Go for preventive maintenance! - Svenskt Underhåll...1) Go for preventive maintenance! 2) Eliminate...

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Transcript of Go for preventive maintenance! - Svenskt Underhåll...1) Go for preventive maintenance! 2) Eliminate...

  • 1) Go for preventive maintenance!

    2) Eliminate process problems

    3) Segment your spare parts portfolio

    4) Evaluate spare parts criticality

    5) Spare parts management starts with good forecasting

    6) Use special methods for intermittent demand items

    7) Consider the whole life cycle of your equipment

    8) Computers and technologies will help you

    Eight rules for efficient SPM

  • Go for preventive maintenance!

  • STANDARD

    PLANNED

    PLANNED

    MAINTENANCE

    CORRECTIVE

    (REPAIRS)

    UNPLANNED

    PREDICTIVE

    PROACTIVE

    DEFFERED

    CORRECTIVE

    PLANNED PROCUREMENTINVENTORY

    MANAGEMENT

    Go for preventive maintenance!

  • Eliminate process problems

  • SPARE PARTS PROCESS

    Who is responsiblefor spares stock?

    Who/how oftenapproves?

    Procurementspecification missing

    Insufficient sparesidentification

    Are returns to warehouse allowed?

  • Spare parts process – benchmarking

    Internal best practice

  • PLANT 1 PLANT 2 PLANT 3 PLANT 4

    0

    0,1

    0,2

    0,3

    0,4

    0,5

    0,6

    0,7

    1 2 3 4

    Comparison of inventory turnover

  • Eliminate process problems

    SP NEED

    IDENTIFICATION

    No direct responsibility of maintenance engineers/technicians for

    “their” items and spare parts levels.

    REQUEST

    FOR ORDER

    RFO created by someone else, not the technician who requested part.

    The step of RFO may not be necessary in the process.

    APPROVAL

    How often are orders approved? Who approves?

    Approving in IS workflow or by signing a paper copy? Or both?

    Approving both RFO and then issued order again?

    Too many approvers, complicated procedure and hierarchy.

    Approving on high levels of management.

    PROCUREMENT

    Insufficient information available to procurement, poor spare parts

    identification – the buyer hardly knows what should be bought,

    additional communication with maintenance technician is needed.

    Missing or incomplete procurement specification in the IS.

  • EOQ

    MAX

    Ordering systems

    s|Q

    s|S

    Fixed period

    Fixe

    dq

    uan

    tity

    Var

    iab

    leq

    uan

    tity

    B|Q

    B|S

    Variable period

  • Ideal world: inventory management modelConstant demand and lead time

    STOCK

    400

    200

    0Days 10 20 30 40 50 60

    Order sent Order sentAverage

    stock

    Goods deliveredGoods delivered

  • Order more often!

    STOCK

    400

    200

    0DAYS 10 20 30 40 50 60

    Order sent Order sentAverage

    stock

    Goods deliveredGoods delivered

    No impactto risk!!

    Real example: Material 210015: from order quantity 200 000 pcs down to 80 000 pcs: reduction of average stock by 60 000 pcs = 265 546 Kč

  • Optimal order size – EOQEconomic Order Quantity

    Ordering cost(transportation)

    Inventory holding cost

    (warehousing)

    Total cost

    No impactto risk!!

    Orderingdaily

    Ordering oncea year

    Order size [pcs]

  • Eliminate process problems

    CONSUMPTIONSlow spare part issues in case of sudden need.

    Issued spare parts are not consumed in fact. What happens then?

    Consumption of external material even in case the part is on stock.

    WAREHOUSE

    RETURNS AND

    REFURBISHED

    SPARE PARTS

    Refurbished parts return to warehouse while new are bought.

    Accounting price of refurbished items is much higher (or lower) than

    the non-realistic value of items on stock.

    Problematic or impossible returns of parts issued but not consumed.

    Insufficient control of parts dismantled from the maintained object

    (the information system has no information about these).

    RECEPTIONProblems with missing (undelivered) documentation for the received

    material (certificates, declarations).

    Lost spare parts documentation – only “paper-based” archiving.

    WAREHOUSING

    Insufficient identification of spare parts in the warehouse.

    Problems to find items stored.

