Global Markets Roundup Assets Performance (in $) Number of ... · Emerging Markets Equities...
Transcript of Global Markets Roundup Assets Performance (in $) Number of ... · Emerging Markets Equities...
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-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Gold
Oil
Global Corp Bonds
Global Gov Bonds
EquitiesEmerging Markets
EquitiesDeveloped Markets
Year-to-Date Since October 1st
Assets Performance (in $)
Source: NBG Research, Bloomberg
%-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Jan-
17
Mar
-17
May
-17
Jul-
17
Sep-
17
Nov
-17
Jan-
18
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-
18
Sep-
18
Nov
-18
Jan-
19
Mar
-19
May
-19
Jul-
19
Sep-
19
# of Central Banks
Rising Rates
Cutting Rates
Number of G20 Central Banks Rising/Cutting Rates
Source: NBG Research, Bank of England Monetary Policy Report
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N A T I O N A L B A N Κ
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Global Markets Roundup
National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | November 19, 2019
Trade news flows continue to shape risk-sentiment, with attention now turning to November PMIs
Ilias TsirigotakisAC
Head of Global
Markets Research
210-3341517
Panagiotis Bakalis
210-3341545
Vasiliki Karagianni
210-3341548
Table of Contents
Overview_p1
Economics & Markets_p2,3 Outlook_p4
Forecasts_p5 Event Calendar_p6
Markets Monitor_p7
ChartRoom_p8,9
Market Valuation_p10,11
US Equities continued to rise, with the S&P 500 Index (SPX) at 3120. However, the reflation trade,
that has supported risk assets since early October, weakened in the past week, with Emerging
Market equities down by 1.5% and Speculative Grade corporate spreads increasing. Government
Bond yields declined in core markets, while euro area periphery bond spreads widened across the
board (see Markets).
Risk appetite was curbed by weaker-than-expected Chinese data and trade news. Indeed, October
high-frequency Chinese economic indicators disappointed (see Economics). As Chinese real GDP
growth oscillates around 6%, the Government may respond with modest infrastructure, fiscal and
monetary easing. Indeed, the PBOC surprised markets on Monday, when it cut a key rate slightly (by
5 bps to 2.5%) for the first time since 2015. At the same time, in the past week, President Trump
threatened to raise tariffs significantly on China if a trade agreement was not reached.
Having said that, the US and China plan to conclude their “in depth” talks in the coming weeks, in
order to finalize the “Phase one” agreement reached on October 11th. Such an event would suggest
a low probability of re-escalation in trade tensions, at least until the November 2020 US Presidential
Elections. Recall that the weighted average tariff rate on bilateral trade has increased from 3% to
16% (imports from China) and from 7% to 22% (imports from the US).
The global monetary easing cycle (initiated in July) resulted in a considerable number of G20 central
banks cutting policy interest rates (see graph below). As monetary policy affects the economy with a
time lag, the easing of financial conditions during 2019 is expected to support economic activity
during 2020, despite the fact that the Federal Reserve and the ECB are likely to remain on hold.
Following gains of 20% year-to-date, the MSCI AC World Index trades on a forward P/E ratio of
15.7x, modestly above (+14% or +1.1 STDEV) its 2004-2019 average. Regional differences are
significant, with the US equity market appearing the most expensive (+18% or 1.4 STDEV above
average, while Japan, EMEA and the UK are the preferred value trades based on P/E metrics (see
graphs page 3).
Rising bond yields since early October, with the BBG/Barclays Global Government Bond yield up by
15 bps to 0.9%, did little to curtail the equity rally, as the yield increase mainly reflected better
prospects for the global economy (from a low base), alongside declining expectations for additional
central bank easing.
Higher yields should not impede the equity market rising as long as trade tensions continue to de-
escalate and global growth bottoms out as expected. The correlation between changes in 10-Year
US Treasury yields and the SPX 12-month forward P/E is positive, explaining 35% of the P/E variance
according to our calculations (see graph page 3). A negative scenario for equities includes: i) a
renewed escalation in trade tensions; and ii) political woes, including Trump’s impeachment probe,
Hong Kong, Brexit and Italian politics, resulting in safe-haven demand bids for Government bonds.
