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Göran BerndesChalmers University of Technology, Sweden
IEA Bioenergy Task 43
Expanding Bioenergy– Global Potentials and Regional Challenges
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Atmospheric CO2 concentration
during the past 400 000 years(from the Vostok Ice Core)
Today ~392 ppm
Year 2100 if business as usual
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Source: Klein Goldewijk, RIVM, The Netherlands
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Frontier forests 8000 years ago
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Frontier forests today
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Irrigated cereal production, Saudi Arabia
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Bioenergy in the Anthroposcene
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Bioenergy in the Anthroposcene
Food
Source: FAO
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Bioenergy in the Anthroposcene
Food
Food2050
Source: FAO
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Bioenergy in the Anthroposcene
Food
Food2050
Sources: FAO & IPCC SREN
Bioenergy2050
(deployment at 440-600
ppm)
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Bioenergy in the Anthroposcene
Food
Food2050
Sources: FAO & IPCC SREN
Bioenergy2050
(deployment at 440-600
ppm)
Bioenergy2050
(deployment at <440 ppm)
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Bioenergy in the Anthroposcene
Food
Food2050
Sources: FAO & IPCC SREN
Bioenergy2050
(deployment at 440-600
ppm)
Bioenergy2050
(deployment at <440 ppm)
Global industrial roundwood
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To-do…
• Produce more food on a smaller area and with lower impacts• Increase biomass output from forestry while keeping the forests healthy and
respecting biodiversity requirements • Expand bioenergy production in ways that are acceptable from the
perspectives of resources, environment, and socio-economy
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Room for bioenergy plantations?
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Biophysical assessments indicate considerable bioenergy supply potentials
Land suitability for herbaceous and woody lignocellulosic plants (Fischer et al 2009)
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…but requires high agriculture productivity growth (and it helps if we eat less meet)
A2: 2050A1: 2050
Illustrative example study: land availability for energy crops (Hoogwijk et al. 2005)
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Large C stock and lots of biodiversity Smaller C stock and
less biodiversity
Crop growth
Dense forest Bioenergy plantation: Annual CO2 savings much lower than the CO2 emissions from forest conversion
CO2 Biofuel production and use
Closed loop
CO2
…and bioenergy expansion needs to be guided in attractive directions
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Regional challenges and possibilities
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Regional challenges and possibilities
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Regional challenges and possibilities
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Regional challenges and possibilities
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Regional challenges and possibilities
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THANK YOU!
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• Integration of sugarcane ethanol production with livestock production• Stimulates livestock productivity increase, creating space for cane• Large local socioeconomic benefits and reduced risk of displacement
Bioenergy-food integration…Traditional cattle
20 %Forest reserve
Pasture80%
Integrated cattle sugarcane farm
20 %Forest reserve
Pasture (summer)
30%
Sugarcane50%
• Winter restricts productivity• 20 ha• 20 cows (13 in milk prod.)• 4.5 L/day
Sugarcane
Winter feed
Ethanol
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Most of the potential for expanding cropland area is concentrated in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa. Much of the area is presently covered by forests and other natural ecosystems and has more or less serious climate/soil constraints
Land suitability for cellulosic crop production (Fischer et al 2009)
Bioenergy Potentials: the supply side (part 1)
Cropland around year 2000
Total suitable for rain-fed crop production
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• Establishment of bioenergy plantations can also lead to that CO2 is assimilated into soils and biomass, enhancing the GHG savings. Wisely located, designed and managed plantations can also provide additional environmental services, including be beneficial for biodiversity
Small C stock
Degraded pasture Bioenergy plantation: CO2 assimilation in growing plantation enhances CO2 benefits
CO2
Larger C stock
Crop growth
CO2
Closed loop
Biofuel production and use
Expanding bioenergy : challenges
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There are significant yield gaps to exploit so potential for improving yield levels in many places
Bioenergy Potentials: the supply side (part 2)
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But the intensification requires increased inputs of e.g., N
Expanding bioenergy : challenges
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Pastures = 25 x sugarcane area
Bioenergy-food integration…
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• Integration of sugarcane ethanol production with livestock production• Stimulates livestock productivity increase, creating space for cane• Large local socioeconomic benefits and reduced risk of displacement
Bioenergy-food integration…Traditional cattle
20 %Forest reserve
Pasture80%
Integrated cattle sugarcane farm
20 %Forest reserve
Pasture (summer)
30%
Sugarcane50%
• Winter restricts productivity• 20 ha• 20 cows (13 in milk prod.)• 4.5 L/day
Sugarcane
Winter feed
Ethanol
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Water implications of bioenergy
Pastures = 25 x sugarcane area
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Water implications of bioenergy
SIWI Seminar Aug 12 2007. Berndes, Chalmers, Sweden Slide 12
010002000300040005000
2005 20500
10002000300040005000
2005 2050
010002000300040005000
2005 2050
010002000300040005000
2005 2050
010002000300040005000
2005 2050
Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa
S Asia
SE Asia
E Asia
Food
Bioenergy (212 EJ energy crops)
ET from food and bioenergy, 2005 and 2050 (km3/year)
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Role of bioenergy in strategies to…
• Increase productive use of blue/green water flows• improve water productivity in agriculture
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Role of bioenergy in strategies to…• Increase productive use of blue/green water flows• improve water productivity in agriculture
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Historic land use change
Source: Klein Goldewijk, RIVM, The Netherlands
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Historic land use change
300-400 Mha cropland
400-500 Mha pastures
ca 1600 Mha cropland
ca 3200 Mha pastures
Year 1700
Present situation (roughly)
Source: Klein Goldewijk, RIVM, The Netherlands
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The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again.Bioenergy System Reference System
Grassland with livestock
Cropland for bioenergy
Grassland with livestock
Forest
dLUC
iLUC
System Boundary
Econom
ic P
ressures
Deforestation
The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again.Bioenergy System Reference System
Grassland with livestock
Cropland for bioenergy
Grassland with livestock
Forest
dLUC
iLUC
System Boundary
Econom
ic
Deforestation
Bioenergy System Reference System
Grassland with livestock
Cropland for bioenergy
Grassland with livestock
Forest
dLUC
iLUC
System Boundary
Deforestation
Macroeconomicfactors
Displaced actorsRe-establish elsewhere
LUC emissions...
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GHG benefits of expanding bioenergy?
Source: Berndes 2006
0
100
200
300
400
500
1850 1900 1950 2000
Year
0
25
50
75
100
Accumulated emissionsto the atmosphere (Pg)
Share of annual emissions from fossil fuel burning (right axis)
Land use change
Fossil fuel burning
Cement manufactureand gas flaring
(%)
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Reports available for download:- www.ieabioenergy.com- www.ipcc.ch