    Inventory count discrepancies, physical stock different from

    information system data.

    Non-real value of stock in the information system.

    Out-of-system stocks.

  • How are your bearings doing?

  • How are your bearings doing?

  • How are your bearings doing?

  • Segment your spare parts portfolio

  • Service level x locked-in capital

    Inventoryvalue

    90 % 95 % 98 % 99 % 100 %?

    Service level / availability

    What items are really important?

  • What items are really important?

    Dominant categoriesC and D are typical forspares parts

    On-hand inventory value

    Consumed quantity

  • ABC analysis – on hand inventory value

    Value of available inventory

  • ABC analysis – consumed quantity

    In spare parts, C and D categories typically prevail

    Quantity

  • Spare parts inventories segmentation – consumption frequency(in quantity)

  • Spare parts inventories segmentation – consumption frequency (in value)

  • WHEN?

    HOW MANY?

    WHEN?

    HOW MANY?

    Strategic segmentation of spare parts

    CONSIDER CONSIGNATION

    CONSIDER CONSIGNATION

    CONSIDER CONSIGNATION

    CONSIDER CONSIGNATION

    BUY

    BUY

    BUY

    BUY

    CONSIDER CONSIGNATION

    CONSIGNATION

    BUY BACK

    BUY

    TYP

    E O

    F FO

    REC

    AST

    CONSUMPTION FREQUENCY

  • Example of buyback application

    20 pieces were purchased for turnaround in 2010 for 41.2 M CZK, but these spare parts

    were not used during the turnaround and will be stored until the next turnaround in 2014.

    Buy-back in this case can save 9 M CZK (360k EUR) on storage and locked-in capital cost

    Between shutdowns

  • Evaluate spare parts criticality

  • Effects of failure

    Production losses

    Links to asset register, critical assets (RCM)

    Delivery time

    Repairability

    Number of items in use

    Maintenance planning

    Part lifespan

    Failure probability

    Failure characteristics

    Failure anticipation

    Price

    % cost of capital

    Cost ofinventory

    holdingFailureprobability

    Impacts ofspare part unavailability

    Leadtime andother

    parameters

    Spare parts criticality – 4 bits of information

  • 𝐶𝑖𝑛𝑣 = 𝐶𝑢𝑛 ∗ 𝐿𝑇 ∗ 𝑓

    10 000 EUR x 10% 100 EUR / day 100 days 1 per 2 years

    1 000 EUR 5 000 EUR

    KEEP ON STOCK

    <

    Criticality calculation

    INVENTORY HOLDING UNAVAILABILITY LEAD TIME FAILURE RATE

  • CMMS spare partsmaster data

    RCM dataSpare parts

    consumptionforecasts

    Preliminarysegmentationof spare parts

    Quantitativeevaluation of

    criticality

    Qualitativeevaluation of

    criticality

    PreviousSP criticalityassessments

    (if available)

    Cost ofunavailability

    (from RCM or other sources)

    Planning Wizarddata analysis

    CMMS spare partstransactions

    data

    Assessment by maintenance engineers and

    technicians

    Potentiallycritical items

    Critical items (criticality score)

    Non-criticalitems

    Non-criticalitems

    1

    2

    2-levelevaluation of criticality

  • Criticality evaluation

    Critical SP Non-critical SP

    Intermittentconsumption

    Regular consumption

    Stock level set byBootstrapping

    Longleadtime

    Standard modelsof stock

    management+ Safety stock

    Standard modelsof stock

    management

    Shortleadtime

    Stock level is set based on level of

    criticality and quantity of

    installed pieces

    Stock level is validated by maintenance

    technician

    Criticality

    Consumption frequency

    Lead time

    Potentially critical SP Non-critical SPPreliminary identification

    of potentially criticalitems

    Recommended method of stock control (stock level

    calculation)

    All active spare parts (SP) Spare parts segmentation

    For items under Framework contractswith vendors, automated MRP ordering

    in ERP can be applied

  • Qualitative criticality assessment: online app

  • Login

    Login = Příjmení

    Heslo = Jméno

    Příklad:

    tokac miroslav

  • Selection of items to evaluate

  • Answering few simple questions

  • Answering few simple questions, send

  • Done – items evaluated

  • Spare parts criticality analysis result

    Criticality score

    Spare parts items

  • Simple segmentation: FSN, VED and SDE

    39 http://www.yourarticlelibrary.com/business-management/marketing-management-business-management/ved-analysis-sde-analysis-and-fsn-analysis/69363

