Bore success, EKM will be re-rated.
As resource approaches 1moz and grades improve, our sixmonth target range is A$0.16/share - A$0.22/share.
Aus (WA)
233.9195.8
0.0
t koz
na
Eqty mlbppm%
ProjectProcessTarget
2.67
U3O8 Cut Off U3O8
kt
3.9
2.36Capital raisings (A$m)
450
0.0
450
1,000 8,000
2.66Geiger Counter Fund (4.0%), Asarco Expl. Co. Inc.(2.6%).
14,000
Exploration/(Expl.+ Corporate) (%) 77Funding duration at current burn (years)
192.8
Drilling - Other/Diamond (m)Land holding ('000 ha) *
Drilling - RAB (m)Shares on issue (pr end) (m shares) **
2,0001,500
Options and warrants (m)
0.090.0252 week range (A$/share)
Number of shares (m) 195.8
Market capitalisation (undiluted) (A$m)
Major shareholders: Directors (7.3%), Perth Select Seafood (5.1%),
18.4
Convertible notes (m)271.8
0.0
Advanced ExplorationExchanges: ASX:EKM
Capital ProfileShare price (A$)
1.3195.8
0.32
450 450
15,5003,000
-
170.4
1.010.7161
toDec-09a 2010F
64
30 March 2010
EKM.AU
76.0
Gold, UraniumAustralia (WA)
Production and Financial Forecasts
2011FMar-10F 2009a
Eleckra Mines Limited
EKM's Yamarna belt (WA) exploration has recently produced one newhigh grade discovery and three major new anomalies to be drilled 2Q10.This increases our expectation of a >1moz resource (0.75moz current),with improved grades, and a share valuation of ~A$0.20.
1.10 3.102.210.74Exploration and evaluation (A$m)
A$ 0.09
YEAR END: June
Funding from JV partners (A$m)
0.22
4.0
0
Tenement costs ($k per year) -
4.0
Corporate (A$m)
Cash backing (Ac/share) 1.6
Classification
Resources
Thatcher Soak
Cut Off Au Eq
EKM - Eleckra Mines Limited
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
Apr
-09
May
-09
Jul-0
9
Aug-
09
Oct
-09
Nov
-09
Dec
-09
Jan-
10
Feb-
10
Shar
e Pr
ice
($/S
hare
)
Source: Bloomberg
Overview: EKM listed on the ASX July ‘06. Its focus is the under-explored Yamarna Greenstone Beltwhere it has established a 749koz gold resource, and a 6.2mlb shallow calcrete U3O8 resource. Yamarna Project (WA): (3,000km2, gold) EKM has defined an initial gold resource along the Yamarna shear zone - a regional scale mineralised trend considered prospective for multi-million ounce discoveries. EKM’s 749koz (1.78g/t) resource defined to date occurs in the Attila-Alaric zone along a 17km strike length. The deposit is open at depth and along strike. EKM is targeting total resources of 1moz – 1.5moz Au before commencing a PFS. Recent 7,000m RC campaign 3Q09 focused on two areas, with significant success: 1. Yarmana Deeps: EKM has identified 10 target areas with potential deeper high grade shoots (>10g/t). The first target – Alaric 2 – was subject of a 2,132m 15 hole program in 3Q09, and produced good high grade intercepts. Second target Khan North also produced good intercepts. 2. Central Bore (“CB”): (3.7km E of Attila) – A new high grade quartz vein discovery parallel to Attila-Alaric, strike length of 520m, open along strike and at depth. The 2009 RC drilling program (3,900m, 39 holes) confirmed that CB is a likely source of higher grade ore. New Anomalies: Soil geochem surveys have recently resulted in the discovery of three large gold anomalies - Byzantium Prospect – 1 km long, only 500m from CB, the Hann Prospect – a strong 2.8km anomaly (surface grades up to 2.1g/t) only 1.1km from Atilla, and Central Bore East (0.6km long). These new anomalies are stronger anomalous zones than the original CB zone. Next Steps: Immediate drilling priorities for 2Q10 are the new Byzantium, Hann and Central Boreanomalies (7,000m RC campaign starting April). Second 14,000m campaign will follow 2H10. We expect that EKM will announce an initial JORC resource for CB in 3Q10, after the next round of drilling. Subject to drilling results and resource size, PFS could start early 2011. PFS likely to focus on open pit and possibly underground mining of high grade shoots, heap leach of oxide ore, trucking of primary ore. Golden Sands (WA): (1,500km2, gold) EKM holds largely unexplored exploration tenements north of the AngloGold Ashanti/Independence Group Tropicana gold project (5moz resource). Thatcher Soak (WA): (500km2, uranium) EKM holds Eastern portion of the Thatcher Soak calcrete uranium prospect, (total 20mlb resource - Uranex NL (ASX:UNX) 14mlb and EKM 6.2mlb). Based on UNX recent transaction, we think a deal with UNX would value Thatcher Soak at around ~A$1.00/lb. Investment Comment: The higher grade Central Bore zone discovery has been a real revelation for EKM and a potential significant boost to the economics of this project. If the three new parallel anomalies near Central Bore come up anything like Central Bore, then this will dramatically increase the perceived value and economic viability of EKM’s ground. A higher grade >1moz target will look more assured. Putting a deal value of A$1.00/lb on Thatcher Soak, plus A$3m for other exploration ground, gives a target range between A$0.16/share (A$20/oz valuation) and A$0.22/share (A$30/oz valuation)assuming a 1moz target. Upper level of this range is more likely as a six month share price target.
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Resource Capital Research
March Quarter 2010 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2010 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 16
The newly discovered anomalies at Byzantium and Hann are between the existing Attila resource and the newly discovered Central Bore 520m higher grade zone. They are both bigger and stronger anomalies than
was Central Bore, which bodes well for follow up drilling in 2Q10.
After completing share placements to raise A$2.7m EKM can aggressively increase its drilling campaigns in 2010 with a doubling of planned drill metres – mainly focused on the new anomalies.
![Page 18: Gold Company Review Exploration, Development & Production · Underground mining grades at Morning Star averaged 22.95g/t in 4Q09, well in excess of current resource grades and in](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022040621/5f3789e0b156e82daa280826/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Resource Capital Research
March Quarter 2010 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2010 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 17
Kingsgate Consolidated Limited *
10.30
Debt (A$m) - Mar 10FEnterprise value (A$m)
Avg monthly volume (m)Cash (A$m) - Mar 10FPrice/Cash (x) Drilling - RAB (m)Price/Book (x) Listed company options: Land holding ('000 ha)
** 2010F Net Profit does not include unrealised forex. losses (A$8m 2H09) treated as abnormals.
$11M exploration budget for 2008.
Experienced board and management.
Resources (includes proved and probable reserves) *
Mineralised Material (est., non compliant with JORC)* Note: Contained silver is 24.14moz, resource grade is 9.0g/t Ag Reserves and Resources as at 30 June 2009
Contacts DirectorsMr Gavin ThomasMD, Chief Executive Officer G Thomas (MD)Tel: 61 (2) 8256 4800 P McAleer (Non Exec Dir)Sydney, NSW, Australia C Carracher (Non Exec Dir)
3.5%8.22
80,000
130
Exploration and Evaluation (A$m)
Production
71022.3
60
155,000
95.894.6
Au none
Eqty
100% 1.9037.1
5.4g/t
1.70
0.901.2032.0
(JORC)Au
17.4100%
www.kingsgate.com.au
StockpilesTotal
Chatree
R Smyth-Kirk (Chairman)
Total
Chokdee 100%
62.5
3,100
1.9
81.7
1.7
0.0
3,100
0.50.91
Reserves
Chatree North Meas+ind+inf
0.5
g/t
100%100%Stockpiles Meas+ind+inf
Code for reporting mineral resources - Australian:Classification
Chatree
Gold
Meas+ind+inf
100%Chatree 100%Project
Chatree NorthAu
TotalTotal
OptionOwnership/
86,000
Convertible notes (m) 0.0
130140,000
1286,000
16
130
30
18.0P/CF (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)Yield (%)
16
130,000Drilling - RC/Diamond (m)
8.64.0% 4.0%6.6
3.5%
359.2 12.5
Reserves and Resources/Mineralised Material
7.36
25.3 11.27.7
Company Comment
135,000
Chatree North
c/off
3.2Total 100%100%
AuMt
CFPS (A¢/share)
6.30
t
16
EquityOre
88,000
Project
130
81.8 78.177.481.2
18.270.0%
EPS (norm) (A¢/share)Net Profit (norm) (A$m)**
34.332.5
Dividends (A¢/share)48.2
0PER (x)
Capital Profile
52 week range (A$/share)Share price (A$)
to8.674.93
Number of shares (m)
0.0Market capitalisation (undiluted) (A$m)
KCN.AUGold, SilverThailandProduction, Advanced Exploration
30 March 2010
97.9
Exchanges: ASX:KCN
Options and warrants (m) 4.5
102Fully diluted^ (m)
849.2
849.2
Major shareholders: Blackrock Inv. Mgt (10.90%),
Thailand-based KCN is an unhedged mid tier goldproducer in a strong growth phase.
Production forecast 141koz in FY10, then to ~193koz FY12( with A$120m plant expansion to 5.0mtpa).
Efficient low cost operation, forecast FY10 net profitA$80m (82cps), cash opex US$295/oz.
Plant expansion go ahead is imminent.
Highly grade sensitive - every 0.1g/t increase in long termreserve grade adds A$1/share to NPV.
Regional exploration success suggests potential >10mozgold province (current resource 3.1moz).
Near-mine discovery at Suwan, and regional Chokdee bothare major (>20km2) mineralised systems.
Profit growth, resource grade upside and exciting regionaldiscoveries could drive stock towards A$11/share in themedium term.
.
Unhedged no debt A$8m cash NPV$5 53/share (US$850
10
24.1
Investment Points
3.1No
UBS Nominees Pty Ltd (4.9%), Directors (6.3%).
35.2
60
7102,33072.5
601.71,47045.6
88,000
Location
as aboveThailandProductionThailand
Analyst: Dr Tony Parry
na
Process
0.5
Route
1.18
Target
91.9
2012F
105.4
We are forecasting 141koz FY10 gold output (US$295/oz opex), rising to193koz in FY12 with plant expansion. Discoveries of major regionalmineralised zones support our view that KCN is sitting in a >10moz ThaiAu province, which could drive KCN towards A$11/share.
159.9 193.5
Key Projects
MetalJV
Partner Typenone
AuThailand
noneCIL 2.4mtpa
0.5
0.50.51.16
1.28
0.0
1,240
1,470
2,330
1,240
0.0
38.4
Mid Expl.
