Global Weather Patterns - An Economic Assessment, July 2014

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Impact of Climate Change on Global Economy July 2014

description

Climate change has affected the global supply chains of various industries, including agriculture, manufacturing, oil & gas, and professional services, resulting in economic losses worth billions of dollars. This has called for adaptation, and mitigation policies and initiatives to sustain business operations and supply chains. In this report, The Smart Cube examines the impact of changing climatic conditions and the resultant erratic weather patterns on businesses across various industries.

Transcript of Global Weather Patterns - An Economic Assessment, July 2014

Page 1: Global Weather Patterns - An Economic Assessment, July 2014

Impact of Climate Change on Global Economy

July 2014

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Climate  change  has  affected  the  global  supply  chains  of  various  industries,  including  agriculture,  manufacturing,  oil  &  gas,  and  professional  services,  resul:ng  in  economic  losses  worth  billions  of  dollars.  This  has  called  for  adapta:on,  and  mi:ga:on  policies  and  ini:a:ves  to  sustain  business  opera:ons  and  supply  chains.  

Objective

In  this  report,  The  Smart  Cube  examines  the  impact  of  changing  clima:c  condi:ons  and  the  resultant  erra:c  weather  paAerns  on  businesses  across  various  industries.  

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Contents

§  Execu&ve  Summary  

§  Climate  Change  Overview  

§  Impact  on  Global  Economy  

§  Impact  on  Industries  

§  Impact  on  Companies  

§  Poten&al  Solu&ons  

§  Key  Ques&ons  to  Consider  

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EXECUTIVE  SUMMARY  

Several critical industries have been affected by extreme weather conditions during the last few years–insurance being the most impacted and professional services, the least

Low  

Low  

High  

Revenue  Loss  (2010–2013)   High  

In  2013  only  ,  natural  disasters  cost  insurers  $45  billion—24%  of  the  global  economic  loss  from  natural  

calami:es  

Key  Regions  Impacted  

North  America  

South  America  

Europe  

Asia  Pacific  

Middle  East  &  Africa  

Notes:    1)  The  list  of  industries  is  not  exhaus&ve    2)  This  quadrant  has  been  developed  based  on  TSC’s  understanding  of  the  industries  and  climate  change  assessment  

Impact  of  Climate  Change  on  Industries1,2  

Insurance  

Agriculture  Coffee  

ConstrucJon   Oil  and  Gas  

Manufacturing  

Travel  &  Tourism  

Professional  Services  

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Cause  §  Global  warming  caused  by  the  following:  

―  CO2  emissions  from  fossil  fuel  ―  Methane  emissions  from  animals,  

agriculture  ac&vi&es,  and  from  Arc&c  seabed  

―  Excessive  deforesta&on  ―  Increased  use  of  chemical  fer&lizers  on  

croplands  

Cause  –  Human  Ac&vi&es  

Climate  Change  

Effect  –  Natural  Disasters  

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Evidence,  Causes,  and  Effects  

Source:  NASA  (www.climate.nasa.gov);  Natural  Resources  Defence  Council  (NRDC);  American  Associa&on  for  the  Advancement  of  Science  (AAAS);  www.planetsave.com  

CLIMATE  CHANGE  

In the near future, frequency of extreme and erratic weather conditions will likely increase due to global warming

Effect  §  Increase  in  number  and  intensity  of  natural  

calami&es,  such  as  tropical  storms,  tornadoes,  floods,  droughts,  and  wildfires  

§  Extreme  weather  condi&ons  §  Massive  crop  failures  §  Ex&nc&on  of  species    

Evidence  

Rise  in  Sea  Level  

Rise  in  Global  Temperature  

Warming  Oceans  

Shrinking  Ice  Sheets  

Declining  Arc&c  Sea  Ice  

Glacial  Retreat  

Frequent  Extreme  Weather  Paaerns  

Ocean  Acidifica&on  

“Climate  change  is  a  fact.  And  when  our  children's  children  look  us  in  the  eye  and  ask  if  we  did  all  we  could  to  leave  them  a  safer,  more  stable  world,  with  new  sources  of  energy,  I  want  us  to  be  able  to  say  yes,  we  did.”  –  Barack  Obama,  President,  US  (January  2014)  

 

“It  is  clear  from  extensive  scien:fic  evidence  that  the  dominant  cause  behind  the  rapid  change  in  climate  over  the  past  half  century  is  human-­‐induced  increase  in  the  amount  of  atmospheric  GHGs.”  –  American  Meteorological  Society  (August  2012)  

