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GLOBAL WARMING, CORAL REEFSAND TROPICAL ISLANDS:

Why immediate action is essentialand how it can be achieved

Briefing for delegates to the United Nations Convention onClimate Change, Bali, December 3-14 2007

Tom Goreau, PhD

Delegation of Jamaica

Delegation of the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre

President, Global Coral Reef Alliance

Coordinator, United Nations Commission on Sustainable DevelopmentPartnership in New Technologies for Small Island Developing States

Scientific Advisor, Yayasan Karang Lestari, Bali, Indonesia

• SUMMARY

• IPCC HAS SERIOUSLY AND SYSTEMATICALLYUNDERESTIMATED THE LONG TERM IMPACTSOF GLOBAL WARMING

• CORAL REEFS AND LOW LYING ISLANDS CAN’TTAKE ANY MORE WARMING

• CATASTROPHIC CORAL MORTALITY WILLHAPPEN THE NEXT EXCEPTIONALLY HOT YEAR

• GLOBAL WARMING MUST BE REVERSED, NOTALLOWED TO CONTINUE

• THE TOOLS TO DO SO ARE AVAILABLE BUT ARENOT BEING USED DUE TO LACK OF POLICIESAND FUNDING FOR THEIR IMPLEMENTATION

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F.W. Goreau, 1948Bimini, Bahamas

For Island Nations coralreefs provide most ofour marine biodiversity,fisheries, sand, shoreprotection, tourism, andbeauty. We treat thepriceless economic andenvironmental servicesthey provide as freegoods. Coral reefs areNOT resilient, they arethe most sensitive andfragile of ecosystems,and we have alreadylost most of them.

WHAT WILL A WARMER WORLD LOOKLIKE? LOOK AT THE PAST CLIMATERECORDS, NOT AT MODELS!

• The most sophisticated models used by IPCC aretoo simple to adequately describe the realchanges of the past that are recorded in rocks,sediments, and ice cores

• The models are useful only as qualitative tools

• The Greenhouse Effect is a fundamental Law ofphysics. The only questions are how hot it will getand how fast

• Past climate records show that the modelsUNDERESTIMATE the changes we will face!

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• The last time it was 1 C warmer than today,125,000 years ago, sea levels were 7 m higher

• Crocodiles and hippopotamuses lived in London,England

• Huge waves, bigger than anything we know,flattened coral reefs and created new sand islands

• CO2 was more than 30% less then than it is today

• Those conditions underestimate long termchanges for PRESENT levels of CO2 even if nomore is ever added.

• When it was 4-5 C warmer, sea levels were 70-100meters higher

• Model projections from climate change modelsmust be way too low

Goreau 2007

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7 Meters

Goreau 1965

From Federov et al, June 9 2006, The Pliocene Paradox(Mechanisms for a permanent El Nino)SCIENCE 312: 1495-1489

CO2 and temperature, last 400,000 years

Temperature, last 65 million years

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GLOBAL CHANGE• GLOBAL WARMING SPEEDS UP

• GLOBAL SEA LEVEL RISE

• INCREASED STORM INTENSITY

• INCREASED EXTREME TEMPERATURES

• POSITIVE CLIMATE FEEDBACKS

• OCEAN ACIDIFICATION

• NEW DISEASES

• HYDROLOGICAL CHANGES (DROUGHT)

• OCEAN CIRCULATION CHANGES

• ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION CHANGES

• ECOLOGICAL DISRUPTION

• 9 of the 10 hottest years recorded have beenin the last decade

• Statistically they will be equaled orexceeded very soon

• Corals can’t take ANY further warming, theyare right at their upper limits

• Massive mortality from global warming isnot far off. No credible sign of adaptation

• Already more than half way through climatechange-caused mass extinction of reefs

• CATASTROPHIC RECURRENT BLEACHING IMMINENT

• CORAL REEFS, TROPICAL ISLANDS, FIRST VICTIMS

9 f th 10 h tt t d d h b

Global warming is out of control

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GLOBAL CLIMATECHANGE IS TAKINGPLACE MORERAPIDLY THAN IPCCPREDICTED, AND ISCERTAIN TOACCELERATE IN THEFUTURE UNLESSGREENHOUSE GASCONCENTRATIONSIN THE ATMOSPHEREARE REDUCED ATLEAST A THIRDBELOW PRESENTLEVELS

