GMF Nato - South Atlantic

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p a p e r s e r i e s

southern atlanticism

Geopolitics and strateGy for the

other half of the atlantic rim

ian o. lesser

The German marshall Fund oF The uniTed sTaTes



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Southr Atlticism

Geopolitics and strategy for the

other half of the Atlantic Rim

Brussls Forum Ppr Sris

Mrch 2010

Ian O. Lee*

Te Gean Maa Fnd f e Uned Sae

Indn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3

Redveng e S Aan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4

Te Aan and e Gba S . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6

Rng Pwe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8

New Geee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Te New Fnna Agenda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Sen Exe, Sen Inee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

Se Aenave Sena . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Aan a Mveabe Fea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Ian f Saegy and Py . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

*Ian O. Lee a en anaan few w e Gean Maa Fnd f e Uned Sae (GMF). A GMF, e de e Medeanean

Py Pga. P jnng GMF, D. Lee en ve a deade a e RAND Can. F 994-995, e wa a ebe f e Py

Pannng Sa a e U.S. Deaen f Sae.



Southr Atlticism

Gopolitics strt or th othr hl o th Atltic Rim3

T ae exe anaan ean n awde fae, and anae e e f a e

baaned and dvee e f ane and

e Aan ban. Wa d be e dve f a

new and wde Aan? Tend n e gba

a a we ae a f e eqan, angde

angng eae f nana we and ena.

New and wef a ae eegng, and evea

f ee w be fnd n e Aan. A e

ae e, e fegn and ey y agenda

angng n fnna e. Se f e

nen nen, f enegy ey

e envnen, f nenana e gan, w eanae f e be

aed by deveen de e n Aan.

A wde, nfed Aan ye ne ena

f e fe, b ady e key ne.

T anay vey e evvng ene, exe

aenave ena, and ffe e an

f anaan aegy.

F e a 5 yea, a ea, e ene f gavy n anaan ean a been fy ed n

e Nen Heee. T eay nkey

be vened anye n. B e nex

deade key bng a gnfan ebaanng

f ean and and wn e Aan ae,

w e S Aan ayng a age e n

a, en, and ey e. T f

w be dven by e e f Baz and S Afa

a gba a, a we a e gwng e f

We Afa a an enegy vde. Envnena

aenge eanang f e S Aan

w a ay a e. Cne n b de f e Aan, and n b eee, ae key

eek new geee n e exena ean,

enane e gea weg, and

dvefy e ea and aeg e. In e

e, Aan enan w be edveed,

eaeed, and eaed. Te e ay be e e

f e Aan dene, e abe and

ay enfng, e eang n an

n en.

Introduction

1



Th Grm Mrshll Fu o th Uit Stts4

In many ways, the

rebalancing of

Atlantic geopolitics

is less a new

development than

a rediscovery of

historic patterns.

In nkng g eve f, ednn beween e anaan “n” and

“” de n nf gega

defnn. Te anay nde e Sen

Heee and e g en ade.

B a ake an f ean w

Mex and e Cabbean, and a f N and

We Afa we abve e eqa. Te eevan

dnn e a an gega. F

e eeve f Baz’ aeg nee, e

eevan deaan baby n fa ff e

eqa. Eean and N Aean g

e ne e e T f Cane NATO’ gna en dean a e 3d

aae. In gea e, e “” n e

eye f e bede.

In any way, e ebaanng f Aan

ge e a new deveen an a

edvey f aen. F ene,

e Eean engageen n e Aan wd

ad gnfan en a we a nen

denn, and a n, en denn

wa fa e nen n en and aeg

e. F e 5 eny g e end f e 7, Eean engageen n e Cabbean

and Lan Aea, and e geve exann

f ea e dwn e a f Afa and n

e Indan Oean, gave e S Aan a ena

ae n e a f ee. Te N Aan

wa, eavey eakng, a aeg bakwae.

S , e f eny f Aean eene

n e nenana age wa aed a age

exen by nee kng n e Ween

Heee, and wad en Ee and e

Bazan Ve Ada Ma Cea Fe debe anagnay aeg ne f Tndad and Tbag Daka a5 degee n ade. Ced n Mane Aane da Ra, “OAan S Nv Deaf Mnda,” n Mane Fan,ed., Pga, Os Estados Unidos e a Africa Austral (Lbn: IPRI/L-Aean Fndan, 6).

Medeanean.

P-na Lan Aea aa ad egna e e, nang

w e eabed age f a n and

. In e f deade f e eny,

Agenna wa a gy deveed ny w a

e aa ne ang e ge n e wd.

Ye, w qen, e a eny n

anaan ean a been aaezed by e

ay f e nen ban. I a been aed

by e weg f nveen beween nen

Ee and e Uned Sae, and e eave

f ey ean and ea n a eN Aan, ndeed by e exeene

f w wd wa.3 Tday, dee e e f e

Paf R ene, e Aan wd ean

a ednan n n ade and fnane.

Fw a e Aan an f $ n

n ave fegn de nveen ane.

Te bk f avy N-N, eavng

naed negave ena wn and

w e en ban.4 Te Cd Wa ngy

enfed N Aan ax. F a 5

yea, e key aeg ze wee be fnd n

e nen and ena fn, and e aeaae ee aea, and e key a

ean wee aayed ang a ne eng

f Bnn Pa, Lndn, and Wangn.

Te nen denn wa aan, and

e en eey wa agnazed. Te

nn-agned veen nwandng, e

ane f a n e “gba ,” wee

ey aeed a a, wa agey devave f

e and en eneed eewee.

Te eae Aean da n wee eabed nM and Pga, ndng e Aze.

3 See Fe Dav, The Atlantic System (Lndn: Aen andUnwn 943).

4 T agen deveed a eng by Anne-Mae Sagen “Aea’ Edge: Pwe n e Newked Ceny,” Foreign

Affairs, Jan./Feb. 9.