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85  

180  

255  

40  80  

220  

58  

252  

435  

200   192  

2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013  

Global  Economic  Losses  from  Natural  Disasters  ($  billion,  2003–2013)  

Global  Economic  Losses  from  Natural  Disasters  –  by  Region  (2013)  

Global  Economic  Losses  in  Last  Decade  

100%  =  $192  billion  

10-­‐year  average  =  $200  billion  

The  Japan  earthquake  and  tsunami  inflicted  damages  worth  ~$210  billion,  which  made  2011  the  costliest  natural  disaster  year  on  record  

                 

In  2013,  Asia  and  North  America  

were  the  worst  hit  regions,  

accounOng  for  70%  of  the  

economic  losses  

Global  Economic  Losses  from  Natural  Disasters  –  by  Type  of  Disaster  (2013)  

100%  =  $192  billion  

Global  natural  disaster  losses  in  2013  were  4%  below  the  10-­‐year  average,  while  the  insured  losses  ($45  billion)  were  22%  below  the  10-­‐year  average  

of  $58  billion  

             

At  ~$22  billion,  the  floods  in  

Central  Europe  during  May–June  2013  were  the  most  damaging  natural  calamity  

in  the  year  

Source:  ‘Annual  Global  Climate  and  Catastrophe  Report  Impact  Forecas&ng  2013’,  Aon  Benfield  (2014)    

Asia  50%  

USA  15%  

North  America  (except  USA)  7%  

Europe  19%  

South  America  

6%  Oceania  

3%  Africa  1%  

2013  was  riddled  with  296  natural  disasters1,  causing  economic  losses  to  the  tune  of  $192  billion  

Global  Economic  Losses  in  2013  

Note:    1)  An  event  must  meet  at  least  one  of  the  following  criteria  to  be  classified  as  a  natural  disaster:  Economic  loss  of  $50  million,  insured  loss  of  $25  million,  10  fatali&es,  50  injured,  or  2,000  homes  damaged  

IMPACT  ON  GLOBAL  ECONOMY  

Economic losses is likely to increase significantly due to rising frequency of extreme/erratic climatic patterns

Flood  35.4%  

Tropical  Cyclone  19.0%  

Severe  Weather  15.1%  

Drought  14.6%  

Earthquake  10.2%  

Others  5.7%  

Source:  ‘Annual  Global  Climate  and  Catastrophe  Report  Impact  Forecas&ng  2013’,  Aon  Benfield  (2014)    

Source:  ‘Annual  Global  Climate  and  Catastrophe  Report  Impact  Forecas&ng  2013’,  Aon  Benfield  (2014)     Source:  ‘Annual  Global  Climate  and  Catastrophe  Report  Impact  Forecas&ng  2013’,  Aon  Benfield  (2014)    

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Readiness  vs.  Vulnerability  of  Various  Countries1  to  ClimaOc  Changes    

Source:  Notre  Dame  Global  Adapta&on  Index  (www.gain.org);  Environmental  Performance  Index  (www.epi.yale.edu)    

Countries with high vulnerability need to strengthen policies and ensure effective implementation to mitigate climate change impact

Low  

Low  

High  

Readiness  

Vulnerab

ility  

High  

Note:    1)  The  list  of  countries  is  not  exhaus&ve  

Countries  in  this  quadrant  typically  belong  to  Western  Asia  and  Eastern  Europe  

Countries  in  this  quadrant  are  typically  developing  countries  of  South  Asia,  Southeast  Asia,  and  Africa  

The  governments  have  taken  many  iniOaOves  to  tackle  climate  change;  however,  mulOple  gaps—such  as  informaOon  and  technological  gap,  policy  and  governance  gap,  and  insOtuOonal  and  coordinaOon  gap—at  various  levels  act  

as  barriers  

Countries  in  this  quadrant  typically  comprise    island  countries  of  the  Caribbean  

