GLOBAL PREMIUM LEADER -...
Transcript of GLOBAL PREMIUM LEADER -...
GLOBAL PREMIUM LEADER
MARCO TRONCHETTI PROVERA
AGENDA
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2012-2015 SCENARIO
PIRELLI 2011
WHY AN UPDATE?
PIRELLI IN 2015
2012 - 2014 TARGETS
RECOVERY PLAN
WHY AN UPDATE?
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From Regional Premium player to Global Premium Leader
We pressed fast-forward to accelerate our 2011-2013 strategic path
New programs to further increase profitability
For the second consecutive year,we hit the profitability target one year in advance
New developments in RDEs: Russia, Argentina, Indonesia
Plan2009-2011
Plan2011-2013
2010A 2011E2011E 2012E
€/bln
Revenues
Ebit%
4.9
8.4%
4.4 – 4.5
<8%
<5.8
~10%
6.3
<10%
Higher cash flow production
2011 MAJOR ACCOMPLISHMENTS
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Accelerating the value strategy 9M11 YoY
Well on track
in rebalancing profitability
among Regions
40%
<20%
>40%
>40%
>20%
<40%
RDE
SOUTHAMERICA
MATURE
9M11 Old plan2013E
Strong increase in profitability (Ebit%)
Premium volumes
Premium revenues
Premium market share in Europe
Premium offering
Push on Winter tyres in Europe
New UHP products: Cinturato P7, Phantom, Winter Ice,Scorpion Verde, P7 Silver, etc.
F1 success (advertising & media value equivalent)
Price/mix
+21.5%
+30%
14% +1pp
~ +80%
~300€/Mln*
+17%
+2.1pp10.6%
22% of Car revenues
>50%
<20%
<30%
2010A
*Full year projection
Trends already identified in 2011-2013 Plan
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2
3
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Wider gap between Auto and Tyre
Growth increasingly driven by RDEs
Premium becoming prevalent in consumer patterns
Premium growth confirmed by Premium car park trend
Trading blocks are back,strengthening ‘local-for-local’ strategies
DESPITE THE CURRENT SLOWDOWN, PIRELLI CONFIRMSTHE KEY INDUSTRY TRENDS IDENTIFIED ONE YEAR AGO
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* November 2010 Industrial Plan **Excluding Mexico
MATURE RDEs
Source: Global Insight, 14 Oct 2011
GDP(trillion USD)
15.1
USA
Old*
15.1
16.8
2011 2015
1.7% 2.7%
15.3
2012
15.5 17.0 3.1%2.2%
yoyCAGR11-15
GDP(trillion USD)
17.9
Europe
Old*
17.5
18.7
2011 2015
1.7% 1.7%
17.6
2012
18.3 19.5 2.1%1.5%
yoyCAGR11-15
GDP(trillion USD)
3.0
MENA***
Old*
3.0
3.7
2011 2015
2.8% 4.9%
3.2
2012
3.2 3.7 4.7%5.3%
yoyCAGR11-15
GDP(trillion USD)
2.4
Russia & CIS
Old*
2.4
2.8
2011 2015
4.4% 4.1%
2.5
2012
2.5 2.8 4.0%4.6%
yoyCAGR11-15
GDP(trillion USD)
4.3
South America**
Old*
4.3
5.1
2011 2015
4.4% 4.6%
4.4
2012
4.5 5.2 4.7%4.7%
yoyCAGR11-15
GDP(trillion USD)
7.2
China
Old*
7.2
10.0
2011 2015
9.3% 8.4%
7.8
2012
7.8 9.9 8.5%8.6%
yoyCAGR11-15yoy yoy yoy
yoyyoyyoy
4.9%
1.8% 5.1% 4.2%
3.1% 8.1%
8.1%3.9%
1.4%
0.6%
4.9% 4.1%
Between 2012 and 2015, ~ 70% of global GPD growth will be drivenby RDEs (65% in November 2010)
*** Middle East North Africa
A SLOWDOWN SCENARIO IN 2012
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Source: Pirelli on Bloomberg consensus and company data
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E
Ebit %
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E
Ebit %
TYRE VS AUTO & PARTS
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2012E 2012E
Tyre players are more profitable andless cyclical than Auto manufacturers
The profitability gap gets wider forPremium Tyre manufacturers
Tyre players are more profitable andless cyclical than Auto manufacturers
Top 10 Tyre Manufacturers
Top 10 Auto Manufacturers
The profitability gap gets wider forPremium Tyre manufacturers
