Global Risks, Trends, and Water Implications for Climate Change

Lauren Alexander Augustine, Ph.D.National Academy of SciencesOECD High Level Risk Forum

December 2015

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Bottom Line1. Water security affects multiple aspects of

development, security, and economy on the global scale

2. Climate change effects on water and drought are not linear processes, and they can often have unintended cascading effects

3. Strategies for having more positive outcomes for climate change will require multi-stakeholder approaches

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GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDSClimate Change and Water

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Risks and TrendsRisk: an uncertain event or condition, that if it occurs, can cause substantial negative impact

Trends: long-term patterns that currently take place that can/could amplify risks

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Global Risks and Impacts

World Economic Forum Global Risks Report 2015

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Statistics on Water• About 70% of the worlds current fresh water

withdrawals are used for agriculture; up to 90% in the world’s least developed countries

• 1 billion people lack access to improved water today– 2.7 billion people –40% of the world’s population—suffer

water shortages at least one month per year– OECD estimates 4 billion people could live in water scarce

areas by 2050• Water management is strongly related to governance• Water and Energy: US uses 40% of fresh, surface water

for energy production; Europe about 30%; and demand for water for energy and industry is estimated to rise by 70% in Asia by 2030

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World Urbanization 2010-2050

Map: WWF Living Planet Report, 2012

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Water Stress Around the World

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Forecasts for Drought

Map: NCAR Palmer Drought Severity Index 2011.

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In sum“Wet areas get wetter; dry areas get drier.” Don Wuebbles, National Climate Assessment 2014

• Places facing water stress now will likely face more intense water stress in the future under conditions of climate change

• Water scarcity affects several other aspects of the environment, economy, and society

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FOOD SECURITY, WATER SECURITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Inter-related Risks

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Food Security• Agriculture systems strain to meet food

needs today• Compound today’s challenge with a

growing global middle class that seeks a cereal-intensive meat-rich diet, increasing demand by an additional 60%

• Agriculture competes with other uses for land—urbanization, forestry, mining, bioenergy

• Agriculture depends on water

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“A hungry world is a dangerous world. Without food, people have only three options: They riot, they emigrate or they die. None of these are acceptable options.”

~ Josette Sheeran of the U.N. World Food Program

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Water Security and Competition

• Withdrawals of freshwater have increased threefold over the last 50 years

• Water demand expected to rise by 40% by 2030

• Agriculture increasingly uses groundwater supplies for irrigation in addition to surface water supplies

• Water also used for energy production, mineral extraction and domestic uses

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Governance of Water

Who gets the water? Farmers? Fish? Cities? Energy?

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THREE, NO FOUR, EXAMPLESA Non-linearity to Water Security, Food Security, and Climate Change

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Russia: 2010

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Russia, Heatwave 2010• Killed an estimated 15,000 people in Russia• Created price spikes in the international

cereal markets• Sharp increases in wheat prices after the

Russian 2010 heatwave was felt most keenly in North Africa (largest wheat importing region in the world)

• Price of bread was one subject of the initial protests that became the 2011 Arab Spring

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Syria, 2006-2011

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Syria, Drought 2006-2011• Prolonged drought in Syria (linked to climate

change) affected 1.3 million people• Farmers in the rural areas couldn’t farm, so

they went to the cities to find work• Drought was a contributing factor to a rural-

urban migration that heightened tensions in the nation’s cities

• Conflict in those cities erupted, and a civil war broke out, still in progress today

• Civil war has resulted in major migration and the creation of the Syrian refugee crisis

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East Africa Drought, 2011-2012

• Created a food crisis in Somalia, Kenya, Djibouti, and Ethiopia; affected 13 million people

• Included war-ravaged Somalia• An estimated 250,000 people died from the

resulting famine• Some assistance efforts were impeded by Al-

Shabaab, related security risks continue today• Created a humanitarian crisis, including major

migration flows and disease outbreaks

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Fourth Case, Unfolding now

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US Drought, 2012-???• Unclear how long the drought will last• Affects large swaths of productive agricultural

land• Raises risk of wildfire• California’s economy is among the top 10

economies of the world, driven in part by its agricultural production

• How will this drought affect the world food markets?

• What is the role of this drought on US food security and world food security?

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In these cases…• Private sector, governments, and NGO

organizations have/had a role to play in the drought/heatwave scenarios and how they played out

• Humanitarian efforts were/are required to improve health and safety of the most vulnerable

• The costs are substantial in economic and human terms

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WRAPPING IT ALL UPAlmost done…

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Bottom Line1. Water security affects multiple aspects of

development, security, and economy on the global scale

2. Climate change effects on water and drought are not linear processes, and they can often have unintended cascading effects

3. Strategies for having more positive outcomes for climate change will require multi-stakeholder approaches

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As a way forward• Understand the universality of climate-

water issues in our changing world• Consider new approaches that include

1. Better understanding of risks in order to better manage those risks,

2. Developing key partnerships among multiple and diverse stakeholders

3. Avoiding “short-termism” in dealing with the climate-water nexus, since conditions will manifest over long time frames

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THANK YOU!Laugustine@nas.edu