Countries  are  gradually  framing  and  updaOng  miOgaOon  and  adaptaOon  policies;  moreover,  the  private  sector  has  been  acOvely  parOcipaOng  in  an  

effort  to  improve  adaptability  to  changing  climate  

Despite  efforts  by  governments  to  strengthen  policy  frameworks  on  climate  change  adaptaOon  and  miOgaOon,  the  readiness  is  low  due  to  poor  

implementaOon  of  policies  

Countries  in  this  quadrant  are  typically  in  North  America  and  Europe,  including  some  developed  countries  from  Asia,  Africa,  

and  South  America  

The  governments  have  detailed  policies  and  frameworks  in  place  to  adapt  to  the  changing  climate;  further,  the  private  sector,  along  with  the  government,  

has  taken  numerous  iniOaOves  to  miOgate  the  impact  of  climate  change  

IMPACT  ON  GLOBAL  ECONOMY  

Sri  Lanka  

Vietnam  India  

Indonesia  South  Africa  

Fiji   Jamaica  

Dominican  Republic  

Iran  

Egypt  China  

Russia   Brazil  

US  UK  

France  

Source:  TSC  Analysis  

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Policies  and  IniOaOves  by  Various  Governments  

Source:  Notre  Dame  Global  Adapta&on  Index  (www.gain.org);  Government  of  Connec&cut;  www.chinadialogue.net    

Many governments have realized the increasing impact of climate change on their economies and have made efforts to counter this impact

Vulnerability   Readiness   Countries1   Policies  &  IniJaJves2  

Low   Low   China,  Iran,  Egypt,  Russia  

§  In  areas  in  China  where  there  is  a  water  shortage,  the  local  government  has  taken  ini&a&ves  to  explore  groundwater  sources  to  maintain  supply;  further,  migra&on  projects  have  been  introduced  in  provinces  that  have  become  uninhabitable  due  to  frequent  droughts  

§  To  reduce  high  temperatures  in  urban  Chinese  ci&es,  campaigns  have  been  launched  to  increase  green  space  and  improve  air  quality  

Low   High  

US,  UK,  France,  Switzerland,  Brazil,  Italy,  Australia  

§  In  order  to  abate  air  pollu&on,  Northeastern  and  Mid-­‐Atlan&c  states  have  a  joint  CO2  cap  and  trade  program—applicable  to  the  electricity  sector—that  is  enforced  by  individual  states’  environmental  protec&on  agency  

§  During  2010–2012,  various  provinces  in  Italy  carried  out  mul&ple  ini&a&ves,  such  as  training  ci&zens  and  enac&ng  laws,  to  mi&gate  human  impact  on  climate  change  

High   Low  India,  Sri  Lanka,  

Vietnam,  Indonesia  

§  In  2011,  Sri  Lanka  came  up  with  a  Na&onal  Climate  Change  Adapta&on  Strategy  that  provided  preven&ve  and  adapta&on  measures  against  climate  change  at  the  na&onal  level,  including  key  sectors  such  as  agriculture,  health,  and  fisheries  

§  India  launched  a  Na&onal  Ac&on  Plan  on  Climate  Change  in  2008  that  listed  ac&onable  objec&ves  for  climate  adapta&on  and  GHG  mi&ga&on  

High   High  

South  Africa,  Dominican  

Republic,  Fiji,  Jamaica  

§  South  Africa  has  developed  separate  adapta&on  strategies  for  its  water,  agriculture,  and  health  sectors,  as  these  are  the  key  sectors  through  which  climate  change  impacts  will  be  felt  the  most  by  the  people,  ecosystem,  and  economy  

§  Further,  the  country  has  developed  mi&ga&on  strategies  for  energy,  industry,  and  transport  sectors  

§  Similarly,  the  government  of  Fiji  in  its  2014  policy  on  climate  change  elaborated  the  poten&al  impact  of  climate  change  on  key  sectors—such  as  agriculture,  water,  health,  fisheries,  communica&ons,  and  transport—and  mi&ga&on  opportuni&es  

Note:    1)  The  list  of  countries  is  not  exhaus&ve    2)  An  illustra&ve  list  of  policies  and  ini&a&ves  have  only  been  provided    

MITIGATIVE  POLICIES  AND  INITIATIVES  

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Note:    1)  The  list  of  industries  is  not  exhaus&ve    2)  The  term  “Agriculture”  has  been  used  to  refer  to  produc&on  of  staple  crops  

IMPACT  ON  INDUSTRIES  

During 2010–2013, agriculture, oil & gas, and automobile have primarily faced the heat of extreme weather conditions

Key  Industries1,2  Affected  by  Extreme  Weather  During  2010–2013  

§  Agriculture  (Corn  and  Soybean)  

§  Coaon  

§  Ethanol  

§  Agriculture  (Corn  and  Soybean)  

§  Coffee  

§  Agriculture  (Wheat,  Maize,  and  Barley)  

§  Agriculture  (Wheat)  