ProjectStatus
1.20
69.4
180
30
0.5 180
Au
35
2009a 2013FYEAR END: June
34.9168.2
EBIT (A$m)141.0Equity Production (koz)
104.2
93.089.5 76.9
112.3
Production and Financial Forecasts
2010F
96.5
69.9
131.2
0.5
koz
60
140,000
koz
130
100.5
2011F
A$ 8.67Kingsgate Consolidated Limited
8.12
10.78.3
30
KCN - Kingsgate Consolidated Limited
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
Mar
-09
May
-09
Jun-
09
Jul-0
9
Aug
-09
Sep
-09
Oct
-09
Nov
-09
Dec
-09
Feb-
10
Mar
-10
Shar
e Pr
ice
($/S
hare
)
Source: Bloomberg
Overview: KCN re-listed on the ASX in 1988, focused on gold mining and exploration in Thailand.KCN’s Chatree mine has been in production since 2001 and recently produced its 1 millionth ounce. It isa stand-out low cost, efficient SE Asian gold mining operation, benefitting from a low tax regime. Chatree Performance: 4Q09 production was an impressive 40koz with grades back up to 2.0g/t (1.5g/t3Q09). Cash costs (incl. royalties) were US$312/oz (US$239/oz pre royalties) confirming KCN currentlyis in the lowest quartile of global gold producers. Financial Performance: First half FY10 profit (beforeunrealised forex losses) was A$41.2m (42.3cps), interim dividend 15cps, in line with our forecast. Outlook: We are forecasting a similar second half profit (A$40m) partly affected by commencement oftax payments, with head grades of ~1.9g/t (giving 71.5koz for the half, 141koz for FY10). Forecast netearnings of A$0.82/share will more than double FY09 result. FY11 profit will contract slightly with gradesof 1.76g/t forecast (production 160koz). The proposed plant expansion to 5.0mtpa is being delayed asKCN seeks confirmation of Thai Government financial incentives. We expect a decision soon. We haveassumed that expansion will proceed at a capital cost of A$120m (50% debt funded, balance funded bycashflow), start up in 2Q11. This will bring production up to around 194kozpa in FY12, forecast net profit95cps. Production is expected to reduce to 168 koz FY13 as grades revert towards reserve grades.Chatree N Resource Base: Reserves of 1.47moz and resources 3.1moz (grade of 1.2g/t) are likely toincrease substantially in next 24 months with on-going drilling at Chatree N and below old Chatree pitsproducing promising results and possibly higher grades. A 0.1g/t increase in reserve grade (orUS$100/oz increase in the gold price) increases our NPV by ~A$1/share. The Chatree Gold Province: KCN holds 1300km2 surrounding Chatree. The discovery of a new 20km2
(Chatree-sized) mineralised zone at Suwan ~6-10km N of Chatree is a major development – a likelysatellite ore body and a major boost to the resources. Further drilling will be keenly watched. Chokdee~30km N of Chatree, is a major new discovery, could rival total Chatree resources of 5moz to date andsupport a new stand-alone plant. All this points to the Chatree as a world scale >10moz province. Investment Comment: Our NPV is A$7.97share, (5% DR, US$850/oz long term Au, A$/US$=0.80,65% resource conversion) or A$9.64/share at current spot Au price of US$1,100/oz, AS$/US$=0.91. Wesee plenty of upside for KCN - a possible A$1–A$2/share uplift effect on valuation due to possible liftingof longer term resource grades (indicated by current drilling) and the exciting Suwan and Chokdeediscoveries could have a greater impact – see the graph on the next page. KCN is a stand-out low costdividend-paying Asian producer now coming into the range of institutional funds (Blackrock now holds10.9%) as it approaches A$1bn market cap.
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Resource Capital Research
March Quarter 2010 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2010 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 18
Kingsgate Consolidated Limited
ASSUMPTIONS 2009a 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F FINANCIAL RATIOS 2009a 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013FA$/US$ 0.75 0.88 0.84 0.80 0.80Gold Price (US$/oz) 886 1,047 1,002 973 950 Net debt/equity (%) -3% -2% -3% -13% -19%Gold Price Realised (US$/oz) 875 1,063 1,016 979 956 Net debt/ net debt + equity (%) -3% -2% -3% -15% -24%
Current ratio (x) 3.3 3.2 3.8 7.9 10.2EBIT/interest (x) 19 68 33 44 46
EQUITY PRODUCTION Debt/operating cashflow (%) 12% 13% 32% 21% 18%Chatree Production (koz) 93 141 160 194 168 Exploration/total overhead (%) 3% 9% 17% 17% 13%
EV/EBITDA (x) 18.8 8.3 7.6 6.5 8.4KCN Equity Production Gold (koz) 93 141 160 194 168 Market cap/net cash (x) 31.7 43.8 35.6 7.7 5.2Cash Costs (US$/oz)** 479 295 332 374 440 Market cap/book (x) 3.6 2.9 2.4 1.9 1.7 ** Cash Cost is direct operating cost before royalties and by product credits
PROFIT AND LOSS (A$m) FINANCIAL SENSITIVITIESRevenues 117 180 203 254 221Operating costs (direct) -60 -40 -63 -91 -92 % Change in EPS for a 10% increase in:Depreciation/amortization -12 -15 -24 -29 -26Exploration Expensed 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 AUD/USD -22% -26% -32%Corporate -8 -10 -8 -8 -8 Gold Price 24% 28% 35%Other (incl. Royalties) -2 -25 -15 -19 -16EBIT 35 90 92 105 77Interest 2 1 3 2 2 % Change in NPV for a 10% increase in forecast minelifeOperating profit/loss 33 88 89 103 75 commodity assumptions for:Tax -1 -6 -11 -7 -5 Base + 10%Minorities 0 0 0 0 0 A$/share A$/share %Net profit/loss 33 82 78 96 70 Gold Price US$850/oz 7.97 8.52 7%Net abnormals/extaordinaries 0 -8 0 0 0Net profit/loss (reported) 33 74 78 96 70
BALANCE SHEET (A$m) VALUATION (A$m) Q1 10 Cash and deposits 30 35 64 143 187Total current assets 58 45 74 153 197 Assumptions Base "What if" PP&E 200 261 312 290 272 Long Term Gold Price :US$/oz 850 1,110Total non-current assets 213 291 357 352 345 Long Term AUUS 0.80 0.91Total assets 271 335 431 504 542 ProjectsTotal current liabilities 17 14 19 18 16 Chatree and Chatree North 100% NPV@5% A$145/oz 429 507 Reclamation reserves 0 0 0 0 0 Based on reserves only Long term debt 0 13 37 27 17 Resources and ExplorationTotal non-current liabilities 8 21 46 36 26 Chatree and Chatree North 100% NPV@5% A$76/oz 235 303Total liabilities 26 35 65 53 42 Regional Exploration 100% 100 125Equity 245 300 366 451 501
OtherTotal debt 2 15 40 30 20 AssetsNet debt -28 -20 -24 -114 -168 Cash and deposits - Mar 10F 35 35Average shares (fully diluted) (m) 102 103 103 103 103 Rehabilitation Fund 0 0
Other - tax benefits 51 51FLOW OF FUNDS (A$m) LiabilitiesEBITDA 46 105 115 135 103 Debt - Mar 10F 0 0Cash flow from operating activities Corporate Overheads -56 -56 Operating surplus 34 131 139 156 117 Reclaimation Reserve 0 0 Corporate -8 -10 -8 -8 -8 Net Assets 793 965 Net borrowing cost -2 -2 -4 -7 -10 Net tax paid -7 -9 -10 -7 -5 Fully Diluted Shares (m) 103 103 Net exploration paid -30 -16 -16 -16 -12 Net assets/share (A$/share) 7.97 9.64 Other non cash items 32 18 25 25 27Net cash from operating activities 18 113 125 144 110Cash flow from investing activities Valuation/Reserve oz :US$/oz 215 597 Capital expenditure -12 -75 -74 -8 -8 Valuation/Reserve & Resource oz :US$/oz 205 283 Asset Sales & Other -36 -22 -16 -16 -12Net cash from investing activities -48 -97 -90 -24 -20Cash flow from financing activities Net proceeds from issue of shares 16 0 0 0 0 Dividends paid 0 -25 -29 -29 -34 Net proceeds from borrowings 0 15 25 -10 -10Net cash from financing activities 16 -10 -5 -39 -44Net change in cash -14 7 30 80 45
PRODUCTION STATISTICSChatree 100%Ore Treated (kt) 2,405 2,642 3,450 5,000 5,000 Head Grade (g/t) 1.20 1.82 1.76 1.34 1.16Recovery (%) 90 91 90 90 90Recovered grade (g/t) 0.96 1.66 1.44 1.20 1.05Gold Produced (koz) 74 141 160 194 168Equity Production (koz) 74 141 160 194 168Cash Costs (US$/oz) 479 295 332 374 440Production Costs (A$/t) 19.08 17.80 18.35 18.17 18.50 EBIT (A$m) 35.0 62.3 62.3 108.4 74.9
Exploration Success = Share UpsideA ~3moz additional resource target for Suwan and Chokdee would push the
shares towards a target price of ~A$11-A$14/share.
Year YearYEAR END: June
VALUATION SENSITIVITY TO EXPLORATION SUCCESS
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
20.00
0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
Future Resource Increase (moz)
Net
Ass
et V
alue
(A$/
shar
e -
fully
dil.
)
Additional Resources @ A$100/oz Additional Resources @ A$200/oz
BASE CASE
2-3 Year Target based on Chokdee and Suwan exploration success
![Page 20: Gold Company Review Exploration, Development & Production · Underground mining grades at Morning Star averaged 22.95g/t in 4Q09, well in excess of current resource grades and in](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022040621/5f3789e0b156e82daa280826/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Resource Capital Research
March Quarter 2010 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2010 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 19
Morning Star Gold NL
0.49
Debt (A$m) - Mar 10FEnterprise value (A$m)
Avg monthly volume (m)Cash (A$m) - Mar 10FPrice/Cash (x) Cash (A$m)Price/Book (x) Listed company options: Net asset backing (Ac/share)
*Gold prospective tenements only, both held and under application. Quarters stated on calendar year basis.
2.022.614.62
Mineralised Material (est., non compliant with JORC)
Contacts DirectorsMr Nick GarlingManaging DirectorTel: 61 (0) 2 9252 3699Sydney, NSW, Australia
1.0
726.0
0
184.0
0.0
Morning Starnone
LocationStatus
6.3
0.00.0
none
184.05.9
t
23.3
koz
0.0
726.0
JVRoute
dykes
TypeProcessTarget
g/t
5.8
Key Projects
Au
0.0
29.3
0
5.3
Au
0
5.2
Morning Star Gold NL
Underground mining grades at Morning Star averaged 22.95g/t in 4Q09,well in excess of current resource grades and in line with historicproduction (~900koz at 26g/t). Milling to produce 15-25kozpa Au viagravity could commence in Jun '10.
1.58 1.001.880.62
A$ 0.33
4.4
24
0
0
710.18
0 0
2.0
2,400
Reserves and Resources/Mineralised MaterialGold
50050024
14.2
Code for reporting mineral resources - Australian:
6.7
Exploration/(Expl.+ Corporate) (%)
Year End: June52 week range (A$/share) 0.11
Convertible notes (m) 0Options and warrants (m)
Share price (A$) 0.33
MCO.AU
79
GoldAustralia (Vic)ProductionExchanges: ASX:MCO
Capital Profile
0.0
Tenement costs ($k per year)0.4
2010F
1
to173
Corporate (A$m)Exploration and evaluation (A$m)
Market capitalisation (undiluted) (A$m)
Number of shares (m)
2009a
0.25
Dec-09a
56.3Funding duration at current burn (years)252
77
30 March 2010
173.2
Land holding ('000 ha)
Drilling - RAB (m)Shares on issue (pr end) (m shares) 147.2
0.60
Production and Financial Forecasts
2011FMar-10F
Cut Off Au Au Eqty(JORC)
Project Ore
11.9
0.0
Drilling - Other/Diamond (m)
1.00
1.2
-
252.2
0
0.90
0-
127.90
24
252.2
24
0
4.8
02,000
Cash backing (Ac/share)1.9
Major shareholders: N Garling (23.0%), Ample Rise Investments (12%)-
Funding from JV partners (A$m) 0
-Capital raisings (A$m)
Investment Points
7.1MCOOB
Yarandi Investments (8.9%).
Au
4
Fully diluted (m)
56.3
Company Comment
Woods Point Regional
0.0
1.09.8
Equity mt
Reserves
100% focus on commencing gold production at MorningStar Mine, Woods Point, Eastern Goldfields, Vic.
Historical production at Woods Point underground mine883,000 oz at 26.5g/t from 1862-1963.
Mining has commenced at Morning Star, for the first timesince 1959 (WMC), with ore being stockpiled.