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NBG Global Markets Roundup | Economics & Markets Section
National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | Global Markets Analysis
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US retail sales increased at a healthy pace entering Q4
US nominal retail sales performed broadly as expected in
October. Specifically, in value terms, the so-called “control group”,
as it feeds into the calculation for GDP (i.e., excluding autos, gas,
food services and building materials) rose by 0.3% mom,
compared with a downwardly revised (by 0.1 pp) -0.1% mom in
September, in line with consensus estimates. Annual growth stood
at 4.2% yoy, a still robust reading, albeit having decelerated
compared with a peak of +5.1% yoy in August. Overall, private
consumption appears set to maintain healthy growth in the current
quarter, supported, inter alia, by firm labor market conditions,
albeit the pace of increase will likely ease compared with the
+2.9% qoq saar recorded in Q3:19, probably towards 2% qoq saar.
The decline in US manufacturing output continues
US industrial production was subdued in October, with the
annual pace of growth at -1.1% yoy, a 3–year low. More
importantly, the less volatile manufacturing production (75% of
total) declined by 0.6% mom, largely in line with consensus
estimates (-0.5% mom in September). It should also be noted that
the decline in October was mostly due to the strike by the United
Auto Workers union (which began in mid-September and ended
late in October -- output of motor vehicles and parts fell by 7.1%
mom). Nevertheless, manufacturing production excluding motor
vehicles and parts was also weak (-0.1% mom). The annual pace of
growth for manufacturing production stood at -1.5% yoy, the
weakest outcome since December 2015 and well below a peak of
+3.5% yoy in September 2018. Overall, business investment is
expected to remain subdued in the current quarter, following two
consecutive quarters of decline (by -2% qoq saar on average).
US core inflation was modestly below expectations in
October
Headline CPI accelerated by 0.1 pp to 1.8% yoy in October,
mainly due to an increase in food prices (+2.1% yoy | 1.8% yoy in
September), while the energy index declined by -4.2% yoy
compared with -4.7% yoy in September. Core CPI declined by 0.1
pp to 2.3% yoy (0.2% mom vs 0.1% mom in September), below
consensus estimates for an unchanged outcome. The weakness
was mainly due to the highly volatile categories of apparel (-2.3%
yoy vs -0.3% in September) and used cars and trucks (+1.4% yoy vs
+2.6% yoy in September). Note that Fed Chair Powell, in his
Congressional testimony, stated that a return of inflation to near
the central bank’s symmetric 2% target is likely, albeit “persistent
below-target inflation could lead to an unwelcome downward slide
in longer-term inflation expectations”. The PCE deflator in
September (the Fed’s preferred measure for gauging inflationary
pressures) stood at 1.3% yoy and the core figure at 1.7% yoy.
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, PCE growth is
expected to increase to 1.4% yoy in October and its core
counterpart to remain broadly stable at 1.7% yoy.
Japanese GDP growth was weaker than expected in Q3
Japanese GDP increased by 0.2% qoq saar in Q3:19, below
consensus estimates for 0.9%. Nevertheless, on the back of
strong expansion in the previous three quarters (+1.8% qoq saar
on average from Q4:18 to Q2:19), annual growth stood at a
satisfactory 1.4% yoy in Q3:19 from +0.8% yoy in Q2:19. The
modest disappointment compared with expectations in Q3:19 GDP
was mainly due to private consumption that increased by 1.4%
qoq saar (0.8 pps contribution to the headline figure | +2.4% qoq
saar in Q2:19). A larger increase of 2.4% qoq saar was expected by
consensus, supported by frontloading of demand ahead of the
consumption tax hike in October (from 8% to 10%). Business
investment rose by 3.5% qoq saar (+2.8% qoq in the previous
quarter), largely in line with consensus estimates and adding 0.6
pps to overall GDP growth. Government consumption (+2.2%
qoq saar | +0.4 pps contribution to the headline figure),
residential investment (+5.7% qoq saar | +0.2 pps) and public
investment (+3.4% qoq saar | +0.2 pps) were also positive for
overall GDP growth. On the other hand, net exports subtracted
0.6 pps from the headline figure (-1.1 pp in Q2:19), as exports
declined by 2.6% qoq saar and imports rose by 0.9% qoq saar.
Furthermore, substantial inventory destocking occurred in Q3:19
(-1.3 pps to the headline figure). It should be noted that
historically, the GDP components of business investment and
inventories, are meaningfully revised in the 2nd GDP estimate (due
on December 9th), which incorporates much more inclusive data for
the corporate sector. Looking forward, a contraction in GDP is
anticipated in Q4:19 (consensus for -2.7% qoq saar), due to a
fallback in demand in view of the aforementioned consumption tax
increase and natural disasters (typhoons). As a result, annual
growth is expected to ease to slightly below its potential in Q4:19
(consensus: +0.4% yoy | Bank of Japan’s estimate for potential
growth: 0.7% yoy) with Calendar Year 2019 real GDP growth of
0.9% from 0.8% in 2018.
