GLOBEC FINAL SYMPOSIUM

Washington, D. C., 4 OCT 2011

Regional Perspectives in a Global Context Thomas M. (Zack) Powell, Univ. of Calif., Berkeley

A 1997 review...

and approx. 15 years later...

I. LARGELY VERY POSITIVE. E.g., commended:

a. “...wise...choice of Georges Bank...”b. ...integration “ ...of ‘two distinct

cultures’ -- biology & physics...”c. “effort to bring new

technology...” d. “...level of

communication...” & fair

planning process...”

“...making a significant contribution...”

II. CRITICAL (i.e., negative) REMARKS.

a. No “inhouse” chem./primary product. information

b. No theoretical studies...on ecosystem function, evolution under climate change

c. Neglect of intermittency

d. Disregard of level of uncertainty, esp., in models

e. Difficulties arising from two-agency collaboration

BUT...

We question, however, whether the depth of understanding gained in Georges Bank, or any of the

future GLOBEC ecosystems, will be adequate to “understand ecosystem dynamical processes [sufficiently

well] to be able to predict the response of the ocean ecosystem and the stability of the marine food web to

climate change”

We believe the achievement of such a grand goal in a few years is optimistic in even a single ecosystem such

as Georges Bank.

Goals...‘reasonably attainable’...?

“...urge GLOBEC leadership and sponsors to consider modification of its formal goals...”

Revisit linkages to basin/

global scale processesLARGE

small

?

1. NW Atlantic (C. Greene, A. Pershing, & collabs).

“Before”Mid ‘80s:

Transport into N. Atl. largely via

Fram Strait

“After”

ca. ’90:

Transport into N. Atl. via

Labrador Sea enhanced

Bolus of FW

reaches GOM,

MAB ca. ’91

1. NW Atlantic (C. Greene, A. Pershing,

& collabs).II. NE Pacific (E. Di Lorenzo et al.)

12

Di Lorenzo et al. 2008

13

550 - 599

29.1%EOF1:

250 - 299

10.8%EOF2:

16

1. NW Atlantic (C. Greene, A. Pershing,

& collabs).

II. NE Pacific (E. Di Lorenzo et al.)

A. NEP hypoxia (OSU teams)

III. S. Ocean (Dinnimann, Klinck, Smith)

“INIT”:

Modeled dye

dispersion of CDW

onto shelf

“INIT” +

18 mos.

Modeled dye

dispersion of CDW

onto shelf“FIN”:

Revisit linkages to basin/

global scale processesLARGE

small

?

1. NW Atlantic (C. Greene, A. Pershing,

& collabs).

II. NE Pacific (E. Di Lorenzo et al.)

A. NEP hypoxia (OSU teams)

III. S. Ocean (Dinnimann, Klinck, Smith)

IV. ModelsA. McGllicuddy,

CurchitserV. Future?

A. Models

NEMURO.FISH

70 years, JJAMean,DIFF

END