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Transcript of Global Services-22!23!24 Prof. Tarun Das
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Global Services- Lectures 22-23-24Impact of Globalization and WTO-
GATS on the Indian EconomyProf. Tarun Das, IILM, New India.Formerly, Economic Adviser, Ministry of Finance
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Dr. Tarun Das 2
Contents
I. What do we mean by globalisation?
II. Reforms and Extent of Globalisation
III. Macro Economic Impact
1. Sustained Economic Growth2. Improvement in External Sector
IV. Strengths, challenges and Prospects1. Strengths
2. Constraints3. Prospects
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1.1 Globalisation means
Worldwide intensive exchange of people,knowledge, capital, goods and services.
Globalisation helps in integration of theworld, and allows new ideas andtechnological innovation to spread around theglobe.
Globalisation is much wider than aneconomic process and involves all humanrelationships and civilizations.
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II. Reforms and Extent of Globalisation In India
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2.1 Economic Reforms in India
Since July 1991 India has initiated wide-ranging reforms in trade, industry,financial and public sectors.
To improve efficiency, productivity and
international competitiveness of Indianindustries and to impart dynamism tooverall growth process.
Emphasis is on so-called LPG(liberalisation, privatisation andglobalisation).
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2.2 Basic Characteristics of Reforms
Gradual, Step by Step and Evolutionary Appr oach, not a Big Bang, Shock Therapy
or Revolutionary Appr oach
Gener al political consensus
Strong emphasis on ³human face´
Government owns the reforms
No backtracking of reforms
No write-off / rescheduling of external debtPractically no sacrifice made by people
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2.3 Major Reforms for Globalisation
Indian Rupee is fully convertible on current
account, and almost fully convertible for foreign residents.
Market determined exchange rate
Abolition of licenses for foreign trade
Liberal regime for foreign investment andtechnology transfer
Gradual reduction of customs duties
Removal of foreign exchange control
Liberal policy for external commercialborrowing and outward investment
Liberalisation of financial and capital markets
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2.4-A Extent of Globalisation
Average GR in 1990-2002 (%)
Indicators India China
Overall GDP 5.9 10.0
Exports volume 2.6 10.6
Imports volume 4.7 9.2
Exports value 9.5 14.5
Imports value 10.1 12.6
Trade (exports+imports) 10.0 14.0
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2.4B.Globalisation Extent(% of GDP)
Indicators India
1990 2003
China
1990 2003
Merchandise trade
Services trade
15 24
3 16
20 4512 23
Trade of goods & services 18 40 32 68
Private capital inflows 0.6 3.1 2.5 10.4
Foreign direct investment 0.1 0.5 1.1 5.0Official dev. assistance 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.1
External debt 29 18 17 13
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2.4-C Extent of Globalisation
Indicators India
1990 2003
China
1990 2003Mean tariff rate (%)
All productsPrimary productsManufactured products
79.0 30.9
56.2 28.279.9 30.6
41.2 15.3
32.5 14.341.6 15.0Share in world exports (%) 0.8 0.8 3.0 6.2
Inbound tourists (million) 1.7 3 5 36
Outbound tourists (million 2.3 4 2 12
Tourist earnings ($billion) 1.5 3 2.2 20
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2.4-D Extent of GlobalisationTransport in 2001
Indicators India China
Ports traffic (Million TEUs) 2.6 44
Air flight departures (000) 214 841
Air passengers (million) 17.3 72.7
Air freight (billion tkm) 0.5 4.2
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2.5 Mean Tariff Rates & NTBs
Country Mean Tariff Meantariff NTB (% in allCountry 1990 2000 tariff lines)