Premium Tyre players(Pirelli Consumer Ebit margin , SR1 for Michelin, PLV forContinental, Nokian)
Premium Auto Manufacturers(BMW, Audi, Mercedes)
3.9% 3.1%
5.3%
1.6% 0.8%
5.3%6.4%
8.7%7.1%
8.8%
5.3% 5.5%
8.4%9.0%
3.8%
6.1%
8.2%
4.8%
1.6%
8.9%
10.8%
12.2% 12.3%13.9%
11.1%10.1%
14.6%15.8%
6.0%
9.3%
9.5%
14.9%
PREMIUM:A GROWING SEGMENT IN THE REPLACEMENTCHANNEL EVEN DURING MARKET DOWNTURN
Source: Europool, RMA, Anip, CRIA, Pirelli analysis
Global Market trend - Passenger Car Tyre Business
YoY trend
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
+2.4% +3.3% -0.8% -2.1% +9.7% +4.7% +3.3% +3.7% +4.2% +4.3%
+11.1% +9.2% +2.9% +6.8% +16.8% +15.8% +9.6% +9.5% +9.1% +8.7%
+1.7% +2.7% -1.2% -3.0% +8.9% +3.3% +2.4% +2.8% +3.4% +3.6%
Total
Premium
Standard
100 102
106 105 103113
118 122126 132
137
111121 125
133
156
180
198
216
236
256
102104 103 100
109113
115 119122 127
Total
Premium
Standard
8
Mln Passenger + Light Commercial Vehicles
Source: Global Insight, Oct. 2011, Pirelli analysis
Non Premium Premium
PREMIUM KEEPS GROWING ABOVE STANDARD
9.6% 4.7%
3.6%
1,0081,086
1,127
2012 2014 2015
9.2%9.4%
CAGR‘11 – ‘15
CAGR*Affected by Governments’ scrapage schemes
14.7% 9.6%
3.7%
1,4021,533
1,602
2012 2014 2015
12.7%14.2%
CAGR‘11 – ‘15
CAR PARK TYRE MARKET
Mln Tyre
3.7% 4.5%
India
China + ASEAN
COMESA
Brazil
USA
Sept. ’11: WTO upholdsimport tariffs on (imposed2009) tyres from China
Oct. ’11: The Senateapproves anti-dumping billlinked to USD/RMB exchangerate (“Yuan Bill”)
Anti-dumping duties on car andradial truck tyres imports fromChina
Sept. ’11: 30% increase of IPItax on imported cars
Asia Pacific: exportduties on Chinese goodsuntil 2018
Sept. ’11 local industrylobbying to reconfirm anti-dumping rules on radial tyreimports from China andThailand
Preferential trading areaforging free tradeagreements with otherAfrican countries & tradeblocks
EU
Lower tyre import dutiesand introduction of quality-based barriers due tolabelling policies in 2012
Russia + CIS Custom duties on tyres:
20%
“…trade protectionism is gaining ground in some parts of the world as a political reaction to current economicdifficulties” (WTO Report on G-20 Trade Measures, October 2011)
230 protectionist measures filed with the WTO during last 12 months (~200 previous 12 months)
Argentina
Jul. ’11
1:1 policy introduction:import and export valuesexpressed in $ must beequal
SHARPER SEPARATION INTO TRADING BLOCKSDURING CURRENT ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN
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PIRELLI BY 2015
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Global Premium: WYZ, RF, Motosport, SUV & Winter ≥ H in Europe, Russia, MEA, APAC, NAFTA, South America
2011 2015Key indicators
Global premium leader
Global Premium* weight on Car business
% Revenues from Replacement 74% 79%
% Revenues from new productionfacilities mix
>43% >60%
% Premium Revenues from RDEs** 19% 34%
% Revenues 50% 60%% Ebit 84% 81%
% Local-for-Local (weighted average by Region) 71% 82%
**LatAm, MEA, APAC, Russia
ACTION PLAN BREAKDOWN
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CONSUMERS Pirelli ranks first in Premium consumer purchases in all Regions.
PRODUCT
Leading in the Premium segments with the complete range: UHP, Winter, Summer, SUV,Run Flat ... to meet all possible requirements ranging from “sporty” to “green” performance(safety, mileage, low consumption and noise)
TECHNOLOGIES
Product excellence is built on technology-driven solutions and an open innovationdevelopment concept including raw material manufacturers, replacement materials, recycling,new mixing processes and simulation models. All this at the speed experienced in F1.