Rediscovering the South Atlantic

2



Southr Atlticism


Te ng, aed y f S Aan ae eevane f e nex age n wde Aan

ean. On e ve de, ne a

Pga and San, eea nenana

affa n een deade, w ave a aave

advanage n ndeandng and engagng ane

a Baz and Agenna, and M. Te

egay a a a bed de, f e. Few

Bazan Angan wd w ev e

na exeene f n- ean n e

Aan. Indeed, bed e ay we be

ang e eadng eden a enfgedand wde e f anaan ean. A a

de e n Aan anea enk

e Aan dene, ey ay ny

eek dane eeve f d and neqa

ean. J a NATO nne fae

bana b day aenge n

ea e Aab and M wd, aane

eff n any a f e Aan wd

fae bana dega eane ang

b and e ee.




It is also likely

much new

interaction and

cooperation in

the wider Atlantic

space will take

place at the

level of cities

and regions,

and not just

between central

governments and

multinational

institutions.

Deveen n e gba a a we wave an nfene n e aae f ean

and e Aan. Tee end ae key

ave ea gnfane. F, e wee

en gw ae ave been eavey

g. Te eene f end w be

e nfene f eegng a a Baz,

Ngea, and Anga, and de new aen

f en and a nean. Cna and

Inda ae e bv ae f aned g-

gw ae dvng a ange n gba

a eny. B an exae w

a be fnd wn e Aan ae. Te ady exandng e f Cna n We Afa and S

Aea a been wdey ded. A e ae

e, e ng Aan a ae key aqe

new ake n e d Aan ene. Feed

by enegy eanng, Angan nve ae aeady

a vbe eene n bankng and ea eae n

Pga, n e aen f ngandng Bazan

nveen n Pga and eewee n Ee.

Ove e, ge-gw ae g naw e

ey ga beween Ee and N Aea,

n e ne and, and e ene f eadngLan Aean and Afan ne n e e.

A e nana eve, an fe a f a e

aeve nenana fe. I a key

exand e aeady bana eve f anaan

nean a e eve f nn, f, and

ndvda. A e e w key

be a e gbazed . W qen, e

deveng ne f e “Gba S” w

be e and e eavy banzed.

Leadng exae f ee end w be fnd n

e Aan, w ega e a Sã

Pa and Lag eadng e way. Te aegadjen a ay be eqed ee ee

dega aenge w enfe e need f

e ean beween n and n e

Aan ae.5

Unde ee ndn, akey new nean and ean n

e wde Aan ae w ake ae a e eve

f e and egn, and n j beween ena

gvenen and nana nn.

Send, dyna a e Gba S a

aeady aed e ena f new agnen a a

n aenave e Eaan de. T

a ng been a f e fegn y de

n Inda, S Afa, and Baz (and, f e,

Cna and Ra). Regna a a dvee a

Mex and Tkey ae aaed e nef aenave agnen and dvefan,

fen exeed n e vabay f e S,

tier mondisme, and an dega aaen

nn-agnen. Eegng a n e Aan

aena ay fnd eeve n beween deny

w e Gba S, ndng Cna and Inda,

e wn egna abn, and e e

f enaned ean w Aan ane,

n and . Tee enn ae nkey

be fy eved, b wde qen f deny

and affny w ay a e n ang e fe f

ean w e d we f e N Aan.T e exen a key nenana nn,

ndng e UN Sey Cn ae efed

and exanded, qen w ake n geae

gnfane. If Baz, S Afa, and Inda

bee ebe f e Sey Cn ve

e nex deade, e ean ae a gba,

en deny ay be vey ng. Wee

aen n, e debae ve e ef

f gba gvenane key be ayed , n

age eae, n e Aan, w S

Afa, Baz, and ea Ngea a key advae

f ange.

5 F a dn f ee dega ange and egea and ge-en neqene, ee Jak Gdne, “Te New Pan Bb: Te F Megaenda W ange e Wd,” Foreign Affairs, Jan./Feb. .

The Atlantic and the Global South

3



Southr Atlticism


Religion may

be a declining

presence in the

public space in

the Atlantic north

it is a dynamic

element in the

future of the

Atlantic south.

Td, e f e key a fe affeng eaeg envnen ae nned n

e , a , f e T f Cane.

Regn an an a f e e.

Ca ean a en a and a

fe n e Aan . Ia an exandng

egn n Sb-Saaan Afa and Lan Aea,

and a dyna fe n nana and egna

. In We Afa, e aen f Ia

a bee a eadng e n e aby

and ey f e egn—and a e f

Aean and Eean ey nen. A

e Aan ae, newe evangea e aeakng gnfan nad n e ean f e

adna e. Tee end ae nfenng

ee and e Aan n enay

fnd way. Tey ae eang new e n a

n- and anaan ba. Regn ay

be a denng eene n e b ae n e

Aan n; a dyna eeen n e fe

f e Aan .

F, e Aan d e f e key

e f e evn f en and a

de. Venezea and Agenna ave ed eage agan e “Wangn Cnen”

and 99-ea an ab e effay f

en and a ef. In a e daa

b agaby e eave ene, Baz ffe

ane, ef- de a d e

Wangn Cnen a a eng. In key

ee and e Aan, ndng

S Afa, ave bee a

wef fe ang exena a we a nenae. Te gba en a a a

f n ae eef. Tee ae nw few ae

wee e ge f bea en ef

weeaedy ebaed. Ye e deveena

aenge ean ak. F a dyna,

Baz aged by kng ne dae.

Te anda fae aeve a bee

dbn f wea n e enegy ae f

We Afa we knwn. Le we-endwed

ne n We Afa ffe e f e ge

deveena aenge.

Deazan n e bade ene a a

been ne f e defnng end n b de f

e Aan , aned by e ann f

aaed n S Afa, and e ef f

van e n Agenna and Baz. T e

exen a deay n nne a an

bjeve n anaan aegy, e f e key

e e—and key fe e—w be fnd

n e Aan . Ye e aee f e Aan

ae f We Afa and S Aea f

y agenda ade n e N weang n,

wee e Aean f n ne-eand deay n, Ee’ wn band

f ndnay baed n anaeny and e f

aw. By an, Cna aea a a eavey

ndeandng en and a ane—a

ea f nw. Inda and Maaya, gwng a n

e S Aan n e wn g, eeay n

e enegy e, ae ay agfwad and

e ndna ane.