MCO has spent >A$28m and more than a decaderehabilitating and re-building the Morning Star mine to level10 (310m depth).
Production grades are exceeding resource grades -average reef in 4Q09 was 22.95g/t Au with grades nowincreasing (recent 44.4g/t from 26 ore zone samples)
An ~80ktpa gravity plant is under construction and could beoperational in Jun '10. MCO expects to be producing goldat an initial level of 15 - 25kozpa Au
Underwritten option exercise 1Q10 is injecting A$12.3m.
Resources (July 2008)
ClassificationAu
556.0
11.2
koz
13.3
Early Expl. Aus (Vic)PFS
0.0
Project
-
68
Aus (Vic)
1.5 5.8
1.94.63.3
g/t
6.2
www.morningstargold.com.auPG Hepburn-Brown
Morning Star Surface
qtz vein
Measured, Ind + Inf.
M Garling (Exec Chairman)Project
Measured, Ind + Inf. 100% 2.2
PartnerN Garling (MD)Ownership/
OptionP Jackson (Non Exec)J Williams (Non Exec) 100%
100%Metal
gravity,leachAu na
Analysts: Dr Trent Allen, Dr Tony Parry
910.0
100%
910.0
Morning Star U/G
Total
MCO - Morning Star Gold NL
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
Apr
-09
May
-09
Jun-
09
Jul-0
9
Sep
-09
Oct
-09
Nov
-09
Dec
-09
Jan-
10
Feb-
10
Shar
e Pr
ice
($/S
hare
)
Source: Bloomberg
Overview: MCO’s Morning Star mine is located 120km ENE of Melbourne, in the Eastern Goldfieldswhich is one of the most significant historical goldfields in Australia, with ~6moz produced since the1860’s gold rush days. MCO is recommencing production for the first time in nearly 50 years. MCO’s Strategic Position: MCO has developed a tenement position of over 220km2 giving it controlover the historically rich production ground in the Woods Point dyke swarm, known to have historicalproduction of around 2moz of gold. MCO’s vision is that a gravity mill at Woods Point could become ahub processing facility from other regional mining operations developed by MCO in the future. Mine Rehabilitation: Since 1993 the Morning Star mine has been totally rehabilitated and rebuilt byMCO from surface to Level 10 (310m underground) for a total cost exeeding A$28m. This has allowedresource definition and access to several key underground targets for initial production. Resource Status: In 2Q08 MCO confirmed a 910koz resource at 6.3g/t Au for Morning Star mine. Production Strategy: MCO re-commenced mining at Morning Star in August 2009, initially 40t/dayincreasing to 80t/day in 1Q10. Current development is along the 0.15m-0.6m thick Maxwell Reef,above 9 level, with assays returning up to 137.4g/t Au. In 4Q09, development samples averaged10.77g/t Au and reef samples 22.95g/t Au – more recent sample groups have averaged 44.4g/t Au and75.2g/t. These are well above resource grades. Other targets are Dickenson and Shamrock reefsbetween 3 and 4 levels, and Burns Reef (6 sub level). Ore is being stockpiled. MCO is building astand-alone treatment plant at Morning Star. Capacity initially ~80ktpa (10tph). Mining will be between30ktpa and 50ktpa in CY10, est. production 15-25kozpa in 2010. Metallurgical testing in 4Q09 foundgravity concentration and a leach circuit gave recoveries of ~95%-99%, or ~92% from gravity alone ata 300µm coarse crush. Currently, the plan is to use gravity to produce a saleable concentrate for CILprocessing. Construction has commenced (by Gekko Systems): operation is expected in Jun ‘10. Comparison with Ballarat Goldfields: The disaster that befell Lihir Gold (ASX:LGL) at Ballarat afterthe purchase of Ballarat Goldfields NL for A$350m has naturally made investors wary about historicalhigh grade mines being re-started in Victoria. It is, however, important to note that the geology atBallarat (sedimentary/saddle reefs) is less homogenous and more nuggety than Woods Point (igneousdyke-hosted reefs) and LGL’s large scale ‘bulk mining’ mining approach was unsuited to the ore bodyand very different to MCO’s planned small scale selective mining of reef veins. Regional Exploration: Excellent potential for a 3-4moz resource base, Regional drilling is expected in1H10, focusing on the historic Reliance Dyke (chip assays to 12g/t Au). MCO is managing a JV withHong Kong’s Ample Rise Investments, which will invest A$4.5m over 2 years to earn 51% of regionalMining Licences MIN5299 and MIN5241. Corporate: Outstanding options (MCOOB), exercisable by March 2010 and currently well in the moneyat A$0.10/share, should provide a cash injection of A$12.3m – conversion is underwritten by BBY Ltd. Investment Comment: Mining grades from Maxwell Reef are well in excess of the Morning Starresource. Gearing up to a 30-50ktpa operation in 2H10 should see gold output in the range 15-25kozpa, or higher. Opex should be ~A$600/oz giving solid margins. If MCO can continue to achievepredicted grades and commence milling on schedule, a share price re-rating is expected. There isexcellent resource upside and the JV with Ample should fast-track development of regional holdings.
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Resource Capital Research
March Quarter 2010 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2010 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 20
MCO’s initial underground JORC resource of 2mt @ 11.2 g/t Au is in the Maxwell and Kenny zones (upper 9 level). Assays from development mining at Maxwell include 137.4g/t Au, with a recent average from the reef
of 75.2g/t Au. The reef has a halo with lower gold grades; this material could be processed separately.
MCO’s tenements cover ~240km2 of Victoria’s Eastern Goldfields with historic underground mines having produced >1.8moz. MCO considers a regional resource target of 3-4moz is realistic, using the Morning Star
mine as an ore processing hub. The recent A$4.5m JV over two MINs should boost development.
![Page 22: Gold Company Review Exploration, Development & Production · Underground mining grades at Morning Star averaged 22.95g/t in 4Q09, well in excess of current resource grades and in](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022040621/5f3789e0b156e82daa280826/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Resource Capital Research
March Quarter 2010 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2010 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 21
Nevsun Resources Limited
3.50
Debt (US$m) - Mar 10FEnterprise value (US$m)
Avg monthly volume (m)Cash (US$m) - Mar 10FPrice/Cash (x) Cash (US$m)Price/Book (x) Listed company options: Net Asset Backing (USc/share)
*Gold prospective tenements only, both held and under application. Quarters stated on calendar year basis.
ReservesBisha Project* Prov & ProbResourcesBisha Project Meas + IndicBisha Project InferredTotalMineralised Material (est., non compliant with NI 43-101)* Reserves include 4mt @ 7.99g/t Au in surface Oxide; 6.35mt @ 4.4% Cu in Supergene; 9.7mt @ 7.21% Zn in Primary Ore.
Contact DirectorsMr Cliff T DavisCEO, DirectorTel: 604 623 4700
GE MuneraVancouver, BC, Canada
* plus 30% government interest to be purchased from Nevsun at fair market value after start of gold production
90% 11.73 0.7 various
90% 20.08 2.2 na
2.1 various27.29 56.8 1,8252247.7
Target
1,642249
64.5 2,074
CIL
Project
Gold Classification AukozEqty
Reserves and Resources/Mineralised MaterialCode for reporting mineral resources - Canadian: (NI 43-101)
90%
t
JVOption
Au,Cu,Zn
GE German
Partner TypeOwnership/
EritreaStatus
0.0 0.0
1,439 1,295
1,866
Construction
0 30
Project Ore
105.8 123.0
117.929.122
2.0
na
Au
Company Comment
105.8
6,600
214.3
0 na13
110.0
Production and Financial Forecasts
2011F
Gold Production (koz)
NSU.CN
230
Mar-10F 2009a
0.0 0.0
0.60
0.10 0
A$ 2.99
Dec-09a
Nevsun Resources Limited
Mining at the US$260m Bisha gold and base metal project, Eritrea,could start in late 2010. Forecast gold production is an impressive900koz Au before year 3, costing US$230/oz before credits.Estimated project NPV is US$5.11/share at long-term metal prices.
2010F
0.0 360.00.0
Capital Profile
Options and warrants (m)
52 week range (US$/share) to
8
Share price (US$)
Gold, Silver, Copper, ZincEritreaConstructionExchanges: TSX:NSU, AMEX:NSU
Convertible notes (m)
YEAR END: December2.990.95
Operating Costs (US$/oz)0
Number of shares (m) 193
30 March 2010
110.0
0.2Exploration and Evaluation (US$m)
13 130
575.6200
0
2.056.5 16.7
1.0
141
4.02.0
00
4.00.0
5.0193
0.8
193 Shares on issue (pr end) (m shares)Exploration/(Expl.+ Corporate) (%)Corporate (US$m) 4.9
1930
14110.4
0 0
No
Capital Raisings (US$m)
20.0
Land holding ('000 ha)*
117.94.92.4 Cash Backing (USc/share)
Funding from JV partners (US$m)
Market capitalisation (undiluted) (US$m)
Drilling - RAB (m)Drilling - Other/Diamond (m)
15
Fully diluted (m)
477.7
Focused on near-term gold and base metal productionat Bisha Project, Eritrea: commissioning in late 2010.
Shallow oxide gold Reserve of 4mt @ 7.99g/t Au shouldproduce 900koz Au over first 2.5 years - life of mine(10yrs) 1.06moz Au, 734mlbs Cu and 1075mlbs Zn.
Low cost production: expected opex US$230/oz Aubefore credits. Capex US$260m, equity financed.
Potential to grow Bisha resources at depth and within133km2 land package.
Support from Government of Eritrea: 10% partner, plus30% contributing equity purchase at market rate whenproduction begins.
Bisha Project NPV (5% discount) is US$1138m atconservative long-term commodity prices, or US$1695m at current prices, i.e. US$7.61/share for effective 90%.
