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Global WarmingGlobal Warming

Science of global warmingScience of global warmingGreenhouse gasesGreenhouse gasesOther contributorsOther contributors

Observed changesObserved changesTemperatureTemperatureOther indicatorsOther indicators

The futureThe futureEmissionsEmissionsGlobal consequencesGlobal consequencesConsequences for CaliforniaConsequences for California

Mitigation EffortsMitigation EffortsGlobalGlobalStateState

What you can doWhat you can do

Helen Cox, PhDHelen Cox, PhDGeography DepartmentGeography Department

California State University, NorthridgeCalifornia State University, Northridge

The Greenhouse EffectThe Greenhouse Effect

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

Greenhouse GasesGreenhouse Gases

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), WGI Fourth Assessment Report 2007: Summary for Policymakers, Cambridge University Press. http://www.ipcc.ch

Greenhouse GasesGreenhouse Gases

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), WGI Fourth Assessment Report 2007: Summary for Policymakers, Cambridge University Press. http://www.ipcc.ch

Greenhouse GasesGreenhouse Gases

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), WGI Fourth Assessment Report 2007: Summary for Policymakers, Cambridge University Press. http://www.ipcc.ch

Relative Warming Effect of Different GRelative Warming Effect of Different G--H Gases over next 100 yearsH Gases over next 100 years

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), WGI Fourth Assessment Report 2007: Summary for Policymakers, Cambridge University Press (in press, 2007). http://www.ipcc.ch

Components of Components of RadiativeRadiative Forcing, 2005Forcing, 2005Components of Radiative Forcing, 2005

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Changes in Solar IrradianceChanges in Solar Irradiance

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and ResearchLean, 2003

Sulphur aerosols cool climate Sulphur aerosols cool climate directly and indirectlydirectly and indirectly

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

Estimated burden of sulphate aerosol, Estimated burden of sulphate aerosol, in 1990sin 1990s

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Source: Sato et al, GISS, NASAHadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

Cooling Effect of Volcanic AerosolsCooling Effect of Volcanic Aerosols

Sato et al., GISS, NASA

Climate change and the greenhouse effect © 2005, Met Office, Exeter, UK.

“As has been the case since the first IPCC Assessment Report in 1990, probably the greatest uncertainty in future projections of climate arises from clouds and their interactions with radiation.”

From: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change2001: Technical Summary of the Working Group I Report, CambridgeUniversity Press (2001)

CloudsCloudsContrails Across the Southeastern U.S. on January 29, 2004

University of Nebraska-LincolnHigh Plains Regional Climate Center

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Observed warmingObserved warming

Helen Cox, 2007

Observed Global Warming

Trenberth et al., 2007

Observed Global Warming

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

Observed Global Warming

Trenberth et al., 2007

Patterns of linear global temperature trends from 1979 to 2005 estimated at the surface, and for the troposphere from the surface to about 10 km altitude, from satellite records. Grey areas indicate incomplete data.

Evidence for global warming?Evidence for global warming?

The extent of the ice cover on Mt. Kilimanjaro decreased by 81% The extent of the ice cover on Mt. Kilimanjaro decreased by 81% between 1912 and 2000.between 1912 and 2000.

Schneider, Stephen, Overview of “Dangerous” Climate Change, Scientific Symposium on Stabilization of Greenhouse Gases, U.K. Met. Office, Feb. 2005.

Evidence for global warming?Evidence for global warming?

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Retreat of glaciers

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and ResearchOerlemans, 2005.

Evidence for global Evidence for global warming?warming?

The Larsen B ice shelf disintegrates, setting thousands of ice bergs adrift in the Weddell Sea in 2002.

720 billion tons of ice!

