Global power demand - Presentation by IEA Executive Director
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Transcript of Global power demand - Presentation by IEA Executive Director
© OECD/IEA 2011
Global Power DemandGlobal Power Demand
Maria van der HoevenMaria van der HoevenExecutive Director – International Energy AgencyExecutive Director – International Energy Agency
PRESENTATION TO THE PRESENTATION TO THE GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE ELECTRICITY PARTNERSHIP SUMMITGLOBAL SUSTAINABLE ELECTRICITY PARTNERSHIP SUMMIT31 May 201231 May 2012
© OECD/IEA 2011
Electricity demand is growing faster Electricity demand is growing faster than fossil fuelsthan fossil fuels
%Growth of energy demand by fuel, New Policies Scenario
base 100 in 2009
Power demand will grow by 84% between 2009 and 2035, mote rapidly than gas, coal and oil
© OECD/IEA 2011
Electricity demand Electricity demand shows few signs of moderating shows few signs of moderating
World electricity supply and demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario
All sectors see higher demand for electricity, with non-OECD countries accounting for more than 80% of the increase between 2009 & 2035
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
TWh Own Use
Transmission &distribution losses
Other Transport Services Residential Industry
Demand:
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Electricity demand will continue to Electricity demand will continue to grow in all WEO scenariosgrow in all WEO scenarios
Electricity demand in WEO scenarios (2010-2035) TW
h
Source: IEA 2011 – World Energy Outlook
Electricity demand increases by 2.3% per annum in NPS and 1.8% in 450 scenario, leading to a growing share of electricity in final consumption
© OECD/IEA 2011
Demand growth and replacement of Demand growth and replacement of capacity will drive power investmentscapacity will drive power investments
Non-OECD countries will attract 55% of global generation investmentsand 64 % of T&D investments over the period 2011-2035
Investments in new power plants and network infrastructure and in the New Policies Scenario, 2011-2035 ($billion)
30092891
7019
996
638
717
OECD Americas
Latin America
OECD Europe
OECD Asia
Africa
Asia
NetworksGeneration
Legend:
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2 800
2 900
3 000
3 100
3 200
3 300
3 400
3 500
3 600
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Electricity supplied Electricity supplied excl. non hydro renewables
Europe: sluggish electricity demand is Europe: sluggish electricity demand is compounded with renewables growthcompounded with renewables growth
Electricity supplied in OECD Europe (2000-2011)
TWh
Source: IEA
In Europe, ‘residual’ electricity supply (i.e. net of non hydro renewables)decreased by 6% between 2008 and 2011
Renewable generation (non hydro) 235 TWh
© OECD/IEA 2011
Securing power during the transition Securing power during the transition will remain a challengewill remain a challenge
The transition to a low carbon economy may undermine the incentives to invest in new capacity in a timely way to ensure security of supply
Cash flows uncertainty
Load factor and price risk
Prices too low during scarcity conditions
Energy policy risk
Low carbon and peak power plants have stable costsbut uncertain revenues in liberalised electricity markets
Deploying renewables reduces market prices and load factors of existing power plants and thus their revenues.
Local acceptance issues, stop and go of renewables policies and uncertain environmental regulations (CO2) can put security of supply at risk as plants need to be replaced
Explicit or de facto price caps reduce prices during peak periods, reducing revenues and leading to underinvestment
Main challenges of market-based investments during the transition period
© OECD/IEA 2011
468 500
439
339
794743
856
951
6164
587
508
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Electricity Carbon dioxide Emissions Electricity Carbon dioxide Emissions have continued to raise globallyhave continued to raise globally
Carbon dioxide emissions per kWh generated
gCO
2/kW
h
India: 951
China: 743
UE 27: 339
US: 508
Brasil: 64
World: 500
The EU reduced carbon intensity by 100 gCO2/kWh in 20 years but at the global level, it increased from 468 to 500 gCO2/kWh.
© OECD/IEA 2011
Electricity is the cornerstone Electricity is the cornerstone of climate policiesof climate policies
Hydro
Nuclear
Wind
Geothermal
SolarSolar
GtCO2
Share of power generation (%)
69%
8%
A CO2 emissions reduction policy involves a key role for electricity
Carbon emissions per fuel Low carbon technologies Electrification
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Decarbonisation will require to develop Decarbonisation will require to develop all low CO2 technologiesall low CO2 technologies
Electricity Generation in the 450 ppm scenario
-2,700
+2,800
+8,400
TWh
Scaling-up renewables and developing nuclear are complementary if we want to meet growing demand while decarbonising
Source: IEA 2011 – World Energy Outlook
© OECD/IEA 2011
Harnessing high shares of variable Harnessing high shares of variable renewables requires flexibilityrenewables requires flexibility
Variable renewable
power plants
DispatchablePower plants
Storage
Inter-connection
DemandSide
FLEXIBILITYVARIABILITY
System contextDemand fluctuates
Unexpected Outages occur
© OECD/IEA 2011
Thank you for your attentionThank you for your attention
WEB: WWW.IEA.ORGWEB: WWW.IEA.ORG