Globalizing localization of data-limited approaches for...
Transcript of Globalizing localization of data-limited approaches for...
Globalizing localization of data-limited approaches for sustainable resource
management NWFSC,
Seattle
Jason M. Cope
Collaborators: Jim Berkson, Jim Thorson, Chantel Wetzel,
SNAP working group on Data-limited Fisheries Management
2015 Lowell Wakefield Symposium:
Tools and Strategies for Assessment
and Management of Data-Limited
Fish Stocks
Common terms
Globalization: Large scale collaboration to
develop data-limited methods
Localization: Adaptation to and respect for
local conditions/needs
“Sustainable use” the objective?
See Natalie Dowling’s talk Friday morning!
See Kendra Karr’s talk after that!
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 2
Common terms
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 3
“Data”-limited methods
Data availability Resources
• Quantity
• Quality
• Coverage
• Temporal
• Spatial
• Time
• Funding
• Analysts
• # stocks
• Management
needs
Common terms
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 4
“Data”-limited methods
Data availability Resources
• Quantity
• Quality
• Coverage
• Temporal
• Spatial
• Time
• Funding
• Analysts
• # stocks
• Management
needs
Uncertainty
Common terms
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 5
“Data”-limited methods
Data availability Resources
• Quantity
• Quality
• Coverage
• Temporal
• Spatial
• Time
• Funding
• Analysts
• # stocks
• Management
needs
Uncertainty
Varies locally
Common terms
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 6
“Data”-limited methods
Data availability Resources
• Quantity
• Quality
• Coverage
• Temporal
• Spatial
• Time
• Funding
• Analysts
• # stocks
• Management
needs
Varies locally
Uncertainty
Localization Globalization
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 7
Globalization: Method development
• Creativity/Research
• Performance
• Improvement
Thorson et al. 2012
Scale Status Productivity
Removals Abundance
indices* Size & Age
compositions
M h A&G Mat. L-W Sel
Globalization: Basic Research
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 8
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 9
Globalization: Method development
• Life-history based
• Vulnerability/Risk
• Catch-only
• Length-based
• Model based
• MPA-based
• Performance relative to
operating model
• Based on performance
metrics; can be global
or local
• Yield, risk of overfishing,
stock status
• Findings:
• No one method “wins”.
• Data matters!
• Performance sensitive to
stock status, life history,
key assumptions.
Long-t
erm
yie
ld
Avg. B
iom
ass
/ B
MSY
DCAC DB-SRA S.A. Avg. C
Probability of overfishing Carruthers et al. 2014, Fish. Res.
Globalization: Simulation testing
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 10
Globalization: BASI testing
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 11
• Performance relative to
benchmark assessment (“best
available science”)
• Also uses performance
metrics.
• Used when aspects cannot be
simulated (e.g. expert
opinion) or want direct comps.
to current approaches
• Promotes common framework
development & testing.
• Can learn about both data-
limited & “rich” approaches.
Cope et al. 2015
Globalization: Using a common framework
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 12
NA SS
XSSS SRA
NA CC-SRA
SSS Borel’s Paradox Index?
Y
N
Stock status prior? B
io.
com
ps?
Y
N
Y
N
Y N
SSS: Simple Stock Synthesis
CC-SRA: Catch curve stock reduction analysis
XSSS: Extended Stock Synthesis
SRA: Stock reduction analysis
SS: Stock Synthesis (normal application)
Globalization: Improving inputs
Cope et al. 2015
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 13
M
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Hamel 2015
FMSY/M
Zhou et al. 2012 Thorson et al. 2012
SBMSY/SB0
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 14
Localization: Expert elicitation
Anna Chrysafi, U. Helsinki
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 15
Localization: Expert elicitation
Anna Chrysafi, U. Helsinki
• Accessible
• Easy submission
• Expert calibration
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 16
Localization: Expert elicitation
Anna Chrysafi, U. Helsinki
• Natural mortality
• Growth
• Selectivity
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 17
Localization: Accessibility & Specificity
• Method availability
• R resources
• GitHub
• Local application
• Management (e.g., harvest) control rules
• Broad application
• Multiple models
• Application to “data-rich” assessments
• Feedback to globalization
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 18
Localization: Accessibility
• Cross platform open source statistical software
• User-friendly graphical interface
• Sharing code via packages
• Code supports replication, standardization
• Don’t have to have constant internet connection
R
http://r-pkgs.had.co.nz/
http://cran.r-project.org/
http://www.rstudio.com/
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 19
Localization: Toolboxes
• http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/DLMtool/index.html
• Anyone with R can get it.
• Allows users to
• Add new stock types
• Add new methods
• Use OM to test new methods against other methods
• Can() and Cant() functions tells method availability
Other packages (Ex: http://www.flr-project.org/)
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 20
Localization: Accessibility
GitHub • Version control software
• Easily share code & examples
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 21
Localization: Application
• Input/Data types
• Static vs dynamic
• Baseline vs non-
baseline
• Effort vs catch
(management units)
Grouping methods
• Increases accessibility
• Direct data-collection
planning
Method organization
Localization: Harvest control rules (HCRs)
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 22
• Decision rule that modifies catch.
Can modify other measures.
• Makes methods operational
• Uses references points
• Incorporates uncertainty
• Oft needed connection between
D-L method and management
• May improve poorly performing
D-L method Dowling et al. 2008
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 23
Localization: Broad applications
• Multiple application
• Conduct DL methods
EVEN when complex
models available
• Broad application
feedbacks to
globalization
Globilization-localization interface
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 24
D-L
methods
Improve
inputs
Performance
testing
Application
Decision rules
(e.g., HCRs) • Method sharing
• Toolboxes (e.g. DLM)
“Localization f
eedback”
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 25
Summary • Data-limited approaches are
• Rapidly developing
• Showing promising results
• Increasingly & sorely needed
• DLM Globilization requires • Creativity to develop methods
• Performance testing
• Continued development via input improvement
• DLM Localization requires • Method availability
• Method organization
• Method application (via management control rules)
Broad application = Localized knowledge
transfer to global users
Take DLM tools across the
world • Computers more portable and
affordable
• Batteries are better
• Resource sharing quick & easy
When applying DL models: • Apply multiple methods
• Apply to “data-rich” models
• Make your DL method(s) available
• Make your results available
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 26
Recommendations