Decrease in Arctic Sea-Ice

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

Observed Changes in Sea Level, Temperature and N.H. Snow Cover

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), WGI Fourth Assessment Report 2007: Summary for Policymakers, Cambridge University press, 2007). http://www.ipcc.ch

The futureThe future

Helen Cox, 2007

Change in volcanic aerosol

Source: Sato et al, GISS, NASA

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4

3

2

1

0

Estimated cooling effect, W

m–2

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Global Averages of Surface Warming (relative to 1980-99)

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), WGI Fourth Assessment Report 2007: Summary for Policymakers, Cambridge University press, 2007). http://www.ipcc.ch

Predicted Climate Changes in California:Predicted Climate Changes in California:TemperatureTemperature

Cayan et al., 2006:CEC-500-2005-186-SF

Low range: 3.0oF – 5.4oFMedium range: 5.5oF – 7.8oFHigh range: 8.0oF – 10.4oF

Greater warming in summer than winter

Projected Changes in Temperature

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), WGI Fourth Assessment Report 2007: Summary for Policymakers, Cambridge University press, 2007). http://www.ipcc.ch

Arctic summer seaArctic summer sea--ice could disappear by 2080sice could disappear by 2080sunder IPCC High Emissions scenariounder IPCC High Emissions scenario

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

Projected Changes in Precipitation(for 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999)

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), WGI Fourth Assessment Report 2007: Summary for Policymakers, Cambridge University press, 2007). http://www.ipcc.ch

Solutions?Solutions?

Helen Cox, 2007

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Required reductions in CORequired reductions in CO22 concentrationsconcentrations

Website: http://www.ipcc.chWebsite: http://www.ipcc.chWebsite: http://www.ipcc.ch

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

Mitigation Efforts: Kyoto ProtocolMitigation Efforts: Kyoto Protocol

World Resources Institute, 2005

The Kyoto Protocol, an international agreement to reduce emissions of six greenhouse gases, came into effect on February 16, 2005.The protocol sets mandatory limits on greenhouse gas emissions for each of the party nations with the goal of reducing total globalemissions to 5.2% below their 1990 values by 2012.166 countries have now ratified the agreement – but not the U.S.

Helen Cox, 2007

Per Capita EmissionsPer Capita EmissionsWorld Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

tonn

es c

arbo

n di

oxid

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Data source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/environment.html Helen Cox, 2007

U.S. Emissions by GasU.S. Emissions by Gas

Source: http://epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/downloads/2007GHGFastFacts.pdf

U.S. Greenhouse gas emissions 1990 – 2005 broken down by gas type

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Helen Cox, 2007

U.S. Emissions by UseU.S. Emissions by Use

Source: http://epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/downloads/2007GHGFastFacts.pdf

U.S. Greenhouse gas emissions 1990 – 2005 broken down by sector

Helen Cox, 2007

Energy Sources for U.S.Energy Sources for U.S.

Data source: http://epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/usinventoryreport.html

Energy sources for U.S. in 2005

Mitigation Efforts: California AB32Mitigation Efforts: California AB32

California is the 12th largest emitter of carbon dioxide in the world

On June 1st, 2005 Governor Schwarzenegger signed Executive Order S-3-05, establishing Greenhouse gas targets for the State.

On September 27, 2006 Governor Schwarzenegger signed Assembly Bill 32, California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, authored by Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez (D-Los Angeles).

Mitigation Efforts: CaliforniaMitigation Efforts: California

•AB 32 requires that the statewide greenhouse gas emissions be cut to their 1990 levels by 2020. This will require a cut in emissions from the State’s largest emitters by about 25%.

•Beginning in 2008 the California Air Resources Board will require industry to report on their G-H gas emissions.

•Reductions will be continued to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050.

•In July, 2006 an agreement was signed between California and theUnited Kingdom to create an international partnership to fight against global warming.

•On Jan 18, 2007, a new Low Carbon Fuel Standard was introduced for transportation fuels. This requires fuel providers to reduce the carbon content of passenger vehicle fuels sold in California by 10% by the year 2020. Transportation accounts for 40% of California’s GHG emissions, and 96% of these fuels are petroleum based.

