Global Warming andOur Oil Addiction

Milton H. Saier, Jr.

Department of Biology

University of California, San Diego

WELCOME TO HI LECTURE II!

We are living as energy hunter-gatherers.We could be energy farmers!

What we have:• Energy is the largest industry on the planet, by far.• The energy industry, already monopolistic, is consolidating.• The U. S. spends >$1 billion per day on fuel, 60% imported.• We are entering an era of high and volatile oil prices.• We are running out of atmosphere faster than we are running out of oil!

What we know:• Energy diversity is our best defense against shortages & crises.• The energy industry needs to be redesigned to foster innovation.• Large changes are needed, but tools already exist to make this happen!

Global Carbon Budget units are billions of tons of carbon per year

Temperature record 1000-2000 AD

Source: IPCC WG1, Third Assessment Report (2001)

GLOBAL WARMING: Early Warning GLOBAL WARMING: Early Warning SignsSigns

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Fingerprints and HarbingersHeat waves and periods of unusually warm weather

Sea level rise and coastal flooding

Glaciers melting

Arctic and Antarctic warming

Spreading disease

Earlier spring arrival

Plant and animal range shifts and population declines

Coral reef bleaching

Downpours, heavy snowfalls, and flooding

Droughts and fires

www.climatehotmap.org

And now, appearing in The Economist

The USA uses one quarter of all energy on the planet.

Energy Star HomeAverage

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Average in Berkeley

Savings Wedge

Residential Electricity Use(kWh/capita, 1960 - 2000)

• POLICIES:– Cleanest cars (cleaner internal combustion & hybrids)– Cleanest electric utilities– Most advanced building codes (Title 24)

• RESULT: – 35% less carbon/$output, billions in energy savings

• NEW INNOVATIONS:– Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard (one of 16 states)– World’s First Vehicle CO2 reduction bill– Murray Solar Homes Bill– Hydrogen Highway Initiative (?)

• Policies look good per capita, but California has a lot of capitas

California Energy Example

136 1.5 MW turbinesIn NM: cheaper than coal!

World Wind Electricity Capacity (Megawatts)(20%+ annual growth for over a decade!)

Global leaders: Germany, Denmark, Spain, US, UK, China, India (> 85 of global market)US was a global leader, today we are a player, but not the leader.

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World PV Module Shipments (Megawatts)(25% annual growth for 10+ years)

2003 Annual growth: 34%

Today: global PV production is equivalent (MW) to one large fossil-fuel power plant/year

Efficiency: AFTER AND BEFORE New T-5’s (left) Old incandescents (right)

Financial: solar funded efficiency; efficiency paid for solar.

Solar Subdivisions

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Kenya Solar Market Growth (largest market per/capita among developing nations)

• SHS market grew out of donor aid market in 1980s• Infrastructure & capacity building support key for sustained growth

14 Watt solar panel

Duke, Richard. D, Jacobson, Arne, and Daniel M. Kammen (2002) “Product quality in the Kenyan solar home industry”, Energy Policy, 30 (6), 477-499

Learning Curve for PV Modules (crystalline silicon)

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Cumulative installed PV Peak Power [GWp]

[€/Wp]

20202010

At today’s prices, PV electricity costs about $0.20 - 0.25/kWh, compared with $0.32/kWh PG&E charges for TOU customers during peak time (noon-6pm).

http://socrates.berkeley.edu/~rael/papers.html

Report availableat:

Study reviews:

• 13 studies of job creation

• Message: energy efficiency and renewables create large numbers of high quality jobs

1942... 2002...

What have we learned in 60 years?The U. S. Does Seem to Need a Villain for Motivation …

New SUV Models Coming Soon

The Kenworth Grand Dominator - Extra high roof/cathedral ceilings - Power expandable sides - Full lavatory

The Peterbuilt CrusaderAll Sport Denali

The worlds first two story high performance sport brute

Crusader-E Edition: includes elevator

Source: http://poseur.4x4.org/futuresuv.html

So, What are We Doing About All This?

Well, ….

Federal R&D Portfolio

Federal R&D Policy Can be Very Effective(All sectors of the U. S. Economy)

R. Margolis and D. Kammen (1999) Science, 285, pages 690 - 692

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The Same Funding-Patent Correlation …But Now for Energy Only

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R. Margolis and D. Kammen (1999) Science, 285, 690 - 692.

Private Sector Investment in Health and Energy R&D

Nemet & Kammen, in review

To change things: this can’t be our world view