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Global Youth FuturesGlobal Youth FuturesProjecting the Roles of:Projecting the Roles of: -Anticipatory Knowledge -Anticipatory Knowledge -Continuous Innovation -Continuous Innovation -Disruptive Technologies -Disruptive Technologies

Arthur HarkinsArthur Harkins

George KubikGeorge Kubik

John MoravecJohn Moravec

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Agenda: Global Youth FuturesAgenda: Global Youth Futures

OverviewOverview Anticipatory KnowledgeAnticipatory Knowledge Continuous InnovationContinuous Innovation Disruptive TechnologiesDisruptive Technologies

Word CaféWord Café

Group Secretary ReportsGroup Secretary Reports

Concluding ThoughtsConcluding Thoughts

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The Salon Method…The Salon Method…

Is inherently multicultural and multi-temporalIs inherently multicultural and multi-temporal

Is intended to evoke intrinsic anticipatory Is intended to evoke intrinsic anticipatory knowledgeknowledge

Is intended to make such knowledge explicit Is intended to make such knowledge explicit as social informationas social information

Allows collection of such social information for Allows collection of such social information for posting and further discussion on the posting and further discussion on the Education Futures Web blogEducation Futures Web blog

Requires a Salon Secretary at each tableRequires a Salon Secretary at each table

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Our preferred dynamic is Leapfrogging

Leapfrogging…

is goal-oriented means to get ahead of the competition or

the present state of the art through innovative, time-and-cost-saving means

is about “leaping” over hindrances or unnecessary “evolutionary” steps to achieve a goal

is a mindset, futures-focused and backcastable to the present

…ultimately is definable only by you

Some Words on ‘Leapfrogging…’Some Words on ‘Leapfrogging…’

Is a leadership necessityIs a leadership necessity

Saves precious timeSaves precious time

Builds institutional and Builds institutional and community prestigecommunity prestige

Allows for individual differentiationAllows for individual differentiation

Works best if everybody collaboratesWorks best if everybody collaborates

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#1 AnticipatoryKnowledge

Continuous

InnovationDisruptiveTechnology

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YOUTH FUTURES: YOUTH FUTURES: ANTICIPATORY ANTICIPATORY

KNOWLEDGE ROLESKNOWLEDGE ROLES

Arthur HarkinsArthur Harkins

University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota

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Preamble for historians and Preamble for historians and social realists…social realists…

A future can be located anywhere in virtual or A future can be located anywhere in virtual or clock time.clock time.

This means that no part of history or pre-history, This means that no part of history or pre-history, or ‘the’ present, is excluded from what we shall or ‘the’ present, is excluded from what we shall propose to bring youth into newly productive propose to bring youth into newly productive relationships with civic and work forces.relationships with civic and work forces.

Our approach is to link anticipatory knowledge Our approach is to link anticipatory knowledge and futuring processes to the creation of and futuring processes to the creation of alternative presents.alternative presents.

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First, what is knowledge?First, what is knowledge?

Knowledge is the result of thought processes that Knowledge is the result of thought processes that create meaning.create meaning.

Knowledge is built up from information, much of it Knowledge is built up from information, much of it tacit rather than explicit.tacit rather than explicit.

Knowledge reverts to information once it is made Knowledge reverts to information once it is made explicit by the originator and/or within a social explicit by the originator and/or within a social context.context.

Knowledge is developed continuously within Knowledge is developed continuously within healthy, involved people, including youth.healthy, involved people, including youth.

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Second, what is anticipatory Second, what is anticipatory knowledge?knowledge?

Anticipatory knowledge is the result of everyday Anticipatory knowledge is the result of everyday and professional/artistic thinking about “what and professional/artistic thinking about “what could be”.could be”.

Anticipatory knowledge is the major product of Anticipatory knowledge is the major product of anticipatory thinking.anticipatory thinking.

Anticipatory thinking is a survival mechanism.Anticipatory thinking is a survival mechanism. Anticipatory knowledge becomes new information Anticipatory knowledge becomes new information

once it is made explicit by the originator and/or once it is made explicit by the originator and/or within a social context.within a social context.

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Problems retaining and using Problems retaining and using anticipatory knowledgeanticipatory knowledge

Youth have a major problem with “locked up” Youth have a major problem with “locked up” anticipatory knowledge.anticipatory knowledge.

Most anticipatory knowledge is locked up inside Most anticipatory knowledge is locked up inside the minds of individuals, rendering it useless the minds of individuals, rendering it useless beyond the impact of the originating mind. It is beyond the impact of the originating mind. It is “only” implicit.“only” implicit.

