Global Truck Powertrain Trends IAA 2012 · Global Truck Powertrain Trends Europe, 15.7% Europe, ......

Global Truck Powertrain Trends

Chris Fisher

Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst

September 2012

Global Engine Share Trucks GVWR > 6 Ton

Europe

19%

Greater China

36%Japan/Korea

8%

North America

14%

South America

7%

South Asia

16%

Regional Engine Usage CY 2011 - 3,091k Engines

Global Truck Powertrain Trends

Europe, 15.7%

Europe, 9.5%

Europe, 74.8%

Greater China, 45.5%



Japan/Korea, 56.4%

Japan/Korea, 27.4%

Japan/Korea, 16.2%

North America, 3.1%

North America, 51.0%

North America, 45.8%

South America, 62.9%



South Asia, 96.2%

South Asia, 3.5%

South Asia, 0.2%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%

4 - 6 Liter

6 - 9 Liter

> 9 Liter

South Asia South America North America Japan/Korea Greater China Europe

Global Engine Share Trucks GVWR > 6 Ton

CNHTC

4%

Cummins

7% Daimler

9%

Dongfeng

Cummins

4%FAW

5%

Isuzu

4%

Navistar

5%

Other

23%

Tata Cummins

5%

Toyota(Hino)

5%

Volkswagen

5%

Volvo

7%

Weichai Power

10%

Yuchai

7%

Regional Engine Usage CY 2011 - 3,091k Engines

Engine Displacement Mix Trucks GVWR > 6 Ton

Engine Parent > 9 Liter 6 - 9 Liter 4 - 6 Liter

CNHTC 96.7% 3.3% 0.0%

Cummins 26.3% 54.0% 19.6%

Daimler 56.4% 12.4% 31.3%

Dongfeng Cummins 15.3% 27.0% 57.7%

FAW 1.0% 71.7% 27.3%

Isuzu 11.8% 22.3% 65.9%

Navistar 35.0% 33.8% 31.3%

Tata Cummins 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

Toyota 7.2% 31.5% 61.3%

Volkswagen 82.4% 12.2% 5.4%

Volvo 88.8% 4.7% 6.5%

Weichai Power 98.5% 1.3% 0.2%

Yuchai 0.7% 36.6% 62.8%

North America

• Cummins

• Daimler

• Ford

• Navistar

• PACCAR

• Volvo

• Trucks GVWR > 6 ton

Cummins

33%

Daimler (DDC)

15%Ford

10%

Other

2%

Navistar

24%

PACCAR

6%

Volvo

10%

Engine Usage CY 2011 – 422k Engines

North America

• Cummins

– The only independent supplier.

– Offers engines to all N/A OEM’s (soon to include Navistar).

– Largest class 8 engine supplier.

– Complete diesel engine displacement range.

– Global footprint

• Daimler

– Detroit Diesel renamed to Detroit.

– Self supply engines primarily to their Freightliner and Western Star truck brands.

– DD13, DD15 & DD16 global engine platforms.

North America

• Ford

– Self Supply on their F

series medium trucks.

– Introduced the Scorpion

diesel engine platform

which replaced the

Navistar Powerstroke

platform.

– Does not offer a heavy

displacement engine.

• Navistar

– Offers a complete range

of MaxxForce branded

engines primarily for the

International branded

trucks.

– Will transition from EGR

to SCR after treatment

during the next 18

months.

North America

• PACCAR

– Recently introduced the

13 liter MX engine

platform.

– New engine plant in

Mississippi.

– Possibly introduce a 9

liter engine at some

point.

– Continue to use

Cummins engines.

• Volvo

– Self supplies engines for

their Mack and Volvo

branded heavy trucks.

– Engine platforms include

an 11, 13 and 16 liter

displacements.

– Outsources medium

engines from Cummins

North America• Industry Trends:

– Adoption of natural gas engines.• Natural gas refueling infrastructure.

• High cost of natural gas engines.

• Cost difference between diesel and natural gas.

– Hybrid trucks.• High upfront cost.

• Start and stop applications such as buses, local distribution and refuse haulers.

• Cost of diesel an important factor for adoptions.

– Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission regulations for MY2014 –MY2018. Targets improved fuel economy.

– Automated manual transmissions (AMT) will play a key role moving forward.

– Shift from 15 liter to 13 liter engines throughout the industry.

Europe

• Daimler

• Fiat Powertrain Technologies

(FPT)

• Kamaz

• PACCAR

• Volkswagen

• Volvo


Daimler

20%

FPT

10%

Kamaz

8%

Other

13%PACCAR

9%

Volkswagen

23%

Volvo

17%

Engine Usage CY 2011

Europe

• Daimler

– Introduced their global heavy duty engine platform (HDEP).