Investment Points
0
Metal
20.7
RS Angus (Chairman)
13
g/tAu
20.7
0.0
61.2
0.0na
29.1
RouteCT Davis (CEO)
0.0
123.5
kozc/off
44.7
LocationProcess
Key Projects
Mt
Major shareholders: Franklin Templeton Investments Corp (11.7%)13
76.1
0.0
146.6
www.nevsun.com
VMSProject
60%*Bisha
3.9
Investor Rels: 1 866 684 6730
g/tEquity
RJ Gayton Eritrea
Analyst: Dr Trent Allen
Overview: Nevsun Resources Ltd. is a gold and base metal developer focused on the completion andproduction of the Bisha Mine in Eritrea, Africa. Mining is expected to commence in late 2010. Bisha Project (Au, Cu, Zn, Ag; Eritrea): 133.5km2, and 50km west of the capital, Asmara. The deposit, aVMS, was found in 2003 and a 20 year mining licence granted in 2008. The Eritrean Government has a 10%free carried interest, and a 30% contributing interest that will be purchased from Nevsun at market valueafter the start of production. Proven and Probable Reserves on the ML, at Bisha Main Zone, are 20.1mt.The orebody has a 1.2km strike and is defined to 450m depth, below which it remains open. It is divided bydepth and mineralisation into three zones: Oxide (4mt @ 7.99g/t Au; 0m-35m), Supergene (6.35mt @ 4.4%Cu as sulphides; 35m-65m) and Primary (9.7mt @ 7.2% Zn as sulphides; 65m-450+m). Reserve goldgrades decrease at depth, as base metals increase (e.g. Primary Zone 9.7mt @ 0.76g/t Au). The pit shell forthe 20mt Reserve (across the three zones) is defined at US$400/oz Au, $1.05/lb Cu and $0.50/lb Zn, andextends to ~200m depth. Increasing assumed base metal prices, to $2.00/lb Cu and $1.00/lb Zn, deepensthe shell to ~400m, i.e further into the Primary Zone. There are satellite VMS deposits within 10km of Bisha,including the Northwest Zone and the Harena Deposit, which could provide future resource expansions. Production: NSU estimates producing 2mtpa open cut for 10 years, with treatment by CIL. The Oxide Zonewill feed the first 2.5 years (900koz Au), Supergene the next three (538mlbs Cu), and Primary the remaining5 years (196mlbs Cu and 1.075b lbs Zn). Capital expense is ~US$260m with US$32m contingency.Forecast operating costs, all-in including royalties, are US$210/oz Au with credits (also US$0.67/lb CuSupergene, US$0.54/lb Cu Primary, and US$0.50/lb Zn Primary), or US$230/oz Au without credits. Development: Bisha feasibility studies were completed in 2006, the ML granted in January 2008, andconstruction began in September 2008. Mills were delivered in December 2008. Construction is currently~50% completed. Debt financing for the remaining 50% was not available in time so Nevsun turned to aUS$110m equity placement (Feb ’10) at US$2.12/share. Nevsun has been active in Eritrea for 10 years andhas a good understanding of the operating environment. The Government is a partner in the Bisha Project.UN sanctions, which were imposed on Eritrea in December 2009 (arms, travel, asset freeze amongstgovernment officials) have not affected construction of Bisha. Investment Comment: Gold / base metal mines have the advantage of a natural hedge: as economicinstability pushes base metal prices down, gold should rise, and vice versa (at least in theory). Using RCR’slong term price assumptions (Au US$850/oz, Ag US$11/oz, Cu $2.50/lb, Zn US$0.85/lb), a 5% discount rateand further 10% pre-production discount, Nevsun’s share of project NPV is US$1137m, or US$5.11share(i.e. 60%, plus 30% government interest to be purchased from NSU at market value). At current prices (AuUS$1100/oz, Ag US$17.7/oz, Cu $3.40/lb, Zn US$1.02/lb) this increases to US$7.61share. This takes noaccount of cash, debt or exploration upside at Bisha. Current share price is US$2.99, up from US$2.16when our previous note was published in Feb ’10. If Bisha is successfully brought online and meets itsambitious year 1-2 gold production target of 900koz, Nevsun should continue to be re-rated by the market.
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Resource Capital Research
March Quarter 2010 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2010 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 22
Mineralisation and Zones, Bisha Gold and Base Metal Project, Eritrea: the deposit is a VMS style, with a gold-rich oxide cap (4mt @ 7.99g/t Au). Base metal enrichment increases at depth, through copper-rich supergene and zinc-copper primary sulphide mineralisation. The orebody is open at depth below 450m.
Bisha Project 10-year production forecast: all-in opex with royalties is US$210/oz with credits, or US$230/oz without. At long-term metal prices, project NPV is ~US$1.3 billion, of which NSU holds 60%,
plus 30% government interest to be purchased from NSU at fair market value after start of gold production.
![Page 24: Gold Company Review Exploration, Development & Production · Underground mining grades at Morning Star averaged 22.95g/t in 4Q09, well in excess of current resource grades and in](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022040621/5f3789e0b156e82daa280826/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Resource Capital Research
March Quarter 2010 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2010 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 23
Norseman Gold Plc *
1.35
Cash Cost (A$/oz)
Debt (A$m) - Mar 10FEnterprise value (A$m)
Avg monthly volume (m)Cash (A$m) - Mar 10FPrice/Cash (x)Price/Book (x) Drilling - RAB (m)Listed company options:
Land holding ('000 ha)
$11M exploration budget for 2008.
Experienced board and management.
Resources (includes proved and probable reserves as above)
Mineralised Material (est., non compliant with JORC)
Contacts DirectorsMr Barry CahillChief Executive Officer B Cahill (CEO)Tel: 61 (8) 9473 2200 D Steinepreis (Non Exec Dir)South Perth, WA, Australia M de Villiers (Non Exec Dir)
G Steinepreis (Non Exec Dir)P Bilbe (Non Exec Dir)
25.9
0%
20,000
172.5
0
161
0PER (x)
Exploration and Development (A$m)
Early Expl.
1,10033.6
0
33.719.2
Eqty
1.4
12.0100%
Analyst: Dr Tony Parry
www.norsemangold.com
Total
Norseman - Open Pit
V Pendal (Chairman)
TotalReserves and Resources as at 31 March 2009
Meas+ind+inf2.80
2,5009.303,700
8.43,70020.0
Au
Proven + Probable
Option
Norseman U'groundMeas+ind+inf
100%
100%Project
Norseman Iron Ore
P/CF (x)
Shares on Issue (EOP) (m)
Code for reporting mineral resources - Australian:Classification
Norseman - Open Pit
Dividends (A¢/share)
100%
0
171.9
020,000
0
2.3
Norseman
6
0%
Norseman - U'ground
c/off
0.44g/t
Gold
Drilling - RC/Diamond (m)
0%172.5
Yield (%)
20,000
6
0%
Reserves
(JORC)Au
1.4g/t
10.901.00
7
Proven + Probable 100%100%
AuMt
7
3.20
6
EquityOre
0
Project
161
Reserves and Resources/Mineralised Material
161
Company Comment161
16.620.3
CFPS (A¢/share)
172.5172.5
04.14.7 5.4
3.0
4.7 28.016.02.8
27.97.5
0
Exchanges: ASX:NGX; AIM:NGL
Capital Profile
52 week range (A$/share)Share price (A$)
to
EPS (norm) (A¢/share)Net Profit (norm) (A$m)**
0.790.45
NGX.AUGoldAustralia (WA).Production, Advanced Exploration
30 March 2010
172.5Options and warrants (m) 3.9
176.4Fully diluted (m)
Number of shares (m)
Convertible notes (m) 0
Major shareholders: Sprott Asset Management (11.6%),
Unhedged mid tier gold producer entering a strong growthphase to mid tier ranks in FY11.
Norseman field has long history of high grade quartz reefmining since 1894 with >5.5moz extracted.
Reserves 400koz, total resource base 3.7moz (5.5g/t).
Currently two underground mines operating.
Recent performance patchy with grades down in 2H09,profit has collapsed after FY09 A$20m profit.
NGX is confident it can recover grades, production in FY11and maintain expansion plans.
Third underground mine (3Q10) will increase ore milled by200ktpa, increase gold output to ~110kozpa.
Our assessed NAV is A$1.45/share (US$850/oz long termgold price, A$/US$=0.80) or A$2.08/share at current spotgold price (US$1,100/oz, A$/US$=0.91).
Prospective P/E ratio is ~5x for FY11.
2.1
8.4
Investment Points
1.8
2.0Market capitalisation (undiluted) (A$m)
137.4
135.4
No
JP Morgan Asset Managers (11.0%), Baker Steel Capital Managers (9.2%)
16.2
Aus(WA)
40012.3
1,100
0.0
Location
naAus(WA)Production
Ownership/
mag'titenoneGravity/CIL
Target
Norseman Gold Plc
865
Fe
40.1
2012F
48.2
NGX's credibility and profitability have suffered with recent grade andproduction shortfalls. However, it is still confident it can get back ontrack and boost production to ~110koz in FY11 (after ~65koz FY10). Ifso, shares look very undervalued based on our A$1.45/share NAV.
109.2
Key Projects
MetalJV
Partner Typenone qtz vein
400
2,500
ProcessRoute
5.50
0.0
8.90
0.0
111.7
161
78.1
t45
350
20,000
koz
10.9
Au
ProjectStatus
YEAR END: June
22.3
124.2
EBIT (A$m)
66.5Equity Production (koz) 124.2715
2009a
10.4
80.7
7.0 50.4
29.2
Production and Financial Forecasts
2010F 2011F
45
35.2
34.5
koz
350
20.1
3.92.50%
686 700 712
3.0
0
2013F
32.00
A$ 0.79
NGX - Norseman Gold Plc(listed on ASX June 2009)
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
Jun-
09
Jul-0
9
Sep
-09
Oct
-09
Nov
-09
Dec
-09
Jan-
10
Mar
-10
Shar
e Pr
ice
($/S
hare
)
Source: Bloomberg
Overview: NGX acquired the historic Norseman gold operations, 725km east of Perth, in April 2007,from the former Croesus Mining Limited (now Sirius Resources). NGX was originally listed on the AIM(London) market and since June 2009 has been dual listed on the ASX. History: The Norseman operation is Australia’s longest continually running gold operation with aproduction history that dates back to 1894 when gold was first discovered at Norseman. An estimated5.5moz of gold have been extracted from the field, most in the last 65 years of production. Current Reserves & Resources: Current reserves (prov. + prob.) are 400koz (grade 8.9g/t). The totalJORC resource is 3.7moz at a grade of 5.5g/t, 67% of which is an underground resource (grade 9.3g/t)and 33% an open pit resource (grade 2.8g/t). The complexity of the nuggety vein mineralisation meansthat underground resources can only be converted to reserves through mine development. Current Operations: NGX is currently sourcing ore from two underground high grade narrow quartzvein mining operations – the Bullen Decline and Harlequin Decline. Ore is treated though the 700ktpacapacity Phoenix gravity/CIL mill. The mill is currently only running at ~60% capacity (~420ktpa) due todevelopment limitations from the two existing declines. In FY09 gold output was 80.7koz from 398kt ofore milled at an average grade of 6.04g/t. Average cash opex in FY09 was A$715/oz. 4Q09 Operations: Due to a production shortfall from the Bullen Decline, the lower output seen in 3Q09continued. In 4Q09, mine production dropped to 15.7koz (16.2koz 2Q09). Production grades wereslightly better (5.21g/t versus 4.856g/t 3Q09) but well below target of >6g/t. As a result opex was~A$900/oz. Revised FY10 Forecasts: The Bullen Decline problems cannot currently be made up withHarlequin ore, and the OK Decline won’t contribute until FY11. As a result NGX has reduced its FY09production guidance to 65koz (from 75-80koz) but maintains 105-110koz for FY11, with expectations ofthe OK Decline commencing production and recovery of grades and output from Bullen. Future Expansion: NGX’s strategy is to expand mine output to increase mill capacity utilisation. To dothis, NGX has commenced development work to bring in a third mining operation in the next 6 months -the OK Decline which will access the OK Deeps ore, below and to the W of historical OK Mine workings.A fourth mining operation – the North Royal (open pit), is then likely to be brought into production FY12. RCR Modeling Assumptions: Our forecasts assume mill throughput is expanded to 620ktpa by 2Q11,gold output increases to 123kozpa, recovery 98%. We have assumed longer term head grades of 6.3g/t,opex A$135/t which gives ~A$700/oz. Sustaining (mine development) capex of A$16mpa with anadditional A$10m to develop the third mine. Total mine life of 13 years assumed. Investment Comment: After a solid FY09 A$20m profit NGX has struck problems in 2H09 with theBullen Decline falling short. Production has dropped from 42koz (1H09) to 32koz (2H09) and opexsoared from A$665/oz to A$916/oz due to lower grades. So can NGX deliver on its proposed futureexpansion to ~110kozpa and get its grades back on track? It is still confident. If it can, FY11 prospectiveP/E is ~5x, dropping to ~4x in FY12. (based on RCR forecast US$850/oz long term gold andA$/US$=0.80). Our base case assessed NAV is A$1.45/share. However, sensitivity to the gold price ishigh. At around current spot prices (US$1,100/oz, A$/US$=0.91) NAV is A$2.08/share.