    V

    E

    D

    F

    S

    N

    Fast-moving

    Slow-moving

    Non-moving

    Vital

    Essential

    Desirable

    S

    D

    E

    Scarce

    Difficult

    Easy

    Consumption CriticalityAvailability

    on themarket

    http://www.yourarticlelibrary.com/business-management/marketing-management-business-management/ved-analysis-sde-analysis-and-fsn-analysis/69363

  • Spare parts management starts with good forecasting

  • Quantitative methods x Common sense

    Quantitativemethods

    Commonsense

    MAKE EFFICIENT!MAXIMIZE!

  • Quantitative methods x Common sense

    Quantitative methods

    Common sense

    Unexplained / Random

    Uncertaintyof future

    consumption

    Maximize

    Make efficient

    Minimize

  • Forecasting step-by-step

    Visualisation of time seriesFor better understanding of the time series

    Calculation of accuracyAbsolute and relative errors, evaluation on testing season

    Calculation of forecasts using all available methods

    Selection of the best methodBest accuracy and reliability

    1

    3

    2

    4

  • What forecast method is best for spare parts?

    1% 1%2%

    3%5%

    9%

    79%

    Konstantní model

    Regresní model

    Holtovo exp. vyrovnání

    Jednoduché exp.vyrovnáníKlouzavý průměr

    Winters

    Forecasting není možný

    Constant model

    Regression model

    Holt’s exp. smoothing

    Simple exp. smoothing

    Moving average

    Winters

    Forecasting impossible?

    ???

  • Use special forecasting methods for intermittent demand items

  • Týd

    enn

    í sp

    otř

    eby

    ND

    Historie týdenních spotřeb (týdny)

    4 13 17 300

    1

    2

    3

    4

    81 18 25 2726

    32

    Spare parts – intermittent demand

    Monthly consumption history (months)

    Mo

    nth

    lysp

    are

    par

    tsco

    nsu

    mp

    tio

    n (

    pie

    ces)

    QUESTION: What reorder level should be set in order to ensure required availability of a spare part?

  • Týd

    enn

    í sp

    otř

    eby

    ND

    Historie týdenních spotřeb (týdny)

    4 13 17 300

    1

    2

    3

    4

    81 18 25 2726

    32

    BootstrappingBootstrapping = random sampling from history of consumptions.

    SP consumption for lead-time period is sampled from history

    Sample 1: Consumption in

    6 months = 5 pcs

    Example: SP lead time is

    6 months

    Monthly consumption history (months)

    Mo

    nth

    lysp

    are

    par

    tsco

    nsu

    mp

    tio

    n (

    pie

    ces)

  • Týd

    enn

    í sp

    otř

    eby

    ND

    Historie týdenních spotřeb (týdny)

    4 13 17 300

    1

    2

    3

    4

    81 18 25 2726

    32

    Bootstrapping

    Vzorek 2: Spotřeba za

    6 týdnů = 0 ks

    Sample 2: Consumption in

    6 months = 0 pcs

    Weekly consumption history (weeks)

    Spar

    e p

    art

    con

    sum

    pti

    on

    (p

    iece

    s)

    Monthly consumption history (months)

    Mo

    nth

    lysp

    are

    par

    tsco

    nsu

    mp

    tio

    n (

    pie

    ces)

  • Bootstrapping

    Vzorek 3: Spotřeba za

    6 týdnů = 12 ks

    Týd

    enn

    í sp

    otř

    eby

    ND

    Historie týdenních spotřeb (týdny)

    4 13 17 300

    1

    2

    3

    4

    81 18 25 2726

    32

    Sample 3: Consumption in

    6 months = 12 pcs

    Weekly consumption history (weeks)

    Wee

    kly

    SP c

    on

    sum

    pti

    on

    Monthly consumption history (months)

    Mo

    nth

    lysp

    are

    par

    tsco

    nsu

    mp

    tio

    n (

    pie

    ces)