Rahmstorf et al 2007

CLIMATE MODELS SERIOUSLYUNDERESTIMATE THE IMPACTS

1) THEY DO NOT ACCOUNT FOR MOST OFTHE POSITIVE FEEDBACKS THAT THE

PAST CLIMATE RECORDS SHOW

2) THEY USE A HORIZON OF DECADES NOTOF THOUSANDS OF YEARS, WHICH ISNEEDED TO FEEL THE FULL EFFECTS

3) CLIMATE CHANGE WILL BE WORSE ANDBECOME MUCH FASTER THAN MODELS

PREDICT

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Goreau briefings to Island Nation delegates at theEarth Summit, Rio de Janeiro, 1992

Comparison of the climate sensitivity of IPCCprojections in comparison with actualsensitivity of the climate system shown inAntarctic Ice and Deep Sea Sedimentrecords shows that:

1) IPCC underestimates sensitivity oftemperature to CO2 about 10 times

2) IPCC underestimates sensitivity of sealevel to temperature about 100 times

3) IPCC underestimates sensitivity of sealevel to CO2 about 1000 times

CORAL REEFS ARE THE MOST HEATSENSITIVE ECOSYSTEM

1 DEGREE RISE FOR ONE MONTH IN THEWARM SEASON CAUSES BLEACHING

2 DEGREES FOR ONE MONTH OR

1 DEGREE FOR TWO MONTHS

CAUSES MASS MORTALITY

KNOWN FOR NEARLY 90 YEARS

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T. F. Goreau, 1963Jamaica, Hurricane Flora

LOCAL CORAL BLEACHING ONLY PRIOR TO1980S

SINCE 1980S ALMOST ALL BLEACHING HASBEEN MASS BLEACHING, OVER VASTAREAS OF OCEAN, UNRELATED TO LOCALSTRESS

THE GOREAU-HAYES HOTSPOT METHOD,FIRST PRESENTED AT AL GORE’S SENATEPANEL HEARING IN 1990 HAS PREDICTEDTHE LOCATION, TIMING, AND INTENSITY OFALL MAJOR MASS BLEACHING EVENTS,BEFORE THEY ARE VISIBLE IN THE REEF

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1998 GOREAU-HAYES HOTSPOTYELLOW AREAS GOT MORE THAN 1 DEGREE CELSIUS

ABOVE THE NORMAL MAXIMUM FOR ONE MONTH

Goreau et al 2007

Three quarters of world

reefs bleached in 1998

1987 1990 1998 2005

TCI SATELLITE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 1982-2003

GCRA has tabulated the long termsatellite sea surface temperaturerecords for all major reefs in the worldfrom 1982 through 2003. This is one ofhundreds tabulated.

Goreau & Hayes 2005

Turks and Caicos Islands

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MALE, MALDIVES

y = 0.0036x + 28.324

R2 = 0.1391

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MALE

Linear (MALE)

Goreau & Hayes 2005

KOROR, PALAU

y = 0.0036x + 28.432

R2 = 0.1367

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PALAU

Linear (PALAU)

Goreau & Hayes 2005

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FUNAFUTI, TUVALU

y = 0.0028x + 28.848

R2 = 0.1436

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FUNAFUTI

Linear (FUNAFUTI)

Goreau & Hayes 2005

BleachingTCI, 2006

has alreadykilled mostcorals in theworld

Bleaching is the number onecoral killer worldwide

Goreau et al 2007

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Black Band Disease& BleachingTCI, 2006

Most coral diseasesspread faster athigh temperature

Goreau et al 2007

White Plague DiseaseTCI, 2006

This disease is now worldwide. Diseases are number two coral killers worldwide

Goreau et al 2007

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Sea Fan DiseaseTCI, 2006

Goreau et al 2007

ALGAE OVERGROWTH OF REEFS

Algae grow faster athigh temperatures butare mainly driven by nutrients from sewageand deep waterupwelling