– HDEP consists of an 11 L, 13L, 15 L and 16 L engine.

– Recently introduced the medium engine platform (MDEP) which include the 7.7 liter and 5.1 liter engines.

• Fiat Powertrain Technologies (FPT)

– Broad range from 3 – 13 liter engines.

– Include the 4 – 6 Liter tector and 8 – 13 Liter cursor platforms.

– The 3 Liter F1C replaced the Mitsubishi 4M on Mitsubishi Fuso engines in Japan and South Asia.

Europe

• Kamaz

– Manufactures a 10 and

11 liter engine.

– Joint Venture with

Cummins (KAMA) to

produce 6 liter ISB

engines.

– Joint Venture with

Daimler which may lead

to engine technology.

• PACCAR

– Currently manufacture

an 13 liter (MX) and a 9

liter (PR) engine.

– Developing an 11 Liter

engine ahead of Euro VI.

– Use PACCAR branded

Cummins engines for

medium duty

applications.

Europe

• Volkswagen

– MAN and Scania

combined produce

engines between 5 – 16

Liters.

– Currently, brands are

separate but Volkswagen

will merge the

powertrain lineup.

• Volvo

– Produce the 9 and 11

liter engine in France

and the 13 and 16 liter in

Sweden.

– Replaced the Deutz 5

and 7 liter engine with a

five liter engine

produced in India and a

7 liter engine produced

in Japan.

Europe• Industry Trends:

– Preparing for Euro VI emission regulations.

• Implementation January 1st, 2014.

• EGR, SCR, DPF combination.

• Additional cost with little to no improvement to fuel economy.

– Hybrid trucks.

• High upfront cost.

• Start and stop applications such as buses, local distribution and

refuse haulers.

• Cost of diesel an important factor for adoptions.

– Biofuel is a focus in the industry led by Volvo.

Greater China

• CNHTC

• Dongfeng Cummins

• FAW

• Weichai Power

• Yuchai


Dongfeng/Cummins

16%

FAW

15%

Hangzhou-CNHTC

10%

Other

13%

Weichai Power

28%

Yuchai

18%

Engine Usage CY 2011 - 1,121k Engines

Greater China

• CNHTC

– Self manufactures 6.5

and 10 liter engines for

the Sinotruk brand.

– Started producing MAN

D2066 11 liter and

D2676 MAN 13 liter

engines.

• Dongfeng Cummins

– Joint venture with

Cummins.

– Produce the B, C and L

and the new 13 liter Z

series Cummins engines.

– Cummins technology will

enable the industry to

meet stricter emission

standards.

Greater China

• FAW

– FAW produces a

complete range of small

and medium engines up

to 9 Liters.

– Joint venture with Deutz

for their medium

engines.

• Weichai Power

– Significant market share

(40%) in the heavy truck

segment.

– Offers a 10 and 12 liter

engine.

– Recently introduced a

lineup of medium and

heavy natural gas

engines.

Greater China

• Yuchai

– Yuchai offers a broad

range of engines from 3

– 10 liters.

– Yuchai owns an 18%

share of the M&H truck

market and a 17% share

in the light truck market

(diesel fuel).

Greater China• Industry Trends:

– Preparing for Euro IV emission regulations.

• Implementation July 1st, 2013.

• Delayed due to fuel quality concerns.

• Economy could push the date out. No date set for Euro V.

– Market transitioning to higher displacement engines.

• Heavy trucks greatly underpowered.

• 10 liter to 11 liter and 12 liter to 13 liter.

• Foreign OEM’s such as Daimler, MAN and Cummins introducing

13 liter engines.

– Natural gas engines expected to play a greater role

moving forward.

South America

• Cummins

• Daimler

• Fiat Powertrain

Technologies (FPT)

• Navistar

• Volkswagen

• Volvo


Cummins

32%

Daimler

21%

FPT

9%Navistar

17%

Others

5%

Volkswagen

8%

Volvo

8%

Engine Usage CY 2011 - 229k Engines

South America

• Cummins

– Produces the B and C

series for Ford and

Volkswagen.

– Recently introduced the

ISL for Volkswagen heavy

trucks.

– During the next few

years, Cummins will

import the ISF light

engine from China.

• Daimler

– Offers a 5L, 7L, and 12

liter engine for

Mercedes branded

trucks.

– Vertically integrated.

Only Daimler engine

produced in Brazil are

used on Mercedes

branded trucks.

South America

• Fiat Powertrain

Technologies (FPT)

– FPT produces both

medium and heavy

engines in South

America.

