Global warming is leading to a rise in sea

surface temperatures which has led to an

increase in hurricane intensity

Global warming is leading to a rise in sea

surface temperatures which has led to an

increase in hurricane intensity

Environmental Science Policy ForumScripps Institution of Oceanography

Shivani Singh

Environmental Science Policy ForumScripps Institution of Oceanography

Shivani Singh

Global Warming and Rise in SST’s

Global Warming and Rise in SST’s

GHG’s Trap Heat in Atmosphere leading to 1 C increasein Global Temperature (GT) over past 130 years.Increase GT-> 0.5 C Increase Global Sea Surface Temp (SST)

Source: Science Magazine, 9.16.2005, P. Webster

Anthropogenic CO2 and Global Warming

Anthropogenic CO2 and Global Warming

•Competing theories•Natural fluctuation•Anthropogenically driven

•Studies suggest rapid rise inconsistent with natural fluctuations

•IPCC report 2003• Emanuel, Essay, 2004

•Recent spike in atmospheric CO2 coincides with rapid rise in anthropogenic CO2 emissions.

The Hurricane Heat EngineThe Hurricane Heat Engine

“If you think of a hurricane like a car,” explains NASA’s Dr. David Adamec, “there are a lot of parts that keep it going, but the sea surface temperature and the heat that is provided by the ocean, that is the gasoline that fuels it.”

The greater the temperature gradient the

more free energy.

“If you think of a hurricane like a car,” explains NASA’s Dr. David Adamec, “there are a lot of parts that keep it going, but the sea surface temperature and the heat that is provided by the ocean, that is the gasoline that fuels it.”

The greater the temperature gradient the

more free energy.

Increase SST’s

coincide with

Rise in Hurricane Intensity

Increase SST’s

coincide with

Rise in Hurricane Intensity

Source: Science Magazine, 9.16.2005, P. Webster article

Scientific Analysis attributes Hurricane Intensity to Global

Warming

Scientific Analysis attributes Hurricane Intensity to Global

Warming “Detailed examinations of historical

records of hurricanes show pronounced upward trend 1949-2004

Hurricane trends and other variations correlate well w/ trend and variability in tropical sea surface temperature, whose upward swing in the last 30 years appears to be unprecedented over the last several thousand years.

This suggests that the [SST] global upward trend is a consequence of global warming.”

- Dr. Kerry Emanuel, Leading Hurricane Intensity Expert, MIT

“Detailed examinations of historical records of hurricanes show pronounced upward trend 1949-2004

Hurricane trends and other variations correlate well w/ trend and variability in tropical sea surface temperature, whose upward swing in the last 30 years appears to be unprecedented over the last several thousand years.

This suggests that the [SST] global upward trend is a consequence of global warming.”

- Dr. Kerry Emanuel, Leading Hurricane Intensity Expert, MIT

SOURCE - Kerry Emanuel, Hurricane Intensity Leading Expert, MIT http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/anthro2.htm

Claim: Global Warming Increases SST’s,

leading to RISE in Hurricane Intensity Claim: Global Warming Increases SST’s,

leading to RISE in Hurricane Intensity

"We do see this trend in SST that's relentlessly rising and the hurricane intensity that's relentlessly rising.

So, with some confidence, we can say that these two things are connected and there's probably a substantial contribution from greenhouse warming and not just a natural variability. "

- Judith Curry, chairwoman of Georgia Tech's School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, co-author with P. Webster on Science article on Hurricane and SST’s 9.16.2005

"We do see this trend in SST that's relentlessly rising and the hurricane intensity that's relentlessly rising.

So, with some confidence, we can say that these two things are connected and there's probably a substantial contribution from greenhouse warming and not just a natural variability. "

- Judith Curry, chairwoman of Georgia Tech's School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, co-author with P. Webster on Science article on Hurricane and SST’s 9.16.2005

REFERENCES

Emanuel, K. A., 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688

Webster et al. September 16, 2005 Science Article : Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment

Trenberth, K.E., 2005: Uncertainty in Hurricanes and Global Warming. Science, 308, 1753-1754.

www.nasa.govwww.noaa.govhttp://www.realclimate.org