Baz a fen been ayed a e eennany f e fe. Many anay ae nw

wng be a Baz’ en a aved. If

een GDP gw ae f and 5-6 een

ae aned, Baz e bee ne f e

wd’ fve bgge ene by e dde f e

eny.6 W a an f e 9 n, a

gwng dde a, and e gada aean

f adnay kng ne dae, e

ny ay fnay be e f a e abe and

ab e. Wee ee aeveen

wee ade be by e en gvenen f

Inan La da Sva, e e f ef n ae by edee, Fenand Henqe

Cad, e a deade a aked a fnd

f f e nfan-dden b and b

exeene f e a. Pve deveen

abnd, f e nned e f Ebae,

a eadng aeae any, e een

dvey f va new ffe and ga eeve.

Te ny’ n a a eadng aga

de a been enfed by e e n gba

deand f bfe—a e f nvey n

wn g.7 R de Jane w e e

Oy n 6; a yb aeveen,ea, b ne a w e e ny’

nfae and wae Bazan deny.

Te e f Baz a e ena anf

e e f Lan Aea, and neae e weg

f e S Aan n gba affa

and anaan y.

Te enegy denn eeay newy. Te

age new fnd ang Baz’ ng ane w

key ae e ny ang e eadng wd

de f and ga ve e nex deade.

T w be anfave f e n f vew

6 See “Baz Take Off,” The Economist , Nv. 4-, 9.

7 See T Seange, Evaluating Biofuels: The Consequencesof Using Land to Make Fuels, Be F Pae See(Wangn, DC: Te Gean Maa Fnd f e UnedSae, Ma. 9).

f Baz’ nena deveen. I a aeady been anfave n e f e ny’

ef-nfdene and nenana een.

Tee enegy fnd w a gve e ny a

geae ake n ean w egna ne

n Lan Aea, w en ane a

e Aan n N and We Afa, and n e

ey f ae e f enegy ade.

F e eeve f a and en

deveen, and a a aan n e gba

eny, Baz ed ndae n

a S Aea’ eadng we. Beynd ebjeve f egna eade, a e neeng

en qen nen e fe den f

Baz’ vea exena y. F a f Baz’

adna wane wad e Uned Sae,

be a a e wef and nfden

Baz w eek enane aeg ean

w Wangn, angde a e ea

ane w Ee va Me. In

nex, Baz’ a eade n S Aan

affa ay ake n new eanng. I a kng

fa a e dane f Refe We Afa

e an e dane f Refe any n ne Bazan neand. Beynd an a

and a e, eve Bazan eade

ave een ean w Afan “negb,”

abve a, S Afa, a a key denn f e

ny’ fegn y, ndng nveen and

deveen nave.8 Baz a a ngandng

ee f da, ey, and deveen

dage w S Afa and e Lne

ne f Afa. In een yea, e S

Afa ave been a n a bade faewk f

aea ean w Inda, a eadng e n

8 Reen an n ee nde e Bazan-fndeddeveen f ean an n Bkn Fa, Ma, andCad, and a aaea an n Mzabqe. “Afa-Baz: Seadng Infene,” Africa Research Bulletin,Jn. 6-J. 5, 9.

Rising Powers

4

The large new

finds along Brazil’s

long coastline will

likely place the

country among

the leading world

producers of oil

and gas over the

next decade.



Southr Atlticism


e Gba S.9

A eany, a ng Bazw aqe new n, and ea e e

dff e, n exena y. An Aan

deny ay ffe ne way f enng a ea

e f ee eng dene and nee.

Te S Afan ae agaby e ab an

en an a a e. A e e, a

been ab e genea ndan f deay

and aby n -aaed S Afa. Te

exae f Zbabwe ffe a aay ende

f wa d ave aened f e ny’

we f and e e f enanad been anded dffeeny. Te eene f

en enn nde e ny, exaebaed

by gan f e egn, angde yad

ea an ey, ndee e ae

f e aenge—and e aen.

S Afa’ een y and eave ey

gve e ny ndeabe weg and ege

w Afan negb. N ngy,

Pea’ exena y a fed eavy

n ndang and exendng e ny’

n n egna affa, g SADC (Te

S Afan Deveen Cny) ande ean.

9 See C Aden and Ma Ann Vea, “Te NewDay f e S: S Afa, Baz, Inda andTaea,” Third World Quarterly, V. 6, N. 7, 5.

A n Baz, ee a ng S Afannee n aeng a en deny, angde

Inda, a an aenave e eabed Ween

de and e eay-dven av f

Cna. In gega e, aea

a fabe n f a ny w b

Aan and Indan Oean van, and ng

a e b ae. A e ae e, a

e nfden S Afa w ave en

and -ey nee (e.g., ae

ey) a ay ny be eed g e

ean w Wangn and Be.

Gwng Afan wane ab e anf a e evave Cnee e n e nnen

ay ay a e n e evva f Aan e a

a neweg and a aeg edge. I a

w eang a bean veen n We

and Sen Afa benefed exenvey f

e av f a eavey n Aan a n

e 97’ and 98’—Cba. F S Afa’

den a ee, and e n We Afa,

e Aan nnen dee, dvee, and

ey nked e exeene f a ange.

Tanang egay n a den aen f

wde Aan deny and ean key ve aengng.




Oe a n e Aan ae ay a eek enane e ey and ey, a we a

e aeg weg, by eaeng e Aan

deny and anaan nnen. In e

ae, ay be dne a a een an

aenave e egna and a dene.

Tee e ena f n Mex, a

ny w ngandng e n Ee and, f

e, w e Uned Sae and Canada. T

d aae e Mexan ea n Paf

R deny ve e a deade. Te ne f

Fanne and Lne We Afa w fae

a e n baanng e e negb,adna Eean ane, N Aea, and

a ng Baz—n enn an eve e ave

Cna and Inda. Te de, Aan van

ay aqe new vae agan a bakd f

angng en ndn and dvee ey

aenge. Te aeg envnen n e

Aan neangy -a, and e ea

f new geee n exena y d be e

de f e day f any ne.

M a eadng exae f ea f

new geee and e eaen f edene. Raba a ed a n f ea

ege and egay n e M wd,

angde Aab, Bebe, and Medeanean

dene. Te ny a e Ee,

eeay Fane, San, and Pga, and a been

ang e eadng Aean and EU ane n

N Afa and e Mdde Ea. Ove e a

few yea, e Man gvenen and eadng

Man nn ave ved eae e

ny’ Aan deny. Me eey, Raba

a g a wde Aan engageen a

nde We Afan negb, Baz, Ee,and N Aea. In en e, e

aegy ake an f e fa a Baz a

bee ne f M’ eadng ex ake,

nay f ae. A Baz eege a a

gnfan enegy de, key fe

enfe baea e.