Personal, social and cultural contexts must Personal, social and cultural contexts must support anticipatory knowledge if it is to become support anticipatory knowledge if it is to become explicit and transform to useable new explicit and transform to useable new information.information.7/31/20077/31/2007 1212©©

Comprehending the problem IComprehending the problem I

Our task is to help youth unlock their tacit Our task is to help youth unlock their tacit anticipatory knowledge and make it socially and anticipatory knowledge and make it socially and culturally available as information.culturally available as information.

To do this, our schools and youth services To do this, our schools and youth services institutions must allocate at least one-third of institutions must allocate at least one-third of their resources to promoting anticipatory thought.their resources to promoting anticipatory thought.

The other two-thirds of their resources must be The other two-thirds of their resources must be allocated to anticipatory practices.allocated to anticipatory practices.

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Leapfrogging the problem I Leapfrogging the problem I

These steps act to reorient schools and youth These steps act to reorient schools and youth service agencies from the present and past service agencies from the present and past toward alternative futures.toward alternative futures.

These changes permit These changes permit Leapfrog ForwardLeapfrog Forward, or , or actions that project, anticipate, and create actions that project, anticipate, and create detailed alternative futures.detailed alternative futures.

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Leapfrogging the problem IILeapfrogging the problem II

Such changes also permit Such changes also permit Leapfrog BackwardLeapfrog Backward, or , or actions that project, anticipate, and create actions that project, anticipate, and create alternative presentsalternative presents that are suitable contexts that are suitable contexts for selected youth futures.for selected youth futures.

If no suitable presents are available, they must be If no suitable presents are available, they must be anticipated, virtually created, and then anticipated, virtually created, and then concretized to make suitable contexts for concretized to make suitable contexts for selected youth futures.selected youth futures.

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Leapfrogging the problem IIILeapfrogging the problem III

Through Leapfrog Forward and Backward, Through Leapfrog Forward and Backward, alternative youth futures are placed in virtual alternative youth futures are placed in virtual time for the purpose of making them part of time for the purpose of making them part of selected, alternative presents, where concrete selected, alternative presents, where concrete actions can be undertaken.actions can be undertaken.

Leapfrog Forward and Leapfrog Backward, Leapfrog Forward and Leapfrog Backward, together with the creation of suitable alternative together with the creation of suitable alternative presents, suspends alternative futures from clock presents, suspends alternative futures from clock time, allowing them to become demystified new time, allowing them to become demystified new contexts for school and youth service agency contexts for school and youth service agency activities.activities.

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Leapfrogging the problem IVLeapfrogging the problem IV

Leapfrog Forward, Leapfrog Backward, and Leapfrog Forward, Leapfrog Backward, and alternative presents create: alternative presents create:

1.1. Options for youth to use their imaginations.Options for youth to use their imaginations.

2.2. Permission to use their ‘natural’ tendency to Permission to use their ‘natural’ tendency to create anticipatory knowledge.create anticipatory knowledge.

3.3. Opportunities for both of these to mine Opportunities for both of these to mine alternative futures to create new presents.alternative futures to create new presents.

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The bottom line IThe bottom line I The study of the future now produces the study, The study of the future now produces the study,

creation, and actualization of alternative creation, and actualization of alternative presents, a new product for futures research and presents, a new product for futures research and development.development.

1.1. Youth can now work imaginatively in real and virtual worlds Youth can now work imaginatively in real and virtual worlds without suffering the incapacity of adults to actualize without suffering the incapacity of adults to actualize futures and to suspend clock time for that purpose.futures and to suspend clock time for that purpose.

2.2. Youth are now free to use their imaginations, and to create Youth are now free to use their imaginations, and to create anticipatory knowledge beyond conventional social and anticipatory knowledge beyond conventional social and personal boundaries.personal boundaries.

3.3. Youth are now free to develop, explore, and disseminate Youth are now free to develop, explore, and disseminate explicit anticipatory knowledge.explicit anticipatory knowledge.

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The bottom line IIThe bottom line II

The civic and work forces now have millions of The civic and work forces now have millions of productive new members.productive new members.

Youth now have a seriously important new Youth now have a seriously important new complex of roles to play in forging new futures.complex of roles to play in forging new futures.

Schools now become interesting and worth their Schools now become interesting and worth their budgets. Youth service agencies set their sights budgets. Youth service agencies set their sights much higher.much higher.

Most adults now require reeducation and Most adults now require reeducation and retraining!retraining!7/31/20077/31/2007 1919©©

A reminder to conventional A reminder to conventional planners and literalists…planners and literalists…

No part of history or pre-history, or ‘the’ present, No part of history or pre-history, or ‘the’ present, is excluded from what we have proposed to bring is excluded from what we have proposed to bring youth into productive relationships with civic and youth into productive relationships with civic and work forces.work forces.