DISTRIBUTIONStronger control of the Premium market (Sell-out Mix / stock and prices) through a straightand integrated “Route to Market” (Pirelli stores, Driver) and digital marketing.
GEOGRAPHICPRESENCE
Strenghten / consolidate our presence and cost competitiveness in RDEs versus the previousPlan: Russia, Indonesia (Moto), Argentina (Truck, capacity for the local market)
PRODUCTIONOUTLINE
Accelerate Premium capacity growth
“Local for local” evolution: new low cost / high mix plants to:
Meet volatility and variety of demand with flexibility (less stock and lost sales)
Reproduce the mix of the Region (lower logistics costs and less stock in transit)
Part of the Plant mission focuses on competitiveness to develop inter-Regional flow of Premium products
Accelerate innovation: rapid deployment of best practices to the new plants.
Industrial efficiency plan and higher flexibility of labour costs already in 2012.
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B
C
D
E
F
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A NEW FAST-FORWARD ORGANIZATIONGLOBAL PREMIUM LEADER
* General Counsel & Institutional Affairs, IR, Com&Media, Culture
** BPI = Business Process Innovation
Opportunities
Fast Plan implementation
Better cohesion,effectiveness & focus
Cross processes along thePremium supply chain (fromproducts to end-users)
Rationale
Elimination of "Corporate and Tyre"
Leaner Management
Clear-cut role definition
Maximization ofmanagement effectiveness
EUROPE RUSSIA MEA NAFTA LATAM APAC
StakeholdersFunctions*
IMAGE&
BRAND EQUITYR&D PROCUREMENT OPERATIONS QUALITY OTHERS
CROSSFUNCTIONS
EXECUTIVE OFFICE
CHAIRMAN&
CEO
BUSINESSUNITS
MOTO
CAR
AGRO
TRUCK
REGIONS
CO
NS
UM
ER
IND
US
TR
IAL
COO
Total Revenues
PIRELLI TARGETS: 2011-2014 P&L€/bln
<5.8
2011E
~6.7
2012E
~7.7
2014E
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Growth rate
5%
CAGR 11-14
10%
o/w Russia JV
o/w volumes
o/w price/mix
YoY
2%
3%
6%
2%
16%
8%
EBIT*%
EBITDA*%
~ 10%
~14%
11% ÷ 12%
15% ÷ 16%
~ 15% ÷ ~ 16%
19% ÷ 20%
o/w Russia 14% ÷ 15%mid single digit
Holding Costs & LTI provisions
Minor Business & othernon-recurring items
(€/mln)
<20
~ -35
2011
< -20
2012
< -10
2014
Including Tyre following the new organization
*After continuous restructuring
o/w Premium 17%20%23%
~ +3%
~+18%
ONE VALUE TARGET
2010 2011 2012 2015
11.5%
17%
20%
29%Pirelli ROI trend
2014
26%
Premium strategy
Efficient cash flow management
Selective approach on investments
12 pp of value increase in the next 4 years
Main drivers:
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Capacity
Mix (mature plants)
Quality (mature plants)
Others**
2011E
Cumulated Capex (w/o Russia)
Premium Capacity Growth (Mln pcs)
Investments by destination (w/o Russia)
Russia
Russia
UPDATED CAPEX PLAN
Old Plan 2011-2015 New Plan 2011-2015
(***) In Consumer Capacity is included Motoradial only
€/Bln
15
New Plan
(*) In Old Plan Russia is assumed to have a JV partnership (in 2013 financial investments only) with 2015 purchase (all data consolidated)
Consumer*** w/o Russia
Russia
Industrial
56
-
5.8
Year End Capacity2010A 2011E 2014 2014/2011 2015 2015/2011(mln/pcs)
60
-
6
71
10
6.4
+18%
+7%
74
10
6.8
+23%
13%
56%
12%
7%
25%
> 0.5
>1.9
+22,5
(*)
+3,5
+26
53%
16%
10%
21%
< 0.6
<2.2
+24
~0,2
+8
+32Total Premium Capacity Growth (Mln pcs)
(**) Logistics, IT, Maintenance, Heath Safety Environment, others
Shareholder remuneration: ~40% distribution of cumulative 2012-2014 Consolidated Net Profit
Dividend policy
PIRELLI 2014 TARGETNET FINANCIAL POSITION & 2015 LEVERAGE
NetDebt/
Ebitda0.9X 0.7X 0.4X
€/mln
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2011ENFP
~0.75
FINANCIAL& FISCALCHARGES
<0.6
OPERATINGCASH FLOW
(1.3)
OPERATINGCASH FLOW
(1.85)
FINANCIAL& FISCALCHARGES
1.3
2014 ENFP
~10.3
Δ PERIMETERRUSSIA
0.3
DIVIDENDS
0.5
DIVIDENDS
<0.6
2015ENFP
2011E NFPBEFORERUSSIA
~0.70
RUSSIA
~ 0.05
Liquidity Position 526
Total CommittedLines Not Drawn
830
1,356Liquidity Margin
LIQUIDITY PROFILE
€/mln
BondCommitted line drawdown Other borrowings
DEBT MATURITY
€/mln