Last surviving coral

Goreau et al 2007

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• The mean trend of temperature risefrom our data base of long termsatellite data from all major coral reefsof the world shows most are within afew years of catastrophic mortality

• But the real question is not the averageincrease, but when the next extremehigh temperature event and high sealevel events will take place

• These could happen at any time

AREAS OF LOWER GLOBAL WARMING

Goreau et al 2005

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Regions warming more slowlythan average

• Interiors of ocean basins where wind isincreasing, mixing cold deep water up

• Areas where strong currents mix deepwater to the surface

Areas of higher global warming

Goreau et al 2005

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Regions warming more rapidlythan average

• Warm currents

• Cold currents

• Enclosed seas

• Upwelling zones: major fisheriescollapsing from bottom up

• Almost all coral reefs and islandnations

Sudden, severe, widespread, andprolonged changes in oceanupwelling of cold deep water

1989 Eastern Tropical Pacific

1998 Indian Ocean

More to come?

Global changes in ocean circulation areAlready underway, affecting the entire planet

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MENTAWAI, INDONESIA

y = 0.0034x + 28.544

R2 = 0.0965

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MENTAWAI

Linear (MENTAWAI)

Goreau & Hayes 2005

LAS PERLAS, PANAMA

y = 0.0149x + 24.5

R2 = 0.3063

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PERLAS

Linear (PERLAS)

Goreau & Hayes 2005

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• The problem is fossil fuel use

• Stabilization of climate at presenttemperatures requires CO2 levels at leastone third LOWER than today’s

• This is not possible without seriousreductions in fossil fuel use, or seriousincreases in carbon sinks

• Instead we are cutting the forests anderoding soil carbon. Melting permafrostwill turn tundra peat into methane andcarbon dioxide, all accelerating warming.Serious loss of Amazon rainforests looms.

• AT THE EARTH SUMMIT IN 1992 WEWARNED GOVERNMENTS IF THEY DIDNOT STOP GLOBAL WARMING WEWOULD LOSE MOST OF THE CORALSIN THE NEXT 10 YEARS.

• THEY DID NOT ACT, SIGNED ATREATY THAT IS A DEATH SENTENCEFOR REEFS, AND MOST CORALS DIED

• REEFS REMAIN, BUT THEY AREMOSTLY DEAD AND ERODING, NOTGROWING

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• Kyoto only stabilizes rates of

greenhouse gas rise, not

concentrations

• It therefore is a death warrant for

reefs even if countries lived up to

their promises

• Only rapid global action can make

a difference

• We will lose our coral reefs,fisheries, tourism, biodiversity, andshore protection within a few yearsunless we urgently start activelyrestore reefs with corals that arefaster growing and more resistantto stress

• The technology already exists todo this

• It can be powered by solar, wind,and tidal energy

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• Biorock structures are the only marineconstruction material that get strongerwith age and are self repairing.

• The steel framework is completelyprotected from rusting

• Biorock material grown properly hasthree times the compressive strength ofordinary concrete.

• Structures cost much less than concreteor rock of the same dimensions

• Invented by Architect Wolf Hilbertz togrow construction materials from oceanminerals

Four month old reef in Gili Trawangan, Lombok,Indonesia

E. Woollacott, 2006

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August 2006 9 months old

Laurent Lavoye

Gili Trawangan

10monthcoral

Chris Hendricks

Gili Trawangan

September 2006

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1.5 year old

reef in Gili

Trawangan,

Lombok,

Indonesia

E. Woollacott, 2006

1.5 year old

reef in Gili

Trawangan,

Lombok,

Indonesia

E. Woollacott, 2006

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1.5 year old reef in Gili Trawangan,

Lombok, Indonesia

E. Woollacott, 2006

3 year old Biorock reef, Ibu Karang,

Pemuteran,Bali, Indonesia,J. Cervino 2004

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GRAND TURKNOV 17 2007

Fernando Perez

GRAND TURKNOV 17 2007

Fernando Perez

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GRAND TURKNOV 17 2007

Marlon Hibbert

BIOROCK CORALS

• Grow 3-5 times faster

• Heal more than 20 times faster

• Survive high temperatures 16-50times more than adjacent reefs

• Have hundreds of times higherbaby coral settlement

• Attract incredible numbers of fish

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• Corals can survive under lethal conditions