Schools and social service agencies can, if they Schools and social service agencies can, if they choose, make futuring the basic engine of their choose, make futuring the basic engine of their professional processes.professional processes.

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Anticipatory Knowledge

#2

Continuous

Innovation

DisruptiveTechnology

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InnovationInnovation Application of Application of newnew

ideas & knowledgeideas & knowledge

Creation of Creation of marketablemarketable value value

Shortest time to Shortest time to marketmarket

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Continuous Innovation SocietyContinuous Innovation Society(‘S-curve’ Society)(‘S-curve’ Society)

Constantly ‘emerging’Constantly ‘emerging’

Non-stop development Non-stop development & change& change

Continuous creation & Continuous creation & destruction destruction (markets, goods, services)(markets, goods, services)

On-going experimentationOn-going experimentation

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Exponential

‘S’ Curve

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Continuous Innovation SocietyContinuous Innovation SocietyInvolvesInvolves

Shifting emphasis on knowledgeShifting emphasis on knowledge• Knowing ‘What’ Knowing ‘What’ Knowing ‘How’ & ‘Why’ Knowing ‘How’ & ‘Why’• Memorizing Memorizing Creating /Applying Creating /Applying

Ideas & knowledge as resourcesIdeas & knowledge as resources• Infinite resourceInfinite resource• Unlimited varietyUnlimited variety• Everyone a resourceEveryone a resource

Rapid cycles of applicationRapid cycles of application• Creative construction & deconstructionCreative construction & deconstruction

(knowledge, ideas, markets, infrastructure…)(knowledge, ideas, markets, infrastructure…)7/31/20077/31/2007 ©© 24242424

Emerging Open Source Emerging Open Source InnovationInnovation

(Everyone Involved (Everyone Involved Global Global Youth)Youth)

Relatively new concept Relatively new concept (but not for youth)(but not for youth)• Nobody ownsNobody owns• Everyone usesEveryone uses• ‘‘Anyone’ can improveAnyone’ can improve

Collaboration economyCollaboration economy• ‘‘Prosumer’ involvement (growing youth market)Prosumer’ involvement (growing youth market)• Requires most creative & innovative individualsRequires most creative & innovative individuals• Shared global R&D (increasingly connected) Shared global R&D (increasingly connected)

Source of endless innovationSource of endless innovation

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What Does This Mean For What Does This Mean For Global Youth Futures?Global Youth Futures?

Opportunities for greaterOpportunities for greater

involvementinvolvement• increasing % of populationincreasing % of population• regardless of age, gender,regardless of age, gender,

previous preparationprevious preparation

Excellence redefinedExcellence redefined• Repetition replaced by Repetition replaced by unique unique

solutionssolutions• Reduced reliance on precedenceReduced reliance on precedence• Learning by memorization ineffectiveLearning by memorization ineffective• New basics : innovation, problem New basics : innovation, problem

solving, creativity, knowledge solving, creativity, knowledge creation…creation…7/31/20077/31/2007 ©© 2626

Global Youth OpportunitiesGlobal Youth Opportunities- - In Continuous Innovation Societies -In Continuous Innovation Societies -

Everyone a noviceEveryone a novice• Fast change Fast change continuous continuous

learninglearning• Assumption of capability based Assumption of capability based

on longevity disappearson longevity disappears

Fast accommodation of new ways Fast accommodation of new ways of doing of doing (= Performance support)(= Performance support)

Learning seamlessly merges into Learning seamlessly merges into work work (= Perform. Based Learning)(= Perform. Based Learning)

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Global Youth Futures:Global Youth Futures:Creating Conditions for Continuous Creating Conditions for Continuous

InnovationInnovation Learning: Learning:

• Based on knowledge creationBased on knowledge creation• Help ubiquitously embedded Help ubiquitously embedded

(virtual & physical environments)(virtual & physical environments)

KnowledgeKnowledge• Creation linked to application Creation linked to application

(always)(always)

Fusion of Fusion of learninglearning & & doingdoing• Collapse: WATCollapse: WATJATJATJITJITRT (PBL)RT (PBL)

Software support Software support • All levels of abilityAll levels of ability

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Continuous Innovation, PBL, Continuous Innovation, PBL, and Global Youth Futuresand Global Youth Futures

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Learning for performanceLearning for performance• Continuous learning = basis of innovationContinuous learning = basis of innovation• Perf. = measure & means of learningPerf. = measure & means of learning

Performance-based Learning (PBL)Performance-based Learning (PBL)• Learning by doingLearning by doing

(virtual space,’ simulation, perf. support, fail-soft exp.)(virtual space,’ simulation, perf. support, fail-soft exp.)• Assisted by human & software coaches Assisted by human & software coaches • Occurs at ‘Point of Performance’Occurs at ‘Point of Performance’

Classical learningClassical learning• Learning by lectureLearning by lecture

(brick & mortar ‘place’, sheltered students, fail-safe (brick & mortar ‘place’, sheltered students, fail-safe envts.)envts.)

