Global mega trends and their impact on business, cultures and societies podcast 2
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1 Global Mega Trends and Their Impact on Business, Cultures and Society Presented by Manoj Menon Partner / Managing Director Asia Pacific
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Transcript of Global mega trends and their impact on business, cultures and societies podcast 2
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Global Mega Trends and Their Impact
on Business, Cultures and Society
Presented by
Manoj Menon
Partner / Managing
Director Asia Pacific
2
3
#1 Urbanization
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Three Main Trends in Urbanization: Development of Mega Cities, Mega Regions and Mega Corridors
MEGA CITY City With A Minimum
Population Of 5 Million
EXAMPLE: Greater London
MEGA REGIONS Cities Combining With
Suburbs To Form Regions. (Population
over 10 Million)
EXAMPLE: Johannesburg and
Pretoria (forming “Jo-Toria”)
MEGA CORRIDORS
The Corridors Connecting Two Major Cities or Mega Regions
EXAMPLE: Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Guangzhou in China (Population
120 Million)
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Smart Cities – “Green” Replaced by “SMART” Concepts
‘S” Governance
‘S’ City Planning
‘S’ Energy
‘S’ Business
‘S’ ICT
‘S’ Mobility
‘S’ Citizen
‘S’ Buildings
These 3 elements Will define the ‘Smart’ Mobility of the future
Smart Diamond to define Smart city
City’s InfrastructureLegend: City’s User community City’s Green Ecology
‘S’ Energy Renewable energy, Smart Grid Infrastructure
‘S‘ City Planning EV Charging, Smart Grid, Bus Rapid Transit, Parking Infrastructure, Congestion Charging
‘S’ Information Communication & Technology Telematics, Navigation, Smart Metering, Internet Technologies
Smart Cities Energy, City Planning and ICT to define the future of Mobility
Sou
rce:
Fro
st &
Sul
livan
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#2 E-Mobility
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E-Mobility : Over 40 Million Electric 2 Wheelers and 4 Wheelers will be Sold Annually Around the Globe in 2020
XM 3000 Electric MopedSanyo Enacle The GEM Peapod The Smith Newton
Total 30 million – 2 Wheelers
(2020)
Total 10 Million – 4 Wheelers
(2020)
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Electric Vehicle Market Eco-System Provides Opportunity to Enter New Fields
Infrastructure supplier
Key Responsibility:
Development of Charging
Infrastructure
Key Responsibility:
Promotion of EV use
Utilities Integrator(e.g Better Place)
OEMs
System/Battery Manufacturers
GovernmentCharging Station
Manufacturers
Integrators to create partnerships with Utilities, OEMs and Government
Supplies infrastructure to distribute their
energy
Cooperation to simultaneously promote EV use and electricity as a fuel
Development of performing batteries
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#3 Social Trends
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Africa Rest of Asia Latin America, Caribbean and
Oceania
North America Europe India China
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
0.360.44
0.14 0.07 0.13
0.330.22
0.37
0.63
0.22 0.13 0.26
0.44
0.51
0.33
0.19
0.21
0.11
0.23
0.47 0.57
0.07
0.47
0.12
0.07
0.22
0.09
0.16
65 Years and Above 35-64 15-34 0-14
Pop
ulat
ion
in B
illi
on
1.69
2.56
2.1
1.2
World Population in 2020: Out of 2.56 Billion Gen Y Population - Around 61% from Asia Alone
Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 and Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations
Note: Gen Y : Population between 15 – 34 Years
2010 2020World Population: Breakdown by Region (Global), 2020
6.83 Billion
7.55 BillionAround 37% of Gen Y Population Will Live in India and China Alone
Around 37% of Gen Y Population Will Live in India and China Alone
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Generation Y: Goods and Services Catered to Values, Beliefs, Interest and Lifestyle
Personalization and
Individualization
Techno Savvy and Connected
24 X 7
Civic and Environmentally
Friendly
Demanding and Impatient – “Fast and the Furious”
Personalized Search and News
Social Networking Profiles
Personalized Products
Gaming Gizmos
Smart Phones
Facebook-on-the Move
Microblogs
Eco- Transport
Bag-For-Life (Paper Bags Instead of Plastic)
Paperless Banking
Instant Text Messaging
Instant Chat
Speed Oriented Gaming (Car Racing)
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#4 Technology
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New Satellites Launched By 2020: Over 900 Satellites to Be Launched Globally This Decade Creating Multiple Innovative Applications
GNSS Enabled Applications:
• Navigation (Civil, Military)
• Broadband Internet and Wireless Network
• GNSS based medical monitoring and drug delivery system
•Automated guidance of machines, real-time structure monitoring, logistics and site management
GNSS Enabled Applications:
• Navigation (Civil, Military)
• Broadband Internet and Wireless Network
• GNSS based medical monitoring and drug delivery system
•Automated guidance of machines, real-time structure monitoring, logistics and site management
By 2020, there will be approximately 927 Satellites (Communication – 405; Earth Observation – 151; Navigation – 85; Reconnaissance – 212 and R&D
75)
By 2020, there will be approximately 927 Satellites (Communication – 405; Earth Observation – 151; Navigation – 85; Reconnaissance – 212 and R&D
75)
Used for Military Communication Applications, air-
traffic control, automated aircraft
landing, etc
Used for Military Communication Applications, air-
traffic control, automated aircraft
landing, etcAutomobile Navigation and Intelligent Traffic Control System Applications
Automobile Navigation and Intelligent Traffic Control System Applications
Galileo - intended to provide more precise
measurements than GPS or GLONASS
China developing Beidou
Galileo - intended to provide more precise
measurements than GPS or GLONASS
China developing Beidou
Commercial market will be driven by
broadcast; Mobile Satellite Services
(MSS); voice and data applications, bundling
IPTV
Commercial market will be driven by
broadcast; Mobile Satellite Services
(MSS); voice and data applications, bundling
IPTV
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Characteristics Service Types Deployment Models
Software as a Service
Platform as a Service
Infrastructure as a Service
A pool of compute, memory and i/o resources, applications or operating environments with seemingly infinite scalability, delivered as a service over a network, be it private or public
Cloud Computing
Enterprise
Enterprise
PublicCloud
PrivateCloud
PUBLIC
PRIVATE
EnterprisePrivateCloud
HYBRID
PublicCloud
COMMUNITY
Enterprise2
Enterprise3
Enterprise1
CommunityCloud
On Demand, Self-Service
Pay As You Use, Metered Consumption
Rapid Elasticity, Scale Up/Down
Shared Pools, Illusion of Infinite Resources
Broad Network Access using Standard Internet Protocols
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#5 Innovating to Zero!