Chinese activity data entered Q4 on a soft note
The latest high frequency activity data came out below
consensus estimates. Specifically, growth in retail sales (in value
terms) was 7.2% yoy in October, compared with 7.8% yoy in
September and expectations for an unchanged outcome (+7.6%
yoy on average in Q3:19). Note, however, that the latest weakness
could, at least in part, be related to consumers deferring purchases
until “Singles Day” (November 11th) -- a day associated with
substantial (mostly) online offers. As the popularity of “Singles
Day” has grown in recent years, purchase deferrals may have been
more profound in October 2019, compared with October 2018,
thus putting downward pressure on the annual growth of retail
sales. More importantly, industrial production growth decelerated
by 1.1 pp to 4.7% yoy, well below expectations for 5.4% yoy
(average of +5.0% yoy in Q3:19). Finally, fixed asset investment
decelerated modestly by 0.2 pps to 5.2% yoy (consensus for an
unchanged outcome). The latest activity readings came in
conjunction with slightly weaker credit growth in October.
Indeed, official total social financing (TSF) rose by 10.7% yoy,
versus 10.8% yoy in September. Bank loan growth was 12.4% yoy
(12.5% in the previous month), while the contraction in “shadow
banking” (comprising mainly acceptance bills, entrusted loans)
continues at a broadly stable pace (-7.8% yoy in October versus -
8.0% yoy in September). Recall that “shadow banking” now
represents 10.2% of total TSF (peak of 15.1% in March 2017).
Overall, the latest data suggest some downside risks for consensus
estimates for GDP growth of 6.0% yoy in Q4:19 (stable compared
with Q3:19). Developments in the trade conflict with the US and
the intensity of domestic policy support (monetary, fiscal) remain
key factors for the economic impetus.
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NBG Global Markets Roundup | Economics & Markets Section
National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | Global Markets Analysis
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Quote of the week: “We see the current stance of monetary
policy as likely to remain appropriate as long as incoming
information about the economy remains broadly consistent
with our outlook of moderate economic growth, a strong
labor market, and inflation near our symmetric 2%
objective.”, Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, November 13th
2019.
Equities
Global equity markets rose in the past week, with most of the increase
occurring on Friday due to positive trade headlines. Overall, the MSCI ACWI
ended the week up by 0.4% (+20% ytd), with developed markets (+0.6% wow)
over-performing their emerging markets peers (-1.5% wow). Russia (-1.3% wow)
and China (-2.4% wow) led the decline, with the latter hit by weaker-than-
expected economic data (retail sales, industrial production). In the US, the
S&P500 rose by 0.9% wow with Healthcare (+2.4% wow) and Real Estate (+1.9%
wow) supporting the increase. Note that Technology recorded strong gains
(+1.3% wow), even though Cisco (-7.7% wow) weighed on sentiment after
announcing it expects its first quarterly decline in revenue in more than two
years due to increasing global economic uncertainty and weaker demand.
Meanwhile, as the US Q3:19 earnings season concludes, with 93% of companies
reporting actual results, 75% have exceeded analyst estimates and EPS growth
stands at -2.3% yoy vs estimates for -3.8% yoy at the beginning of the earnings
season. On the other side of the Atlantic, the EuroStoxx was broadly stable
(+0.3% wow), with Banks recording losses (-1.8% wow). Regarding the Q3
earnings season, with 80% of companies reporting actual results, 58% have
exceeded analyst estimates, with EPS growth at +2% yoy vs estimates for -1%
yoy at the beginning of the earnings season. In Spain, the IBEX35 was down by -
1.4% wow, with the Banking sector leading the decline (-4.7%), due to increased
political uncertainty following the elections outcome. Bankia (-6% wow) and
Caixabank (-5.7% wow) under-performed heavily due to their vast exposure to
the domestic economy.
Fixed Income Government Bond yields declined in the past week, due to concerns over
whether a “Phase-one” US – China trade agreement could be reached as
well as mixed economic data. Specifically, the US 10-year yield fell by 11 bps
wow to 1.83%, while its 2-year counterpart fell by 7 bps wow to 1.61%. Similarly,
in the UK, the 10-year Gilt fell by 6 bps to 0.73%. In Germany, the 10-year Bund
yield fell by 7 bps to -0.33%, while periphery bond spreads over bund rose in
Italy (+11 bps to 157 bps), in Spain (+12 bps to 77 bps) and in Portugal (+12 bps
to 71 bps). In a similar vein, corporate bond spreads widened. Specifically,
euro area HY spreads rose by 10 bps wow to 363 bps, while their US
counterparts rose by 6 bps to 406 bps. In the investment grade spectrum, euro
area spreads were up by 3 bps to 102 bps, while US IG spreads were broadly
stable at 112 bps.
