Going #viral: what graph theory can teach us about "The Dress", the Ice Bucket Challenge and the...
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finn WEBINAR GOING #VIRAL: WHAT “THE DRESS” CAN TEACH US ABOUT PR 26/ 03/ 2015 FINN Public Relations RAF WEVERBERGH MANAGING PARTNER www.finn.be raf.weverbergh@finn.be Twitter: @rafweverbergh FB: facebook.com/FINNPR
Transcript of Going #viral: what graph theory can teach us about "The Dress", the Ice Bucket Challenge and the...
finnWEBINAR
GOING #VIRAL: WHAT “THE DRESS” CAN TEACH US ABOUTPR
26/03/2015
FINN Public Relations
RAF WEVERBERGH MANAGING PARTNER
[email protected]: @rafweverberghFB: facebook.com/FINNPR
finnGOING #VIRAL
#GOINGVIRAL
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SLIDESHARE
MEET “THE DRESS”
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ON FEBRUARY 25TH, USER “SWIKED” POSTED THIS MESSAGE ON TUMBLR: “GUYS PLEASE HELP ME - IS THIS DRESS WHITE AND GOLD, OR BLUE AND BLACK? ME AND MY FRIENDS CAN’T AGREE AND WE ARE FREAKING THE FUCK OUT”
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NEXT, THIS HAPPENED:
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AS CLOSE AS IT GETS TO PURE VIRALITY. DOES THIS REMIND YOU OF SOMETHING? OF COURSE IT DOES:
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“BETWEEN JUNE 1 – SEPTEMBER 1, MORE THAN 17 MILLION VIDEOS RELATED TO THE ICE BUCKET CHALLENGE WERE SHARED TO FACEBOOK. THESE VIDEOS WERE VIEWED MORE THAN 10 BILLION TIMES BY MORE THAN 440 MILLION PEOPLE.”
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THE QUESTION WE GOT FROM JOURNALISTS: “WHAT IS IT ABOUT THE ICE BUCKET CHALLENGE” THAT MAKES IT SO #VIRAL?”
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SOURCE: JEREMIAH OWYANG
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HOWEVER, THESE ARE PREREQUISITES, BUT NOT AN EXPLANATION FOR THE PHENOMENON. EVERY WEEK, THOUSANDS OF CAMPAIGNS ARE STARTED (ALSO BY MARKETERS) WHICH TICK ALL THE BOXES.
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WHY DID THE DRESS AND THE ICE BUCKET CHALLENGE SUCCEED WHERE ALL THE OTHERS FAILED? THAT IS THE QUESTION.
THE ANSWER IS NOT IN CREATIVITY, IT’S IN MATHEMATICS
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IN 2003, DUNCAN WATTS WROTE“SIX DEGREES. THE SCIENCE OFA CONNECTED AGE”, WHICHEXPLAINS VIRAL PHENOMENATHROUGHNETWORK THEORY OR “GRAPH”THEORY.
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YOU KNOW THAT MOMENT WHEN AN ENTIRE CONCERT HALL STARTS TO CLAP IN SYNCHRONICITY? THAT’S WHAT HAPPENS ONLINE. IT ISCALLED AN “INFORMATION CASCADE”.
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“DURING SUCH AN EVENT, INDIVIDUALS IN A POPULATION ESSENTIALLY STOP BEHAVING LIKE INDIVIDUALS AND START TO ACT MORE LIKE A COHERENT MASS.”
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“WHAT ALL INFORMATION CASCADES HAVE IN COMMON, HOWEVER, IS THAT ONCE ONE COMMENCES, IT BECOMES SELF-PERPETUATING; THAT IS, IT PICKS UP NEW ADHERENTS LARGELY ON THE STRENGTH OF HAVING ATTRACTED PREVIOUS ONES.”
BUT WHERE DO THEY COME FROM?
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INCIDENTALLY, THE ICE BUCKET CHALLENGE CAME OUT OF BOSTON:
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SOURCE: FACEBOOK
DO YOU NEED THE INTERNET TO CREATE ONE?
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IT CERTAINLY HELPS, BUT: NO.