In a and ey e, M a aake n a dvee e f aeg ane

baane egna negb, anage annana

k eanang f e , and benef f

eabed Eaan ey e. In

e aa e, Caabana a bee a

eadng an n f a ave and f

Afa a a we. Te Tange-Med nane

an geay faae an beween e

Medeanean and e Aan ban, n

and , eeay f nked e en

f e ed an-Mageb gway. Te

neea and y debae ab e newAan, w a ng en denn, wa

gged a a aj nfeene ed a Ska

n e Man Aan a n May 9. Te

gaeng wa ny -nnena n degn

and aan, and ebea f a gwng

aenn deny, gegay, and “vaabe

geee” n exena y ang e ed

we f e Aan ae.

Mex, , w ave e ake egadng

e exena enan f e ny. F a

e ng f e N Aean FeeTade Ageeen (NAFTA), N Aea

ean a a ane, and n an na

enan f Mex. Dee a f vey

ea a aenge, e Mexan eny

a nned gw a a gnfan ae, and

w eady an gw, Mex key

bee a e an nenana a

n wn g ve e nex deade. In een

yea, Mex a deved aa aenn

a and en ane n e Paf.

Inean w e negbng “ae” f

Cafna a been a key fae f aegy.B Mex a a ngandng Aan

nnen and nee, ndng e

See “Te Ska Pea,” ed n e an f e fF f an Aan T-Cnnena Inave, Ska(M), May 3, 9.

New Geometries

5

The strategic

environment in

the south Atlantic

is increasingly

multi-polar, and

the search for

new geometries

in external policy

could be the order

of the day for

many countries.



Southr Atlticism


and neay ea nk San. Te exen a Mex bee a e nen

aye n e nenana ene, e ny ay

aqe a nge ake n Aan deny and

anaan aege. Angde Baz, Agenna,

and e w eng egna nee,

engageen n e Aan, w be enaged e exen a Eaan nn an ffe

a eevan and e baaned agenda. Anweng

e qen f “wa n f ” w be a e

nen f way, wde Aan ane.




Beynd qen f deny and gegay, eeegene f a wde Aan w be dven

by a angng fnna agenda, -ng

e ey aaed w deveen n e

e af f e Aan ae. Te a deade

ave een a eady en f a, ey,

and en e neay naned wn

adna egna bndae. I e and e

ef d aby and ey n naw

Eean, Mdde Eaen, Afan, Aan

e. M f e key aenge ae n j

annana b anegna n aae. Many

a a adna nena and exenay ne. Mgan and ea ae exea f

e w a ng “ne-e” aae, b

e n d f a wde aay f nen, f

eenan y ne-e.

T eay e n e Aan ae, n

and . Se f e nen

nen n anegna, ne-e

agenda ae nenaed n e en ban

f e Aan, and w eqe wde Aan

aege n ene.

We Afa and Baz ae a e ene f ef e key ange n e enegy ey ene.

Ngea and Anga ave eeged a an

and ga de, and e ene Gf f Gnea

egn, ndng ee ne ae

de a Caen and Gabn, ae e

ay a age e n e enegy ey a f

e Uned Sae and Ee. Dee be

f aby and ey, ee de k

I a gaef Abaa Lwena f e Paf Cnand e Unvey f Sen Cafna f e e f e

e “ne-e” debe ee aenge nenaeda e eve f e and egn, b w eena nenanankage.

I eaed a Afa d gy 8 een f gba eeve, and nw an f ea een f wddn. Te U.S. gy 5 een f fWe Afa, nay f Ngea, we dn eeay we ed Aean efnng need. Anga aa aj e e Aean ake.

ke a gd be f e n f vew f nveand ne. Tey ae agey deed f

e a dyna dvng dn den

wn OPEC, and naed f aeg k

n e Gf. We ady bne fendy n

e nvenna ene (edabe e f aw,

eaned beaae, e.) ey ae agey

fee f e veegny-dven nan n e

ave f nenana ane n n

Venezea, Agea, and eewee. Even a

ae a Sa Te and Pne d e

ena f gnfan ffe dn,

e aj nenana ake.

Te e f Baz a a gba enegy aye w a

be anfave. Te een dvee

n Baz’ ffe wae ae e ny’

ven eeve a and 4 bn bae, and

any exe egad new fnd a key. A ee

ee ae deveed (a dee wae, engy-

nenve ndeakng by Peba and a de

f nenana ane), ey d Baz

ang e en gba enegy de, n

a a w Ngea and Venezea.3 Baz a

and bee a aj de f ga and agwng exe f efned ee d.

New qefed naa ga (LNG) ex f

Baz and eewee and e Aan ban w

nbe e geve “dzan” f

ga ade—a key end ang e gba enegy

e—and gve Aan ane an even geae

ake n ae ey a a nen f

enegy ey. Offe and ga exan

ndeway n e wae ndng e

Fakand Iand (and ng new da

fn beween Ban and Agenna). Taken

gee, ee deveen ae key akee wde Aan e ena Eean and

3 F a dn f e a f enegy fnd n Baz’nenana n and e ae f e Bazan e,ee Jan de On, “Baz’ Bg Men,” Foreign Affairs,Nv./De. 8.

The New Functional Agenda

6



Southr Atlticism


N Aean enegy nee. Mdde Eaenand Ran enegy dn nkey be

ddged f n f ay n e

nea e, b ve e nex deade, e

Aan (angde ae and ga dn

n e Uned Sae and Canada) ay ffe ea

en Eaa a a ene f gavy f

enegy ey.

Te Aan f e T f Cane w

ave dnve ey dyna, and ffe

ea aenge f Eaan ey

ane. Fnaey, and nke e Aa-Pafegn e Mdde Ea, e Aan

ak anang e fan eaenng

gba aby. Fn abnd, f bed

U.S. ean w Cba and Venezea, e

ee ky ean ang negb n

Cena and S Aea. A e Aan,

e Ween Saaa de a bedeved ean

beween M and Agea. F e a,

weve, ae--ae nf ave n been a

key feae f e aeg envnen n e

wde Aan ne e end f e Fakand Wa.