India 93.6 28.0 5.2
China 46.5 18.5 11.2Indonesia 27.4 14.3 2.0
S. Korea 17.8 7.0 n.a.
Malaysia 14.4 9.4 2.4Sri Lanka 22.2 19.8 4.0
Thailand 42.4 43.7 4.2
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3.1 India emerged as one of the fastest growing economies
in 1990-2001
6.2 6.0 5.9
10.0
7.7
7.46.7
6.5
6.36.8
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
C h i n a
r e l a n
d
M y a n m a
r
U g a n d a
M o z a m b i q u
e
M a l a y
s i a C h i l e
L i b e r i a
D o m . R e
p n d i a
Country
A v e r a g e g r o w t h r a t
e i n 1 9 9 0 s ( %
)
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3.2 India moved on a higher growth path(Real GDP growth rate in per cent)
5.6
1.3
5.9
7.8
5.8
4.0
8.5
7.5
8.5
4.8
4.4
6.16.5
7.37.3
5.1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1 9 9 0
- 9 1
1 9 9 1
- 9 2
1 9 9 2
- 9 3
1 9 9 3
- 9 4
1 9 9 4
- 9 5
1 9 9 5
- 9 6
1 9 9 6
- 9 7
1 9 9 7
- 9 8
1 9 9 8
- 9 9
1 9 9 9
- 0 0
2 0 0 0
- 0 1
2 0 0 1
- 0 2
2 0 0 2
- 0 3
2 0 0 3
- 0 4
2 0 0 4
- 0 5
2 0 0 5
- 0 6
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3.3 Recovery in Industry(Production growth rate in per cent)
0.6
2.3
8.59.1
6.16.7
4.1
6.7
5.0
2.7
5.7
7
8.4 8.1
13.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
1 9 9 1
- 9 2
1 9 9 2
- 9 3
1 9 9 3
- 9 4
1 9 9 4
- 9 5
1 9 9 5
- 9 6
1 9 9 6
- 9 7
1 9 9 7
- 9 8
1 9 9 8
- 9 9
1 9 9 9
- 0 0
2 0 0 0
- 0 1
2 0 0 1
- 0 2
2 0 0 2
- 0 3
2 0 0 3
- 0 4
2 0 0
4 - 0 5
2 0 0 5
- 0 6
%
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3.4 Sectoral growth rates in India (%)Sectors 1980-90 1992-2000 2002-05 A griculture 3.1 3.3 1.2
Industry 7.2 6.5 7.0Mining 7.7 4.0 6.9Manufacturing 7.4 5.9 7.4Utilities 8.9 5.7 4.4Construction 4.6 8.2 6.7Services 6.5 8.3 8.6
Trade,hotels 6.2 8.5 9.4Trans & Telecom 5.8 7.4 13.6
Financial services 9.4 8.8 7.6
Social,personal 6.0 7.4 5.2
All Sectors 5.5 6.4 6.5
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3.5 Sectoral shares in India (% in GDP)Sectors 1993-94 2004-05 2005-06 A griculture 32.9 20.8 19.9
Industry 23.9 19.5 19.3Mining 2.1 2.2 2.0Manufacturing 14.9 15.1 15.1Utilities 1.3 2.2 2.2
Services 48.8 59.7 60.7Construction 5.6 6.5 6.7Trade,hotels 13.8 15.5 16.1Trans & Telecom 5.4 10.0 10.1Financial services 11.5 13.4 13.5Social 12.5 14.3 14.3 All Sectors 100.0 100.0 100.0
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3.6 Trend of GDS as % of GDP
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
1990-
91
1991-
92
1992-
93
1993-
94
1994-
95
1995-
96
1996-
97
1997-
98
1998-
99
1999-
00
2000-
01
2001-
02
2002-
03
2003-
04
R a t i o t o
D P (
)
Household Pvt.Corp Public Total
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3.7 Trend of GDI as % of GDP
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
1 3 5 7 9 1 1
1 3
Years since 1990-91
A s % o
f G D P
Pvt.Corp
Public
Total
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3.8 Trends of Inflation (%) andGR of Broad Money (M3)
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 3 5 7 9 1 1 1 3 1 5
Years since 1990-91
G r o w t h R a
t e ( % )
CPI
WPI
M3
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3.9 Employment growth rate in India (%)
Sectors 1983-1993 1993-2000 A griculture 2.2 0.0
Mining 3.7 -1.9Manufacturing 2.3 2.6
Utilities 5.3 -3.6
Construction 4.2 5.2
Trade 3.8 5.7Trans & Telecom 3.4 5.5Financial 4.
65.4Social 3.6 -2.1
All Sector 2.7 1.1
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3.10 Sectoral Employment as % of TotalSectors 1983 1993-94 1999-2000
A griculture
63.