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Possible Zero Emission Technologies in Power Generation - Innovating Toward Reducing CO2 Emissions in 2020
Solar PV Cells
Wind Energy
Travelling Wave Reactor (TWR)Third Generation Bio Fuels (Algae and
Exotic Bio Fuels)
Geothermal Energy
Ocean Energy
To Account for 1,900,000 MW of
electricity production in 2020
Capacity of Solar Power to Increase from 21,540 MW in 2020 to 630,000
MW in 2040
Wide deployment of TWRs could enable projected global stockpiles of depleted uranium to sustain 80% of the world’s population at U.S. per capita energy usages for over a
millennium
Share of Geothermal Electricity in total
electricity produced in 2020 is 1.5%
“INNOVATING
TO
ZERO!”
By 2022, algae biofuels will be the largest biofuel category overall,
accounting for 40 billion of the estimated 109 billion gallons of biofuels produced.
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#6 Infrastructure Development
18DRAFT VERSION
MoscowNizhny
Novgorod
St. Petersburg
Yekaterinburg
Novosibirsk Krasnoyarsk
Irkutsk
Khabarovsk
Vladivostok
Integration of the Trans Siberian Rail into Eurasian Rail Network Will Result in Industrial and Business Hubs Along the Railroad
Yekaterinburg
Severka
Development of Trans-Siberian railroad will have significant socio economic and business impact to Russia
● Astrakhan
Kiev
● Kaliningrad
Minsk
● Helsinki
●
●
ITC North South
Trans-Siberian Railway
Pan European N 2
Pan European N 9
Baikal-Amur Mainline
(Warsaw, Berlin)
(Bucharest,
Aleksandrupolis)
Sredneuralsk
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#7 Healthcare
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Health Economics Dictate a Shift in Spending – Away From Treating and Towards Predicting, Diagnosing and Monitoring
Healthcare Spending by Type of Activity
Predict, 5% Predict, 9%Predict, 22%Diagnose, 15%
Diagnose, 19%
Diagnose, 27%
Treat, 70%Treat, 60%
Treat, 35%
Monitor, 10% Monitor, 12% Monitor, 16%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2007 2012 2025
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#8 New Business Models
1.Pay as you go – Utilitarian, On Demand
2.Co-creation of value;
3.N=1, R=G
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#9 Connected Devices : 80 bn + by 2020
The Home Network Mobility on steroids Internet of things
• 8-10 Devices per home• Universal Remote
6 bn
• 5-6 Devices per individual • Touch as the default input
mechanism
30 bn
• 500 per sq km • Smart cities
44 bn
‘S’ City Planning
‘S’ Energy
‘S’ Business
‘S’ Mobility
‘S’ Citizen
‘S’ Buildings
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#10 Span of Influence increasing rapidly
500 Million+ Facebook users
2 Billion+ photos on Facebook per month
1 Billion+ tweets on Twitter
100 Million+ videos on Youtube
200 Million+ blogs
13 Million+ Wikipedia articles
Time to reach an audience of 50 million
Radio : 38 yearsTV : 13 yearsInternet : 4 yearsiPod : 3 yearsFacebook: 2 years
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Key Strategic Conclusions
1. Mega trends are connected and inter-wined which suggests “synergetic” opportunities between them
2. It is important to understand the eco-system of the mega-trend and the elements of the value chain which have most profitability
3. All these trends are global and have global ramifications thereby offering scalable opportunities
4. These forces are changing rapidly and bringing new competencies into play at half the life-cycle speed of the past decade
5. Organisations’ need “Mega Trend” champions and teams within their organisation structure to best exploit the opportunity
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Contact Details
Manoj Menon directly manages Frost & Sullivan’s business in Asia Pacific. Manoj started at Frost & Sullivan in December 1996 as one of the pioneers when the company was just beginning its trajectory into Asia. He has, since then, successfully grown the company’s presence and business in Asia Pacific by manifold. Manoj continues to drive Frost & Sullivan’s expansion in the region, yielding the highest year-on-year growth to the group’s global business.
Throughout his tenure at Frost & Sullivan, Manoj has consulted on multiple strategic and syndicated projects for leading multinational companies, regulators and government bodies, providing growth workshops and client counsels, among others. He is today one of the region’s most sought-after speakers and thought leaders, wherein his expert opinions have been heard at seminars and industry conferences globally. Manoj is also frequently featured in leading media, namely CNN, Bloomberg, Channel News Asia, CNBC, BBC, Singapore Business Times and Straits Times, and Malaysian Business. He earned his Bachelor of Engineering at Mumbai University, and MBA at the ICFAI Business School in India. He is also a Chartered Financial Analyst.
For any other enquiries, email us: [email protected]
Manoj Menon Partner & Managing Director, Asia Pacific Frost & Sullivan