§  Coaon    

§  Agriculture  

§  Coffee  

§  Tea  

§  Oil  &  Gas  

§  Fisheries  

§  Professional  and  Technical  Services  

§  Coffee  

§  Sugar  §  Chemical  

§  Computer  (Hardware)  

§  Automobile  

§  Coal  

§  Agriculture  

§  Tourism  

§  Travel  and  Tourism  

§  Pharmaceu&cal    

§  Oil  &  Gas  

§  Manufacturing  

§  Insurance   §  Oil  &  Gas  §  Agriculture  (Rice  and  

Sugarcane)  

§  Livestock  &  Fisheries  §  Agriculture  

§  Insurance  

§  Automobile  

§  Construc&on  

North  America   South  America   Europe   Asia  Pacific   Middle  East  &  Africa  

Drought  

Flood  

Tropical  Storm  

(Hurricane,  Cyclone,  etc.)  

Wildfire  

Tornado  

Extrem

e  Weather  Con

diJo

ns  

Regions  

§  Forestry  

§  Insurance  

§  Tourism  

§  Insurance  

§  Construc&on  

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10  Source:  The  Guardian;  USDA;  NOAA;  EIA;  Bloomberg;  Government  of  Illinois  (www.illinois.gov);  The  Wall  Street  Journal;  CNN;  Renewable  Fuels  Associa&on;  Human  Events  (www.humanevents.com)  

CASE  IN  POINT:  INDUSTRIES  

The 2012, US droughts indirectly affected the local ethanol industry, reducing production and exports by 5% and 40%, respectively

Direct  and  Indirect  Impact  On  Industries  

§  In  the  summer  of  2012,  the  US  suffered  one  of  its  worst  droughts  in  the  last  50  years;  the  drought  impacted  agriculture  and  livestock  across  the  country  ―  According  to  the  United  States  

Department  of  Agriculture  (USDA),  the  drought  affected  40  states  and  80%  of  the  overall  farmland  

―  Further,  according  to  USDA  figures,  in  July  2012,  the  country  witnessed  its  smallest  caale  inventory  since  1973  

§  In  the  US,  a  sizeable  share  (40%)  of  the  corn  harvest  goes  into  the  produc&on  of  ethanol,  a  major  biofuel  addi&ve  for  gasoline  due  to  the  US  government’s  mandate  of  blending  a  certain  amount  of  ethanol  into  gasoline,  to  reduce  par&culate  emissions  from  vehicles  

§  High  corn  prices  significantly  reduced  the  profitability  of  ethanol  producers  in  the  US,  forcing  them  to  pare  down  or  cease  produc&on  (~10  producers  ceased  opera&ons)  

§  In  2012,  the  US  exports  of  fuel  ethanol  reduced  ~40%  Y-­‐o-­‐Y,  from  28.5  million  barrels  in  2011  to  17.6  million  barrels  in  2012  

No  industry  is  immune  from  the  adverse  affects  of  climate  change;  some  industries  are  directly  impacted  such  as  agriculture  and  construcJon,  while  the  others  are  indirectly  

impacted  

Example  (Impact  of  US  Drought  in  2012)  

§  The  drought  severely  affected  corn  crops  ―  Corn  produc&on  in  2012  was  10.8  

billion  bushels,  13%  below  the  2011  produc&on  level  

―  The  drought  caused  corn  prices  to  surge  worldwide,  as  the  US  is  a  major  corn  exporter    

The  Extreme  Weather  Event     Direct  Impact  on  Corn  Crops   Indirect  Impact  on  Ethanol  Industry  

“I  cannot  see  any  profitability  in  this  (ethanol)  industry  un:l  we  get  lower  corn  prices,  and  it  is  going  to  take  a  reasonably  sized  US  crop.”  –  Chris  Hurt,  Agriculture  Economist,  Purdue  University  (February  2013)  

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Case  Example  1  –  Western  Digital:  Speedy  Recovery  Aeer  Thai  Flood  in  2011  (1/2)  

Source:  ‘Resilient  Response  and  Recovery  at  Western  Digital:  Aver  the  Thai  Flood’,  UCLA  Anderson  School  of  Management  (2013)    

Note:    1)  HDD  denotes  Hard  Disk  Drive  

CASE  IN  POINT:COMPANIES  

In 2011, Western Digital had to halt production in Thailand owing to flooding

Western  Digital  (WD)  in  Thailand  §  Headquartered  in  Irvine,  California,  Western  Digital  

Corpora&on  is  a  global  manufacturer  of  HDDs,  networking  equipment,  and  home  entertainment  products  

