By Heather Stoffel University of Rhode Island- Graduate School of Oceanography
Global Warming and The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Rhode Island John King Professor of Oceanography...
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Transcript of Global Warming and The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Rhode Island John King Professor of Oceanography...
![Page 1: Global Warming and The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Rhode Island John King Professor of Oceanography Graduate School of Oceanography University of Rhode.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062318/55155e4d55034674578b48d1/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Global Warming and The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Rhode Island
John KingProfessor of OceanographyGraduate School of OceanographyUniversity of Rhode Island
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The Problem
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What’s going on?
Increased Carbon Emissions
Rising Temperatures Rising Sea Level
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Indicators of human influence on the atmosphere
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Changes in Temperature, Sea Level and Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover
Courtesy of IPCC, 2007
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Rising Temperatures
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Rising Temperatures
Courtesy of the Union of Concerned Scientists
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Global and Continental Temperature Change
Courtesy of IPCC, 2007
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Changes in annual average temperature in the Northeast
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Changes in sea surface temperature - Maine
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Rhode Island climate “migration”
Courtesy of the Union of Concerned Scientists
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Rising Sea Level
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Four contributions to sea level rise
1. Thermal expansion of seawater
2. Melting of glaciers and ice caps
3. Ice sheet surface mass balance• snowfall - melting
4. Ice sheet surface dynamical imbalance
• increased flow rate
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Types of barrier islands
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Evolution of barrier islands during Holocene sea level rise
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Sea Level Rise: Observed vs. Projected
Interval Model Prediction Observed
mm/year
1993 - 2003 2.6 3.1
1961 - 2003 1.2 1.8
mm/year
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Projected globally averaged surface warming &sea level rise at the end of the 21st century
Courtesy of IPCC, 2007
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2006 - IPCC estimate
1. Thermal expansion of seawater .......... 28 cm
2. Glaciers and ice caps ......................... 12 cm
3. Mass balance ..................................... - 3 cm
4. Increased flow ................................... + 3 cm
Total: 40 cm
Range of Estimates: 18-59 cm
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Sea level rise projections
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Observed and Projected Sea Level Rise by 2100
Church & White, 2006, Courtesy of IPCC, 2007
observed
projected
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Sea Level Rise: Observed = Projected
observed
projected
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Sea Level Rise: New Estimates
Reference By 2100 Total Rise (feet)
Overpeck,
et al, 2006 > 3 13 - 20
Rahmstorf,
2007 1.6 - 4.6 ---
(feet)
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Greenhouse Gases in Ice Cores
From Brook, E. J., 2005. Science , 25 vol. 310. no. 5752, pp. 1285 - 1287
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Rising Sea Level inRhode Island ~
Southern Coastal Ponds
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Sea level rise: 3 feet
Overpeck, J. T., et al., 2006. Paleoclimatic evidence for future ice sheet instability and rapid sea level rise. Science, v. 311, p. 1747 - 1750.
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Sea level rise: 20 feet
Overpeck, J. T., et al., 2006. Paleoclimatic evidence for future ice sheet instability and rapid sea level rise. Science, v. 311, p. 1747 - 1750.
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Quonnie Pond: present sea level
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Quonnie Pond: 3 ft. sea level rise
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Quonnie Pond: 20 ft. sea level rise
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Global Impacts of Climate Change and Sea Level Rise
Courtesy of IPCC, 2007
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Planning Needs
1. Seamless digital terrain model for RI LIDAR survey of coastline High-resolution bathymetry of coastal
waters
2. Inundation model Storm surge with wave regime
superimposed Better understanding of coastal erosion
style and rate Expanded Rhode Island sea level and
coastal erosion monitoring program
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“Perhaps our epitaph will be:
The good Earth. We could
have saved it, but we were too
damn cheap and lazy.”
~ Kurt Vonnegut