• Reefs can be quickly restored where theycan’t recover naturally

• Fishermen can grow reefs and greatlyincrease fish and shellfish populations andcatches, becoming farmers instead ofhunters

• Breakwaters can be built for a fraction of theprice of concrete or stone, with vastlygreater environmental benefits

• Winner of many international environmentaland ecotourism prizes

BIOROCK REEFS CAN BE BUILT INFORMS THAT GREATLY INCREASEHABITAT FOR AND POPULATIONS OFFISH, LOBSTERS, AND OYSTERS:

GROW ENTIRE COMPLEX ECOYSTEMSWITHOUT ADDITION OF FOOD, AND SOAVOID THE GENETICIMPOVERISHMENT, DISEASE,PARASITE, AND POLLUTIONPROBLEMS CAUSED BYCONVENTIONAL MARICULTURE

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FISHING COMMUNITIES ARE HUNTERS,DESTROYING WILD ANIMALS AND THEIRHABITAT IN ORDER TO SURVIVE

USING BIOROCK THEY CAN BECOMESEA FARMERS, WHO RESTORE ANDIMPROVE HABITAT IN ORDER TOPRODUCE MORE

MARINE PROTECTED AREAS WON’TWORK AGAINST GLOBAL WARMING

Biorock is the cheapest and mostcost effective solution for:

• Coral reef restoration

• Fisheries restoration

• Shellfish restoration

• Shore protection

• Mariculture

• Building stone and aggregate

• Protecting reefs from global warming

• Ecotourism

• Began in Jamaica, now in more than 20countries

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Biorock shore protection project at Ihuru Island,Biorock shore protection project at Ihuru Island,

Maldives, turned a severely eroding beach intoMaldives, turned a severely eroding beach into

15 meters (50 feet) growth in a few years15 meters (50 feet) growth in a few years

Before: Severe erosionBefore: Severe erosionW. Hilbertz, 1997

After 6 years the structure was cemented solidly to hard

bottom.

The waves slowed down as the structure and coral grew.

Sand dropped out and started to bury the structure

Azeez Hakeem, 2003

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Coral survival from bleaching was 50 times higher

than the surrounding reef.

Fish moved in from the adjacent reef where corals died.

Azeez Hakeem, 2003

This created a prize winning ecotourism attraction

Azeez Hakeem, 2003

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The beach grew 50 feet (15 meters) in a few years

Azeez Hakeem, 2003

Measuring the new

beach. When we began

the sandbags were piled

in front of the building,

which was about to

collapse into the sea.

The Biorock reef

breakwater uses about as

much power as the beach

lights, and cost less than

one tenth what concrete,

rock, or sandbag walls of

the same dimensions.

Azeez Hakeem, 2003

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The Biorock reef (150 foot long dark line in front of thebeach),

is about to be buried by the growing beach

Azeez Hakeem, 2003

WE CAN ADAPT TO THE EFFECTS OFGLOBAL WARMING AND SEA LEVELRISE ON CORAL REEFS AND ISLANDSHORELINES WHERE WE CANPROVIDE POWER FROM SOLAR, WIND,TIDAL ENERGY, BUT ONLY WITHINLMITS.

FLOATING CORAL REEFS CAN ALSOBE GROWN TO RESTORE COASTALAND OPEN OCEAN FISHERIES.

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• ADAPTATION IS ONLY A SHORTTERM TACTIC, CLIMATEREVERSAL IS THE ESSENTIALLONG TERM STRATEGY

•

• THE LONG TERM SOLUTIONREQUIRES REDUCTIONS IN CO2CONCENTRATIONS, NOT JUSTSTABILIZING THEM AT A LEVELHIGHER THAN TODAY’S.

• No scientifically sound strategy tomanage the impacts of globalclimate change can be donewithout a complete accounting ofall greenhouse gas sources andsinks. This is NOT now the case!