§  It  is  the  world’s  largest  manufacturer  of  HDDs;  in  2013,  it  had  a  market  share  of  ~45%  in  value  terms  

§  The  company  manufactures  ~60%  of  its  HDDs  in  two  facili&es  in  Thailand,  one  at  Bang  Pa-­‐in  (BPI)  Ayuthaya  Industrial  Estate  and  the  other  at  Navanakorn  Industrial  Park  

HDD1  Industry  in  Thailand  §  In  2010,  Thailand  was  the  second-­‐largest  

manufacturer  of  HDDs,  accoun&ng  for  40%  of  the  global  produc&on  

§  HDD  manufacturers  form  the  core  of  the  Thai  computer  hardware  industry,  which  includes  component  manufacturers,  assemblers,  and  other  related  industries  

Impact  on  HDD  Industry  &  Western  Digital  §  HDD  manufacturing  had  to  be  temporarily  pared  

down  as  the  opera&ons  of  most  HDD  component  suppliers  were  affected  by  the  flood;  as  a  result,  there  was  a  29%  (Q-­‐o-­‐Q)  decline  in  the  number  of  HDDs  produced  in  Thailand  in  Q1  2012  

§  As  the  supply  fell,  average  HDD  price  increased  from  $51  to  $66  in  the  same  quarter  

§  WD’s  produc&on  capacity  was  significantly  affected  during  Q4  2011,  as  flood  waters  breached  its  facili&es,  forcing  the  company  to  halt  produc&on  ―  The  company  shipped  28.5  million  HDDs  in  Q1  2012,  

about  half  the  number  of  drives  shipped  in  Q1  2011  

2011  Thailand  Floods  §  Thailand  is  prone  to  seasonal  floods  that  occur  in  

the  north  and  spread  down  the  Chao  Phraya  river—a  major  river  in  the  country—through  the  central  plains  

§  In  mid-­‐2011,  the  country  witnessed  its  worst  flooding  in  five  decades,  triggered  by  Tropical  Storm  Nock-­‐ten;  the  flood  disrupted  opera&ons  of  several  industries  in  Thailand,  especially  HDD  and  automobile  

§  The  World  Bank  es&mated  economic  damages  and  losses  worth  $50  billion  due  to  the  floods;  moreover,  the  floods  severely  disrupted  the  global  supply  chains  of  computer  and  automobile  industries  

CASE  OVERVIEW  

 

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12  Source:  ‘Resilient  Response  and  Recovery  at  Western  Digital:  Aver  the  Thai  Flood’,  UCLA  Anderson  School  of  Management  (2013);  ‘Western  Digital:  Flood  Response  &  Recovery’,  Thai-­‐American  Business  Magazine  (2012)  

Company recovered quickly due to well-executed contingency plans and strong supplier relationships

Lessons  Learnt  

Before  the  Flood    

             

§  Knowing  Thailand  to  be  flood-­‐prone,  WD  had  developed  a  Business  Con&nuity  Plan  (BCP)—in  addi&on  to  the  plans  developed  by  the  Thai  government  and  the  Bang  Pa-­‐in  Industrial  Estate—to  safeguard  its  employees  and  facili&es;  however,  the  plan  was  not  suitably  designed  for  a  flood  of  the  magnitude  experienced  in  2011  

§  WD's  dedicated  BCP  team  had  performed  the  following  tasks  in  order  to  mi&gate  the  impact  of  floods:  ―  Assessed  the  likelihood  of  the  flood  and  its  poten&al  impact  on  its  plants  and  suppliers  

―  Prepared  plants  to  stop  and  manage  floodwater  ―  Prepared  mi&ga&on  and  con&ngency  plans  to  shiv  produc&on  to  Malaysia  in  case  of  a  plant  shutdown  ―  Developed  communica&on  plans  with  all  employees,  suppliers,  and  other  units  across  the  organiza&on  

During  and  Aeer  the  Flood    

             

§  Despite  these  preven&ve  measures,  WD  was  unable  to  stop  floodwater  from  entering  its  facili&es;  as  a  result,  the  company  established  a  temporary  office  in  Bangkok  and  took  the  following  measures  to  minimize  the  impact  of  floods:  ―  Minimizing  Supply  Chain  DisrupOon:  To  reduce  the  impact  of  plant  shutdown  on  customers,  WD  decided  to  shiv  produc&on  from  