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Resource Capital Research
March Quarter 2010 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2010 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 24
Norseman Gold Plc
ASSUMPTIONS 2009a 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F FINANCIAL RATIOS 2009a 2010a 2011F 2012F 2013FA$/US$ 0.75 0.88 0.84 0.80 0.80Ave. Gold Price (US$/oz) 886 1,047 1,001 969 941 Net debt/equity (%) -20% -8% -26% -49% -67%Gold Price Realised (US$/oz) 894 1,062 1,016 976 948 Net debt/ net debt + equity (%) -25% -9% -35% -95% -207%
Current ratio (x) 2.4 1.1 2.4 4.4 6.0EBIT/interest (x) 39 29 279 335 350
EQUITY PRODUCTION Debt/operating cashflow (%) 27% 10% 4% 4% 4%Norseman Production (koz) 81 66 109 124 124 Exploration/total overhead (%) 44% 17% 16% 16% 16%NGX Equity Production Gold (koz) 81 66 109 124 124 EV/EBITDA (x) 4.0 7.0 2.5 2.1 2.3Cash Costs (A$/oz)** 715 865 686 700 712 Market cap/net cash (x) 5.0 12.0 3.9 2.0 1.5Cash Costs (US$/oz)** 571 765 576 558 570 Market cap/book (x) 1.9 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.7 ** Cash Cost is direct operating cost before royalties.
PROFIT AND LOSS (A$m) FINANCIAL SENSITIVITIESRevenues 97 82 134 155 152Operating costs -62 -58 -75 -87 -88 % Change in EPS for a 10% increase in:Depreciation/amortization -10 -11 -11 -13 -6Exploration Expensed -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 AUD/USD 5% -10% -36%Corporate -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 Gold Price 13% 11% 40%Other (incl. Royalties) 1 -2 -3 -4 -4EBIT 22 7 40 48 50Interest 1 0 0 0 0 % Change in NPV for a 10% increase in forecast minelifeOperating profit/loss 22 7 40 48 50 commodity assumptions for:Tax -2 -2 -12 -14 -15 Base + 10%Minorities 0 0 0 0 0 A$/share A$/share %Net profit/loss 20 5 28 34 35 Gold Price US$850/oz 1.45 1.67 15%Net abnormals/extaordinaries 0 0 0 0 0Net profit/loss (reported) 20 5 28 34 35
BALANCE SHEET (A$m) VALUATION (A$m) Q3 08 Cash and deposits 33 13 35 64 88Total current assets 40 13 35 64 88 Assumptions Base "What if" PP&E 32 53 63 67 77 Long Term Gold Price :US$/oz 850 1100Total non-current assets 62 89 106 116 131 Long Term AUUS 0.80 0.91Total assets 102 102 141 180 219 ProjectsTotal current liabilities 20 14 18 18 18 Norseman Operations 100% NPV@5% A$281/oz 223 330 Reclamation reserves 0 0 0 0 0 Assumes 13 year LOM @ 6.3g/t grade Long term debt 3 -2 -2 -2 -2 Resources and ExplorationTotal non-current liabilities 14 10 10 10 10Total liabilities 34 24 27 27 27 Regional Exploration 100% 25 30Equity 68 78 114 153 192
OtherTotal debt 7 2 2 2 2 AssetsNet debt -26 -11 -33 -62 -86 Cash and deposits (1Q10) 16 16Average shares (fully diluted) (m) 124 176 176 176 176 Rehabilitation Fund 0 0
Other - Tax Losses 7 7FLOW OF FUNDS (A$m) LiabilitiesEBITDA 32 18 52 61 56 Debt -2 -2Cash flow from operating activities Corporate Overheads NPV @5%) -18 -18 Operating surplus 33 22 57 65 59 Reclaimation Reserve 0 0 Corporate -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 Net Assets 251 363 Net borrowing cost -1 -2 -1 -3 -4 Net tax paid -2 -2 -8 -13 -13 Fully Diluted Shares (m) 176 176 Net exploration paid -7 -7 -6 -6 -6 Net assets/share (A$/share) 1.45 2.08 Other non cash items 5 10 10 11 14Net cash from operating activities 26 19 49 51 46Cash flow from investing activities Valuation/Reserve oz :US$/oz 502 826 Capital expenditure -5 -32 -22 -16 -16 Valuation/Reserve & Resource oz :US$/oz 54 89 Asset Sales & Other -7 -7 -6 -6 -6Net cash from investing activities -12 -39 -28 -22 -22Cash flow from financing activities Net proceeds from issue of shares 20 0 0 0 0 Dividends paid 0 0 0 0 0 Net proceeds from borrowings -11 -3 0 0 0Net cash from financing activities 9 -3 0 0 0Net change in cash 24 -22 21 29 24
PRODUCTION STATISTICSNorseman 100%Ore Treated (kt) 415 423 545 620 620Head Grade (g/t) 6.07 6.06 6.36 6.36 6.36Recovery (%) 96 98 98 98 98Recovered grade (g/t) 5.82 5.93 6.23 6.23 6.23Gold Produced (koz) 78 81 109 124 124Equity Production (koz) 78 81 109 124 124Cash Costs (US$/oz) 571 765 575 558 570Production Costs (A$/t) 154.00 137.00 137.19 140.14 142.70 EBIT (A$m) -8.0 23.0 50.5 56.7 48.9
YEAR END: June
NGX Net Asset Value is highly sensitive to the gold price
Year Year
EFFECT OF LONG TERM GOLD PRICE ON
NGX NET ASSET VALUE
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
750 850 950 1050 1150
Long Term Gold Price (US$/oz)(Note: RCR long term exchange rate forecast is A$/US$=0.80)
Net
Ass
et V
alue
(A$/
shar
e fu
lly d
il.)
RCR FORECAST
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Resource Capital Research
March Quarter 2010 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2010 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 25
North Queensland Metals Limited
0.36Gold Price (US$/oz)Equity Production (koz)
Debt (A$m) - Dec 09FEnterprise value (A$m)
Avg monthly volume (m)Cash (A$m) - Dec 09FPrice/Cash (x) EV/EBITDA (x)Price/Book (x) Listed company options:
Total
Mineralised Material (est., non compliant with JORC)
Contacts DirectorsMr John McKinstryCEOTel: 61 (0) 7 3666 0510
60% 427.0 256.24.71 2.8 13.23.83
7.310.1
floatHeemskirk
volcanicsna
0.8
Pajingo Proven & Probable
Inferred 1.2660%Indicated60%
3.0Equity
3.86.7
4.9
Code for reporting mineral resources - Australian:
1.82.03.5
Aut
Ore AuGold
5.50Mt 0.54
Aus(QLD)mid expl.na60% ??AuAus(QLD)
CIP
Twin Hills
176.5
0.0
StatusProject
0.0
floatAus(QLD)Production
volcanics
6.31.0
3.52.0
7.5
21.37
Investment Points
0.9No
147.2
Company Comment
Shares on Issue (EOP) 198.9
4.3
198.9
2.5
Yield (%)
20.014.4P/CF (x)
0 8.5
2.0
1.83.7
2.715.0
11.5 13.1
5.46.7
13.3
4.2
NQM's focus is to grow its gold production (current~35kozpa) to become a mid tier (~100kozpa) producer.
NQM is 60% owner of the Pajingo JV gold operation -epithermal gold system (2.3moz production to date).
Pajingo JV production ~60kozpa, opex ~A$700/oz.
Pajingo mill is under-utilised - 400ktpa 'spare' capacity.
JV is targeting >100kozpa JV production in 12 months(~75% increase) from new open cut mines.
Additional ore will come from Pajingo open pits and TwinHills (satellite) Project (60%).
Proposed divestment of tin assets makes sense - NQM willbe exposed to upside through CSD shareholding.
Our assessed NAV is A$0.47/share based on long termgold price US$850/oz; A$/US$=0.80.
1.7
1.8
5.6
Heemskirk epithermal
30 March 2010
46.7
4
Fully diluted (m)Market capitalisation (undiluted) (A$m)
0.0
Major shareholders: D Walker (27.2%), Newmont Capital Pty Ltd (10.3%)
PartnerJV
Metal
23.2
PajingoResources
46.7
11.2
Analyst: Dr Tony Parry
0.0
Dividends (A¢/share)
100%
6.05
Sn,Cu,Ag,InSn,Cu
Target
9.2
Process
Key ProjectsProject
0.0CFPS (A¢/share)
Route
Cut Off
60%g/t
NQM.AU
0.8Number of shares (m) 198.8Options and warrants (m)
Gold, Tin, Copper, Silver, Indium
Share price (A$)
0.0
Capital Profile
Australia (QLD)Production, Advanced Exploration
52 week range (A$/share) to
Exchanges: ASX:NQM
Convertible notes (m)
0.240.2
2009a
Einasleigh
North Queensland Metals Limited
Dividend-paying NQM is firming up strategies for additional ore to feedthe under-utilised Pajingo mill (60% NQM), to boost Pajingo productionby 75% to >100kozpa in 12 months. The clarity should lead to a re-ratingof NQM as a growth stock - towards our A$0.47/share NAV.
A$ 0.24
973
YEAR END: June
1.2EPS (norm) (A¢/share)1.6
Pajingo
Pajingo
Production and Financial Forecasts
2012F2011F
Revenue (A$m)
2010F
886 104783462.1
2008a
N Thomas (Non Exec Ch)
www.nqm.com.au
Type
M Tilley (Non Exec Dir)
D Walker (Non Exec Dir)B Kay (Non Exec Dir) 60% Au,Ag
naBrisbane, (QLD), Australia Herberton
Option
Twin Hills
100%
Ownership/
Meas+Ind+Inf
199.6 6.87
Classification Project
EBIT (A$m) 10.76Net Profit (norm) (A$m)
7.7
Reserves and Resources/Mineralised Material
144.6
koz
0.08
57.2
747.2
26.0
Au Eqty
448.3
Drill Investments Pty Ltd (5.7%), Robin Scrimgeour (3.4%) 3.13.5
4.3
PER (x) 6.2 8.6
(JORC)
294.2
Reserves koz95.4
adv expl. Aus(QLD)early expl.
Location
34.9
15.6
g/t
74.2
198.9
10.6
18.99
1002
Baal Gammon Project probable ore reserves 3.31mt @ 0.93% Cu, 0.20% Sn, 32.0g/t Ag, 29.3g/t In.
