Global SNCF Mobility Index Presentation at SPREAD

Global SNCF Mobility Index

Edition 2012

04/15/23 global5.theglobaljournal.com 1

Context• Global+5 Initiative

– This index is part of the Global+5 initiative to improve global and national policy-making through a deeper understanding of crucial trends in relevant areas.

– To answer two powerful and important questions: • what are the most important global issues when looking five years ahead? and • which projects pursued today could make a real impact in five years’ time?

• Mobility as a Global Issue– Mobility is the backbone of our globalized world by

• supporting the increasing demands of people to move around on urban, regional and global levels; and • by supporting the global economy by allowing goods to be transported from production sites to the

locations of final use. – Availability of mobility is becoming crucial to the future evolution of the world but it is also

becoming one of the crucial factors of negative impact on the world due to its rapid increase and the resulting disruption, and due to its impact on the environment.


The IndexAn Introduction

• An On-going Effort– This edition is the first approach to questions around the mobility.– We are planning to continuously improve and develop this index over the coming years, and

hence have created an advisory board with prominent experts in the field of mobility to advise and support us in this work.

• A Quality Approach– We have only used data from global and quality data sources like the World Bank, OECD, and

UNCTAD.

• An Innovative Approach– We have been using available data in an innovative, situational and holistic analysis; thus

helping to determine the stress points of mobility.


Some Trends to Illustrate Our Approach

Forecast of Passenger Transport Forecast of Freight Transport

Forecast of Transport CO2 Emissions


Objectives• To reinforce information on sustainable economic development, in conjunction

with mobility, based on facts and trends.

• To raise awareness of the importance of the global mobility of goods on economic development and the potential challenges in the coming years in regional and urban mobility.

• To allow national policy- and decision-makers to benchmark their countries’ performance in mobility (global goods, and regional and urban mobility for people and goods).

• To provide valuable insights into national policy for mobility strategies.


The IndexWhat are we looking at?

• Goods Mobility Stress: How dependent is a country on the transport of goods for its own economic development?

• Regional Urban Mobility Stress: How much will a country be exposed to system stress for its regional and urban mobility—based on the future evolution of the population, its demographic distribution and the urban population? Furthermore, what is the current performance of this regional and urban mobility?

• Mobility Health Check: What is the impact of transport on the environment?

• Future Mobility Fitness: What is the future investment pattern, in view of the modality of transport?


Results and InsightsGoods Mobility Stress

• 21 of the 66 ranked countries have transport growth greater than GDP growth, but when we look at the G20, we find more than half of them in this situation and three of the five BRICS countries. For the European Union, one of them, Germany, is in this situation.

• Because of this significant number of countries exposed to the stress generated by goods mobility, we can foresee a major impact in the coming years on world trade due to saturation and overuse of transport infrastructure.

• This will also imply that the necessity to increase investment in transport infrastructure will become crucial.

• When we put this in conjunction with the environmental impact, we can see that there are the underpinnings of a major challenge to the sustainability of global goods mobility.


Results and InsightsRegional Urban Mobility Stress

• Based on our innovative approach, we be able to understand the stress on mobility systems generated by population and urbanization growth. Furthermore, the analysis of demographic evolution allows us to understand elements of the future development of this stress on mobility systems.

• Countries fall in three distinct categories:

– Aging populations: Many developed countries in Europe and North America show significant stress due to a continued significant growth of urbanization. This stress implies significant needs for mobility in urban centres and between them. This implies that there is pressure to continuously develop these infrastructures, but given their aging populations, we can foresee a reduction of mobility needs.

– Immediate stress: This second group of countries includes those that are currently exposed to Regional Urban Mobility Stress and their demographic evolution shows that this will continue to be the case for the coming years. These countries are all experiencing a combination of high population growth, which is mainly starting to decline, and high urban growth, either still rising or reaching maturity.

– Stress in the coming five years: The third group includes countries with a high population growth and where stress will further accentuate in the next few years due to demographic evolution. In all cases this growth will start to decline, though urban growth is still rising for the majority. This implies the challenge to develop in a timely fashion transport infrastructure. Most countries in this situation with the highest level of stress are also at the bottom of the Mobility Health Check Rating.


Results and InsightsMobility Health Check

• 58 of the 66 ranked countries have their CO2 emissions generated by transport increased in the period 2000 to 2008.

• When we look at the European Union, only two countries have not had increases in CO2 emissions due to transport.

• For the G20, only five have not had increased CO2 emissions generated by transport.

• Finally, when we look at BRICS, which are a motor of the global economy, all of them have increased CO2 emissions generated by transport.

• In conclusion, we can easily see that the impact of transport on the environment will continue to increase if we cannot address the increase in the demand for transport and better use the different transport modalities to reduce that impact.


Results and InsightsFuture Mobility Fitness

• Looking at investment and maintenance decisions for the transport infrastructure in OECD countries, we can see that only Austria is actually investing more in rail and waterways (we regroup under waterways: inland waterways and seaport infrastructure) than in road and air.

• These investment choices will further contribute to the difficulty in reducing the environmental impact of transport, as it is quite clear that rail and waterways have a much higher chance of reducing the environmental impact than the other modalities.

• And a similar conclusion can be made when looking at the capacity to absorb significant increases in the transport for goods. This analysis also shows the necessity to revisit the use and the development of mobility infrastructure in a more holistic way.


RankingsEuropean Union

Goods Mobility Stress

1.Romania 2.212.Czech Republic 1.413.Slovak Republic 1.354.Hungary 1.145.Greece 0.996.Slovenia 0.817.Ireland 0.728.Austria 0.589.Denmark 0.4510.United Kingdom 0.3711.Italy 0.3312.France 0.3313.Spain 0.3214.Sweden 0.3115.Netherlands 0.3016.Finland 0.3017.Portugal 0.1718.Belgium 0.1019.Malta 0.1020.Germany -0.07

Regional Urban Mobility Stress

1.Czech Republic 1.50Romania1.50Slovak Republic 1.502.Slovenia 1.003.Austria 0.00Finland 0.00Greece 0.00Ireland 0.00Italy 0.004.Germany -1.00Malta -1.005.Denmark -1.50France -1.50Hungary -1.50Portugal -1.50Spain -1.506.Belgium -2.00Sweden -2.00United Kingdom -2.007.Netherlands -3.00

Mobility Health Check

1.Germany 0.742.France 0.323.Italy -0.054.United Kingdom -0.115.Portugal -0.246.Finland -0.307.Netherlands -0.438.Sweden -0.479.Belgium -0.5710.Denmark -0.8111.Greece -0.8212.Malta -0.8913.Austria -0.9014.Spain -1.0715.Ireland -1.5316.Hungary -2.3217.Czech Republic -2.3918.Romania -2.8719.Slovenia -3.5120.Slovak Republic -3.77

Future Mobility Fitness

1.Austria 1.032.United Kingdom -0.053.Belgium -0.084.Italy -0.275.Sweden -0.936.Germany -1.377.Finland -1.468.Denmark -1.589.Greece -1.6410.Czech Republic -1.8211.Slovak Republic -1.9112.France -2.4113.Portugal -2.4314.Spain -2.5415.Hungary -2.7016.Romania -3.1517.Slovenia -3.9518.Ireland -4.0019.Malta NA20.Netherlands NA


Global SNCF Mobility Index Presentation at SPREAD

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