Global Warming Global Warming (and Florida)(and Florida)

UF, School of Building ConstructionAugust 28, 2003

Mark van SoestbergenICBE

Carbon DioxideCarbon Dioxide

Intercepts infrared waves going into space

Gasoline is 85.5% carbonGasoline is 85.5% carbon

                                                                                                

1 gallon of conventional gasoline becomes172 cubic feet / 4.87 cubic meters of CO2

125 gallon makes one ton CO125 gallon makes one ton CO22

1 ton of CO2 easily fills up a 19,866 cubic feet / 556 cubic meters container

                                                                                                   

10 ton CO10 ton CO22 fills fills Florida Field 3 foot highFlorida Field 3 foot high

Every year, the United States produces 20 tons of CO2 per person

                                                                                                                    

                 

Humans add about 3 billion tC to the Humans add about 3 billion tC to the atmosphere each yearatmosphere each year

Copyright 2002 IPS-Inter Press Service

Asian Brown Haze

Notice the air over the Tibetan Plateau is very clear.

Most of this air pollution comes from human activities.

These particles impact local health, the region's hydrological cycle and average climate.

Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team, NASA/GSFC 12-04-2001

Image courtesySeaWiFS Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, and ORBIMAGE

01-11-2002

Image courtesy SeaWiFS Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, and ORBIMAGE

03-28-2002

Global Climate ChangeGlobal Climate Changechanges everythingchanges everything

More CO2 changes plant behavior

More CO2 increases temperature of the atmosphere, the the earth’s crust and the oceans

Global hydro cycle; rain and moisture

The Coldest Areas The Coldest Areas Warm the MostWarm the Most

Summers will be scorchersSummers will be scorchers

These maps show the projected increase in average daily July heat index relative to the present. The largest increases are in the southeastern states, where the Canadian model projects increases of more than 25°F.

For example, a July day in Atlanta that now reaches a heat index of 105°F would reach a heat index of 115°F in the Hadley model, and 130°F in the Canadian model.

FloridaFlorida

- Average temperature increase of 5 ~10°F

- Reversal of summer-wet, winter-dry

- Vectors

- Sea level rise

- Storms

Impacts on:

- Agriculture

- Tourism

- Health

- Insurance

- Tax Base

- Economy

                                                                                                         

                               

Currentlyidentifiedvulnerability zones

Expected sea level increase 21st Century:+ 1.2 meter

Florida + 5 meter, unavoidable w/out action

Courtesy: PBS

Much reduction is Much reduction is needed to reach stabilityneeded to reach stability

8

4.7

Human emission rate in billion tC/yr

t

Equilibrium

Latent atmospheric C is about 188 billion ton

Emissions the earth absorbs in billion tC/yr

Climate Change:Climate Change:A hundred year problemA hundred year problem

Achieving carbon-neutrality (the switch to clean energy) = 30 years?

Absorption of latent carbon (sequestration) = 7% of planet surface & 150 years?

CY 2001 UF GHG Profile - 519,623 tCO2

Jet Fuel0.12%Steam

28.87%

kWh50.97%

Other16.67%

Coolant Gases (HFC's)0.86%

Potable Water0.15%

Natural Gas1.72%

Gasoline & Diesel0.64%

Annual school budget vs electrical:

- UM 470m / 6m = 1.3%

- UF 1,857m / 26m = 1.4%

- UCF 578m / 9m = 1.6%

UF is planning 16% growth over the next 10 years..

What are the dollar savings if all new buildings are Green?

$1,743,000 per year

And CO2 savings over the building lifetime?

2,100,000 tCO2

U.S. commitment under KyotoU.S. commitment under Kyoto

Links and ResourcesLinks and Resources

http://www.icbe.com/uf_audit/ http://www.ucar.edu/learn/1_1_1.htm http://www.ucsusa.org/environment/gulf.html http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/visitorcenter/lists.html http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/warming/ http://www.icbe.com/carbondatabase/reductions.asp http://www.climatesafe.com/intro/intro_flash.asp http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/advsearch.html

- Nice meeting all of you!

Mark van Soestbergenmark@icbe.com

352 367 1144 tel

352 335 9140 fax

Toward Climate Stability™