FX and Commodities In foreign exchange markets, the British pound appreciated in the past
week, as developments on the UK political front reinforced the possibility
of a Brexit based on the recent agreement with the EU. Overall, Sterling rose
by 0.6% wow against the euro to €/0.856 and by 1% wow against the US dollar
to $1.29. The Japanese Yen rose slightly (+0.4% against the USD to ¥108.77 and
+0.8% year-to-date), due to increased safe haven demand.
In commodities, oil prices rose moderately in the past week, albeit with
high intra-day volatility due to mixed news on the trade front. US oil
inventories rose for a 3rd consecutive week, by +2.2 million barrels to 449 million
barrels for the week ending November 8th. Overall, Brent ended the week up by
1.5% to $63.9/barrel and WTI rose by 0.8% to $57.7/barrel. Gold prices rose in
the past week (+0.6% to $1468/ounce) benefitting from safe haven demand and
a slightly weaker US Dollar. Note that, since the end of September, gold is
trading in the tight range ($1470-$1510), due to mixed news on trade.
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10
12
14
16
18
20
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24
26
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1999-2019 Current
Source: NBG Research, Thomson Reuters Datatsream, Bloomberg
S&P500 12-month Forward PE & US 10Y Yield
S&P
500
12-m
on
th F
orw
ard
PE
US 10Y Bond Yield (%)
Graph 3.
Graph 2.
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8
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1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
MSCI ACWI Average 1987-2019
Average 2004-2019
MSCI ACWI 12-month Forward PE
Source: NBG Research, Thomson Reuters Datatsream
0,0
2,5
5,0
7,5
10,0
12,5
15,0
17,5
20,0
Current Average 2004-2019
12-month Forward PE across major markets
Source: NBG Research, Thomson Reuters Datasream
Graph 1.
NBG Global Markets Roundup | NBG 12-Month View & Key Factors for Global Markets
National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | Global Markets Analysis
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Eq
uit
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G
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on
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Fo
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xch
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US Euro Area Japan UK
Reduced short-term tail
risks
Higher core bond yields
Current account surplus
▬ Sluggish growth
▬ Deflation concerns
▬ The ECB’s monetary
policy to remain extra
loose (Targeted-LTROs,
ABSs, Quantitative
Easing)
Safe-haven demand
▬ Fed is expected to cut rates
in H2:2019
▬ Mid-2018 rally probably out
of steam
Safe haven demand
More balanced economic
growth recovery (long-
term)
Inflation is bottoming out
▬ Additional Quantitative
Easing by the Bank of
Japan if inflation does not
approach 2%
Transitions phase
negotiations
The BoE is expected to
increase short-term policy
rates assuming WA deal
▬ Sizeable Current account
deficit
▬ Elevated Policy
uncertainty to remain due
to the outcome of the
Referendum and the
negotiating process
Valuations appear
excessive compared
with long-term
fundamentals
▬ Political Risks
▬ Fragile growth outlook
▬ Medium-term inflation
expectations remain
low
▬ ECB QE net purchases
▬ ECB QE “stock” effect
Valuations appear rich with
term-premium below 0%
Underlying inflation
pressures if Fed seek
makeup strategies
▬ Global search for yield by
non-US investors continues
▬ Safe haven demand
▬ Fed is expected to cut rates
in H2:2019
Elevated Policy
uncertainty to remain due
to the outcome of the
Brexit negotiating process
Inflation overshooting due
to GBP weakness feeds