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IN 1989 IN LEIPZIG (DDR) A SMALL GROUP OFPROTESTERS STARTED TO MARCHON MONDAY NIGHTS
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IN 1989 IN LEIPZIG (DDR) 1200PROTESTERS STARTED TO MARCHON MONDAY NIGHTS
8 WEEKS LATER, THEY NUMBERED500 000
SOURCE: WIKIPEDIA/HAMBURGER ABENDBLATT
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ON NOVEMBER 9, 1989 THE BERLIN WALL CAME DOWN.
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“ALTHOUGH THEY ARE LITTLE REMEMBERED NOW,THE LEIPZIG PARADES PROBABLY QUALIFY AS ATRUE TURNING POINT IN HISTORY.”
CAN WE CAUSE AN INFORMATION CASCADE? AND IF SO, HOW?
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DO NETWORKS “HAVE WEAK POINTS—STRUCTURAL ACHILLES’ HEELS—SUCH THAT IF THEY WERE HIT IN PRECISELY THE RIGHT WAY, A SMALL SHOCK WOULD EXPLODE LIKE AN EPIDEMIC?”
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TURNS OUT, THERE EXISTS AN ACHILLES HEEL - BUT IT’S NOT EASY TO ACTIVATE. IT HAS TO DO WITH HOW HUMANS PROCESS INFORMATION. WE GENERALLY TURN TO OTHER PEOPLE TO MAKE UP OUR MINDS.
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OR AS SCIENTISTS PUT IT RECENTLY: “PEOPLE AROUND YOU CONTROL YOUR MIND”.
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SOURCE: WASHINGTON POST
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SOURCE: WASHINGTON POST
“ON AVERAGE, PEOPLE BOUGHT STUFF15 TO 16 % OF THE TIME. BUTIF YOU SAW SOMEONE NEXT TO YOUORDER SOMETHING, YOUR CHANCES OFBUYING SOMETHING, TOO, JUMPED TO[20 %]”
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“THE PROBABILITY OFCHOOSING OUTCOME AINCREASES SLOWLY WITH THE FRACTION OFNEIGHBORS CHOOSING A,BEFORE JUMPING RAPIDLYONCE A CRITICAL TRESHOLDHAS BEEN EXCEEDED”
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THE TRESHOLD DEPENDS ON:1. THE “VIRALITY” OF THE MESSAGE OR BEHAVIOR2. THE # OF NEIGHBORS “INFECTED”
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THIS EXPLAINS WHY TRUE VIRALITY IS SO RARE: “(...) ONE OF THE MOST INTRIGUING FEATURES OF THE CASCADE PROBLEM WAS HOW MOST OF THE TIME THE SYSTEM IS COMPLETELY STABLE, EVEN IN THE FACE OF FREQUENT EXTERNAL SHOCKS.”
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PROBLEM 1: OUR CLUSTER IS NOT CONNECTED ENOUGH. THE SHOCK CAN’T PROPAGATE ANY FURTHER.
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PROBLEM 2: CLUSTER IS SO CONNECTED THAT NO INNOVATION OR NOVELTY CAN EXCEED THE TRESHOLD.
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‘SIX DEGREES’ EXPLAINS THIS AS FOLLOWS: INFORMATION CASCADES CAN START FROM VERY HUMBLE, ALMOST INCONSEQUENTIAL BEGINNINGS. HOWEVER, FOR A CASCADE TO FORM A SHOCK NEEDS TO HIT A CERTAIN POCKET OF PEOPLE IN THE NETWORK. WATTS CALLS THIS POCKET A “PERCOLATING CLUSTER” - A CLUSTER OF PEOPLE WHO ARE ABLE TO “SWITCH ON” OR “LIGHT UP” THE ENTIRE NETWORK.
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THIS CLUSTER HAS TO HAVE SPECIFIC, AND EVEN CONTRADICTORY CHARACTERISTICS. FOR ONE THING, IT HAS TO BE BOTH CONNECTED ENOUGH, BUT NOT TOO CONNECTED.
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WATTS: “BEING SIMPLY WELL CONNECTED IS LESS IMPORTANT THAN BEING CONNECTED TO INDIVIDUALS WHO CAN BE INFLUENCED EASILY. (...) SO EVEN IF YOU CAN IDENTIFY POTENTIAL EARLY ADOPTERS, UNLESS YOU CAN ALSO VIEW THE NETWORK, YOU WON’T KNOW WHETHER OR NOT THEY ARE ALL CONNECTED. (...)”