Gross Debt30 Sept.’11
370
500
888.1
1,758.1
486.7
159
500
187.9
207.689
127.9
370
116.7
2011 2012 2013 20142016 &
beyond2015
Additional diversification of counterparties and currencies
Further extension of debt maturities: the sound InvestimentGrade credit of Pirelli will give us the option to further taplonger than 5 years maturities
Cost of debt: ~6.50% p.a. over the plan horizon, due togeneralised spread increases and debt denominated incurrencies with higher interest rates than Euro
65% of the debt maturity beyond 2014
Sept. 30, 2011:
Cost of debt ~ 5,50% p.a.
Gross debt profile ~70% Fixed and ~30% Floating
Main achievements
DEBT AND LIQUIDITY PROFILE
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Situation as of today (Sept. 30, 2011)
Key Messages over the Plan horizon
Strong risk control on liquidity position:
No net credit exposure towards European banks
No exposure to European Government bonds
11.8% 5.1%10.7% 37.4%7.3% 27.7%% of
Gross Debt
A CONTINGENCY PLAN ALWAYS READY TO KICK IN
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Circumstances triggering the plan
Strong car OE order slowdown (-10%) Significant contraction of the truckbusiness (-20% YoY volume)
Sell out drop over 10%
Cash flow will remain under control.Profitability (EBIT margin) will be on the low end of the range.
LABOUR FURTHER ACTIONS TO RECOVERVOLUMES REDUCTION
CAPEX
2012 Priorities
Premium mixworldwide growth
Special projects inRomania and China
Route to Premium inRussia
No major inefficiencies within15-20% volumes reductions
Benefit from lower pressureon raw material costs
Closer co-operation with Suppliers
Reduction of program costs for thegrowth and other discretionary costs
Better product availability to servenew and unexplored channels
11%Temps & agency
5%Overtime
(€/mln)
1
2
3Total 2012
CAPEX
560
Capacity, mix,quality
MaintenainceIT, etc.
Russia 110
70
380
Flexibility: 20% of total capex+
Tight working capital management(below 5% of net sales)
Enforcement of social benefits
This presentation contains statements that constitute forward-looking statements based on Pirelli & C SpA’s current
expectations and projections about future events and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the sale, purchase or
acquisition of securities of any of the companies mentioned and is directed to professionals of the financial community.
These statements appear in a number of places in this presentation and include statements regarding the intent, belief or
current expectations of the customer base, estimates regarding future growth in the different business lines and the global
business, market share, financial results and other aspects of the activities and situation relating to the Company.\
Such forward looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties, and actual
results may differ materially from those expressed in or implied by these forward looking statements as a result of various
factors, many of which are beyond the ability of Pirelli & C SpA to control or estimate precisely. Consequently it is
recommended that they be viewed as indicative only.
Analysts are cautioned not to place undue reliance on those forward looking statements, which speak only as of the date of
this presentation.
Pirelli & C. SpA undertakes no obligation to release publicly the results of any revisions to these forward looking statements
which may be made to reflect events and circumstances after the date of this presentation, including, without limitation,
changes in Pirelli & C. SpA business or acquisition strategy or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.
Statement
The Manager mandated to draft corporate accounting documents of Pirelli & C. SpA. Francesco Tanzi, attests – as per
art.154-bis. comma 2 of the Testo Unico della Finanza (D.Lgs. 58/1998) – that all the accounting information contained in
this presentation correspond to the documented results, books and accounting of the Company.
DISCLAIMER
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