Global Sustainable Bioenergy – GSB Latin American Convention · Global Sustainable Bioenergy...
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Global Sustainable Bioenergy Project Latin American Convention How can biofuels help the world to fulfill the GHG emissions reductions targets? Prof. José Goldemberg University of São Paulo São Paulo, Brazil São Paulo, March 23 rd 2010
Transcript of Global Sustainable Bioenergy – GSB Latin American Convention · Global Sustainable Bioenergy...
Global Sustainable Bioenergy Project
Latin American Convention
How can biofuels help the world to fulfill the GHG emissions reductions targets?
Prof. José Goldemberg
University of São Paulo
São Paulo, Brazil
São Paulo, March 23rd 2010
Carvão27,29%
Petróleo33,34%
GásNatural20,42%
Nuclear6,03%
Grandes Hidros2,06%
PCH0,24%
Marés0,00%
Solar0,11%
Vento0,16%
Geotérmica0,64%
BiomassaModerna
1,83%
Biomassa traditional 7,90%
Demanda Mundial de Energia Primária (2008)
Partes de 516 EJ
Novas Renováveis 2,96%
Renováveis modernas 5,03%
Biomassa
ModernaEJ %
Bioetanol 1,7 0,32
Biodiesel 0,5 0,09
Bioeletricidade 3,6 0,70
Calor 3,7 0,71
4
GHG emissions by sector in 2004
Source: IPCC, 2007
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
CO
2 e
mis
sio
ns
(mill
ion
to
ns
of
CO
2)
Year
World
Annex B countries
Non-annex B countries
Growth rate: 1.69% per year
Growth rate: 4.08% per year
Growth rate: 0.08% per year
World Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions
Source: CDIAC
Emissões Mundiais de C02
18000
20000
22000
24000
26000
28000
30000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mt
CO
2
Emissões Americanas de CO2
4200
4400
4600
4800
5000
5200
5400
5600
5800
6000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mt
CO
2
Emissões Chinesas de CO2
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mt
CO
2
Emissões Indianas de CO2
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mt
CO
2
Emissões da União Europeia de CO2
3650
3700
3750
3800
3850
3900
3950
4000
4050
4100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Mt
CO
2
Emissões Brasileiras de CO2
150
200
250
300
350
400
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mt
CO
2
Emissões Paulistas de CO2
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mt
CO
2
Fonte: CDIAC
1751 - 195062,324 million tC
1951 - 1980101,865 million tC
1981 - 199055,699 million tC
1991 - 2006109,116 million tC
2007 - 2020129,064 million tC
-
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
350.000
400.000
450.000
500.000
mill
ion
to
ns
of
Car
bo
n
33%% of the emissions
accumulated from
50% % of the emissions
accumulated from 1751 to 2006
39% of the emissions
accumulated from 1751 to 2006
CO2 Cumulative Emissions
GHG Cumulative Emission
Source: CAIT, 2009
EUA19,4%
EU-2714,4%
Japão4,0%
Rússia6,1%
China26,1%
Índia5,0%
Resto do mundo25,0%
Acumulado 2007 - 2020 sem Acordo de Copenhague
Fonte: CAIT, 2009
EUA18,4%
EU-2713,3%
Japão3,6%
Rússia5,9%
China26,6%
Índia5,1%
Resto do mundo27,0%
Acumulado 2007 - 2020 com Acordo de Copenhague
Fonte: elaboração dos autores baseados em CAIT, 2009.
Premissas assumidas: EUA reduzirá emissões em 17%; EU-27 em 24% e Japão em 30%. China aumentará suas
emissões em 120%; Índia em 73% e Rússia em 13%. Os demais países manterão as taxas de crescimento do
cenário “bussiness as usual”
Figura 1
World oil production by source in million barrels per day
Year
Desempenho das Usinas de Açúcar (ATR/ha)
ATR
% c
ana
Produtividade de cana-de-açúcar (t/ha)
27
Land Use to Ethanol
-
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
Current ethanol production
(Brazil + USA)
Replacement of 10% total
gasoline consumption
Replacement of 10% total
crude oil consumption
World's Agriculture Area
31 million hectares
123 million hectares
1 billion hectares
7.4 million hectares
Country/region Present gasoline
consumption
(billion liters per year)
2007
Present ethanol
production
(billion liters per year)
2008
Potential demand
resulting from present
mandates up to
2020/22 per year
US 530 34 136
European Union 148 2.3 8.51
China 54 1.9 5.4
Japan 60 0.1 1.8
Canada 39 0.9 1.95
United Kingdom 26 0.03 1.3
Australia 20 0.075 2.0
Brazil 25.2 27 19.6
South Africa 11.3 0.12 0.9
India 13.6 0.3 0.68
Thailand 7.2 0.3 0.7
Argentina 5.0 0.2 0.25
The Philippines 5.1 0.08 0.26
Total 943.2 67.3 178.7
Present production and potential demand for ethanol
