Global Population. PLANET EARTH OCEAN, SEA Usable Fresh Water.
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Transcript of Global Population. PLANET EARTH OCEAN, SEA Usable Fresh Water.
Global Population
PLANET EARTH
OCEAN, SEA
Usable Fresh Water
Dessert
Not Arable Lands … 5 too ‘s, urban areas and preserves
Arable Land …Must support all of human life
ECUMENE
http://www.worldometers.info/population/
http://www.breathingearth.net/
Ninth
Eighth
Seventh
Sixth
Fifth
Fourth
Third
Second
First Billion
Number of years to add each billion (year)
All of Human History (1800)
130 (1930)
30 (1960)
15 (1975)
12 (1987)
12 (1999)
14 (2013)
14 (2027)
21 (2048)
Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
World Population Growth, in Billions
A.D.2000
A.D.1000
A.D.1
1000B.C.
2000B.C.
3000B.C.
4000B.C.
5000B.C.
6000B.C.
7000B.C.
1+ million years
8
7
6
5
2
1
4
3
OldStoneAge New Stone Age
BronzeAge
IronAge
MiddleAges
ModernAge
Black Death — The Plague
9
10
11
12
A.D.3000
A.D.4000
A.D.5000
18001900
1950
1975
2000
2100
Future
Billions
Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).
World Population Growth Through History
World Population Density
** Exception to sparsely populated regions occurs in South America!!
World Population Distribution and Density
• East Asia- 1/5 of world population here- China
• South Asia - bound by the Himalayas and a desert in Pakistan- another 1/5 of the worlds population
• Europe- population is concentrated in cities - 1/9th world population
• Southeast Asia - 4th most populated region in the world
– ½ billion people– Indonesia most populated country in the region
** 2/3rd of world’s population is clustered into these 4 regions!
• North America- megalopolis AKA metropolitan area
Climate Zones (simplified)
Ecumene, 5000 B.C. The ecumene, or the portion of the earth with permanent human settlement, has expanded to cover most of the world’s land area.
Ecumene, A.D. 1
Ecumene, A.D.1500
Ecumene, A.D.1900
Many Ways of Measuring Population:
Population Density – measure of total population divided by the total land size (AKA. arithmetic population density).
The highest arithmetic densities are found in parts of Asia and Europe.
Physiological DensityPhysiological density is the number of people per arable land area. This is a good measure of the relationship between population and agricultural resources in a society.
Physiological Density
WHICH IS LOW PHYSIOLOGICAL DENSITY; MIDDLE, & HIGH?
AGRICULTURAL DENSITY
- Ratio of the # of farmers to the amount of arable land
Billions
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Less Developed Regions
More Developed Regions
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
Growth in More, Less Developed Countries
Crude Birth Rate (CBR)Crude Death Rate (CDR)
• Crude Birth Rate (CBR) is the total number of live births in a year for every 1,000 people alive in the society
• Crude Death Rate (CDR) is the total number of deaths in a year for every 1,000 people
** Crude focuses on society as a whole rather than a refined look at particular individual and groups
Crude Birth Rates
Fig. 2-8:
The lowest rates are in Europe, and the highest rates are in Africa and several Asian countries. Why?
Crude Death Rates
Fig. 2-12
Because wealthy countries are in a late stage of the Demographic Transition, they often have a higher CDR than poorer countries.
• Natural Increase Rate (NIR) is the percentage by which a population grows/declines in a year
• NIR = CBR – CDR• Represents country’s growth rate excluding
migration• NIR is lower today (1.2) than in the past
– Peak in 1963 of 2.2
Natural Increase Rates
Doubling Time
• The number of years needed to double a population assuming a constant rate.
NIR today (1.2) = a doubling time of 54 years
1963 NIR was 2.2 = a doubling time of 35 years
Natural Increase Rates
• Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the average number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years– Roughly 15-49– Used to measure number of births in a society
• TFR varies between MDCs and LDCs
Total Fertility Rate
Average number of children per woman
4.9
6.8
5.7 5.6
2.42.7
5
2.5 2.6
1.6
World Africa Asia Latin Americaand the
Caribbean
More DevelopedCountries
1965-1970 2000-2005
Trends in Childbearing, by Region
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.
Number of Women 15 to 49Billions
0.62
0.86
1.32
1.76
1.982.06
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
Women of Childbearing Age
Modern Contraceptive Use, Developing Countries
Married Women 15 to 49 Using Modern Methods, Late 1990s, Early 2000sPercent
4
8
20
32
33
43
47
49
57
57
59
64
70
Congo, Dem. Republic of
Nigeria
Pakistan
Kenya
Philippines
India*
Bangladesh
Russia*
Egypt
Indonesia*
Mexico*
Vietnam
Brazil*
* Data prior to 1999.Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.
• Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) is the annual number of deaths of infants under 1 year of age, compared with total live births– Number of deaths per 1,000 births– Highest rates in poorer countries of sub-Saharan
Africa– Lowest Rates in Western Europe
• IMR reflects country’s health-care system– Lower IMRs in countries with well-trained doctors
and nurses, modern hospitals, and supplies of medicine
Infant Mortality rate
Donor Support for Contraceptives and Estimated CostsMillions of US$
Contraceptive Costs, Developing Countries
13211268
12161164
11141064
1014966
920875830
807791773754
919904888873857841
824
203209
176218
1330
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: UNFPA, Donor Support for Contraceptives and Condoms for STI/HIV Prevention 2004.
Total Estimated Contraceptive Costs(including condoms)
Total Estimated Contraceptive Costs
Actual Donor Support
Infant Mortality Rates
Infant Mortality Rate and Total Fertility Rate
6
27
51
88 Africa
Asia
LAC*
MDR** 1.6
2.6
2.5
5.1
Annual deaths to infants under age 1 per 1,000 live births
Average number of children per woman
Infant Mortality and Childbearing, by Region
* LAC=Latin America and the Caribbean; ** MDR=More Developed Regions. Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.
People are living longer than ever before in the U.S., but gaps in life expectancy between blacks
and whites persist.
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
1970
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
White female
Black female
White male
Black male
Years
• Life Expectancy at birth measures the average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels– More favorable in wealthier countries
• 70’s in Western Europe• 40’s in sub-Saharan Africa
Life Expectancy
Life Expectancy at birth
© 2005 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU
Infant mortality for blacks has remained twice as high as infant mortality for whites
since the early 1980s.
0
5
10
15
20
25
1983
1984
1985
1990
1991
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Infant deaths per 1,000 births
• Black, non-Hispanic
• Hispanic• White, non-Hispanic
• Asian
Source: National Center for Health Statistics.
Why does Population matter?
For so Many reasons Here is one you may not have
considered
© 2005 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU
Six of the top 15 energy users are low-income countries.
Total energy use, in millions of metric tons of oil equivalent, 2002
Source: World Bank, 2005 World Development Indicators: table 3.7.
1,228
617
538
516
346
265
250
226
203
190
172
157
156
133
2,290United States
China
Russian Federation
I ndia
J apan
Germany
France
Canada
United Kingdom
Korea, Rep.
Brazil
I taly
Mexico
I ndonesia
I ran, I slamic Rep.