2
60.4 5
6.7Industry 15.6 15.9 17.5
Mining 0.7 0.8 0.7Manufac. 11.6 11.1 12.1
Utilities 0.3 0.5 0.3Construction 3.0 3.5 4.4Services 21.2 23.7 25.8Trade,hotels 7.6 8.3 11.1
Trans/Telecom 2.9 3.2 4.1Fin. services 0.9 1.1 1.4Social/per 9.8 11.1 9.2
All Sectors 100.0 100.0 100.0
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3.11 Composition of sectoral GDI (%)
1990-91 2002-03
A. Agri l r & alli 8.4 8.9
B. Industr 53.0 46.9
C. Ser i es 38.5 44.2 --Tr ade, hotels 3.9 0.6
--Tr anspor t, comm. 11.7 10.8
--Finacial sector s 14.4 13.6
-- Govt, social 8.5 19.2
D. Total GDI 100.0 100.0
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3.12 Sectoral GDI as percentage of GDP
1990-91 1995-96 2002-03
A.Agriculture 2.4 1.7 2.1
B.Industry 12.1 16.1 10.9
C.Services 9.6 9 10.3
6. Trade, hotels 1 0.8 0.17. Transport & comm. 2.9 2.8 2.5
8. Finacial sectors 3.6 3.4 3.2
9. Govt., social 2.1 2 4.5
10. Total GCF 23.1 26.8 23.3
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3.13 Industrial Growth Ratesby Broad Sectors
Sectors 2002-03 2003-04 2005-06
(Weight)
Mining (10.5) 5.8 5.2 0.9
Manuf (79.4) 6.0 7.4 9.1
Elect (10.2) 3.2 5.1 5.2
OVERALL (100) 5.7 7.0 8.1
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3.14 Industrial Growth Rates
By Use-based ClassificationSectors 2002-03 2003-04 2005-06
[Weight]
Basic (35.6) 4.9 5.4 6.7Capital (9.3) 10.5 13.6 15.7
Intermed. (26.5) 3.9 6.4 2.3
Consumer(28.7) 7.1 7.1 12.0-Durables (5.4) -6.3 11.8 15.2
-Non-dur (23.3) 12.0 5.8 11.0
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3.15 GR of Infrastructure sectors
Sectors 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06
Rail Traffic 5.3 7.5 8.0 9.5
Ports cargo 9.0 10.0 11.3 11.7
Cell phones 21.5 115.1 10.4 38.4 Air-Exp cargo 13.3 1.0 12.6 15.5
Air-Imp cargo 18.6 13.4 24.4 12.3
Air-Int.P
ass 4.8 6.5 14.0 12.8 Air-Dom.Pass 9.6 13.1 23.6 22.5
Highways Up, .. -16.6 161 -5.9
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3.16 Average Growth rates in India(per cent)
Decade Services Servicesexports imports
1950s 4.5 1.9
1960s 0.0 1.11970s 22.7 17.6
1980s 4.4 8.8
1990s 17.7 17.0
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3.17 Composition of service exportsof India (per cent)
Period Travel Trans Insurance Govt Misc1950s 8.6 32.9 7.7 23.4 27.31960s 10.5 34.6 5.2 29.7 19.91970s 25.5 37.3 4.7 10.8 21.81980s 5.9 17.1 2.4 3.1 41.11990s 33.0 20.3 2.3 1.8 42.6
2000-01 21.5 12.6 1.7 4.0 60.32005-06 12.9 10.4 1.7 0.5 74.5
Note: Misc includes business, professional,financial, software and other modern services.
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3.18 Composition of service importsof India (per cent)
Period Travel Trans Insurance Govt Misc1950s 18.3 22.6 6.7 22.6 29.81960s 9.5 29.5 2.4 16.9 39.01970s 7.5 36.9 1.1 9.4 40.8
1980s 11.8 31.5 0.5 4.2 49.61990s 14.6 30.6 0.3 2.7 49.82005-06 12.7 14.6 1.9 0.9 69.9Note: Misc includes business, financial, software
and other modern services.
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3.19 Impact on Financial Sectors
Item Mar-96 Mar-98 Mar-06
1.No.of foreign banks 33 42 292.New private banks 9 9 8
3.Gross NP A ratio 24.8 16.0 3.2
4.Net NP A s ratio 10.7 8.2 1.0
5.Op. profits ratio 1.6 1.8 2.16.Net profits ratio 0.2 0.8 0.9
7.CR A R (Cap.adequacy ratio) No. of Banks
-- Below 9% 316
3-- 9 to 10% 10 16 3
-- A bove 10% 43 71 79
8.Number of banks 84 93 85
.
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3.20 Impr ovement inHuman Development
Poverty ratio declined:
from 39% in 1987-88 to 36% in 1993-94,further to 26% in 1999-2000.
Infant Mortality rate declined:from 94 in 1988 to 70 in 2001
Literacy rate improved:
from 52% in 1991 to 65% in 2001
Real wages for farm labour had anincreasing trend in 1990s.
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4 Significant Improvement
in External Sector
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4.1 Manageable Curr ent AccountBalance on Exter nal Sector (as % of GDP)
-3.1
-0.3
-1.7
-0.4
-1.0
-1.7
-1.2-1.4
-1.0 -1.0
-0.5
0.7
1.2
2.3
-0.8
-1.3
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1 9 9 0
- 9 1
1 9 9 1
- 9 2
1 9 9 2
- 9 3
1 9 9 3
- 9 4
1 9 9 4
- 9 5
1 9 9 5
- 9 6
1 9 9 6
- 9 7
1 9 9 7
- 9 8
1 9 9 8
- 9 9
1 9 9 9
- 0 0
2 0 0 0
- 0 1
2 0 0 1
- 0 2
2 0 0 2
- 0 3
2 0 0 3
- 0 4
2 0 0 4
- 0 5
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- 0 6
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4.2 Acceleration inExport Growth Rate
9.0
-1.5
3.8
2018.4
20.8
5.3 4.6
-5.1
10.8
21
-1.6
20.321.1
23.9
27.5
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
1 9 9 0
- 9 1
1 9 9 1 - 9 2
1 9 9 2
- 9 3
1 9 9 3
- 9 4
1 9 9 4
- 9 5
1 9 9 5
- 9 6
1 9 9 6
- 9 7
1 9 9 7 -
9 8
1 9 9 8
- 9 9
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- 0 0
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- 0 1
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2 0 0 2
- 0 3
2 0 0 3
- 0 4
2 0 0 4
- 0 5
2 0 0 5
- 0 6
.
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4.3 Steady Increase inExport/GD P ratios (per cent)
5.8
6.97.3
8.3 8.39.1 8.9 8.7
8.3 8.4
9.99.4
10.6 10.8
11.8
13.1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1 9 9 0
- 9 1
1 9 9 1
- 9 2
1 9 9 2
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1 9 9 3
- 9 4
1 9 9 4
- 9 5
1 9 9 5
- 9 6
1 9 9 6
- 9 7
1 9 9 7
- 9 8
1 9 9 8
- 9 9
1 9 9 9
- 0 0
2 0 0 0
- 0 1
2 0 0 1
- 0 2
2 0 0 2
- 0 3
2 0 0 3
- 0 4
2 0 0 4
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2 0 0 5
- 0 6
i n
U S
$
b i l l i o n
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4.4 Stability inExport/Import ratios
66.2
86.7
77.6
84.8
74.8 7469.7 69.7 72.1
67.8
78 7983 81
69 67
0
10
20
30
4050
60
70
80
90100
1 9 9 0
- 9 1
1 9 9 2
- 9 3
1 9 9 4
- 9 5
1 9 9 6
- 9 7
1 9 9 8
- 9 9
2 0 0 0
- 0 1
2 0 0 2
- 0 3
2 0 0 4
- 0 5
i n
U S
$
b i l l i o n
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4.5 Steady Incr ease inImpor t/GDP Ratios (per cent)
8.87.9
9.6
11.112.3 12.7 12.5 12.5
11.512.4 12.7
11.812.8 13.3
17.1
19.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 9 9 0
- 9 1
1 9 9 1
- 9 2
1 9 9 2
- 9 3
1 9 9 3
- 9 4
1 9 9 4
- 9 5
1 9 9 5
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1 9 9 6
- 9 7
1 9 9 7
- 9 8
1 9 9 8
- 9 9
1 9 9 9
- 0 0
2 0 0 0
- 0 1
2 0 0 1
- 0 2
2 0 0 2
- 0 3
2 0 0 3
- 0 4
2 0 0 4
- 0 5
2 0 0 5
- 0 6
i n
U S
$
b i l l i o n
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4.6 Significant Impr ovement inInvisibles/GDP Ratios (per cent)
-0.1
0.7 0.6
1.1
1.81.6
2.72.4
2.2
3
2.2
3.13.3
4.34.5
5.1
-1
0
1
2
3
5
1 0 -
1
1 1 -
2
1 2 -
3
1 3 -
1
-5
1 5 -
1
-7
1 7 -
1
-
1
- 0 0
2 0 0 0
- 0 1
2 0 0 1
- 0 2
2 0 0 2
- 0 3
2 0 0 3
- 0
2 0 0
- 0 5
2 0 0 5
- 0
i n
U S
$