  • Bootstrapping

    Vzorek 4: Spotřeba za

    6 týdnů = 2 ks

    Týd

    enn

    í sp

    otř

    eby

    ND

    Historie týdenních spotřeb (týdny)

    4 13 17 300

    1

    2

    3

    4

    81 18 25 2726

    32

    Sample 4: Consumption in6 months = 2 pcs

    Weekly consumption history (weeks)

    Wee

    kly

    SP c

    on

    sum

    pit

    on

    Monthly consumption history (months)

    Mo

    nth

    lysp

    are

    par

    tsco

    nsu

    mp

    tio

    n (

    pie

    ces)

  • Če

    tno

    sti s

    po

    tře

    b v

    jed

    no

    tliv

    ých

    inte

    rva

    lech

    (z

    e s

    imu

    lace

    )

    Spotřeba během LT – intervaly (ks)

    0 5 10 15

    60 000

    0

    30 000

    Ku

    mu

    lati

    vní p

    ravd

    ěp

    od

    ob

    no

    st s

    po

    tře

    by

    100 %

    Example of 100 000 simulations of SP consumption

    Target: SP availability (Service level) = 99%

    OPTIMUM INVENTORY = 9 PCS

    Consumption during leadtime (pcs)

    Cu

    mm

    ula

    tive

    pro

    bab

    ility

    of

    con

    sum

    pti

    on

    Freq

    uen

    cies

    of

    con

    sum

    pti

    on

    (fro

    m s

    imu

    lati

    on

    )

  • Bootstrapping application – a case study

    Original inventory: 17 000 EUR(49 pcs)

    Spare part lead-time: 32 days

    Recommended inventory

    29 pcs

    10 000 EUR

    Savings

    7 000 EUR

    99.9% availability

    Intermittent demand

  • Minimum level 2 pcs

  • Life cycle thinking:Consider the whole life cycle of your assets

  • PROCUREMENT

    MAINTENANCE

    RENOVATION

    COST

    PROFIT?PROFIT

    MAINTENANCE CREATES VALUE!

    ASSET LIFE CYCLE

  • Asset life cycle (Kari Komonen, EFNMS EAMC)

    INVESTMENT UTILIZATION

    $$

  • PROCUREMENT

    MAINTENANCE

    RENOVATION

    COST

    PROFIT?PROFIT

    MAINTENANCE CREATES VALUE!

    ASSET LIFE CYCLE

    PROFIT

  • Efficient spare parts management:

    Computers, information systems and technologies will help you!

  • Efficient spare parts management – 8 rules

    Preventive maintenance Smooth SP processes

    Segment your SP portfolio Assess criticality

    Good forecastingSpecial methods for

    intermittent demand items

    Life cycle thinkingGood information system

    and smart tools

  • Good information system for spare parts management

    Quantitative methods

    Common sense

    Uncertainty

    Maximize!

    Make efficient!

    Minimize!

    ForecastingInventory levels

    Ordering

    Input of technicians and procurement

    Criticality analysis

    Forecast accuracyand reliability

  • Identification of spare parts in smartphone

    Even you can have an app in your phone that solves your process or problem.Today it is easy. And cheap.

  • Forecasting of spare parts consumption with neural networksAI and advanced statistics work for us.

  • Artificial intelligence is working for us:Diagnostics from acoustic emission using neural networks

    Analysis ofdata in place

    of origin

    Remotediagnostics

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yuZtnEZEOxw

  • Prevention, inspectionand cleaning:Jettyrobot

    Even more preventive

    maintenance

  • 3D PRINTING OF SPARE PARTS IS REALITY

    Today, blades for gasturbines can be printed

    Keepspares on printer!

  • Culture Eats Strategy

    For Breakfast,

    Innovation For Lunch,

    And Transformation

    For Dinner

    CULTURE STRATEGY

  • Efficient Spare Parts Management

    MAINTENANCE VOLUME

    SPARE PARTS INVENTORY

    MAINTENANCE VOLUME

    SPARE PARTS INVENTORY

  • Thank youLogio, s.r.o.Evropská 37160 41 Praha 6

    Tel +420 731 151 276Email [email protected]: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomashladik/

    www.logio.cz

    https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomashladik/