GODREJ CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD ISIN...Godrej Consumer Products is a leading emerging markets company....

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GODREJ CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTDResult Update (CONSOLIDATED BASIS): Q2 FY19

CMP: 693.90 NOV 12th, 2018

Overweight ISIN:INE102D01028

Index DetailsSYNOPSIS

Godrej Consumer Products Ltd is a leadingemerging markets FMCG company.

The company has achieved consolidated Net salesof Rs. 26591.80 mn for Q2 FY19 as against Rs.25065.60 mn in Q2 FY18.

In Q2 FY19 India sales increased by 10% to Rs.14810 mn.

In Q2 FY19, consolidated EBITDA was Rs.5128.30 mn as against Rs. 5507.80 mn over thecorresponding period of last year.

Consolidated PBT at Rs. 6687.60 mn in Q2 FY19as compared to Rs. 4679.90 mn in Q2 FY18.

In Q2 FY19 consolidated net profit registered agrowth of 59.62% at Rs. 5777.30 mn as against Rs.3619.50 mn in Q2 FY18.

EPS of Rs. 5.65 for the 2nd quarter as against Rs.5.31 in the corresponding quarter of the previousyear.

The company has declared Interim Dividend @ Rs.4/- per share (400% on shares of face value of Re.1/- each) for the financial year 2018-19.

Revenue of the company for H1 FY19 rose by7.48% at Rs. 51352.00 mn as against Rs. 47778.00mn in H1 FY18.

During H1 FY19, PAT of the company stood at Rs.9827.70 mn as compared to Rs. 5871.20 mn in H1FY18.

Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected togrow at a CAGR of 8% and 26% over 2017 to2020E, respectively.

Stock DataSector Personal ProductsBSE Code 532424Face Value 1.0052wk. High / Low (Rs.) 979.82/601.87Volume (2wk. Avg.) 115000Market Cap (Rs. in mn.) 709304.58

Annual Estimated Results(A*: Actual / E*: Estimated)Years(Rs in mn) FY18A FY19E FY20ENet Sales 99369.90 107319.49 118051.44EBITDA 21746.60 23129.77 27758.61Net Profit 16341.80 19600.39 21115.60EPS 23.99 19.17 20.66P/E 28.93 36.19 33.59

Shareholding Pattern (%)

As on Sep 2018 As on June 2018

Promoter 63.25 63.26

Public 36.75 36.74

Others -- --

1 Year Comparative Graph

GODREJ CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD S&P BSE SENSEX

PEER GROUPS CMP MARKET CAP EPS(TTM) P/E (X)(TTM) P/BV(X) DIVIDEND

Company Name (Rs.) Rs. in mn. (Rs.) Ratio Ratio (%)

Godrej Consumer Products Ltd 693.90 709304.58 26.97 25.73 7.55 1200.00Hindustan Unilever Ltd 1672.55 3620483.60 26.48 63.16 51.16 2000.00Colgate – Palmolive (India) Ltd 1105.50 300680.10 27.40 40.35 19.72 2400.00Marico Ltd 340.35 439345.70 6.75 50.42 17.19 425.00


QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS (CONSOLIDATED BASIS)

Results updates- Q2 FY19,

Rs in mn Sep-18 Sep-17 % Change

Net Sales 26591.80 25065.60 6.09%

Net Profit 5777.30 3619.50 59.62%

EPS 5.65 5.31 6.38%

EBITDA 5128.30 5507.80 -6.89%

The company has achieved net sales of Rs. 26591.80 million for the 2nd quarter of the financial year 2018-19 as against

Rs. 25065.60 million in the corresponding quarter of the previous year, up by 6.09%. EBITDA of Rs. 5128.30 million in

Q2 FY19 as against Rs. 5507.80 million over the corresponding period of last year. In Q2 FY19, net profit rose by

59.62% and stood at Rs. 5777.30 million as compared to Rs. 3619.50 million in Q2 FY18. The company has reported an

EPS of Rs. 5.65 for the 2nd quarter of FY19 as compared to Rs. 5.31 per share in Q2 FY18.

Break up of Expenditure

Break up ofExpenditure

Value in Rs. Million

Q2 FY19 Q2 FY18 %Change

Cost of MaterialsConsumed 11270.70 8478.70 33%

Purchase of Stock inTrade 651.80 1305.20 -50%

Employee BenefitExpenses 2568.70 2621.10 -2%

Depreciation &Amortization Expenses 425.70 385.70 10%

Advertisement andPublicity 2558.60 2118.10 21%

Others 4041.70 3930.80 3%


Segment Revenue

BUSINESS REVIEW – INDIA:

Performance Highlights:

2Q FY 2019 India sales increased by 10% to Rs. 14810 mn

2Q FY 2019 Adjusted EBITDA increased by 14% to Rs. 3840 mn


2Q FY 2019 net profit increased by 15% to Rs. 2960 mn.

Category Review:

Household Insecticides:

Household Insecticides delivered a soft quarter. Sales declined by 2% as uneven distribution and deficient rainfall

impacted demand, especially in South India and East India which account for around 60% of sales. Company’s new

launches continue to scale up well.

Soaps:

Soaps delivered double-digit volume led sales growth of 11%. This performance was led by effective micro-marketing

initiatives, a focus on new states and strong on-ground execution.

Hair Colours:

Hair Colours continues to gain momentum and delivered double-digit volume led sales growth of 21%. Godrej Expert

Rich Creme continues to consistently deliver robust growth and has achieved the highest ever market share on an exit

basis. Company continued to focus on activations and effective media campaigns to recruit new consumers into the

category. The recently launched Godrej Nupur Herbal Based Powder hair colour is being rolled out in the market.

BUSINESS REVIEW – INTERNATIONAL:

Indonesia

Godrej’s Indonesia business sustained a robust growth momentum and delivered constant currency sales growth of 14%.

This was driven by new product launches and effective sales promotion investments, which enabled ahead of market

growth. Company maintained its market leadership position in Household Insecticides and continued to gain market share

on a year-on-year basis for the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA margins increased by 50 bps, led by cost savings initiatives.

During the quarter, the company has launched HIT Expert Long Lasting Magic Paper to up trade coil consumers.

GAUM (Africa, USA and Middle East)

GAUM cluster had a relatively soft quarter with a constant currency sales growth of 4%. Sales in the quarter was

impacted by weakness in South Africa. The West cluster continued to deliver strong growth and the East cluster is

showing early signs of recovery. Business excluding the South grew in high single-digits, in constant currency terms.

Adjusted EBITDA margins decreased by 710 bps year-on-year, driven by the lag between increase in input costs and price

hikes, upfront investments in A&P and sales promotions. During the quarter, the company has relaunched the Darling

brand in Nigeria.

DIVIDEND:


Godrej Consumer Products Ltd has declared Interim Dividend @ Rs. 4/- per share (400% on shares of face value of Re.

1/- each) for the financial year 2018-19.

COMPANY PROFILE

Godrej Consumer Products is a leading emerging markets company. As part of the 121- year young Godrej Group,

Company is fortunate to have a proud legacy built on the strong values of trust, integrity and respect for others. At the

same time, Company is growing fast and have exciting, ambitious aspirations.

Today, Godrej Group enjoys the patronage of 1.15 billion consumers globally, across different businesses. In line with its

3 by 3 approach to international expansion at Godrej Consumer Products, Godrej is building a presence in 3 emerging

markets (Asia, Africa, Latin America) across 3 categories (home care, personal wash, hair care). The company ranked

among the largest household insecticide and hair care players in emerging markets. In household insecticides, company is

the leader in India, the second largest player in Indonesia and is expanding its footprint in Africa. The company is the

leader in serving the hair care needs of women of African descent, the number one player in hair colour in India and Sub-

Saharan Africa, and among the leading players in Latin America. Godrej ranked number two in soaps in India and are the

number one player in air fresheners and wet tissues in Indonesia.

FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHT (CONSOLIDATED BASIS) (A*- Actual, E* -Estimations & Rs. In Millions)Balance Sheet as of March 31, 2017 -2020E

FY17A FY18A FY19E FY20EASSETS1) Non-Current Assets

a) Property, plant and Equipment 9425.80 10663.60 11729.96 12785.66b) Capital Work in Progress 951.10 820.80 738.72 701.78c) Goodwill 46625.60 47188.70 52851.34 58136.48d) Other Intangible Assets 24777.50 25297.70 26562.59 27625.09e) Intangible Assets under Development 23.20 18.00 23.04 27.19f) Financial Assets

i) Investments in Subsidiaries and Associates 352.40 363.20 374.10 392.80ii) Investments 2165.10 1052.00 526.00 405.02iii) Loans 192.80 188.70 198.14 204.08iv) Others 53.50 95.70 17.23 12.92

g) Deferred Tax Assets (net) 962.80 1000.40 1580.63 2181.27h) Other Non-Current Assets 597.70 648.90 421.79 316.34i) Non-Current Tax Assets (net) 457.30 612.60 906.65 1142.38Sub - Total Non- Current Assets 86584.80 87950.30 95930.17 103931.00

2) Current Assetsa) Inventories 14125.00 15777.20 14515.02 13644.12b) Financial assets

i) Investments 6817.90 8557.60 8814.33 9255.04ii) Trade Receivables 10287.40 12455.00 13202.30 13730.39iii) Cash and Cash Equivalents 8950.50 8980.20 6286.14 7229.06


iv) Bank Balances Other than Cash 176.10 621.90 497.52 572.15v) Loans 36.10 28.90 14.45 11.85

vi) Others 1900.40 1991.10 1971.19 1912.05c) Other Current Assets 1422.20 3264.90 4734.11 6533.06d) Assets for current tax 64.90 0.00 2.40 2.50Sub - Total Current Assets 43780.50 51676.80 50037.46 52890.23

Total Assets (1+2) 130365.30 139627.10 145967.63 156821.23EQUITY AND LIABILITIES1) EQUITY

a) Equity Share Capital 340.60 681.30 1022.20 1022.20b) Other Equity 52678.90 61901.80 71187.07 79729.52

Total Equity 53019.50 62583.10 72209.27 80751.722) Non Current Liabilities

a) Financial Liabilitiesi) Borrowings 31082.50 23803.20 19042.56 16109.82ii) Other Financial Liabilities 9112.40 7539.50 2111.06 1519.96

b) Provisions 805.70 982.40 1100.29 1188.31c) Deferred Tax Liabilities (net) 2861.10 3047.20 3290.98 3488.43d) Other Non – Current Liabilities 10.50 23.70 28.44 33.56Sub - Total Non Current Liabilities 43872.20 35396.00 25573.32 22340.09

3) Current Liabilitiesa) Financial liabilities

i) Borrowings 2325.50 1405.10 2269.30 2904.70ii) Trade Payables 17239.00 23568.50 24746.93 25736.80iii) Other Financial Liabilities 10226.40 12853.90 17738.38 21954.53

b) Other Current Liabilities 3025.40 3113.60 2490.88 2117.25c) Short Term Provisions 581.40 478.20 516.46 542.28d) Current Tax Liabilities 75.90 228.70 423.10 473.86Sub - Total Current Liabilities 33473.60 41648.00 48185.04 53729.42

Total Equity and Liabilities (1+2+3) 130365.30 139627.10 145967.63 156821.23Annual Profit & Loss Statement for the period of 2017 to 2020E

Value(Rs.in.mn) FY17A FY18A FY19E FY20E

Description 12m 12m 12m 12mNet Sales 96088.00 99369.90 107319.49 118051.44Other Income 753.00 1075.50 1129.28 1197.03Total Income 96841.00 100445.40 108448.77 119248.47Expenditure -77110.80 -78698.80 -85319.00 -91489.87Operating Profit 19730.20 21746.60 23129.77 27758.61Interest -1452.20 -1607.40 -2009.25 -2149.90Gross profit 18278.00 20139.20 21120.52 25608.71Depreciation -1415.70 -1556.80 -1681.34 -1765.41Exceptional Items 0.80 1795.60 2424.06 -250.45Profit Before Tax 16863.10 20378.00 21863.24 23592.85Tax -3791.60 -4047.00 -2262.85 -2477.25Profit After Tax 13071.50 16331.00 19600.39 21115.60Share of Profit & Loss of Assoc 8.20 10.80 0.00 0.00Net Profit 13079.70 16341.80 19600.39 21115.60Equity capital 340.60 681.30 1022.20 1022.20Reserves 52678.90 61901.80 71187.07 79729.52


Face value 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00EPS 38.40 23.99 19.17 20.66

Quarterly Profit & Loss Statement for the period of 31st Mar, 2018 to 31st Dec, 2018E

Value(Rs.in.mn) 31-Mar-18 30-June-18 30-Sep-18 31-Dec-18EDescription 3m 3m 3m 3mNet sales 25288.90 24760.20 26591.80 28187.31Other income 289.90 309.50 260.00 291.20Total Income 25578.80 25069.70 26851.80 28478.51Expenditure -19320.10 -20318.60 -21723.50 -22338.44Operating profit 6258.70 4751.10 5128.30 6140.07Interest -422.40 -477.30 -612.20 -642.81Gross profit 5836.30 4273.80 4516.10 5497.26Depreciation -401.40 -421.30 -425.70 -446.99Exceptional Items 1938.10 -61.90 2597.20 -42.74Profit Before Tax 7373.00 3790.60 6687.60 5007.54Tax -1204.00 259.80 -911.40 -842.77Profit After Tax 6169.00 4050.40 5776.20 4164.77Share of Profit & Loss of Assoc 2.90 0.00 1.10 1.16Net Profit 6171.90 4050.40 5777.30 4165.92Equity capital 681.30 681.30 1022.20 1022.20Face value 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00EPS 9.06 5.95 5.65 4.08Ratio Analysis

Particulars FY17A FY18A FY19E FY20E

EPS (Rs.) 38.40 23.99 19.17 20.66EBITDA Margin (%) 20.53% 21.88% 21.55% 23.51%PBT Margin (%) 17.55% 20.51% 20.37% 19.99%PAT Margin (%) 13.60% 16.43% 18.26% 17.89%P/E Ratio (x) 18.07 28.93 36.19 33.59ROE (%) 24.65% 26.09% 27.14% 26.15%ROCE (%) 21.19% 23.00% 22.93% 26.05%Debt Equity Ratio 0.63 0.40 0.30 0.24EV/EBITDA (x) 12.86 22.06 30.91 25.62Book Value (Rs.) 155.67 91.86 70.64 79.00P/BV 4.46 7.55 9.82 8.78

Charts


OUTLOOK AND CONCLUSION

At the current market price of Rs. 693.90, the stock P/E ratio is at 36.19 x FY19E and 33.59 x FY20E respectively.


Earning per share (EPS) of the company for the earnings for FY19E and FY20E is seen at Rs. 19.17 and Rs. 20.66

respectively.

Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 8% and 26% over 2017 to 2020E,

respectively.

On the basis of EV/EBITDA, the stock trades at 30.91 x for FY19E and 25.62 x for FY20E.

Price to Book Value of the stock is expected to be at 9.82 x and 8.78 x for FY19E and FY20E respectively.

Hence, we say that, we are Overweight in this particular scrip for Medium to Long term investment.

INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

FMCG Sector:

Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector is the 4th largest sector in the Indian economy with Household and Personal

Care accounting for 50 per cent of FMCG sales in India. Growing awareness, easier access and changing lifestyles have

been the key growth drivers for the sector. The urban segment (accounts for a revenue share of around 60 per cent) is the

largest contributor to the overall revenue generated by the FMCG sector in India and recorded a market size of around

US$ 29.4 billion in 2016-17. However, in the last few years, the FMCG market has grown at a faster pace in rural India

compared with urban India. Semi-urban and rural segments are growing at a rapid pace and FMCG products account for

50 per cent of total rural spending.

The Retail market in India is estimated to reach US$ 1.1 trillion by 2020 from US$ 672 billion in 2016, with modern trade

expected to grow at 20 per cent - 25 per cent per annum, which is likely to boost revenues of FMCG companies. In 2016-

17, revenue for FMCG sector have reached US$ 49 billion and is expected to grow at 9-9.5 per cent in FY18 supported by

expectations of the total consumption expenditure reaching nearly US$ 3,600 billion by 2020 from US$ 1,469 billion in

2015.

Government initiatives:

Some of the major initiatives taken by the government to promote the FMCG sector in India are as follows:

In the Union Budget 2017-18, the Government of India has proposed to spend more on the rural side with an aim to

double the farmer’s income in five years; as well as the cut in income tax rate targeting mainly the small tax payers,

focus on affordable housing and infrastructure development will provide multiple growth drivers for the consumer

market industry.

The Government of India’s decision to allow 100 per cent Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in online retail of goods

and services through the automatic route has provided clarity on the existing businesses of e-commerce companies

operating in India.