• Human teachers, trailing-edge technologyHuman teachers, trailing-edge technology• Remote classroom (WAT education)Remote classroom (WAT education)

How Can This Be Accomplished?How Can This Be Accomplished?

On-demand wireless:On-demand wireless:

Wideband, high-speed Wideband, high-speed communicationscommunications

Networks Networks (BAN, LAN, WAN, GAN …)(BAN, LAN, WAN, GAN …)

People-amplifier devicesPeople-amplifier devices

Distributed competence Distributed competence softwaresoftware

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Guaranteed leading-edge

societal performance (now & future, everyone)

Elimination of youth performance divides (everywhere)

Continuously updated workforce (throughout global societies)

Instant competencies & competitiveness (among youth everywhere)

Youth cultures based on innov & performance (indiv-collective-societal)

Youth that are ‘Leap-frog’ ready!

Global Youth ParticipationGlobal Youth Participation- Expectations of Innovation Society - Expectations of Innovation Society

--

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Future DirectionsFuture Directions

Ever greater portions of the global youth Ever greater portions of the global youth population population empoweredempowered, , enabledenabled, ,

and and engagedengaged to innovate to innovate

and participate globally!and participate globally!

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AnticipatoryKnowledge

Continuous

Innovation#3

DisruptiveTechnologies

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DisruptiveJohn W. Moravec, Ph.D.

University of Minnesota

www.educationfutures.com

Technologies

Disruptive Technologies

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What are disruptive technologies?

• Disruptive innovations

• Contribute to shifts in paradigms of science, creativity, and culture

• Society considers youth to be key innovators and early adopters (not necessarily so, but…)

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Examples of disruptive technologies in education

• In the past…– Slate– Steam engine– Personal computer– iPod– Web 2.0– m-learning devices

www.educationfutures.com

• Looking ahead…

– Semantic Web– Social and

cultural software– General artificial

intelligence

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The big picture

1. Technological innovations are critical for national and global competitiveness

2. We (U.S. Americans) are ignorant of disruptive innovations in education

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Impacts on youth

• Challenges– Today’s PK-12 education environment shields youth from

innovations– Preference of sustaining technologies over disruptive

technologies in education– Youth are viewed as a group to market innovations to, rather

than co-create with

• Opportunities– Youth become empowered to innovate in non-formal

environments– Youth may construct new environments, meanings and cultures– Youth may construct viable alternative futures

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Learning from China

• Hand-held learning devices are used by youth…– to learn English– to transmit curricula from top-ranked teachers– to pass exams (“ethical cheating”)

• They think we’re using this stuff!

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Next: ‘Word’Next: ‘Word’ Cafe Cafe

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““Word Café”Word Café”

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1.1. Create contextCreate context

2.2. Explore important Explore important questionsquestions

3.3. Connect diverse Connect diverse perspectivesperspectives

4.4. Encourage participationEncourage participation

5.5. Listen & shareListen & share ©©

Critical Questions for this Salon: Critical Questions for this Salon: Global Youth FuturesGlobal Youth Futures

1. What if we do not adopt and integrate disruptive technologies into education – but the Chinese succeed in doing so?

2. Our institutions are lagging further behind and failing youth – what might we do to “future proof” our youth from obsolescence in favor of continuous innovation?

3. What are the positive and negative implications of “seeding” anticipatory knowledge throughout entire curricula?

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Group Secretary ReportsGroup Secretary Reports(Sharing Collective Conversations)(Sharing Collective Conversations)

DiscoveriesDiscoveries

ConsensusConsensus

DivergenceDivergence

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Concluding Remarks!Concluding Remarks!

What we learned about What we learned about ‘Global Youth Futures”‘Global Youth Futures”

Important issues for Important issues for the future(s)the future(s)

Other?Other?7/31/20077/31/2007 4444©©

Next StepsNext Steps Sign-up sheet with Sign-up sheet with

your e-mailyour e-mail

Results of “Word Café” Results of “Word Café” will be sent to allwill be sent to all

More discussion:More discussion:www.educationfutures.comwww.educationfutures.com

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Thank You!Thank You!

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