T ak f nvenna nf a vefeae, f e, b a a ean a degee

f agnazan n aeg e. Tee ave

been few nenve e wde da and

ey aangeen, and e “aee”

adde e f b-ae and nn-adna

ey aenge affeng e en ban and

ae aae.

Te S Aan a agey fee f e nea

and e fean dyna dvng ey

een and e n e eng. Indeed,

e egn nan ee ne—S Afa,Baz, and Agenna—a ed a da-

e nea ga. In ena e, ee

ne w ean nea-nea we. T

d ake n new eanng agan a bakd

f evved nee n nea we wdwde,

and e ena f new nea aed ae

eegng n e egn. I nkey a Baz wd e g nea a a f

dve f geae aeg weg n e yea

aead, b fean dyna eewee d

nfene a. F e en, weve,

e ne f e S Aan a a zne fee f

nea wean ean a defnng aae

f ey day a e egn.

Ode e aena f nvenna nf and

en, ey be abnd. Many

f ee affe nena aby, b ave wde

an f Aan nee. Te Cabbeanand Nwe Afa ave been key vene f

age ae gan, b enay and

ay dven. F San, n aa, e e

f Maana and e Ween Saaa e

Canay Iand a been a aj nen, and a key

f f een EU veane and nedn

eff. Sey n N Afa a affeed

by ee gan fw f We Afa

Ee. N-S ean n b de

f e Aan w be a key e f e ena

f anagng an by n a need

ba. M e d be dne ndeandand e e en eaned f gan y

exeene n b de f e Aan.4

Te wde Aan a ng been a f f dg

affkng and nedn, w ae a

S and Cena Aea and e Cabbean,

and e Sa f Gbaa a key e n a gba

aenge, w e e fnane, an

affkng, and gba ea. Reen end ave

ngy enfed e e f e Aan ye

n e dg ade, w We Afa eegng a

a nen anen n f dg enf Aa and Lan Aea. T e exen a

new ey ane ae deveed and e

4 See Ian O. Lee, “Anxee w Bde: Te UnedSae, Ee, and Te Sen Negb,” International Spectator , Ma 5.

Unlike the Asia-

Pacific region

or the Middle

East, the south

Atlantic lacks

animating crises

or flashpoints

threatening globa

stability.




Aan ban, affkng n a denn wkey be a nea e f e agenda. Te aff

n g a w be ane eaed e gven e

e f e a a ade n feng naby

n b de f e Aan , abve a n

We Afa. F a f e Aan akede,

akng ee k anaen, and avdng

e eegene f zne f a, w be gdng

aeg nen.

Tea f knd affe e ey f

ndvda and egna ae, f and fe.

B e neang av f ganzed enewk f a knd and e Aan

a e e ye k f ey. One key

exae e eene f ay ageng e

ffe ndy n e Gf f Gnea. Pay

a a de be ang e Aan a

f Cena Aea and Baz. Ane eev

f k nen evvng e newk,

wee na-e n Lan Aea,

Ia exe n We Afa. Te ey

ea a ave been a e ene f anaan

aegy ne 9/ d n j eanae f an a

eng f e Mageb S Aa. Tewde Aan vey a f evvng

eqan. Te ex f k eanang f

We Afa a been ne f e key dve f

Aean aeg aenn Afa a a we,

ndng e evn f AFRICOM and a

ee f enaned ay ean ave

a e Sae and eewee. In Jne 6, e

NATO Rene Fe ed a aj jn exee

(Seadfa Jaga) n Cae Vede, and veane

and ey n e wae ff We Afa

a eadng f f NATO’ Jn Cand

eadqae n Lbn. Te Aan and f Cae Vede, Madea, and e Aze (ndng

e U.S. abae a Laje) an be aay ef

vene f new nana eff adde e

ex f nnvenna ey k affeng

e Aan f e T f Cane.

In e bade ene, e wde Aan a eene f evved nee n ae ey, f

new be wae nava aan n Lan Aea,

an-ay and an-ggng ean, e

n f fee and ne-e n aa

wae, and ey. Te ae ey

nen f N Aan we ae key be

fed wad a ndeabe exen n e

yea aead. Rng we a Baz and S

Afa w ee ae ey a a key aea f

av and ean. And ae ae, any

akng e aay ae e veegny ve

ea and a ae, w eqe e aane f e aabe egna and exa-egna a

ndeake ba veane and a ak.

A f key ave a ng envnena

denn. A f dn f e an f

ae ange n g ade and n d ean

beynd e e f ae. B ee an be

e db a f e y debae ab

ae ange and ean y ve e nex

deade w ay ef n e Aan wd,

and eeay n e Aan. Tee a ng

adn f nana gvenane and eean e Ana, and ne a S Afa

and Agenna w ave a de ake n e fe

f ee aangeen. Tey ae a key ave

e wn ex debae n ae y. Hee,

e aed a-eny eeve w

Baz, Inda, and e eadng a n

e Gba S ay be n enn w e

ng ake n envnena anageen n

e wn negbd.

Ove e ng e, ae ange d a

eae e geen f e Aan.Te enng f an e-fee, ay e-fee

nen e beween Aa and Eean

ake d ange ng aen

fe , edng eane n eSez Cana

and e aae e Medeanean. In a vey

dffeen ene, e nge Cae e f e Gf

The increasing

activism of

organized crime

networks of all

kinds around the

Atlantic south

also poses more

systemic risks for

security.



Southr Atlticism


e Aan aeady enjyng a evvaa a e f ay n e Indan Oean and e

Red Sea, and e nbe f vee age

an e Sez Cana.

Fnay, e fe f gba ade and deveen

y debae w be a e fe f any

Aan ee, and ve vea. Hee,

Baz key be e key aye. T e exen

a Baz aqe a nge ake n Aan

ane w Ee and e Uned Sae,

d ean a ge degee f nvegene n

adnay dvegen aae agabde, envnena and ab andad,

and a ange f adjen and ef qen.