Au
7.94
51.512.5 62.836.3 43.412.4 31.5
NQM - North Queensland Metals Limited
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
Mar
-09
May
-09
Jun-
09
Jul-0
9
Aug-
09
Oct
-09
Nov
-09
Dec
-09
Jan-
10
Feb-
10
Mar
-10
Shar
e Pr
ice
($/S
hare
)
Source: Bloomberg
Overview: NQM was listed on the ASX in Dec ‘06. with a focus on tin/silver/indium deposits in N Qld, In2008 it joined the ranks of gold producer with the purchase of 60% of the Pajingo mine. The strategy nowis to extend minelife and expand production by bringing new regional resources into production. Pajingo Gold Mine: The Pajingo mine is 53km S of Charters Towers in Central QLD. Initially an opencut, it has operated as an underground mine (ave. grades 11g/t) since 1996, yielding 2.3moz. ThePajingo ore body comprises a series of steeply dipping narrow epithermal quartz veins. Mining is by aseries of declines extending over 4km strike length. Ore is processed through a 500ktpa CIP plant (whichcould be expanded to 770ktpa if the existing second mill were re-commissioned. Current ore throughputrate is only 330 ktpa. Half Year Profit: For the December 2009 half year NQM reported a net profit ofAS$1.1m on revenue of A$21m, after expensing A$1.4m on Dotswood evaluation and A$0.7mexploration and other write-downs. Operational cashflow A$4.4m. 0.5cps interim dividend was declared. Production Expansion: NQM’s strategy is to ramp up to treating an additional ~400ktpa of ore in thePajingo mill in the next 12 months, with ore sources from Pajingo open pits (10kozpa) and Twin Hills (30-40kozpa). This will give an additional ~40-50kozpa for the JV. The Pajingo mill can be readily expanded.Pajingo Resource Exploration: Mine life is ~5 years on current resource base. NQM plans to replaceresources, extend mine life by drilling defined ‘brownfields’ epithermal targets in the immediate vicinity.Recent drilling at Moonlight (~1.5km S of existing mine) has confirmed a new gold mineralised system(veining similar to the Pajingo epithermal veining), 350-400m below surface. Pajingo Open Pits: NQMhas defined 224kt of ore at a healthy 3.6g/t (26koz) in two open pits at Pajingo. Mining to commence3Q10. Twin Hills (60%): Now factored in as a major component of production expansion in the next 12months. 190km S of Pajingo, acquired by the Pajingo JV for A$1.75m cash. NQM’s intensive resourceevaluation work has established (to date) a JORC resource of 4.7mt @ 2.8g/t for 427koz in two deposits.The open-pittable 309 Deposit (307koz @ 2.6g/t) is likely to be extracted first, followed by the Lone SisterDeposit (120koz @ 3.7g/t) which would entail redevelopment of the existing underground mine. Truckingof 300ktpa ore to Pajingo will yield ~30-40kozpa, with trucking costs of ~A$24/t. Dotswood Gold Project Option: NQM has dropped this project after extensive evaluation. Herberton Tin Assets: NQM is proposing to vend its extensive Herberton tin exploration ground intoConsolidated Tin Mines Ltd (ASX:CSD) for A$0.5m cash, 25m CSD shares (current value A$2m) and a2% royalty. NQM will retain its Baal Gammon multi metal (Cu/Sn/Ag/In) deposit. Investment Comment: The market has been waiting for some clarity as to how NQM can expandproduction. This is now emerging with Dotswood discarded and firm production proposals for Pajingoopen pits and Twin Hills, which can boost JV production to >100kozpa (>60kozpa for NQM). Meanwhile,the life of the Pajingo epithermal field looks like it will go well beyond 6 years based on recentdiscoveries. With Pajingo grades also improving, we expect a medium term share re-rating towards ourNAV (basis: 5%DR, 60% Pajingo resource conversion, long term Au price US$850/oz) of A$0.47 pershare. Prospective P/E for FY11 is <5, (yield 8%) with further production growth into FY12 forecast.
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Resource Capital Research
March Quarter 2010 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2010 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 26
NQM Assessed Net Asset Value (A$/share fully diluted)
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200
Long Term Gold Price (from FY13)
NA
V (A
$/sh
are )
A$/US$ = 0.80 A$/US$ = 0.90
RCR TARGET NAV
The Pajingo JV gold production is expected to grow strongly.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
Financial Year
Fore
cast
JV
Pro
duct
ion
(60%
NQ
M)
Pajingo undergound Pajingo open pits Twin Hills
NORTH QUEENSLAND METALS LIMITED VALUATION
Target^Price
Equity Gold Valuation A$mProjects (moz) US$/oz
+ Pajingo Gold Project * 60% 0.32 332 70.0+ Twin Hills 60% 0.43 28 8.0
+ Baal Gammon Project 100% (1% of gross in ground value - multi metal resource) 5.0+ Herberton Regional Tin Expln. 100% (proposal to vend in to CSD) 3.0
Sub Total 86.0
+ Cash (Est Mar '10) 11.2+ Tax Losses 2.2- Debt (Est. Mar '10) 0.0- Forward Sales Discount 0.0- Corporate Overheads (NPV @ 5%) 6.2
Sub Total 7.3
NQM NET ASSET VALUE 93.3
Capital StructureShares (m) 198.9Fully Diluted Shares (m) 199.6
NQM NET ASSET VALUE PER SHARE :A$/share 0.47NQM NET ASSET VALUE DILUTED :A$/share fully diluted 0.47
* Includes Pajingo open pits, assumes 7 year base case undergound mine life.^ Pajingo target price based on NPV @ 5% DR, RCR long term gold price forecast of US$850/ounce, A$/US$ = 0.80
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Resource Capital Research
March Quarter 2010 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2010 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 27
Vantage Goldfields Limited
na
Cash Cost (A$/oz)
Debt (A$m) - Mar 10FEnterprise value (A$m)
Avg monthly volume (m)Cash (A$m) - Mar 10FPrice/Cash (x)Price/Book (x) Drilling - RAB (m)Listed company options:
* Pro forma capital profile post IPO Land holding ('000 ha)
$11M exploration budget for 2008.
Experienced board and management.
* Lily equity will reduce to 74%.Resources (includes proved and probable reserves as above)
Mineralised Material (est., non compliant with JORC)
Contacts DirectorsMr Mike McChesneyChief Executive Officer M McChesney (CEO)Tel: +27 13 753 3046 W Stear (Exec Dir)Nelspruit, South Africa T Willsteed (Non Exec Dir)
T Muftizade (Non Exec Dir)
7.6
2013F
IPO Price
* Forecasts assume that A$30m is raised in the planned IPO at A$0.40/share in 1H10.
2009F
46.317.9
2.3
223.5
2.21.4
0
1,48262.3
0%
0
koz407koz
19.3
Production and Financial Forecasts*
2010F 2011F
8009
25.1 28.6
577 11169 500
YEAR END: June
-3.5
80.0
EBIT (A$m)
17.7Equity Production (koz) 60.4890
19.1 67.0
479
3,4654,382262354
JV
0.0
136.4
407
2,003
0.0
Project
South AfricaCIP
Route
5.50
sulphide CIP
Target
Key Projects
Partner Typeprivate Co.
MetalProcess
A$ 0.40
47.8
2012F
60.6
Proposed market debutant VGO plans to expand two mines in SouthAfrica’s rich Barberton goldfields from ~20kozpa (CY10) to ~80kozpa(CY13) equity production. Current project resource base is 4.38moz.Proposed A$0.40/share IPO price is below our valuation range.
36.1
Vantage Goldfields Limited
Au sulphideDormant Mine
private Co.
Location
FlotationSouth AfricaProduction
sulphideSouth Africa
47914.8
1,721
0.0
Status
Major shareholders: AIMS (26.5%), Platinum Asset Mgt (22.4%),
Our valuation is A$0.88/share (fully diluted) (assumesA$30m raised in IPO, A$10m pre-IPO) using current spotAu price US$1,100/oz and A$/US$=0.91.
Using RCR long term Au price US$850/oz, A$/US$=0.80gives a valuation of A$0.56/share fully diluted.
Low forward P/E ratios (4.6 FY12, 4.2 FY13).
Equity production forecast to grow to 80kozpa by 2013.Excellent position in under-explored Barberton goldfield –South Africa’s largest greenstone belt.
Total gold resources of 4.38moz (VGO equity 3.46moz),likely to grow significantly with further exploration.
(EV-Cash)$ per ounce resource ratio of 15 is very lowrelative to peers – we would expect a range of $30-40/oz.
Low risk - production is from expansion of two mines withrecent operating history, which are shallow, low costunderground mining operations.
Senior executives have extensive experience in SouthAfrican gold operations and project development.
na
8.1
Investment Points
3.3No
M McChesney (6.3%),
11.0
0.0Market capitalisation (undiluted) (A$m)
89.4
89.4
Proposed IPO share price (A$)
Options and warrants (m) 36.4
260Fully diluted (m)
Number of shares (m)
Convertible notes (m) 0
CFPS (A¢/share)
VGO.AUGoldSouth AfricaProduction, Advanced Exploration
30 March 2010
223.5
Exchanges: ASX:VGO (Not yet listed - Subject to IPO)
Capital Profile*
52 week range (A$/share)
na 3.40
7.7
to0.40na
13.4 33.412.95.2
0
t
1
Equity*Ore
8,000
Project
16
g/t
Reserves and Resources/Mineralised Material
223.5
Ind+inf 74% 2.9
85%
AuMt
16
Company Comment
AuAu
4.80
02.5
0%223.5
g/t3.09 14.8
1.6na0%
0
0%
11
5.2
2,000
123.0
10,0006,000
8,0006,000
1
Dividends (A¢/share)
74%
Proven + Probable
Yield (%)
Reserves
(JORC)
2.82
0
AuOption
6.2
EPS (norm) (A¢/share)Net Profit (norm) (A$m)**
-2.0-2.5
1,500
Lily 85%/74%Project
c/off
11.2
P/CF (x)
Shares on Issue (EOP) (m)
Barbrook Project
Code for reporting mineral resources - Australian:Classification
Lily Mine
Gold
Meas+ind+inf
Drilling - RC/Diamond (m)
8.90
11.2
20.0
5.56
1.4
22.3
3.86
S Turner (Non Exec Chair)
TotalReserves and Resources as at Decmber 2009
Analyst: Dr Tony [email protected]
Worcester 74%
74%
www.vantagegoldfields.com.au
Total
85%Lily Project
Barbrook
Ownership/
16.2
Worcester Project
Au private Co.
PER (x)
Meas+ind+inf
Re-Commission
2,02562.9
0
41.9
Exploration and Development (A$m)
Eqty
-1.6
0%
5,500
223.5
0
16
0
VGO - Vantage Goldfields Limited
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
Shar
e Pr
ice
($/S
hare
)
Source: Bloomberg
Chart not applicable.VGO is not yet listed.
Overview: VGO was founded in 2004 by the current CEO Michael McChesney, with a strategic 16,000hectare land holding in the Barberton (Eastern) goldfields of South Africa. In that time the company hasinvested approximately US$30m on exploration at Lily, a BFS for the Lily mine, initial production at Lilyand the purchase of the nearby Barbrook mine and processing plant in 2008. The Company is currentlyplanning to list on the ASX in 1H10 after the completion of an IPO. Company Strategy: VGO’s focus is to maximise the potential from its strategic position in the historicallyprolific Barberton goldfields in South Africa. The first priority is to expand production in a low-risk stagedmanner from its two existing operations, firstly Lily (currently operating), and then Barbrook (pastproduction, currently dormant), to become a mid tier (~80kozpa equity) profitable gold producer. Thesecond priority is to build the regional gold resource base and new project pipeline in the Barbertongoldfields, through further exploration of the many advanced exploration prospects in this under-exploredregion. This is likely to lead to further expansion in equity gold production to well over 100kozpa in thenext 5-6 years, if moderately successful. The Region: The historic Barberton goldfields have a history of continuous gold production over a periodof more than 100 years mainly from gold-quartz lode deposits, with some gold mineralisaton (such as atBarbrook) associated with sulphides. However, the region remains relatively un-explored in terms ofmodern exploration techniques. Lily Mine (85% reducing to 74%): Lily is a shallow, medium cost underground mine currently producingat ~10kozpa (~120ktpa through the Lily mill). Reserves are 407koz and Resources 2.0moz. VGO hascompleted extensive undergound mine development and a BFS to ramp up to ~35kozpa by 4Q10, withore processing switching to the refurbished Barbrook CIP plant (known as the Central MetallurgicalComplex “CMC”). Cash costs should reduce to ~US$520/oz with the ramp-up. Total capex for the rampup and mill refurbishment (partly completed) is ~A$23m. Barbrook Mine (74%): This mine was last operated in 2006, and acquired by VGO in 2008. It isrelatively shallow underground mine already extensively developed with a dedicated processing plant(CMC). Curent resource is 2.0moz. VGO is planning to resume production in 3Q10 at ~80ktpa (10kozpa),with expansion to 500ktpa (64kozpa) by 4Q12 (~A$40m capex). The ore is higher grade than Lily, but isnot free milling and is treated through a separate flotation circuit to produce a gold concentrate. Cashcosts ~US$500/oz are expected. Worcester Project (74%): Dormant underground mine – resource 0.35moz – VGO will undertake a PFSwith a view to a potential re-start. Investment Comment: VGO is an emerging mid-size gold producer that has already investedsubstantial capital and put in the work to build a 4.4 moz project resource base (in a highly prospectiveSouth African mineral province) and two production operations that can be expanded to ~105kozpa goldproduction by 2013 (VGO equity 80kozpa) in stages with modest capital requirements and low productionand technical risk. Our share valuations suggest significant potential upside.