WHAT DOES THIS TELL US ABOUT THE ICE BUCKET CHALLENGE?
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“IT COULD JUST BE THAT SOME INNOVATIONS—HARRY POTTER, RAZOR SCOOTERS, BLAIR WITCHPROJECT—HIT JUST THE RIGHT VULNERABLECLUSTER, WHILE MOST DO NOT. AND INGENERAL NO ONE WILL KNOW WHICH ONE ISWHICH UNTIL ALL THE ACTION IS OVER.”
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WRITE THIS DOWN:“AND SO IT IS APPARENTLY WITH CULTURAL FADS, TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATIONS, POLITICAL REVOLUTIONS, CASCADING CRISES, STOCK MARKET CRASHES, AND OTHER MANNERS OF COLLECTIVE MADNESS, MANIA, AND MASS ACTION. THE TRICK IS TO FOCUS NOT ON THE STIMULUS ITSELF BUT ON THE STRUCTURE OF THE NETWORK THAT THE STIMULUS HITS.”
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BUT, WASN’T THE ICE BUCKET CHALLENGE SPECIAL? YES, TO SUCCEED IN BECOMING TRULY VIRAL, IT HAD TO BE QUITE GOOD AT WHAT IT DID. BUT IT WASN’T THAT SPECIAL. WHAT MADE IT DIFFERENT WAS THAT IT GOD LUCKY TOO.
IT’S MURPHY’S LAW IN REVERSE.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR PR PROFESSIONALS?
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1. MAP THE NETWORK
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ASK YOURSELF: WHO INFLUENCES MY INFLUENCERS. THE “DRESS” WAS GETTING SO MUCH ATTENTION BECAUSE JOURNALISTS SAW THEIR PERSONAL FACEBOOK PAGES AND TWITTER FEEDS FLOODED WITH “THE DRESS”. THIS LED THEM TO WRITE STORIES ABOUT IT, WHICH CAUSED MORE PEOPLE TO TAKE NOTE. AS WATTS SAYS: ONCE THE CASCADE GETS GOING, IT JUST KEEPS GOING, AND GOING AND GOING.
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2. FLOOD THE NETWORK
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RELATED: TRY TO HIT A SPECIFIC CLUSTER HARD AND FAST. TRY TO “SWITCH ON” A CLEARLY DEFINED SEGMENT OF INFLUENCERS AND EARLY ADOPTERS ACROSS DIFFERENT PLATFORMS. (NOTE: THIS IS NOT THE SAME AS “SPRAYING AND PRAYING”.)
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3. CREATE VELOCITY
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CREATE VELOCITY: MAKE SURE YOU TIME YOUR CAMPAIGN SO THAT YOU FLOOD THE NETWORK ALL AT ONCE. DON’T DRIP YOUR CONTENT INTO A NETWORK, BECAUSE IT WILL NOT HAVE IMPACT.
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IF YOU DO PLAY IT RIGHT, THE ALGORITHMS WILL TAKE OVER...
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AND THEN THE MEDIAWILL GET IN ON IT
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SOCIAL NETWORKS AND NEXT GENERATION NEWSROOMS LIKE MASHABLE, HUFFINGTON POST, BUZZFEED, ETC. WERE BUILT BY PEOPLE WHO READ DUNCAN WATTS’ BOOK “RELIGIOUSLY”
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THE APP IS CALLED VELOCITY.
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THIS IS THE IDEA BEHIND “THUNDERCLAP” - THE QUESTION IS: DOES THUNDERCLAP SUCCEED IN REACHING THOSE “INFLUENCERS OF THE INFLUENCERS” (NOT SURE).
What PR actually is ...
Audience
Faces
PR AgencyAmbassadors
Brand
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What PR actually is ...
Audience
Faces
PR AgencyAmbassadors
Brand
Journalists
What PR actually is ...
AudienceBrand
Faces
PR Agency
Journalists
Ambassadors
What PR actually is ...
AudienceBrand
Faces
PR Agency
Journalists
Ambassadors
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4. DON’T HOPE FOR AN ICE BUCKET CHALLENGE
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“REMEMBER: I JUST GOT LUCKY.”
ABOUT US
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FINN IS...
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