Aenavey, Baz and S Afa ay fa e exy en aa, w b

ne adng a e aeve ane w

negb n b de f e Aan n defene

f deveng ny eeve. A a ean

n, Baz ay bee a e nen

vde f deveen aane n wn g.

Ceany, Baz’ n a a key adng ane

and nve w exe a ng nfene n e

deveen and ey f ae ne n

b de f e Aan. In , a n e aea,

e ea f S Aan agnazan ay be

dawng a e.




Wa e anaan neny f geaeaeg aenn e en Aan,

and ea f a new wde Aan aegy?

W w ead e debae and w w ave e

geae ake n e e? On e Eean

de, Pga and San ave been ave

n ng a Aan agenda f ea

a and ea ean. San gy

eeve a ea van n San-eakng

Lan Aea, and a ng been a eade n

EU y wad e egn. San en

e e aea ae aay we eabed,

and vbe n e bankng, enegy, andeenan e.

In ee, Pga “ne abve weg.”

Pgee-eakng an ae nenaed

and e Aan ban, and da, a,

and ea e Baz, Anga, and Cae

Vede ean vg. Meve, vey

a w-way ee. Mgan f ee

a f e fe Pgee ee a ade

Pga ang e faby -

a ne n Ee. Bazan nveen

a ng been a feae n e Pgee ene,and Angan nveen ang aea

n bankng, ea eae, and e e. Me

bady, nee n e Aan a a aeg

enan a away been vey n Pga,

even a e ny a been neangy

“Eeanzed” n y e. Pgee

eade k Be, f e, b fen w

a e nd Wangn and e wde N

Aean neny. Tee a ng an

denn engageen, n ea beae f

e age Pgee ny n N Aea.

T Pgee daa a an an dand en Aan denn, , a any

Pgee gan N Aea (and Baz)

e f e Aze Cae Vede. Say,

any Pgee ave fay e Anga

e ae n Afa. Tee nnen nne

exe a eanngf nfene n Lbn’ fegny een, and ee an a be fe n

Pga’ NATO and EU e.

Pga, and a ee exen, San, w be

naa eade w egad Eean nee

n wde Aan e and nave. B e

nee d be e wdey aed. Te gwng

e f Baz a an en ane f Ee

key de a age neny,

bdng n a ngandng aen f Eean

nveen n Lan Aea and Afa. Swed

f ave a ng y f nveen n Baz,and e Swed gvenen wa ang e

f ede aff n Bazan ag-d.

In We Afa, Fane a ng been a aj

akede, w an ave a and defene

engageen angde en e. In Ngea

and S Afa, e B nnen ean

ng. Angde e Uned Sae, Ban and

Fane ae aabe f jeng gnfan ay

we n e Aan f e eqa. T e

exen a We Afa and Baz age n

enegy ey e, Ee a a we key

aqe an neaed ake n deveen n eAan . Mveen wad e ey

ean w Aan ane g

NATO key ve e nvea. F

Geany, Pand, and e ne neangy

fed n adna n and nfned

bne n e ea and e aenge f a e

aeve Ra, e e f a aj new

ea e key be een a a

aeg dan.

On e N Aean de, nee n e

Aan and ndean f wdeAan aege key be dven by evea

fa. Tee w be a naa nee n Baz

and S Afa a eegng ake ang

dvee ea a. Baz, n aa,

ay be een a a ge-gw ny n a

ed—by aed—f w gw n

Southern Exposures, Southern

Interests7

Movement toward

closer security

cooperation with

south Atlantic

partners through

NATO is likely

to prove more

controversial.



Southr Atlticism


e deveed ene. Saeg neneae key ee e Afan and S Aean

ne f e S Aan a key e f

e beav f Cna (and Inda?) a gba

e, and ea a a eae f gea

en. A a gba we, e Uned Sae

w nne ay e aenn ey

k eanang f e Aan ban, and

f ee ae key be fnd f e T

f Cane, ndng e and nenana

e. F, and eng, eeen f

e Aean fegn y ee nened w

envgang anaan ean ay aqean nee n eang e dea f Aan

ebae a wde e f ne and e.

Te nn f a wde Aan d a be

a ng vee f deveng nge e

S Aea, ng a bea vene n

Aean y.

Tee w be a ng egna denn e

Aean nee n kng and e

Aan ban. T aeady an nnveadea ang a and en eade n

Ma. Cay, gay, and even ay,

Fda a bee e gaeway f nean

w Lan Aea, and eeay e e f

Aan S Aea. Mgan and ade nk

ae gvng e ene eaen Uned Sae a

e nned ake n deveen and

e Cabbean and Lan Aea, ndng Baz.

Tee nee an ake eeve fe a e eve

f e nana fegn y debae, ang e ne

f e Cafnan ake n Mex, ag

ady nevabe, a e ngandng fae deve a eenve aegy wad Mex

gge. Maj nane n e U.S. Aan

Ca ae naa akede n wde Aan

ean, a e P f L Angee a

aj akede n Aa-Paf ade. La and

egna nee f knd ay we ay a key

e n e wde Aan debae, eeay n e

abene f anang aeg nen a e eve

f g .

Culturally,

logistically, and

even politically,

Florida has

become the

gateway for

interaction with

Latin America,

and especially th

cities of Atlantic

South America.




Lkng aead, w a en yea e zn, be envn a ange f ena f e

wde Aan ae, w vayng an f

e anaan nee f e Uned Sae and

Ee. Se f ee aenave “fe” ay

be aed by e eanang f Wangn

Be. Oe w be dven by egna and

nana dyna ve w e adna

Aan we ay ave e eveage. Ove e

nex deade, e abe aenave nde:

Comprehensive Atlanticism. In ena,

e nee f adna and eegng weand e Aan ban, n and , agn

n way a faae e deveen f wde

Aan dene and aege. T ena

wd be enaged by U.S.-EU ageeen n

e dea a evved anaan ane

w benef f e gega edefnn.

Ideay, d nde ave e by NATO

and e EU enane e w key a and

e S Aan. Pga, San, and Fane

d dve ee nave a e a eve.

An Aean en e e

engageen w Lan Aea d be a n Aan d, and d gve fe

e eenve Aan. Abve a,

ena ee a nvegene f nee

beween n and n key e affeng

Aan ey and ey, f ade

and envnen, deveen and ey.

