Growth of Tourism Modern tourism is a product of Globalisation.
Globalisation, Growth, ChinaOutline of presentation •China’s growth drivers: past & future ......
Transcript of Globalisation, Growth, ChinaOutline of presentation •China’s growth drivers: past & future ......
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Globalisation, Growth, China
Linda YuehUniversity of Oxford & London Business School
www.lindayueh.comTwitter @lindayueh
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Outline of presentation
• China’s growth drivers: past & future
• China’s integral role in international trade/global supply chains
• Global impact from China’s slowdown
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Real Average GDP Growth and Institutional Reform
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19791980
19811982
19831984
19851986
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19891990
19911992
19931994
19951996
19971998
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20052006
CRS
HRS
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"Open door" policy
WTO membershipBRS
Stock markets established
Company Law passed
Private property recognised
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Average income near “trap” level
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China’s impressive growth
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Growth drivers
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60-70% from capital/labour
30-40% TFP productivity
9.6% average
GDP growth
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50% adding capital
10-20% adding
workers
60-70% Factor
accumulation
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11-15% Human capital
8-15% Re-allocativeefficiency
16-17% Innovation
30-40% TFP
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Up to 2/3rd Imitation
6-13% Technology
16-17% Innovation
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Contributions to growth
Factor accumulation: 60-70%
• Capital accumulation: 50%
• Labour accumulation: 10-20%
Total Factor Productivity (TFP): 30-40%
• Human capital: 11-15%
• Factor re-allocation: 8-15%
• Innovation: 16-17% minus “imitation” = 6-13%
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Re-balancing challenges
(1) Increase reliance on own market, less on exports
(2) Raise consumption, reduce inefficient savings
(3) Grow private sector, reduce distortions from state-owned sector
(4) Increase innovation, as imitation limits reached
(5) Continued opening, include firms “going global”
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China’s role in international trade & global impact
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China rising
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Source: IMF
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China “going global”
Source: IMF.
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19821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
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Exports as share of GDP
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Singapore Hong KongSAR
Malaysia Thailand Korea,Republic of
Philippines Indonesia China India Japan Germany UnitedStates
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Trade as share of GDP
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Singapore Hong KongSAR
Malaysia Thailand Korea,Republic of
Philippines Indonesia China India Japan Germany UnitedStates
1990 1995 2000 2007
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intra-regional Rest of the world
Intra-regional/global supply chains
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Total exports of China to the rest of the world (US$1,000), 1980-2005
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Primary agricultural products Primary mineral products
Machinery & equipment Office machines, telecomm. equipment & electrical machinery
Clothing & apparel accessories, textiles, footwear Other manufactures
Source: UN.
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Total imports of China from the rest of the world (US$1,000), 1985-2005
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Agricultural raw materials Petroleum & gas
Metals and other minerals Office machines, telecomm. equipment & electrical machinery
Chemicals & related products Other manufactures
Source: UN.
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China consumes (% of world’s)
• 54% of aluminium, 50% of nickel, 48% of copper, 45% of steel
• 30% of rice
• 23% of gold
• 17% of wheat
• 12% of oil
• 6% of natural gas
Source: WEF.
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China’s global impact
• End of commodity super-cycle
• Slowdown & economic restructuring will affect exporters, including capital goods
• Slower income growth will also have impact on multinational companies from the West
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