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Resource Capital Research
March Quarter 2010 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2010 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 28
VANTAGE GOLDFIELDS LIMITED VALUATION
RCR F'cast Spot Gold RCR F'cast Spot Equity Resource Resource L.T. Gold Gold
Gold Resource Valuation Valuation US$850/oz US$1,100/ozEquity (moz) A$/oz ^ A$/oz * A$m ^ A$m *
Projects+ Lily Gold Mining Operations (NPV @ 5%DR) 85% 1.72 37 62 64.5 107.1+ Barbrook Mine (NPV @ 5% DR)** 74% 1.48 20 44 29.6 64.6+ Worcester Mine 74% 0.26 5.0 7.5+ Other Exploration Projects 74% 0.00 7.0 10.0
Sub Total 3.46 106.1 189.2
+ Cash (est Jun '10) 36.7 36.7+ Tax Losses 0.0 0.0- Debt (est. Jun '10) 0.0 0.0- Corporate 13.4 13.4
Sub Total 23.3 23.3
VGO NET ASSET VALUE (A$m) 129.3 212.4
Capital StructureShares (post IPO) (m) 223.5 223.5Fully Diluted Shares (m) 259.9 259.9
VGO NET ASSET VALUE PER SHARE :A$/share 0.58 0.95 VGO NET ASSET VALUE DILUTED :A$/share fully diluted 0.56 0.88
** Barbrook NPV has been discounted by 30% for current project status - pre BFS and reserves not yet quantified.^ Valuation based on RCR long term gold price forecast of US$850/ounce from 1Q13, long term A$/US$ = 0.80; linear change from current.* Spot Valuation based on long term gold price = current spot ~US$1,100/oz, A$/US$ = 0.91
Note: The above valuation is pro forma June 2010 – assuming A$10m raised pre-IPO and A$30m in the proposed IPO. Vantage’s projects are situated in the Barberton Greenstone Belt in South Africa’s Eastern
Goldfields. This region has a long history of gold production and a number of existing producing mines.
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Resource Capital Research
March Quarter 2010 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2010 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 29
YTC Resources Limited
0.35
Debt (A$m) - Mar 10FEnterprise value (A$m)
Avg monthly volume (m)Cash (A$m) - Mar 10FPrice/Cash (x) Cash (A$m)Price/Book (x) Listed company options: Net asset backing (Ac/share)
Quarters stated on calendar year basis.
Mineralised Material (est., non compliant with JORC)
Contacts DirectorsMr Rimas KairaitisChief Executive OfficerTel: +61 (0)2 6361 4700Orange, NSW, Australia
R Chambers (Non Exec)
NymageePre-feasibility Aus (NSW)
ProjectLocation
80% Au-base Mid Expl. Aus (NSW)
Indicated + inferred 100% 1.8 6.70 2.5g/t AuEq 12.0
Cobar
385 385Hera (CBH, 2007) ^
Ownership/
Key Projects
12.4
Doradilla Project tin resource is 7.8mt @ 0.28% for 49.2mlbs Sn
Kadungle
Baldry 100%
Hera 100%
Sn (W)100%
Au-base
Tallebung
0
Wenxiang Gao (Chair)A Wehby (Vice Chair)R Kairaitis (CEO)G Zhang (Non Exec)
www.ytcresources.com S Woodham (Non Exec)
Project
3.5
Investment Points
1.2
Focused on gold and base metal exploration in NSW,including recently acquired flagship, the Hera Gold andBase Metal Project near Cobar.
Hera Project and Nymagee JV: purchased 3Q09. Hera isan advanced stage, undeveloped gold and Cu-Pb-Zndeposit, with an AuEq resource ~500koz Au.
Hera's Main Lens could provide 7 years undergroundproduction of 39kozpa Au, with natural hedge from basemetal co-product (e.g. Zn 6700tpa). Opex A$360/oz AuEq
High gold and base metal recoveries from coarse grind,gravity and bulk float.
Near-term value drivers could include a Hera resourceupgrade and DFS in 2Q10, and ongoing exploration drillingof gravity anomalies between Hebe and Nymagee.
NSW exploration portfolio includes early to advanced stageprospects for gold (Baldry, Kadungle) and tin.
2.9
0.0
1.0
0.3
17.75.9
Au Eqty
Aus (NSW)
Aus (NSW)
koz
Aus (NSW)
Status
2.67
0.0
koz
1.1164.2
Au
185
20,000
0
Au
17.4
1.8
Adv Expl.Mid Expl
10.0
7.8
Aus (NSW)Aus (NSW)
18520,000
Giant's Den
100%
Doradilla
Sn (Au)Au, Ag
70%
100%
Skarn
Mid Expl.Early Expl.
GCP,SRLEpitherm.
na
none
Au, Cu
naSn, Ni
na
RoutePartner
3.3
naAusmindex/MMG Cobar na
4,000
0.0 0.0
g/t0.0
164Options and warrants (m)
Classification(JORC)
Project
7.017.0
9.7
Reserves and Resources/Mineralised Material
No
7
Fully diluted (m)
23.9
Funding duration at current burn (years)
Land holding ('000 ha)
Drilling - RAB (m)Shares on issue (pr end) (m shares)
Drilling - Other/Diamond (m)
169
Wonderful Investments, HK (9.8%), China Yunnan Tin metals Group, HK (5.9%)
Exploration/(Expl.+ Corporate) (%)Convertible notes (m)
Year End: June0.210.10
Corporate (A$m)0
toExploration and evaluation (A$m)
Share price (A$)
YTC.AU
5
Gold, Base Metals, SilverAustralia (NSW)Pre-Feasibility StudyExchanges: ASX:YTC
Capital Profile
52 week range (A$/share)
30 March 2010
Number of shares (m)
Cash backing (Ac/share)
283
0.0Market capitalisation (undiluted) (A$m)
Major shareholders: Yunnan Tin Group (15%),
33.7
0.0
5,000
185-
Option Metal
Reserves
Indicated + inferred
^Other metals: Cu 0.18%; Pb 2.72%; Zn 3.35%; Ag 15.13g/t. ^^Other metals: Cu 0.2%; Pb 2.5%; Zn 2.8%; Ag 14g/t
7.5% ZnEq
Hera (Triako, 2004) ^^8.8 283
Type
none
JV
none
na
na
00
-
tg/t
5,000 20,000
25.32.83.1
1855,000 20,000
-180
5,000 10,000
43.8
Tenement costs ($k per year) -
Funding from JV partners (A$m)Capital raisings (A$m)
Production and Financial Forecasts
2011F
2.500.55
Mar-10F
11.5
189.2
5.321.22
164.2
9.7 1.3
0.5
-
0.55 2.081.386572
2.2082 4569
YTC Resources Limited
YTC is on track to start gold and base metal production in early 2011 fromthe Hera Project (NSW). A resource upgrade and DFS are expected in April2010. A near-term value driver could be exploration drilling between Heraand the historic Nymagee Copper Mine.
1.14 4.00
A$ 0.21
2009aDec-09a 2010F
Analyst: Dr Trent Allen C Ng (Non Exec)
Mid Expl.
R Hill (Non Exec)
Target
Lode, porph.
Gravity/float
none
Porphyry
164.2
Lode, alluv.
Process
Company Comment
Cut Off
19.3
Tin
4.7
Au
Resources100%
OreCode for reporting mineral resources - Australian:
Equity Mt
0.00.0
YTC – YTC Resources Limited
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
Apr
-09
Jun-
09
Jul-0
9
Sep
-09
Oct
-09
Nov
-09
Dec
-09
Jan-
10
Feb-
10
Shar
e Pr
ice
($/S
hare
)
Source: Bloomberg
Overview: YTC listed on the ASX May ’07. It is focused on the exploration and development of gold andbase metal projects, especially tin, in the New England and Lachlan Fold Belts of New South Wales. Hera Project and Nymagee JV (Au, Ag, Pb, Zn, Cu): Located 100km SE of Cobar, central NSW, Hera is anadvanced but undeveloped gold, silver and base metal (Cu-Pb-Zn) deposit. It is Cobar-style depositconsisting of 1-12m wide sub-vertical lenses. Mineralisation extends from surface to +500m depth, andmeasures 800m (strike) by 300m (width). Hera was found by Pasminco (2001) and subsequently developedby Triako and CBH Resources, which each established JORC resources (with different Au and base metalcut-offs). YTC bought Hera plus 80% interest in the Nymagee JV from CBH (A$12m plus 5% royalty Jun ’09).Mining Evaluation: To date, YTC has evaluated the Main Lens (600m strike), which could be mined viaconventional bench stoping (+150m depth). Some parts of the lens are high grade, e.g 16.7m @ 70g/t Au,8.5% Pb, 11.1% Zn and 38g/t Ag (CNYDD017). YTC has defined a Mining Inventory for Main Lens of 1.14mt@ 6.7g/t Au, 14.9g/t Ag, 0.2% Cu, 2.27% Pb and 3.72% Zn. This could be mined over 7 years, with annualproduction 39koz Au as both bullion and in concentrate, along with concentrates containing Ag (77kozpa), Zn(6700tpa), Pb (3800tpa) and Cu (330tpa). Gold could be produced from a gravity circuit and as a concentrateeither at Hera or, for example, at CBH’s Endeavor plant (150km by road). YTC estimates opex A$360/ozAuEq. Initial capex could be A$23.4m including A$5m for the DFS and exploration, A$11.8m undergrounddevelopment and A$3.5m for a gravity circuit. Mine life extensions could be provided by the 1530 Lens(drilled 22.8m @ 7.1g/t Au from 361.4m depth) and Far West Lens (drilled 7.8m @ 15.2g/t Au and including12.5% Zn). YTC plans to mine Hera in early 2011. A Definitive Feasibility Study (by GRES) and resourceupdate are expected Apr ’10. DFS metallurgy shows that a coarse grind, gravity and bulk float can recoverup to 83% of Au and 86-96% of base metals. The DFS should include a mine plan defined at US$170/t. Hera exploration: The deposit is open at depth, and along strike. Resource infill and expansion drillingcommenced Oct ’09. Important findings include an open north-plunging extension to the Main Lens(HRD020: 8m @ 5.5g/t Au, 18g/t Ag, 0.47% Cu, 2.3% Pb, 1.4% Zn) and an interpreted connection betweenthe Far West and Hays/Werners lenses to form a continuous Western Lens with 300m strike. A new copperlens was also intersected west of Main Lens (incl 7m @ 3.15% Cu). The 1km-distant Hebe Prospect hasdrilling 7m @ 3.26g/t Au and +2% Pb and Zn, while the underground Nymagee Copper Mine (Nymagee JV)produced 0.42mt @ 5.8% Cu in 1880-1917. A gravity survey of the 6km Hebe-Nymagee corridor revealeduntested anomalies that have become exploration targets, e.g. Zeus (1.5km SSW Hera). Drilling is ongoing. Valuation: At a long-term gold price of US$850/oz and based on the Hera Evaluation Study and the Triakoresource (Main and 1530 lenses), the company’s NAV (5% discount rate) is A$102m, or A$0.61/share (fullydiluted), including cash (Mar 10F A$10m). Based on the 1.14mt Mining Inventory, near-term target remainsA$0.50/share. This valuation takes no account of the company’s large NSW exploration portfolio. Investment Comment: YTC’s infill drilling at Hera, and recently discovered lens extensions andconnections, should boost the resource and help with a +US170/t mine design. An obvious near-term pricecatalyst should be the DFS and resource upgrade in April 2010. The results of exploration drilling, on gravityanomalies such as Zeus, and around the Nymagee Copper Mine, could provide good news. Project financefor Hera (equity and/or debt) will be needed in mid 2010, as dictated by capital costs in the DFS.