Advae wd age a a wde Aan

deny ffe ne a Baz and S

Afa a e aenave ey egna

and en van. Te e f a ng

Cna, w a gwng eene and e Aan

ban, d ndean f eenveAan a a ne e eeved wanng f

Eean and N Aean nfene.

T ena w fae e a

eden, n ea e need adae

e Aan’ wn ng we n nnay

eanngf way, f UN Sey Cnef new NATO ane nave. Me

ee, b w ndeng, e ena

f a new ey aee f e Aan

a a we, ea a SATO (S Aan

Teay Oganzan) n w Ee and N

Aea wd be ebe ang w e.

A a e wen NATO eang f ne

and ee ee en en,

ad agne a nen n fav f a

gnfan new gega exann f knd.5

A a and ed-zed ne f e

T f Cane fae a ange f dff an-nana ey be, ey ay we eek e

aeg eaane f e e NATO

f ebe; a f f bwed ey n

egn wee ey aee weak nn-

exen. Ee, , d be a e gnfan

ey ane f Lan Aean ne way

f Aean we.6 Lage, veegny n

we a Baz S Afa—eey

e a f geae ena e e aane—

ay be e ean new e f knd.

Alignment with the Global South. In ena,e aj a n e S Aan f

agnen w aenave, nn-Ween a,

ndng Inda. Te nfyng deny n ae

ny a f e deveng S. Baz

and S Afa ave aeady aded f

e vabay and aeg k aaed

w aa, e f bwed f

5 Te nn f a gba NATO, en ke-ndeddeae de e adna Eean and NAan ae a been wdey debaed. F an anay n ven, ee Iv Daade and Jae Gdgee, “Gba NATO,”

Foreign Affairs, V. 85, N. 5, Se./O.6. Te agenee e eave n day’ ae f ae nAfganan, nfn ve e fe e f e aane, andgba dffeene de e ey ea, n ade, aeand e ae.

6 See Afed G. A. Vaada, “Neee e Dffe d’neCean de See e Defene ene ’Ee e ’AeqeLane,” Occasional Paper , N. 73 (Pa: Eean UnnIne f Sey Sde, Nv. 8).

Some Alternative Scenarios

8



Southr Atlticism


e nn-agned veen. Venezea a beena eadng nen f wdvew, ndng

e van f en, a, and ey

e w Ra and Ian. Agenna a a

fed w an-Ween , a ea n e

en aena.

I nkey a e eadng a n e

Aan w ad a e f e knd ed

by Hg Cavez. B a n wad e den

and an-Ween e n Baz

S Afa ann be ded eney. New

en e and a en nabe d enage , ag e e key

deveen n ae wd be a en

nwad-kng, nana e. Unde ee

ndn, Baz and S Afa—va ae

n e f e nn f wde Aan

deny and aegy—wd key n any

fa new a f S-S ean

and nn bdng. Idega efeene,

and ea e n aae ae

and e e, d fav e deveen f

a bade denfan w e Gba S

ang key Aan ae. B ay bead anae n a need aegy.

Dee e ange bg by gbazan and

e gwng e f Cna and Inda n Afa and

S Aea, ne a Baz, Agenna,

and S Afa, angde ae a n e

egn, k Ee and N Aea a

key nenana ane. Te ng-e ba f

y nvegene beween, f exae, Mex

Agenna and Inda, weak. In ene,

gegay and y ae.

Atlantic Regionalism.A e key ena,ndeed ne a aeady ex n va f,

wd ee key a and e Aan ban

f e T f Cane ang egna

eade and ean w negb. T

ay ay n be nked a wde ene f

Aan deny nvegene f nee w

adna Aan a. Exae ang eene nde e S Afan Deveen

Cny (SADC) and Me n S

Aea. NAFTA, , d be ndeed a

gng f knd, ag aey debed a

an Aan nave per se.

Beynd fa egna e, e efeene

f egna deey bedded n e exena

y efeene f an Aan a.

Mex a eay ed f a N Aean

deny, and ee w Baz, Agenna,

and Venezea f eade n Lan Aea.Agaby, Baz nne eae we

and ena agey n e f nfene n S

Aea. On e Afan nnen, M a

gven y egna negan n dffeen

ee; kng ea and negb n e

Mageb, and kng a e Medeanean

Eean ane (nay, M a

a a ng nee n an Aan deny). A n

e ena, a n wad nana and

veegny-n e an wk agan

Aan egna. T endeny, n n, an be

gy deenden n gba en ndn.Regna fn an ede ean n

aa e, b SADC and Me ffe

gd exae f w egna negan an be

enaged n an neena fan.7

A vaan f ena wd ee e fe

evn f exng, ed eave

nave a e S Aan, ndng

e addeng ef fnna aenge.

Faewk f knd wee eabed n

966 n e f f e S Aan Mae

Aea Cdnan, and n 986 w e “Znef Peae and Cean n e S Aan.”

Dn n e ae ave addeed e

7 See Afed Vaada, Regional Integration: Lessons from Latin America (Wangn, DC: Te Gean Maa Fnd f eUned Sae, Feb. )

As in other

scenarios, a

turn toward

nationalistic

and sovereignty-

conscious

policies can work

against Atlantic

regionalism.




aenge aaed w e Bazan-Ngean-S Afan dg-affkng nex.8 S

Afa and Baz ave been e key a n ee

f, addeng e f de-neazan

and envnena and ae dnan,

ea and “ee ee” na.

8 Geg M, “S Afan-Lan Aean MaeCean: Twad a S Aan RIM Cny?,”Diplomats and Defenders Mnga N. 9, Jannebg,Feb. 997.

Baz, Ugay, and Agenna ave eaedn ATLASUR (Aan S) ganze jn

nava exee, e n S Afan wae. Te

ngandng nana aa eea

and gvenane n e Ana ffe ane key

exae. Oe an be fnd n e Cabbean. In

a ene, e aj Eaan nn, even

NATO, fa n aegy. Aan egna

an be egaded a e defa e n b de

f e eqa.