Thailand  to  Malaysia;  consequently,  WD  ramped  up  its  Malaysian  facili&es  to  full  capacity  with  the  help  of  suppliers  ―  Recovering  Submerged  Equipment:  To  reduce  recovery  &me,  WD  decided  to  retrieve  and  rebuild  submerged  equipment;  

consequently,  the  company  retrieved  and  repaired  its  cri&cal  equipment  with  the  help  of  suppliers  that  were  not  affected  by  the  flood  

§  Well-­‐executed  con&ngency  plans  and  strong  rela&onship  with  suppliers  helped  WD’s  BPI  facility  to  be  reopened  in  just  46  days  aver  its  closure,  weeks  ahead  of  internal  and  external  expecta&ons  

             

§  Aver  the  2011  floods,  WD  ins&tuted  addi&onal  measures  to  protect  its  plants  and  industrial  estates  ―  The  company  made  certain  opera&onal  changes,  such  as  opera&ng  manufacturing  plants  at  least  2.7  meters  above  the  ground  

level  and  keeping  lightweight  equipment  on  ground  floors;  in  addi&on,  WD  plans  to  construct  flood  walls  around  its  factories  

§  The  company  has  also  realized  the  importance  of  having  strong  supplier  rela&onships  and  has  taken  steps  to  strengthen  rela&onship  with  exis&ng  suppliers;  aver  the  2011  floods,  the  company  helped  its  suppliers  repair  and  renovate  their  factories  to  reinstate  manufacturing  opera&ons  

CASE  IN  POINT:COMPANIES  

Case  Example  1  –  Western  Digital:  Speedy  Recovery  Aeer  Thai  Flood  in  2011  (2/2)  

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Case  Example  2  –  Business  ConOnuity  at  Starbucks  (1/2)  

Source:  The  Guardian;  Kew  Royal  Botanical  Gardens  (www.kew.org)      

Arabica beans—used by Starbucks—face extinction by the end of century due to changing climatic conditions

Risk  of  Climate  Change  on  Starbucks  §  Starbucks  Corpora&on—the  largest  coffee  retailer—

sources  nearly  two-­‐thirds  of  its  coffee  from  small-­‐scale  producers  in  La&n  America,  Indonesia,  and  Africa  

§  Declining  produc&on  of  Arabica  beans  and  the  consequent  price  rise  threaten  to  restrict  the  availability  of  Arabica  beans,  which  will  reduce  the  purchasing  capacity  and  profit  margins  of  Starbucks  

Climate  Change  and  Coffee  Industry  §  La&n  America—the  largest  coffee-­‐producing  region—

has  witnessed  changing  climate  paaerns  over  the  last  decade;  this  has  intensified  droughts  and  plagues  in  the  region,  crea&ng  condi&ons  less  suitable  for  coffee  produc&on  

§  The  ongoing  drought  in  Brazil—the  largest  producer  of  Arabica  coffee  in  the  world—has  caused  uncertainty  over  produc&on  yield,  leading  to  a  significant  rise  in  coffee  prices  over  the  last  few  months  ―  Brazil's  Na&onal  Coffee  Council  es&mates  the  harvest  

to  be  10%  lower  than  the  previous  year    ―  Price  of  Arabica  beans  has  jumped  90%  in  2014  to  ~

$2.15/pound—the  highest  in  last  two  years  

§  The  coffee  leaf  rust  outbreak  across  Central  America  in  2013  reduced  yield  by  20–30%  Y-­‐o-­‐Y  in  2013–2014  

§  Another  coffee  rust  outbreak  in  Colombia  during  2008–2011  damaged  ~33%  of  the  country’s  coffee  plants  

§  According  to  a  2012  study  by  the  Royal  Botanical  Gardens—an  interna&onal  botanical  educa&on  and  research  ins&tu&on  in  the  UK—climate  change  could  lead  to  the  ex&nc&on  of  Arabica  coffee  before  the  end  of  this  century  

CASE  IN  POINT:COMPANIES  

CASE  OVERVIEW  

 

“If  we  sit  by  and  wait  un:l  the  impacts  of  climate  change  are  so  severe  that  is  affects  our  supply  chain,  then  that  puts  us  at  a  greater  risk.  From  a  business  perspec:ve,  we  really  need  to  address  this  now,  and  to  look  5,  10,  and  20  years  down  the  road.”  –  Jim  Hanna,  Sustainability  Director,  Starbucks  CorporaJon  (October  2011)  

