Gloream workshop, Paris 2006
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Transcript of Gloream workshop, Paris 2006
Gloream workshop, Paris 2006
Setting of an experimental forecast system for air quality at ECMWF in the framework of the GEMS project :
implementation and first results
Forêt(1),(2) G., Monge(2) J-.L., Menut(2) L., Vautard(3) R., Beekmann(1) M.
(1) Laboratoire Inter-universitaire des Systèmes Atmosphériques (LISA)(2) Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) (3) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE)
Context of this work
▪ 3D Chemical Transport Model are now used to assess air pollution from global to urban scales… nevertheless large uncertainties remains: external forcings : emissions, meteorology, chemical boundary conditions representation of dynamics : pollutants dispersion representations of chemical and physical mecanisms (gases and aerosols) numerical representation
▪ Great Potential for increasing CTM performances :
increasing number of teams working on AQ modelling increasing computing capacity multiplication of observations (satellites)
Synergetical approach via integrated projects : GEMS, PROMOTE
Gloream workshop, Paris 2006
A common will to ameliorate air quality modelling : The GEMS project
Purpose of GEMS (Global and regional Earth-system Monitoring using Satelliteand in-situ data) :
● Global Monitoring system for Greenhouse Gases (GHG)● Global Monitoring system for Reactive Gases (GRG)● Global Monitoring system for Aerosols (AER)● Regional Air-Quality Monitoring and Forecasting (RAQ)
Create a new European system for operationnal global monitoring of Atmospheric chemistry and to produce improved medium-range & short range air-chemistry forecasts.
GEMS sub-projects :
The GEMS RAQ sub project
▪ Provide, Evaluate NRT forecasts (gases and aerosols) at continental to regional scale, relying on global and regional assimilated fields
▪ Improve existing continental to regional scales air quality models, statistical post-treatment, and explore multi-model ensemble approaches
▪ Use of satellite information for air quality prognoses▪ Impact of the global change on regional air quality▪ European cooperation for data access, skill evaluation and forecasts comparisons▪ Evaluate health impact of air quality and produce dedicated products
Gloream workshop, Paris 2006
Objectives :
Several AQ model used for sensivity studies and cross-comparison exercices Recommandation for future RAQ modelling systems
Gloream workshop, Paris 2006
The CHIMERE-GEMS system (1/2)
Starting model version based on the operationnal PREV’AIR platform :(www.prevair.ineris.fr)
GFS/NCEPGlobal meteorological forecasts
MM5Regional meteorological
forecasts
CHIMERERegional CTM
Prognose hourly concentrations : gases (O3, NO2, CO, SO2…)
aerosols (Sulf, Nitrate,…)
EMEP emissions
USGS land use, land cover
LMDZ-INCA (gases)
GOCART (aerosols)
Large scale chemical forcing
from monthly climatology
● gaseous chemistry module● aerosols module● advection, turbulence● dry and wet deposition
http://euler.lmd.polytechnique.fr/chimere/
Gloream workshop, Paris 2006
The CHIMERE-GEMS system (2/2)
The CHIMERE-GEMS version :
Geographical GEMS domain [35°N-70°N; 15°E-35°W]Horizontal resolution 101x71 cells ; 0.5°x0.5°Vertical resolution 8 levels ; top at 500 hPa
New emission cadaster (from TNO; 6kmx6km over Europe) spring 2007Forecasted boundary chemical fields for gases (GRG) and aerosols (AER) june 2007
Meteorological forcing from Integrated forecasting System (ECMWF) Test over a summer period (2005) Installing an operationnal system at ECMWF
http://euler.lmd.polytechnique.fr/GEMSchimere
Impact of ECMWF meteorological forcing (1/6)
Simulation period : June/July/August 2005
Number of stations :~ 200 stations(urban+rural+peri-urban)
Skill scores of the forecasts for surface ozone daily peaks values (µg.m3)
Bias 3 2.3Cor 0.86 0.86Rms 17.3 17.1
Gloream workshop, Paris 2006
GFS IFS
Change of the meteorological forcing in the forecasting system
Global met. frcst GFS (NCEP) (1°x1°)
Regio. met. frcst MM5 (0.5°x0.5°)
Regio. Chem. rcstCHIMERE-GEMS
Global met. frcst IFS (ECMWF) (0.5°x0.5°)
Regional chem. frcstCHIMERE-GEMS
Gloream workshop, Paris 2006
bias rms
Impact of ECMWF meteorological forcing (2/6)
correlation
Example of ozone surface peaks time-series :
Gloream workshop, Paris 2006
Impact of ECMWF meteorological forcing (3/6)
Gloream workshop, Paris 2006
GFS meteorological forcing IFS meteorological forcing
[Number of simulated ozone peaks (> 180 µg.m-3) / number of observated peaks ] x 100
● blacks circles shows stations without peaks values above 180 µg.m-3
Impact of ECMWF meteorological forcing (4/6)
GFS meteorological forcing
GFS meteorological forcing
IFS meteorological forcing
IFS meteorological forcing
Number of forecasted but not observed peaks : False alert
Number of « well » forecasted peaks : correct alert
Gloream workshop, Paris 2006
Impact of ECMWF meteorological forcing (5/6)
Test ECMWF meteorological forcing for summer 2005 (6/6)
Exploratory analysis of differences between both meteorological forcings example of monthly mean differences maps (July 2005)
Gloream workshop, Paris 2006
2m Temperature (°C)Wind module (m/s)
Friction velocity (u*; cm/s) Relative humidity (%)[varIFS-varGFS]
Gloream workshop, Paris 2006
Devellopment of a new experimental forecast system based at ECMWF
Simulation period : July/August 2006
Number of stations :~ 200 stations(urban+rural+peri-urban)
Skill scores of the forecasts for daily peaks values (µg.m3)
Bias -1.1 -7.0Cor 0.89 0.89Rms 17.1 18.4
GFS IFS
What’s new ? New parallel version of CHIMERE is used The whole system is running remotely on ECMWF’s calculator (HPCD)
IFS (ECMWF) (0.5°x 0.5°)
CHIMERE-GEMS(parallel version)
120 h IFS forecast available
Timing (D-1) 6h30 pm (UT) (D-1) 9 pm (UT)
Beginning of the CHIMERE run on hpcd
(D-1) 9h45 pm (UT)
Chemical forecasts areAvailable (Day + 3)
Experimental forecast for summer 2006 at ECMWF
Gloream workshop, Paris 2006
Simulated surface ozone peaks for the 2006/07/26
NCEP/MM5/CHIMERE ECMWF/CHIMERE-GEMS
Gloream workshop, Paris 2006
Future works
Identifying main differences for the 2 differents meteorological forcings
increasing horizontal resolution of the model (parallel version)
Tests with the new TNO emission cadaster Sensivity tests to chemical boundary conditions forcings : differences between monthly global climatology and global chemical forecasts currently in test with LMDZ-INCA chemical forecasts
+ Implementation of the new model version : (spring 2007 ???) enhanced aerosol modules deep convection free-tropospheric version coupling with chimere-dust version better dust forcing …