Southr Atlticism


Takng n an f ee aenave ena,e nex deade key ee e exene

f e Aan, w vayng dene and

ane n ay. A ene f df wn adna

anaan ane and nn a

aeady gven e a ea f new ne and

new aege. I a been fanabe n e

qae age a w e e f Aa and

e gbazan f e nenana agenda e

Aan n nge a aay ef fae f

ganzng aegy, eeay f e Uned Sae.

Te ee weg f en and ey ean

a e N Aan age agan vew.Me neeng f e vanage n f

anay, e dea a anaan ean ave

been a too narrowly. Lage ena ane n

e Aan, e eey, f e

T f Cane, ave y been ef f e

wde gea debae. Inenana nve

and enegy ea ay f n Baz and We

Afa, b e aeg a n b de f e

Aan a ye be nveed. A e ae e,

e yake and nn aned e

vae f e e w We and S Afa,

and S Aea, aey ae ee ean nan Aan fae. Te debae ve e fe f

anaan ean nne f a

exvey n e N Aan ax. New we

and new aenge and ne eanang

f e ae agey ff e NATO U.S.-

EU agenda. A a e, anaan ean

nne “fe n ny af ynde.” T

e exen a e e f Cna, and e BRIC

(Baz, Ra, Inda, and Cna) ne a a

b, ae qen ab e fe f We,

ay be even e ef exand e defnn

f Aan ane.

T w be eeay an n e f defnng e fe f Aean and Eean

ean w Baz and S Afa. B w

a be an n ang e fe f ean

w Agenna, Mex, e enegy dng

ae f We Afa, and ay a ae

ke M. A e ng we f e S

Aan deve new fegn y dene and

enan, and a ae ne eek new

geee n e nenana engageen, e

Aan deny and Aan nn d

be fn and ene. W e nabe exen,

e n e Afan and Lan Aean den fegn y f e eny a ade

Aan e fa n f deny and aegy.

Te abene f nee n Aan a an

anang dea a kng n e a

n e n.

Te nn a anaan ean ave

ndeabe naed enegy n e d

nf en debae ab w envgae

ean beween N Aea and Ee, a

we a N-S ean. If e Uned Sae

and Ee fa engage e n Aane, ee a vey ea k a key ane

w f aenave dene. Tee ae key

be faed n e f e gba , ey

nana eeve. Nee e key

e e ean w Wangn

Be n n aenge. Te e wd

be a fagened Aan ae n w a

ne f aban w be .

Atlanticism is a Moveable Feast

9

If the United

States and Europ

fail to engage the

south in Atlantic

terms, there is a

very real risk tha

key partners will

opt for alternativ

identities.




Ideay, e nex deade w ee e eegenef a eenve Aan n w dvee

a e Aan deny f. In eay,

nkey, n ea beae ae and

e ban ave e dene and nee—

ndng e nnena negbd—a

ae b wde and nawe an e Aan

fae. B e Aan an be gven geae

nene a a fa n f aegy and y,

eeay wee exena e ae n fx.

F, yake n b de f e Aan

need enk e ena a wen debange fe f anaan ean. Te eevan

ae de n a e T f Cane,

and f e fe vg and nen f

anaan ean w deve f aenge

and ne n e Aan, bady

defned. A anay gge, e f e

nen nen ve e nex deade,

f enegy an ey, f ade and

deveen e envnen, w ave e

ene f gavy n e , ae an e

n. Dega and a end w be

addna dve f a anaan fe eey baaned beween n and . T

e exen a ng we n e Aa-Paf

egn eaen e n f Ee and N

Aea ve e nex deade—an en qen—

negang e new, eegng we n e

Aan ae w be a naa ene.

Send, a a e f ne, ndng Pga,

San, and M, w ave a aave

advanage n nkng g and eenng

a wde Aan aegy. By ve f y,

angage and gegay, ee ne—angw Baz—an ay a eadng e n enagng

adna N Aan a and nn

k wad. Tee ne ae a e

ga nvene f ffa y annng

dn n e ng a adna

neea and beaa ne, b eevan

e wde Aan ae. T anag ee ayed by Fane and en Eean ae

n E-Medeanean aegy, by Geany n

y wad e ea.

Td, a NATO addee eng deand

f gba engageen, n e ne and, and

ee ef n e Eean ey

bne, n e e, y f e “e af”

f e Aan ae d be n e agenda.

T n neeay an agen f fa

enageen n e Aan eewee.

B NATO an and d nde deeenng dage and ean f e T

f Cane. M and Maana ae aeady

a f e g e ebe n

NATO’ Medeanean Dage. Te dage

d be a de f ea and aa

ey ean n e Aan. Indeed,

g ve e effeve n e abene f e

Aab-Iae enn a ave aged ey

ean n e Medeanean. Te ena

agenda f aban age, f an-ay

ean n e Gf f Gnea ae

veane, ea and ee, and envnenaey n g e Aan.

Te Nvebe Lbn NATO S w

be an exeen and gy yb ny

a a e debae ab aane aegy f e

Aan .

F, a wde nn f Aan an benef

f dedaed ene f anay and debae,

beynd e adna N Aean and

Eean vene. M’ Ska Inave

ne exae. I a be agne e

ffa v ey eff f knd baed nCae Vede e Aze. In eana e,

ee and ae a we aed f e nd f

new nana ae ean, ndng

new e f Laje a bae n e Aze. Ove

e nge e, new eff de adna

ey nn ay be neeay engage

Implications for Strategy and

Policy10

A small set

of countries,

including Portugal,

Spain, and

Morocco, will have

a comparative

advantage in

thinking through

and implementing

a wider Atlantic

strategy.



Southr Atlticism


ena Aan ane w e n neen ean w NATO—Venezea, Agenna,

by even Cba.

Fnay, e f a wde Aan, w

e Aan dene and a age e f

ane and e a ng-e aeg

bjeve. Me ab vaan w eqe

e anfan f bea ean,

ndng e Aean ean w

Venezea and Cba. T w n be eay,and ay n aen a a. In e nea e,

weve, w be an a e debae

and begn e e f engagng a ange f key

a, ndng Baz and S Afa, we

exena e ae n fxed, and wee an Aan

deny an ee egaey w nawe

egna abn and e dega f e

Gba S.



O f f

Washinton • Berlin • Bratislava • Paris

Brussels • Belrade • Ankara • Bucharest

www.gm.g

GMF Nato - South Atlantic

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