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Resource Capital Research
March Quarter 2010 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2010 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 30
Preliminary process flow sheet, Hera Project (NSW): Stage 1 metallurgy has shown high recoveries of gold (up to 83%) by coarse grind and gravity, and base metals by subsequent bulk float. Downstream options
include leaching, and finer grind and float. A DFS and resource upgrade are expected in April 2010.
Gravity survey, Hebe to Nymagee: conducted at 100m x 100m spacing, the survey revealed at least six untested or poorly tested anomalies that are now drilling targets. The current focus is Zeus, which has
already been shown to be mineralised. The Nymagee Copper Mine is also highly prospective.
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Resource Capital Research
March Quarter 2010 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2010 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 31
Selected Charts and Gold Sector Statistics Precious metal prices, interest rates, and oil price charts.
Gold Price (Spot US$/oz)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Apr
-00
Dec
-00
Sep
-01
Jun-
02
Mar
-03
Dec
-03
Aug
-04
May
-05
Feb-
06
Nov
-06
Jul-0
7
Apr
-08
Jan-
09
Oct
-09
Gol
d Pr
ice
(US$
/oz)
Source: Bloomberg
Silver Price (Spot US$/oz)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Apr
-00
Dec
-00
Aug-
01
May
-02
Jan-
03
Oct
-03
Jun-
04
Mar
-05
Nov
-05
Aug-
06
Apr
-07
Dec
-07
Sep-
08
May
-09
Feb-
10
Silv
er P
rice
(US$
/oz)
Source: Bloomberg
Platinum Price (Spot US$/oz)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Apr-0
0
Dec
-00
Sep
-01
Jun-
02
Mar
-03
Nov
-03
Aug
-04
May
-05
Jan-
06
Oct
-06
Jul-0
7
Apr-0
8
Dec
-08
Sep
-09
Plat
inum
Pric
e (U
S$/o
z)
Source: Bloomberg
Palladium Price (Spot US$/oz)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Apr-0
0
Jan-
01
Oct
-01
Aug
-02
May
-03
Jan-
04
Oct
-04
Jun-
05
Mar
-06
Nov
-06
Aug
-07
Apr-0
8
Dec
-08
Sep
-09
Palla
dium
Pric
e (U
S$/o
z)
Source: Bloomberg
NYMEX WTI Crude Oil Futures(US$/barrel)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Apr
-00
Dec
-00
Sep
-01
Jun-
02
Mar
-03
Dec
-03
Sep
-04
Jun-
05
Mar
-06
Dec
-06
Aug
-07
May
-08
Feb-
09
Nov
-09
(US$
/bar
rel)
Source: Bloomberg
US Federal Funds Rate (%)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Apr
-00
Dec
-00
Aug
-01
May
-02
Jan-
03
Oct
-03
Jun-
04
Mar
-05
Nov
-05
Aug
-06
Apr
-07
Jan-
08
Sep
-08
Jun-
09
Feb-
10
(%)
Source: Bloomberg
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Resource Capital Research
March Quarter 2010 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2010 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 32
The top 20 global gold producers (ranked by CY2009 equity gold production).
Company NameEquity production gold
CY09 (koz) Equity production gold
CY08 (koz) Equity resources gold
(moz)
Barrick Gold Corporation 7365 7741 251.3
AngloGold Ashanti Limited 4607 5131 243.0
Newmont Mining Corporation 4170 6623 165.4
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. 2698 1322 110.5
Kinross Gold Corporation 2293 1796 91.9
Goldcorp Inc. 1802 2317 110.3
Newcrest Mining Limited 1517 1672 78.3
OJSC Polyus Gold 1230 1191 132.1
ZiJin Mining Group Co. Ltd. 1180 1843 0.9
Rio Tinto Limited 1152 762 11.3Compania de Minas Buenaventura S.A.A. 1104 1212 23.9
Lihir Gold Limited 1100 914 53.3
Yamana Gold Inc. 948 743 44.5
IAMGold Corporation 828 1038 31.1
Gold Fields Limited 770 2986 201.8
Centerra Gold Inc. 676 749 15.3
OAO SeverStal 534 193 12.5
Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited 488 268 29.7
Petropavlovsk plc 480 391 13.3
Eldorado Gold Corporation 461 423 26.4
Data Source: Intierra – Resource Intelligence
The top 10 global producers’ output of 28.0 moz represents 34% of total global production (est. 82.1moz).
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Resource Capital Research
March Quarter 2010 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2010 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 33
Report Contributors Tony Parry: Tony has extensive experience in metallurgical process development, (working with MIM Limited for five years) and in mining equity research, equity sales and mining corporate finance (working in London for five years and subsequently Perth). He was a founding Director and CEO of an ASX listed exploration company and has been engaged extensively as a strategic planning consultant to many small-medium enterprises. Tony’s qualifications include a BSc (Hons) in Metallurgy and a PhD in Metallurgy from the University of NSW. John Wilson: John has a background in mining, finance and equity research. He worked on Wall Street for 6 years and has covered US, Australian and Latin American mining stocks. He has also worked with BHP in their minerals division. Qualifications include an MBA from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and a Bachelor of Engineering from the University of Sydney. Trent Allen: Trent has a BSc (Hons) and a PhD from the University of Sydney, specialising in the petrology, trace-element geochemistry and economic geology of alkaline igneous rocks. His Australian mining industry experience includes several years with Newcrest’s Cadia Valley gold/copper mines, where he was engaged in resource definition and geotechnical engineering. Trent has also worked as an exploration consultant, university lecturer in geology and civil engineering, and as a newspaper editor with Fairfax in Sydney.
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Resource Capital Research
March Quarter 2010 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2010 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 34
Disclosure and Disclaimer
Resource Capital Research ACN 111 622 489 www.rcresearch.com.au
Suite 1306
183 Kent Street Sydney, NSW 2000
Tel: +612 9252 9405
Fax: +612 9251 2859 Email: [email protected]
Disclosure and Disclaimer Important Information
Resource Capital Research Pty Limited (referred to as “we”, “our”, or “RCR” herein) ACN 111 622 489 holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFS Licence number 325340). General advice is provided by RCR’s Authorised Representatives Dr Tony Parry (Authorised Representative number 328842) and Dr Trent Allen (Authorised Representative number 331960). The FSG is available at www.rcresearch.com.au. All references to currency are in Australian dollars unless otherwise noted. This report and its contents are intended to be used or viewed only by persons resident and located in the United States, Canada and Australia and therein only where RCR’s services and products may lawfully be offered. The information provided in this report is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject RCR or its affiliates to any registration requirement within such jurisdiction or country. This report and its contents are not intended to constitute a solicitation for the purchase of securities or an offer of securities. The information provided in this report has been prepared without taking account of your particular objectives, financial situation or needs. You should, before acting on the information provided in this report, consider the appropriateness of the purchase or sale of the securities of the companies that are the subject of this report having regard to these matters and, if appropriate, seek professional financial, investment and taxation advice. RCR does not guarantee the performance of any investment discussed or recommended in this report. Any information in this report relating to the distribution history or performance history of the securities of the companies that are the subject of this report should not be taken as an indication of the future value or performance of the relevant securities. In preparing this report, RCR analysts have relied upon certain information provided by management of the companies that are the subject of this report or otherwise made publicly available by such companies. The information presented and opinions expressed herein are given as of the date hereof and are subject to change. We hereby disclaim any obligation to advise you of any change after the date hereof in any matter set forth in this report. THE INFORMATION PRESENTED, WHILE OBTAINED FROM SOURCES WE BELIEVE RELIABLE, IS CHECKED BUT NOT GUARANTEED AGAINST ERRORS OR OMISSIONS AND WE MAKE NO WARRANTY OR REPRESENTATION, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AND DISCLAIM AND NEGATE ALL OTHER WARRANTIES OR LIABILITY CONCERNING THE ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS OR RELIABILITY OF, OR ANY FAILURE TO UPDATE, ANY CONTENT OR INFORMATION HEREIN. This report and the information filed on which it is based may include estimates and projections which constitute forward looking statements that express an expectation or belief as to future events, results or returns. No guarantee of future events, results or returns is given or implied by RCR. Estimates and projections contained herein, whether or not our own, are based on assumptions that we believe to be reasonable at the time of publication, however, such forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors which could cause actual results to differ materially from the estimates and projections provided to RCR or contained within this report. This report may, from time to time, contain information or material obtained from outside sources with the permission of the original author or links to web sites or references to products, services or publications other than those of RCR. The use or inclusion of such information, material, links or references does not imply our endorsement or approval thereof, nor do we warrant, in any manner, the accuracy of completeness of any information presented therein. RCR, its affiliates and their respective officers, directors and employees may hold positions in the securities of the companies featured in this report and may purchase and/or sell them from time to time and RCR and its affiliates may also from time to time perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, entities mentioned in this report. Allied Gold Limited, Beacon Minerals Limited, Catalpa Resources Limited, Eleckra Mines Limited, Morning Star Gold NL, Norseman Gold Plc, North Queensland Metals Limited, Vantage Goldfields Limited and YTC Resources Limited commissioned RCR to compile respective company reviews in the 1Q10 gold report. In consideration, RCR received from each company a cash consultancy fee of less than $15,000. The RCR analyst for YTC undertook consulting work for YTC in the past 12 months for a cash consultancy fee of less than $15,000. Azumah Resources Limited and Ampella Mining Limited contributed to travel expenses for an RCR analyst’s site visit in the last three months. RCR may receive referral fees from issuing companies or their advisors in respect of investors that RCR refers to companies looking to raise capital. Those fees vary, but are generally between 0 - 1% of the value of capital raised from referrals made by RCR. RCR received referral fees in relation to recent capital raisings for Globe Uranium Limited, PepinNini Minerals Limited, Uranex NL, Adamus Resources Limited and Toro Energy Limited. At the date of this report, neither RCR, nor any of its associates, hold any interests or entitlements in shares mentioned in this report with the exception that either or both of John Wilson (either directly or through Resource Capital Investments Pty Limited (RCI)), or RCI, as trustee of the Resource Capital Investments Fund or RCR associates owns shares in BHP, Rio Tinto, Kingsgate Consolidated, Adamus Resources, Emmerson Resources, Ampella Mining, Azumah Resources, Chalice Gold Mines, Citigold Corporation, shares in a subsidiary of Korab Resources Limited, and Gryphon Minerals. Analyst Certification: All observations, conclusions and opinions expressed in this report reflect the personal views of RCR analysts and no part of the analyst’s or RCR’s compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. Officers, directors, consultants, employees and independent contractors of RCR are prohibited from trading in the securities of U.S. companies that are, or are expected to be, the subject of research reports or other investment advice transmitted to RCR clients for a blackout window of 14 days extending before and after the date such report is transmitted to clients or released to the market. Cautionary Note to U.S. Investors Concerning Estimates of Measured, Indicated and Inferred Resources: RCR publishes mineral resources based on standards recognized and required under securities legislation where listed mining and exploration companies make their exchange filings and uses the terms “measured", "indicated" and "inferred" mineral resources. U.S. investors are advised that while such terms are recognized and required under foreign securities legislation, the SEC allows disclosure only of mineral deposits that can be economically and legally extracted. United States investors are cautioned not to assume that all or any part of measured, indicated or inferred resources can be converted into reserves or economically or legally mined. We recommend that US investors consult Securities and Exchange Commission Industry Guide 7 – “Description of Property by Issuers Engaged or to Be Engaged in Significant Mining Operations” for further information about the use of defined terms and the presentation of information included in this report.
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