• SIMULTANEOUS SOURCEREDUCTIONS AND INCREASEDSINKS ARE NEEDED TOSTABLILIZE CO2 AT LOWERLEVELS

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LARGE SCALE RESTORATION OF ALL LANDAND SEA ECOSYSTEMS IS NEEDED TO NOTONLY TO STORE CARBON BUT TO RESTORETHE NATURAL REGULATION OF CLIMATE,WATER, SOIL, AND FISHERIES THAT WEHAVE LARGELY DESTROYED

RECYCLING OF SOLID WASTES ANDSEWAGE TO MAKE CLEAN WATER,FERTILIZER, AND FUELS IS ESSENTIAL TOINCREASE FERTILITY OF THE LAND ANDSTOP KILLING THE OCEANS. THETECHNOLOGY EXISTS BUT ARE NOT USED.

United Nations Commission on SustainableDevelopment Partnership on New

Technologies for Small Island DevelopingStates and United Nations Framework

Convention on Climate ChangeRewrite the UNFCCC to make scientific sense and be ablueprint for effective action

Large scale investment in cost-effective clean energyespecially tidal current vertical axis turbines

Gaseous and liquid fuels and fertilizers from wastes andbiomass

Sustainable Integrated Mariculture

Large scale terrestrial and marine ecosystem restoration

Large scale carbon storage in soils using ancient AmazonianIndian methods to greatly increase soil fertility and drawdown excess carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere.

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Source side measures• Tidal energy is the only untapped cost-

effective, clean, sustainable energyresource with the capacity to replacefossil fuels soon, solar is still tooexpensive.

• A crash program is urgently needed forlarge scale implementation

• Most SIDS, Indonesia, Philippinescould supply their energy needs

• Little or no funding for tidal energy

Gorlov Turbine and Frame System

(Merrimack River, Amesbury, MA)

Gorlov Turbine and frame above water

Bason 2007

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World Map of Tidal EnergyWorld Map of Tidal Energy

Red areas show most intense tidal energyRed areas show most intense tidal energy

UNFCCC, Kyoto, and CDM areseriously flawed

• Incomplete and inadequate accounting ofALL greenhouse gas sources and sinks

• Confuse net with gross fluxes

• Reward temporary reservoirs of carbon, likeforests, while ignoring long term sinks likesoils and sediments

• Open to claim false “sinks” likephytoplankton fertilization and coral reefs

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SINK SIDE Solutions not

currently recognized under CDM

• Addition of charcoal to soils, theancient Amazonian Indian TerraPreta, greatly increases soil fertility,nutrient and water holding capacity

• The charcoal remains in soil forthousands of years

• This sink could be greatlyaccelerated

Amazon soils:Yellow =infertile Black=fertile

© G

lase

r

“Terra Preta do Indio”Oxisol

0-30 cm

250 Mg ha –1 m –1 C

0-30 cm

100 Mg ha –1 m –1 C

Steiner 2007

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Charcoal Carbon Sequestration

• Biomass carbon is converted tocharcoal and then put back intothe soil.

• About 2500 gigatons (Gt) ofcarbon are stored in soils

• This is about 4 times as muchas atmospheric CO2 or totalglobal forest biomass carbon.

• Soil charcoal remains thousands tomillions of years in soils, and increasessoil water and nutrient holdingcapacity, but is not included as a CDMsink, even though it is potentially oneof the most effective means ofincreasing long term carbon storage,stabilizing climate change, andincreasing fertility of tropical soils forsustainable development

• Improved kilns allow fuels to also beproduced along with charcoal

•

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Charcoal Carbon Sequestration

• Addition of charcoal to soils canstore significant amount of carbon,for up to hundreds of millions ofyears.

• This is a permanent carbon sink,unlike forests which are onlytemporary

• However forest carbon is eligiblefor carbon credits while soil carbonis not!

Conventional Carbon Sequestration

• Currently carbon capture and storage(CCS) method costs approximatelybetween $20-25/tCO2 which isincluding capturing, transporting andinjecting costs. However, this costdoes not include the cost of fossil fueland of power plant which is part of thecost of producing CO2.

• Even if all fossil fuel carbon could besequestered, this would only slow, notreverse, CO2 buildup in theatmosphere.