b i l l i o
n
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4.7 Substantial incr ease in For eignInvestment Inflows (US$ billion)
0.1 0.10.6
4.25.1 4.9
6.05.4
2.3
5.15.9
6.7
4.6
14.8
12.5
18.2
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1 9 9 0 - 9 1
1 9 9 1 - 9 2
1 9 9 2
- 9 3
1 9 9 3
- 9 4
1 9 9 4
- 9 5
1 9 9 5
- 9 6
1 9 9 6 - 9 7
1 9 9 7 -
9 8
1 9 9 8
- 9 9
1 9 9 9
- 0 0
2 0 0 0 - 0 1
2 0 0 1 - 0 2
2 0 0 2
- 0 3
2 0 0 3
- 0 4
2 0 0 4
- 0 5
2 0 0 5
- 0 6
i n
U S $
b i l l i o n
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4.8 FDI Outstanding (%)
Sectors Aug 1991 Aug 20031. Plantation & agriculture 9.5 1.42. Mining 0.3 0.1
3. Power 0.1 16.54. Manufacturing 84.9 50.4
5. Services 5.2 32.4a)Financial & real estate na 6.4b)Telecommunications na 19.8
c) Transport na 1.9
d)Hotels and retail trade na 2.7
e)Others na 1.6Total 100 100
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4.9 Significant r eduction in Exter nalDebt Ser vice Ratio (at end Mar ch)
(% of gr oss curr ent r eceipts)
35.3
30.2
27.525.4 25.9 26.2
23.0
19.5 18.817.1 16.2
13.4
15.8
5.9
9.7
05
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1 9 9 1
1 9 9 2
1 9 9 3
1 9 9 4
1 9 9 5
1 9 9 6
1 9 9 7
1 9 9 8
1 9 9 9
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 1
2 0 0 2
2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4
2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6
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4.10 Reduction in Concessional to TotalExter nal Debt Ratio (end Mar ch)
45.9 44.8 44.5 44.4 45.3 4542.3
39.5 38.5 38.9
35.5 36.0 36.8 36.4 35.5 34.5
05
10
15
20
2530
35
40
45
50
1 9 9 1
1 9 9 3
1 9 9 5
1 9 9 7
1 9 9 9
2 0 0 1
2 0 0 3
2 0 0 5
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3.0
3.2
2.7
1.3 1.31.4
1.8
1.3
1.00.9
0.8
0.6
0.9
0.7 0.65 0.6
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
4 4
4.11 Reduction in Shor t Ter m Debtto GDP Ratio (end Mar ch)
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10.2
8.3
7.0
3.94.3
5.4
7.2
5.4
4.44.0
3.6
2.8
4.44
6.1
7
4
4 5 4 5
4.12 Reduction in Shor t Ter m Debt toTotal Exter nal Debt Ratio (end Mar ch)
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382
126
98
24 21 30 30 19 15 11 9 5 6 6 5 4
4
4
4 6 4 6
4.13 Reduction in Shor t Ter m Debt toTotal For eign Exch. Ratio (end Mar ch)
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5.8 9.2 9.819.3
25.2 26.4 29.432.5
38.042.3
55
76
113
146
159167
21.7
4 7 4
Y
i n
U S
$
b i l l i o n
4.14 Substan tial Build-up o f Fo r eign Exchange Reser ves (end-Mar ch)
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2.5
5.3 4.9
8.6 8.4
6.5 6.98.2 8.2 8.6
11.3
13.8
18
16
11
6
2
4
8
2
4
82
2 2
4 4
8 8
2 2
2
2 2 2
4
2 4 2
i n
U S
$
b i l l i o
n
4.15 S teady Impr ovemen t in Impor t Cover o f FER (No . o f mon ths) (end-Mar ch)
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V Strengths, Challengesand Prospects
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5.1 Strengths of Indian Economy Fourth largest economy in terms of PPP-
adjusted GDP after US A , China and Japan Largest pool of technical manpower
Demographic Dividends- Largest share of
working population Largest English speaking population
Huge domestic market
Rich natural resources, well establishedfinancial system, wide spreadinfrastructure, dynamic private sector
5 2 C t i t t G th d
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5.2 Constraints to Growth andCompetitiveness- Domestic
Growing infrastructure constraints
High fiscal deficit
High inflation
Low real deposit rates
High energy intensity
Slowdown of reforms
Weak regulatory institutions
Outdated laws on business
Inflexible Land and Labour markets
5 3 C t i t t G th d
