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Transcript of Global Science and Engineering Labor Force Demand Jeff Wheeler Business Operations Manager Corp Real...
Global Science and Engineering Labor Force Demand
Jeff WheelerBusiness Operations Manager
Corp Real Estate Site DevelopmentNovember 13, 2007
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Intel Confidential
Agenda
• Growth in hi-tech jobs around the world
• Destination of jobs (by region)
• Top 10 destinations for US-based companies
• US trends in engineering graduates
• Trends in semiconductor capital investment
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Intel Confidential
Hi-Tech Jobs Created: 2003 – 2006 (click country or region)
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Intel Confidential
AsiaAsia
Europe/Europe/Middle East/Middle East/
AfricaAfrica
17%17%
73%73%
20032003
AmericasAmericas10%10%
Destination region of job growth: 2003 vs. 2006
Source: IBM-PLI
AsiaAsia
Europe/Europe/Middle East/Middle East/
AfricaAfrica
14%14%
73%73%
20062006
AmericasAmericas13%13%
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Intel Confidential
Czech Rep
UK
Mexico
Malaysia
Singapore
Germany
Ireland
China
India
USA
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000
2003
20032003
USA-origin job growth: Top 10 Destination Countries (2003 vs. 2006)
Source: IBM-PLI
20062006
Canada
Ireland
Brazil
Philip.
Malaysia
Ukraine
Singapore
USA
India
China
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000
2006
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Intel Confidential
Graduates/Enrollments from USA (EE & CE degrees)
Source: Engineering Workforce Commission
• BS graduates/enrollments declining• MS graduates improving; foreign national declining; enrollments down• US and Foreign Nationals rising; divergence growing; US enrollments improving; foreign-born declining
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Intel Confidential
Forecast of BS graduates in Electrical & Computer Engineering (EE/CE) in USA
• Relationship exists between salaries and graduates (Computer Eng & Electrical Eng)
• There is a lag between salary and graduates
• Adding add’l information (workforce trends & consumer confidence) to the Salary information, we have a model with a higher correlation:
– Salary only: r = 0.81– Salary + BLS headcount + Jobs Plentiful
(Conf Board): r = 0.95
• This second model provides better fit and better predictions.
Forecast Error:Salary Only: +/- 5,350Full Model: +/- 3,120
Salary TrendFuture graduate trend shows a steady decline in
graduates from 2006 -2009
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Intel Confidential
World’s Top 20 Semiconductor Capital Spenders
+1 -1 +1 +4 +6 -3 * -2 +11 -1 * * 0 -7 +1 -11 -5 * -2 *
Deltas in position after 2 years shows the intense competition in the semiconductor industry
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Intel Confidential
Appendix
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Intel Confidential
Salary for Bachelors Degree graduates(adjusted to 2005 $)
Source: NACE (National Association of Colleges & Employers)• Focus of this research is on Comp Eng & Elec Eng graduates• Dot Com bubble began divergence in wages in mid-’90s • EE and CE salaries have been declining since 2001.
Dot Com bubble
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Intel Confidential
# Graduates vs Adjusted Salary (lag 4 years)
• Relationship between Graduates & Salary is strongest with 4-year lag in Salary.• Correlation is 0.81 (strong)