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Carbon Sequestration by charcoal

• Charcoal carbon sequestration is theonly means that can REDUCE the 34%excess of CO2 already in theatmosphere

• The charcoal has many direct benefits,greatly increasing soil fertility throughits capacity to retain water andnutrients.

Benefits of Charcoal Carbon Sequestration

• Direct benefits:

- increase crop yields, up to 200%, and 266%in some cases

- increase food security and decrease ruralpoverty

- Reduce the amount of organic andinorganic fertilizer use

- reduce soil erosion and degradation

- improve soil quality by improving porosity,water holding capacity and cation exchangecapacity

- income generation by selling charcoal

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Benefits of Charcoal Carbon Sequestration

• improve soil fertility by reducingnutrient leaching.

• increase above ground and belowground biomass growth andcarbon storage.

• reduce release of nitrous oxideand methane from soil.

• reduce need for deforestation.

Char greatly increases biomassproduction

Alimasi & Goreau 2007

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Eliminating excess CO2g

It is not enough to slow the growth ofCO2, to avoid dangerous climate changethe excess CO2 in the atmosphere mustbe removed. THIS IS NOT BEINGDISCUSSED IN BALI!

This can be done by increasing globalsoil carbon by only 8% from around 0.5%by weight to around 0.54% with char, butshould be focused on agricultural soils

CONCLUSIONSMOST OF THE SOLUTIONS EXIST, BUT WEJUST AREN’T USING THEM BECAUSEPOLICY MAKERS AND FUNDING AGENCIESDON’T KNOW ABOUT THEM

CRASH PROGRAMS FOR ADAPTATION TOCLIMATE CHANGE AND TO STABILIZE CO2AT SAFE LEVELS BY IMMEDIATEINVESTMENTS IN SUSTAINABLE ENERGY,WASTE RECYCLING, LARGE SCALEENVIRONMENTAL RESTORATION AND INSOIL CARBON STORAGE ARE URGENTLYNEEDED BEFORE DAMAGE ACCELERATES

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• There are no passengers onSpaceship Earth - We are allmembers of the Crew

• If we don’t all work together we willboil or drown

• The fanatics who seek to divide usby colour, religion, language,politics, culture, income, orlocation to build their own powerbase are preventing our workingtogether and solving our commonproblems

The big oil and coal producing and consumingcountries are very well organized and throwing upconstant smoke screens to deny and minimize theimpacts of global warming and block any meaningfulefforts to reverse it, because they want to continuetheir dirty unsustainable ways, and don’t care whatthey do the rest of the world or to futuregenerations.

Coral reef countries and island nations will be thefirst and worst victims of their greed, selfishness,ignorance, and stupidity.

We cannot afford to let them obfuscate, confuse,and delay any longer!

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In Rio de Janeiro IslandNations let themselves be

tricked into signing aFramework Convention on

Climate Change that didnot serve their interests.

IN BALI WE MUST TAKETHE LEAD!

• Dr. Goreau was educated in Jamaican primary andsecondary schools,

• MIT (BS Planetary Physics)

• Caltech (MS Planetary Astronomy)

• Harvard (PhD Biogeochemistry)

• Formerly Senior Scientific Affairs Officer in chargeof climate change and biodiversity at the UnitedNations Centre for Science and Technology whenUNFCCC was being drafted

• Has dived longer and in more reefs all across theCaribbean, Pacific and Indian Ocean than anycoral scientist

• Made first measurements of Amazon deforestationeffects on greenhouse gas emissions

• Published papers on CO2 stabilization in the 1980s

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Global Coral Reef AllianceA tax exempt non-profit organization for coral reef protection,

sustainable management, and restoration, based on aworldwide network of volunteers divers, scientists, fishingvillages, environmental NGOs, government officials, and

others who care about the future of our coral reefs and theecosystems and people that depend on them

Dr. Thomas J. GoreauPresidentGlobal Coral Reef Alliance37 Pleasant Street, Cambridge, MA 02139, USATelephone: 617-864-4226, 617-864-0433E-mail: goreau@bestweb.netWeb site: http://www.globalcoral.org