– The 6 liter Tector and 8

liter Cursor are produced

in Brazil.

– The 13 liter Cursor is

produced in Argentina.

• Navistar

– Navistar acquired MWM

Motors in 2005 and

supply engines to SA

OEM’s such as Agrale,

Volkswagen and Volvo.

– Navistar has started to

export the MaxxForce 7

engine to China to

support their JV with

JAC.

South America

• Volkswagen

– With the acquisition of Scania, Volkswagen now produces heavy engines in Brazil.

– With platform upgrades, Volkswagen branded trucks will likely be equipped with the “Scania” heavy engines.

• Volvo

– Volvo produces the 11 and 13 liter heavy engines for the Volvo branded trucks in Brazil.

– MWM International provides 7 liter engines for lighter applications.

– The 7 liter engines will likely be superseded by Volvo engines produced now produced in Japan.

South America• Industry Trends:

– Euro 5 emission legislation.

• Transition from Euro III to Euro V.

• Brazil implemented in January 2012. High cost significantly

reduced demand.

• Argentina scheduled implementation for January 2013?

– Global engine platforms will enable engine

manufacturers flexibility on production location.

– May see increased engine exports to Asia and the ASEAN

regions.

South Asia

• Ashok Leyland

• Daimler

• Isuzu

• Mitsubishi

• Tata/Cummins

• Tata

• Toyota (Hino)

• Volvo


Ashok Leyland

14%Daimler

3% Isuzu

3%

Mitsubishi

7%

Other

5%Tata Cummins

34%

Tata Motors

12%

Toyota (Hino)

11%

Volvo

11%


South Asia

• Ashok Leyland

– Introduced the 5 and 8

liter “Neptune” engine

series in 2012.

– Ultimately replace the W

series engine platform.

– Installed on the U-Truck

platform.

– Euro IV compliant.

• Tata Cummins

– Produce the Cummins

5.9 liter B series and 6.7

liter ISB engines for

medium and heavy

trucks.

– Engines produced for

Tata, Eicher and Asia

Motor Works.

South Asia

• Tata

– Produce a 4 and 6 liter

engine for the truck

segment.

– Relying more on the Tata

Cummins Joint Venture

for commercial vehicle

engines.

– Possibly exit the M&H

on-highway engine

segment.

• Volvo

– Eicher Motors builds a 5

liter engine which is

used in the Eicher

branded trucks.

– Started producing the 5

liter GH5 to support

Volvo’s global engine

program.

– The GH5 is only

produced in India.

South Asia• Industry Trends:

– Much like China, expect to see this region trend to higher

displacement engines. Most heavy truck applications are

still using underpowered 6 liter engines.

– Adoption of natural gas engines will continue to increase

in an effort to improve air quality in congested areas.

– As global engine platforms continue to evolve, more

advanced engines will be manufactured in India and

possibly Indonesia.

– Expect to see stricter emission regulations during the

coming years.

Japan and Korea

• Daimler

• Hyundai

• Isuzu

• Toyota (Hino)

• Volvo


Daimler

15%

Hyundai

5%

Isuzu

36%Other

6%

Toyota (Hino)

31%

Volvo

7%


Japan and Korea

• Daimler

– The Mitsubishi Fuso

plant produces a

complete range of

engines from 5 to 13

liters.

– Also produced in Japan is

the 13 liter R series

HDEP. This engine is also

produced in Europe and

the United States

• Hyundai

– Hyundai offers a full

range of medium and

heavy engines ranging

from 3 to 13 liters.

– Hyundai recently spent

$575 million to upgrade

their engine platforms

primarily to meet the

emission regulations for

their diverse market.

Japan and Korea

• Isuzu

– Isuzu’s engine platforms range from 3 to 16 liters.

– One of the largest diesel engine producers in the world.

– Other than Isuzu branded trucks, OEM’s such as Qingling and SML Isuzu produce engines from Isuzu platforms.

• Toyota

– Hino Motors produces the medium and heavy engines for Toyota’s Hino brand.

– Engine displacements range up to 13 liters.

– Hino no longer produces engines with less than Euro IV emission ratings in Japan.

Japan and Korea

• Volvo

– Volvo Japan produces engines from 3 to 13 liters for their UD branded trucks.

– Started producing the 7 liter GH7 to support Volvo’s global engine program.

– The GH7 is only produced in Japan but is exported globally.

Japan and Korea• Industry Trends:

– Engine manufacturer platforms will become more

“global” and share common components between

regions.

– Hybrid powertrains will continue to be promoted.

– Over the longer term, the OEM’s will likely shift engine

production closer to their markets or in low cost

countries.

Thank You

www.powersys.com

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