“The  rise  in  global  temperature  is  of  great  concern  for  us  in  the  coffee  industry  because  it  will—and  has  already  started—pucng  the  supply  of  quality  coffee  at  great  risk.”  –  Dr.  Tim  Schilling,  ExecuJve  Director,  World  Coffee  Research  Program,  Texas  A&M  University  (March  2014)  

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Case  Example  2  –  Business  ConOnuity  at  Starbucks  (2/2)  

Source:  Company  Website;  ‘Starbucks  Global  Responsibility  Report:  Goals  and  Progress  2013’,  Starbucks  (2013);  The  Guardian    

Starbucks has taken several initiatives to ensure a robust supply of coffee in the short to long term

Business  ConJnuity    

             

§  The  company  has  taken  several  ini&a&ves  to  ensure  business  con&nuity,  including  the  development  of  sustainable  supply  chain,  detailed  sourcing  strategy,  and  diversifica&on  plan  

§  Sustainable  Supply  Chain:  To  improve  the  sustainability  of  its  supply  chain,  Starbucks  ac&vely  seeks  to  ethically  source  coffee,  tea,  and  cocoa,  and  support  farmer  communi&es  with  financial  aids;  in  addi&on,  Starbucks  directly  collaborates  with  coffee  farmers  and  suppliers  to  encourage  responsible  growing  prac&ces  and  improve  the  quality  and  size  of  harvests  

§  Sourcing  Strategy:  In  order  to  avoid  short-­‐  to  medium-­‐term  deficit  and  price  fluctua&ons,  the  company  buys  coffee  well  in  advance  (at  &mes  two  years  in  advance)  but  sets  the  price  later  ―  In  2014,  the  strategy  has  helped  Starbucks  to  par&ally  insulate  itself  from  the  price  rise  of  Arabica  beans;  by  April  2014,  

Starbucks  had  already  contracted  its  requirement  for  the  year,  and  also  40%  of  the  requirement  for  next  year  

§  DiversificaJon  Plan:  In  a  move  to  diversify  from  its  product  offering  (which  is  in-­‐store  coffee  sales),  the  company  acquired  Evolu&on  Fresh—a  California-­‐based  fruit  juice  company—in  November  2011;  with  the  acquisi&on,  Starbucks  indicated  its  inten&on  to  diversify  into  the  high-­‐growth  juice  and  health  food  markets  

CASE  IN  POINT:COMPANIES  

Steps  Taken  Through  Coffee  and  Farmer  Equity  PracJce  (C.A.F.E)  

§  Increase    economic,  social,  and  environmental  sustainability  in  the  specialty  coffee  industry,  including  conserva&on  of  biodiversity  

§  Encourage  Starbucks  suppliers  to  implement  C.A.F.E.  Prac&ces  through  economic  incen&ves  and  preferen&al  buying  status  

§  Purchase  a  majority  of  Starbucks  coffee  under  C.A.F.E.  Prac&ces  guidelines    by  2007  

§  Nego&ate  mutually  beneficial  long  term  contracts  with  suppliers  to  support  Starbucks  growth    

§  Promote  transparency  and  economic  fairness  within  the  coffee  supply  chain  

“Addressing  climate  change  is  a  big  priority  for  Starbucks.  We  believe  now  is  the  :me  to  increase  our  investments  in  solu:ons  and  strategies  that  address  this  crisis.  The  steps  we  are  taking  not  only  address  our  environmental  footprint,  but  also  help  ensure  the  supply  of  high-­‐quality  coffee  that  our  customers  expect  from  us  into  the  future.”  –  Starbucks’  Policy  to  Tackle  Climate  Change  

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15  Source:  Business  Insider;  The  Wall  Street  Journal;  PricewaterhouseCoopers;  American  City  Business  Journals    

Wal-Mart and Noble Energy’s business continuity plans helped them curb the impact of natural calamities on operations and, consequently, revenues

Company   Challenge   Impact  and  SoluJons  Adopted  

§  The  main  challenge  that  Noble  Energy—one  of  the  largest  oil  &  gas  operators  in  Colorado—faced  was  to  shut  down  its  oil  &  gas  wells  to  prevent  oil  spills  

§  Noble’s  early  disaster  response  and  efficiency  in  managing  emergency  opera&ons  helped  lower  the  damage  on  its  wells  and  storage  tanks  ―  As  part  of  its  con&ngency  plans,  the  company  remotely  

shut  down  its  wells  even  before  flood  warnings  were  issued;  further,  some  employees  were  rushed  to  certain  well  sites  to  physically  shut  them  off  