What you can doWhat you can doSupport and encourage local alternative energy projects.

In 2005 CSUN installed a 1 megawatt fuel cell power plant — the single largest fuel cell power plant at any university in the world. The power plant provides environmentally friendly power to the campus, and reduces the university’s CO2 emissions by 60 million pounds during its lifetime. The plant will generate electricity for the university’s facilities and surplus heat for buildings, showers and food service hot water, and for heating the swimming pool.

In 2001, CSUN installed six microturbines through a partnership with the South Coast Air Quality District and LADWP as a way to save energy and reduce its reliance on the state’s fragile electrical grid.

What you can doWhat you can doSupport and encourage local alternative energy projects.

CSUN, with support of LADWP and the Gas Company has installed nearly 6,000 solar panels totaling nearly 700,000 watts of power on the campus as a way of providing power while saving energy and reducing costs.

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What you can do: Personal optionsWhat you can do: Personal options

Plant trees

Install solar panels

Switch to energy saving appliances

Recycle

Drive a fuel efficient vehicle

Use mass transit, cycle, carpool

Buy green energy

What you can do: Personal optionsWhat you can do: Personal options

Turn off the air conditioner

Turn off the lights when you leave a room

Install compact fluorescent light bulbs

Don’t fly unless you have to

Buy locally grown produce

Put your water heater on a timer

Use recycled paper and timber

What you can do.What you can do.This year – GOAL: Reduce your emissions by 3 – 4%:

1. Your car.

Avg. American drives 15,600 miles per year4% reduction = driving about 12 fewer miles per week

Another 4% by getting 1 – 2 more mpg:

• minimize high-speed driving (fuel economy drops 17% between 55 and 70 miles per hour); • idle for no more than 30 seconds • keep tires properly inflated.

What you can do.What you can do.

This year – GOAL: Reduce your emissions by 3 – 4%:

2. Your lights

Lighting accounts for 5 - 10 % of the average household's energy budget.

Replace incandescent bulbs with compact fluorescent lights (CFLs), which use 25% - 33% of the energy to provide the same amount of light. CFLs also last up to 10 times longer.

What you can do.What you can do.

This year – GOAL: Reduce your emissions by 3 – 4%:

3. Heating and appliances.

Lowering your water heater’s thermostat by 10° (or to 120 °F) or your heating thermostat by 2° can both reduce your energy use 3 – 5%.

Buy appliances or equipment with Energy Star-rated models

What you can do.What you can do.This year – GOAL: Reduce your emissions by 3 – 4%:

4. Waste less.

Unplug a freezer. One of the quickest ways to reduce your global warming impact is to unplug the extra refrigerator or freezer you rarely use -- except when you need it for holidays and parties. This can reduce the typical family's CO2 gas emissions nearly 10%.

5. Power choice

Buy “green power” (electricity generated from renewable resources such as the sun and wind)

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What you can do.What you can do.

This year – GOAL: Reduce your emissions by 3 – 4%:

6. Microwave.

How did we ever live without them?Great for many cooking and use 67% less energy than an electric oven. During the summer, they won’t heat up your kitchen and make you turn up the A/C.

7. Wash your clothes in cold water instead of hot.

If you use the right detergent, your clothes will be just as clean and you will cut your energy use in half.

What you can do.What you can do.

Avg mpg of car today = 24 mpgWe have the technology to raise this to 40 mpg today.Each gallon of gas releases 20 - 25 lbs CO2

Cost of Renewable Energy SourcesCost of Renewable Energy Sources

http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/global_warming/ClimateSolns.pdf

What you can do: WebsitesWhat you can do: WebsitesIf you visit only one site, visit this one from the Union of Concerned Scientists:

http://www.ucsusa.org/

Facts and figures from the EPA:

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/

What you can do (Inconvenient Truth):

http://www.climatecrisis.net/

The scientific facts from the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change):

http://www.ipcc.ch/