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5.3 Constraints to Growth andCompetitiveness- External
Hardening of international prices of oil,minerals and metals
Greater Risk- luctuations of exchange rate,
interest rate, commodity prices, volatility in
capital flows
Money laundering, abuse of capital,smuggling, international terrorism, drug
trafficking, immoral trade Geo-political issues and market risk
Global warming and environmentaldegradation
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5.4 Implications for Business
World is a global village
Knowledge and Information echnology
are the most valuable assets
Wider choice of resources- domestic/foreign, debt/ equity/ portfolio etc.
Management of risk is an important task
Emphasis on public-private partnershipand risk sharing
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5.5 Need to strengthen Systems for
Management information system
Asset-Liability Management
Good corporate governance Assessment and management of risk
Strengthening audit and accounting
Performance AuditPolicy Audit
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5.6 Concluding Observations
India has gained significantly from WTOcommitments.
There had been significant growth of servicesproduction, employment and exports.
India's focus area in WTO negotiations onG A TS should be to provide effective market access to its professionals and skilled labourforce in various sectors and to bring about a
symmetry in the movement of capital andlabour.
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5.7 Concluding Observations
India has comparative advantages in healthcare, software, construction and engineering,
legal and accountancy, and it would beadvisable to negotiate greater market access
for its professionals in these sectors. The availability of market access alone would
not be fruitful if the qualifications to providethese services from Indian Institutions are
not recognized abroad. A t negotiations, it needs to be ensured that
standardization of these qualifications aresorted out to protect our interest.
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5.8 Concluding Observations
Social obligations in the case of services suchas telecom and banking (serving rural areas)and air transport (linking far-flung areas)have to be carefully nurtured.
For effective market access to professionals,India should negotiate for the following: Economic Needs Test should be eliminated.
Social security contributions required fortemporary persons needs to be corrected.
A dministration of visa regimes may be mademore transparent.
Specific sectoral commitments in line withrequirements of developing countries.
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5.9 Concluding Observations
A s the first generation reforms take root andsecond generation reforms unfold, India is
emerging as a favourite destination forforeign investment, and a land of immense
opportunity for all. India should maintain its open door policy ingoods and services production, investment and trade.
Carried to their logical ends, reforms wouldmake India as one of the most dynamic andfastest growing economies of the world.
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6.1 Review Questions1. (a) What are the major indicators of
globalization?(b) How has India progressed towardsglobalization in the post reforms period?
2. What has been the impact of globalization onIndia¶s services production, investment and
trade?3. Discuss major characteristics of reforms in
India since 1991. How have these helped inservices production, FDI and trade?
4. What are the major factors encouragingIndia¶s services production, FDI inflows andtrade?
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Thank you