GLOBAL SKILLS IN THE 21 ST CENTURY
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THE THE CHANGING FACE CHANGING FACE OF OF WISCONSIN’S WISCONSIN’S WORKFORCE WORKFORCE January 26, 2009 Careers Conference 2009 1 GLOBAL SKILLS GLOBAL SKILLS IN THE IN THE 21 21 ST ST CENTURY CENTURY Dennis K. Winters Chief, Office of Economic Advisors Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development January 26, 2009 Careers Conference 2009
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GLOBAL SKILLS IN THE 21 ST CENTURY. Careers Conference 2009. Dennis K. Winters Chief, Office of Economic Advisors Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development. January 26, 2009. WISCONSIN’S WORKFORCE GROWTH BECOMES FLAT. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, OEA. QUANTITY. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of GLOBAL SKILLS IN THE 21 ST CENTURY
THE THE CHANGING FACE CHANGING FACE
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GLOBAL SKILLS GLOBAL SKILLS IN THEIN THE
2121STST CENTURY CENTURY
Dennis K. WintersChief, Office of Economic AdvisorsWisconsin Department of Workforce Development
January 26, 2009
Careers Conference
2009
THE THE CHANGING FACE CHANGING FACE
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WISCONSIN’S WORKFORCE GROWTHBECOMES FLAT
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, OEA
Wisconsin Population and Labor Force
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
( x 1
000
)
POPULATION
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE
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QUANTITY
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BLS RAISED LFPR FOR THE FUTUREPARTICULARLY FOR OLDER COHORTS
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of the Census, OEA
Changes in LFPR by Age Cohort
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
16-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+
Constant2000201020202030
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WISCONSIN’S WORKFORCE HIGHER LFPRs OFFER LIMITED GAINS
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, OEA
Worker Difference from Census 2000
(20,000)
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2010 2010 2020 2020 2030 2030
New BLS Plus 3% New BLS Plus 3% New BLS Plus 3%
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LITTLE CHANGES EVEN WITH HIGHER LFPRRETIREMENTS SWAMP PARTICIPATION
Source: Bureau of the Census, DOA, OEA
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
PopulationLabor force base caseBLS prj. changeElevated LFPR of 3 percentage points
Wisconsin labor force: historic and projected
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NO NEED TO POSTPONE ATTRACTION PLANSIT IS ALREADY HAPPENING
Source: Bureau of the Census, OEA
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Mill
ion
s Civ. non-insti PopLabor force
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QUALITY
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Source: Autor, Levy and Murnane, 2003.
Nonroutine manual
Routine cognitive
Routine manual
Nonroutine analytic.
Nonroutine interactive
WORKPLACE REQUIREMENTSCHANGES IN SKILLS USED AT WORK*
Source: K-12 Education and Economic Summit presentation by Alan B. Krueger, Princeton University
* Based on the Dictionary of Occupational Titles
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Entry level jobs with family supporting wages and advancement opportunities require same knowledge foundation and skill set as those entering post-secondary education.
• Advanced reading
• Advanced writing
• Advanced mathematics (Algebra II)
Fastest growing occupations earning greater than $30,000 per year, require some post-secondary education.
EQUAL SKILLS NOW REQUIREDNO TWO-TRACKING
Source: Achieve, Inc, OEA.
THE THE CHANGING FACE CHANGING FACE
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EDUCATION INCLINATIONGAINS LIMITED AT BEST
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YOUNG MALESARE AT RISK
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ACHIEVEMENT GAPESTABLISHED EARLY
Source: Prof. James Heckman, Nobel Laureate, University of Chicago
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ACHIEVEMENT GAPDEPENDENT ON THE MOTHER’S EDUCATION
Source: Prof. James Heckman, Nobel Laureate, University of Chicago
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POVERTY v. EDUCATIONUSE THE CORRECT POLICIES
Ed ≠ f (Poverty)
Poverty = f (Education)
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HUGE RETURN ON INVESTMENTHIGH/SCOPE PERRY PRESCHOOL
$15,
166
$0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000
Costs
Benefits
Total return = $258,888; $17.07 per dollar invested: $12.90 to the public, $4.17 to participants
Welfare Education Earnings Taxes paid Crime
(Per participant in 2000 constant dollars discounted 3% annually)
Larry Schweinhart, Larry Schweinhart, High/Scope Educational Research Foundation, High/Scope Educational Research Foundation, www.highscope.orgwww.highscope.org
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STATE IMPACTSBENEFICIAL AND PERPETUAL
Benefits vs. Costs
2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047
$ Yearly Budget Costs
Yearly budget benefits
Graph representative of data portrayed in Enriching Children, Enriching the Nation, Robert Lynch, Economic Policy Institute, 2007.
• Cost bump in 2021 due to higher post-secondary enrollments
• Benefits rise faster after 2021 due to higher earnings of graduates
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Asked what he admires most in Western counterparts, Jiang Jianqing, chairman of China's largest state bank, ICBC, says,
"Innovation. Americans have an endless passion for it. Perhaps in the past, it hasn't been so well regulated, but you can't stop it. It's one of the most important ways to push enterprise forward."
WHAT WILL KEEP US IN FRONT ?INNOVATION IS A MUST
Source: Newsweek, Published January 10, 2009, From the magazine issue dated January 19, 2009,http://www.newsweek.com/id/178810?from=rss