―  As  a  result,  the  company  was  able  to  minimize  equipment  damage  and  oil  spills,  and  mi&gate  the  monetary  impact  of  the  flood  

§  Moreover,  Noble’s  employees  were  involved  in  community  relief  opera&ons  

Disaster  

Colorado  Flooding    (2013)  

Wal-­‐Mart   §  During  the  storm,  the  company’s  stores  and  distribu&on  centers  were  affected  by  power  outages  

§  Its  main  challenge  was  to  transport  and  set  up  generators  to  get  its  stores  up  and  running  

§  Wal-­‐Mart’s  well-­‐established  rela&onships  with  mul&ple  state  governments  and  power  companies  helped  it  reopen  stores  very  quickly  ―  Many  states  relaxed  their  regula&ons  that  impose  weight  

limits  during  storms  on  cargoes  that  can  be  transported  using  highways  

―  Further,  the  company’s  coordina&on  with  power  companies  helped  it  make  apt  decisions  about  where  to  deploy  generators  

§  Wal-­‐Mart’s  Emergency  Opera&ons  Center—established  at  its  headquarters,  post  9/11,  to  tackle  exigencies—played  a  key  role  in  coordina&ng  recovery  opera&ons  

Hurricane  Sandy    (2012)  

Noble  Energy  

CASE  IN  POINT:COMPANIES  

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POTENTIAL  SOLUTIONS  

Governments and businesses should ensure effective implementation of policies and initiatives to mitigate the impact of climate change

Business  ConJnuity  Plans,  to  con&nue  opera&ons  in  case  of  

emergency  situa&ons  such  as  natural  disasters,  criminal  offences,  and  fire  

Sustainable  Supply  Chains,  by  reducing  environmental,  risk,  and  waste  costs  on  

organiza&on’s  supply  chain  DiversificaJon  Plans,  including  opera&onal  diversifica&on  (spreading  opera&ons  to  mul&ple  

geographies)  and  business  diversifica&on  (entering  new  markets  to  reduce  dependence  

on  a  single  industry)  

Industry-­‐level  Policies,  to  ensure  strict  adherence  to  industry  norms  by  

organiza&ons  opera&ng  within  those  industries  

InternaJonal  Partnerships,  to  ensure  efficient  u&liza&on  of  knowledge  and  development  of  collabora&ve  efforts  to  reduce  climate  change  

impact  

Community-­‐level  Partnerships  ,  to  impart  trainings  to  ensure  self-­‐sufficiency  and  sustenance  during  emergency  situa&ons,  

including  natural  disasters    

Research  &  Development,  to  con&nuously  innovate  and  develop  beaer  methods  to  adapt  to  the  

rapidly  changing  climate  

Renewable  Energy  Use,  that  helps  mi&gate  climate  change    

Ethical  Sourcing  PracJces,  by  responsibly  conduc&ng  sourcing  ac&vi&es  taking  into  considera&on  sustainability  and  social  welfare  

Reducing  Carbon  Footprint,  by  following  the  5R  Principle—Refuse,  

Reduce,  Reuse,  Repurpose,  and  Recycle  

Business  IniJaJves  

SoluOons  to  MiOgate  Impact  &  Adapt  to  Changing  Climate  

Government  Policies  &  IniJaJves  

Regulatory  IniJaJves,  by  framing  policies,  passing  laws  and  developing  standards  to  mi&gate  the  impact  of  

climate  change  

Source:  TSC  Analysis  

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KEY  QUESTIONS  TO  CONSIDER  

Your Checklist              

Below  is  a  list  of  queries  that  senior  execuOves,  decision  makers,  and  managers  globally  should  reflect  on  regarding  the  impact  of  natural  disasters  

(due  to  changing  weather  pakerns)  on  their  organizaOons’  supply  chain  

             

§  Do  you  operate  in  geographies  that  are  highly  vulnerable  to  climate  change?  §  Is  your  organizaJon’s  supply  chain  sustainable  in  case  of  a  natural  disaster,  such  as  flood,  cyclone,  or  

drought?  §  Do  you  have  a  mulJple  sourcing  strategy  in  place?  §  Have  you  established  a  business  conJnuity  plan  to  miJgate  the  impact  of  extreme  weather?  

§  What  are  the  various  steps  your  compeJtors  and  the  industry  are  taking  to  this  end?  §  Are  you  taking  the  necessary  steps  to  insulate  your  company  from  this  risk  in  the  long  term?  

             

Contact  us  to  learn  how  you  can  make  your  research  more  acOonable.    [email protected]    

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