With the demand for skilled labour growing among Indian industries, the government plans to train 500 million

people by 2022 and is also encouraging private players and entrepreneurs to invest in the venture. Many governments,

corporate and educational organizations are working towards providing training and education to create a skilled

workforce.

The Government of India has drafted a new Consumer Protection Bill with special emphasis on setting up an

extensive mechanism to ensure simple, speedy, accessible, affordable and timely delivery of justice to consumers.

The Goods and Services Tax (GST) is beneficial for the FMCG industry as many of the FMCG products such as

Soap, Toothpaste and Hair oil now come under 18 per cent tax bracket against the previous 23-24 per cent rate.

Opportunities:

The company continued to make strong progress on its exciting journey to be a leading FMCG player in emerging

markets. The future potential for GCPL is tremendous.

Company’s focus continues to be on driving market leading, sustainable and profitable growth.

Creating delight for its consumers through innovative, differentiated products, is core to its approach. To enable this,

Company is using the design thinking tools of empathy, rapid prototyping and visualization to re-imagine its brands

and create new ones.

The company is accelerating its innovation pipeline, ramping up capabilities, investing significantly in Research &

Development and cross-pollinating products across geographies.

The new products launched in the last 5 years account for 20 per cent of global growth and 35 per cent of India

growth. Company is also excited by a lot of the new capabilities and transformations.

Company is exploring in digital, advanced analytics, go-to-market and supply chain technologies. All of this will

enable the company to create strong value in the coming years.

Road Ahead:

Rural consumption has increased, led by a combination of increasing incomes and higher aspiration levels; there is an

increased demand for branded products in rural India. The rural FMCG market in India is expected to grow at a CAGR of

14.6 per cent, and reach US$ 220 billion by 2025 from US$ 29.4 billion in 2016.

On the other hand, with the share of un-organized market in the FMCG sector falling, the organized sector growth is

expected to rise with increased level of brand consciousness, also augmented by the growth in modern retail.

Another major factor propelling the demand for food services in India is the growing youth population, primarily in the

country’s urban regions. India has a large base of young consumers who form the majority of the workforce and, due to

time constraints, barely get time for cooking.


Online portals are expected to play a key role for companies trying to enter the hinterlands. The Internet has contributed in

a big way, facilitating a cheaper and more convenient means to increase a company’s reach. By the year 2025, e-

commerce will contribute around 10-15 per cent sales of few categories in the FMCG sector.

Disclosure Section

The information and opinions in Firstcall Research was prepared by our analysts and it does not constitute an offer orsolicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument including any companies scrips or this is not an officialconfirmation of any transaction. The information contained herein is from publicly available secondary sources and dataor other secondary sources believed to be reliable but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should notbe relied on as such. Firstcall Research or any of its affiliates shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damagethat may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Firstcall Research and/or its affiliates and/or employees will not be liable for the recipients’ investment decision based on this document.

Analyst Certification

The following analysts hereby state that their views about the companies and sectors are on best effort basis to the best oftheir knowledge. Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are research analysts. Theanalyst qualifications, sectors covered and their exposure if any are tabulated hereunder:

Name of the Analyst Qualifications SectorsCovered

Exposure/Interest tocompany/sector Under


Coverage in the CurrentReport

Dr.C.V.S.L. Kameswari M.Sc, PGDCA,M.B.A,Ph.D (Finance)

Pharma &Diversified

No Interest/ Exposure

U. Janaki Rao M.B.A CapitalGoods


B. Anil Kumar M.B.A Auto, IT &FMCG


V. Harini Priya M.B.A Diversified No Interest/ ExposureB. Srikanth M.B.A Diversified No Interest/ Exposure

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Within the last 12 months, Firstcall Research has neither provided or is providing any services to and/or in the past has notentered into an agreement to provide services or does not have a client relationship with the company under the researchcoverage.

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Analyst Stock Weights

Overweight (O): The stock's total return is expected to exceed the average total return of the analyst's industry (orindustry team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months.

Equal-weight (E): The stock's total return is expected to be in line with the average total return of the analyst's industry(or industry team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months.

No-weight (NR): Currently the analyst does not have adequate conviction about the stock's total return relative to theaverage total return of the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next12-18 months.

Underweight (U): The stock's total return is expected to be below the average total return of the analyst's industry (orindustry team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months.

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GODREJ CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD ISIN...Godrej Consumer Products is a leading emerging markets company....

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