Global Warming in Geologic Time David Archer University of Chicago.
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Transcript of Global Warming in Geologic Time David Archer University of Chicago.
Global Warmingin
Geologic Time
David ArcherUniversity of Chicago
Joseph Fourier Memoires d l’Academie Royale des Sciences de l’Institute de France VIIII, 570-604 (1827)
Joseph Fourier described the greenhouse effect in 1827
(1-α) Isolar4 ε σ T
4earth
Sun Light Earth Light
Earth
Tearth = 259 K = -14° C = 6°F
Energy Balance of a Bare Rock
(1-α) Isolar4
Earth
Atmosphere
I ,up atmosphere
I ,down atmosphere
I ,up ground
Boundary to Space
Tatm = 259 K
Tearth = 303 K = 86° F
A Planet with an Atmosphere
John Tyndall, 1859
John Tyndall discovered that CO2, H2O, and CH4 aregreenhouse gases. O2 and N2 are not.
CO O
Symmetric Stretch
Asymmetric Stretch Bend
CO O
CO OCO O
Resting State
No Resting Dipole IR Inactive
2349 cm-1 660 cm-1
CO2 is a greenhouse gas
OH H
δ+δ+
2δ-
Resting State
OH H
OH H
Symmetric Stretch Bend
3657 cm-1 1594 cm-1
Water vapor is a greenhouse gas
Earth’s outgoing infrared spectrum
The band saturation effect
Svante Arrhenius
Svante Arrhenius calculated that doubling CO2 would warm the Earth by 4-6°C, in 1896
The water vapor feedback
Temperature+
+Water VaporConcentration
Water Vapor Feedback
Temperature+
+Ice Melts
Ice Albedo Feedback
The ice albedo feedback
Temperature Rise from 2000 to 2300, °C
Intense warming in high latitudes because of ice-albedo feedback
David Keeling
David Keeling started measuring CO2 concentration in the atmosphere
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400A
tmo
sph
eric
pC
O2
, pp
m
Mauna Loa, Hawaii
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
IPCC
IPCC predicted in 1990 that global warming would rise above the noise by 2000
IPCC
IPCC in 1995 found a “discernable human influence on global climate”
Only greenhouse gasforcing looks like therecent temperature rise.
Climate forcings
Crowley, 2000
What about phenomenaundreamed-of?
The sun is good at pushing our climate buttons.
Clouds? Humidity?
“They blame CO2 because they can’t think of anything else.”
A detective story
The Butler. Found holding a smoking gun next to the deceased. Forensics matches the gun with the bullets.
The Chauffer. In Kentucky for sister’s wedding. “Can’t think of any way he could have done it.”
To convict the Chauffer, we’d have to first unconvict the Butler.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000
Ocean Invasion
Reaction with CaCO3
Year A.D.
Reaction with Igneous Rocks
Air
born
e F
ract
ion
of C
arbo
n R
elea
sed
Century timescale peak
Millennial timescale tail
What happens to fossil fuel CO2
One gallon of gasoline
Usable energy: 2500 kcal
Unwanted greenhouse energy over CO2 lifetime:
One gallon of gasoline
Usable energy: 2500 kcal
Unwanted greenhouse energy over CO2 lifetime: 100,000,000,000 kcal
Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change
If the peak contains 50% of the emitted CO2, and climate sensitivity T2x = 3° C, then we could emit~ 700 Gton C and avoid warming greater than 2° C.
We have already emitted 300 Gton C.
Oil + Gas ~ 400 Gton C. Just stop burning coal.
How Long will Global Warming Last?
IPCC 2001 and earlier reports implied that global warming would last about a century.
“Carbon dioxide cycles between the atmosphere, oceans andland biosphere. Its removal from the atmosphere involves arange of processes with different time scales. About 50% of a CO2 increase will be removed from the atmosphere within 30 years, and a further 30% will be removed within a few centuries. The remaining 20% may stay in the atmosphere for many thousands of years.”
IPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers
4000-5000 Gton C Release
Peak 1 kyr 10 kyr
CLIMBER 67% 57% 26%Archer 2005 60% 33% 15%Lenton 2006 67-75% 14-16% 10-15%Ridgwell subm. 50% 34% 12%Tyrell 2007 70% 42% 21%
Atmosphere / Ocean / Weathering / CaCO3 models
Airborne Fraction
1000-2000 Gton C Release
Peak 1 kyr 10 kyr
CLIMBER 45% 31% 14%Archer 2005 58% 24% 11%Lenton 2006 50-63% 17-19% 11%
Atmosphere / Ocean / Weathering / CaCO3 models
Airborne Fraction
Warming for the Long Haul
1000 10,000years yearsfrom now from now
2000 Gton C 3° C 1.5°
5000 Gton C 5° 3°
3 °C
Year A.D.
Nor
ther
n H
em
isph
ere
Ave
rage
Tem
per
atur
e
How much is 3 °C?
1000 2000
So What Part I: Sea Level
-150
-100
-50
50
100Sea Level, m
Last GlacialMaximum20 kyr ago
Eocene40 Myr ago
Today
Pliocene3 Myr ago
-10 -5 0 5
Global T Change, °C
So What Part I: Sea Level
-150
-100
-50
50
100Sea Level, m
Last GlacialMaximum20 kyr ago
Eocene40 Myr ago
Today
IPCC Forecast for the year 2100
Pliocene3 Myr ago
-10 -5 0 5
Global T Change, °C
So What Part I: Sea Level
-150
-100
-50
50
100Sea Level, m
Last GlacialMaximum20 kyr ago
Eocene40 Myr ago
Today
Eventual Sea Level Rise?
Pliocene3 Myr ago
-10 -5 0 5
Global T Change, °C
Message to Florida: 20 meters would be it for ya’ll
Heat Diffuses Slowly
Ice flows if there’s water at the bed
It takes thousands of years to respondto climate changes.
Ice sheet models
Melt water carriesheat quickly
We don’t know how water gets through the ice
The real Greenlandice sheet responds in a few months.
Real ice sheets
A moulin in Greenlandwhere water submerges into the ice.
Zwalley et al (2002)
Earthquakes under Greenland ice
Ekstrom et al., 2006
Heinrich Events 30-70 kyr ago
Ice Rafted Debris (layers of rocks inocean sediments)
Ice sheet collapsed into the ocean
Raised sea level ~5 min a few centuries.
Could the Greenland ice sheet start doing this?
Meltwater Pulse 1A 14 kyr ago
1.5 to 3 Greenlandsin 1-5 centuries.
We’re not even surewhere this water came from.
5000 Gton of C release (business-as-usual to 2100 then stop)
50 m sea level rise, eventually
3.5% of the land area, home to >10% of the world’s population
Every American ultimately inundates 1000 sq. ft. of land per year.
A long-term sea level scenario
The Next Ice Age
3002001000
22°
23°
24°
25°
Intense Seasonsin the
Southern Hemisphere
Intense Seasonsin the
Northern Hemisphere
Precession Cycle
Anglefrom the Pole
to the Orbit
Obliquity Cycle
Eccentricity Cycle5% Elliptical,95% Circular
100% Circular
Thousands of Years Ago
Low
Ecce
ntric
ityW
eak
Prec
essio
n
A Threshold Model
sunlight
Interglacial Climate State
A Threshold Model
Interglacial Climate State
summer sunlight gets weak
A Threshold Model
summer sunlight gets weak
winter snow survives the summeran ice sheet is born
Glacial Climate State
A Threshold Model
sunlight gets strong again
Ice reflects light back to space
ice persists
Glacial Climate State
400
420
440
460
480
500
520
540
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Kyr Before Present
i0Trigger-minima
Red = Trigger-minima events
Dim Northern Hemisphere Sun= Growing Ice
CLIMBER Model Nucleates an Ice Sheet
Trigger
400
410
420
430
440
450
460
470
100 200 300 400 500 600
CLIMBER model, Archer and Ganopolski, 2005
Cri
tica
l Ins
olat
ion
Val
ue, W
/m2
Atmospheric pCO2
If CO2 is higher,it takes a colder sunto nucleate the ice sheet.
Natural:Near miss!Wait until50 kyr
Archer and Ganopolski, 2005
1000 Gton:Wait until130 kyr fromnow
5000 Gton:No glaciationfor 400 kyr
Conclusions
Global warming is well understood, it has been detected,and the forecast for the end of the century is frightening.
CO2 emission will continue to effect climate for hundredsof thousands of years into the future.
Sea level may ultimately rise 100 times more than the forecast for the year 2100.