through inflation
expectations
The BoE is expected to
increase short-term policy
rates assuming WA deal
▬ Slowing economic growth
post-Brexit
Sizeable fiscal deficits
Restructuring efforts to
be financed by fiscal
policy measures
▬ Safe haven demand
▬ Extremely dovish
central bank
▬ Yield-targeting of 10-
Year JGB at around 0%
Still high equity risk
premium relative to other
regions
Credit conditions gradual
turn more favorable
Small fiscal loosening in
2019
▬ 2020 EPS estimates may
turn pessimistic due to
plateuning economic
growth
▬ Political uncertainty (Italy,
Brexit) could intensify
Fiscal loosening will support
the economy & companies’
earnings
2019 EPS growth
expectations have stabilized
Cash-rich corporates will
lead to share buybacks and
higher dividends (de-
equitization)
▬ Peaking profit margins
▬ Protectionism and trade
wars
Still aggressive QE and “yield-
curve” targeting by the BoJ
Upward revisions in corporate
earnings
▬ Signs of policy fatigue
regarding structural reforms
and fiscal discipline
▬ Strong appetite for foreign
assets
▬ JPY appreciation in a risk-off
scenario could hurt exporters
65% of FTSE100 revenues
from abroad
Undemanding valuations
in relative terms
High UK exposure to the
commodities sector
assuming the oil rally re-
emerges
▬ Elevated Policy
uncertainty to remain due
to the outcome of the
Brexit negotiating process
Neutral Neutral/Positive Neutral
Slightly higher yields
expected
Higher yields expected
Stable yields expected
Higher yields expected but
with Brexit risk premia
working on both directions
Broadly Flat EUR
against the USD with
upside risks towards
$1.15
Neutral/Negative
Higher GBP expected but
with Brexit risk premia
working on both directions
Broadly Flat USD
against the EUR with
upside risks towards
$1.15
Slightly higher JPY
NBG Global Markets Roundup | Economic & Markets Forecasts
National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | Global Markets Analysis
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2017a Q1:18a Q2:18a Q3:18a Q4:18a 2018a Q1:19a Q2:19a Q3:19a Q4:19f 2019f
2,3 2,9 3,2 3,1 2,5 2,9 2,7 2,3 2,0 2,2 2,3
- 2,6 3,5 2,9 1,1 - 3,1 2,0 1,9 1,6 -
Private Consumption 2,6 1,7 4,0 3,5 1,4 3,0 1,1 4,6 2,9 2,1 2,6
Government Consumption 0,7 1,9 2,6 2,1 -0,4 1,7 2,9 4,8 2,0 1,9 2,3
Investment 4,2 5,5 5,2 0,7 2,7 4,6 3,2 -1,4 -1,3 2,8 1,4
Residential 3,5 -5,2 -3,7 -4,0 -4,6 -1,5 -1,1 -2,9 5,1 2,7 -1,7
Non-residential 4,4 8,8 7,9 2,1 4,8 6,4 4,4 -1,0 -3,0 1,9 2,3
Inventories Contribution 0,0 0,2 -1,5 2,5 0,1 0,1 0,5 -1,0 0,0 -0,2 0,2
Net Exports Contribution -0,4 0,0 0,7 -2,4 -0,4 -0,4 0,8 -0,8 -0,1 -0,1 -0,3
Exports 3,5 0,8 5,8 -6,2 1,5 3,0 4,2 -5,7 0,7 1,6 -0,1
Imports 4,7 0,6 0,3 8,6 3,5 4,4 -1,5 0,0 1,2 1,6 1,6
Inflation (3) 2,1 2,2 2,7 2,6 2,2 2,4 1,6 1,8 1,7 2,1 1,8
2017a Q1:18a Q2:18a Q3:18a Q4:18a 2018a Q1:19a Q2:19a Q3:19f Q4:19f 2019f
2,5 2,6 2,2 1,6 1,2 1,9 1,3 1,2 1,2 1,1 1,2
- 1,1 1,5 0,8 1,4 - 1,7 0,8 0,9 1,1 -
Private Consumption 1,8 1,7 0,7 0,7 1,5 1,4 1,4 0,8 1,5 1,4 1,2
Government Consumption 1,5 0,6 1,5 0,5 1,6 1,1 1,7 1,4 1,8 1,5 1,5
Investment 3,8 1,7 5,1 3,1 6,5 2,4 1,9 24,6 -15,4 0,9 4,5
Inventories Contribution 0,1 0,4 0,1 0,6 -0,8 0,0 -1,1 -0,1 -0,3 -0,2 -0,4
Net Exports Contribution 0,5 -0,7 -0,3 -0,9 -0,3 0,4 1,4 -4,6 3,7 0,0 -0,3
Exports 5,7 -2,3 4,0 1,6 3,6 3,3 4,3 0,7 1,1 1,3 2,5
Imports 5,0 -1,1 5,1 3,9 4,7 2,7 1,6 11,5 -6,5 1,4 3,4
Inflation 1,5 1,3 1,7 2,1 1,9 1,8 1,4 1,4 0,9 1,2 1,3
a: Actual, f: Forecasts, 1. Seasonally adjusted YoY growth rate, 2. Seasonally adjusted annualized QoQ growth rate, 3. Year-to-year average % change
Real GDP Growth (QoQ saar) (2)
Euro Area
Real GDP Growth (YoY)
Real GDP Growth (QoQ saar)
United States
Real GDP Growth (YoY) (1)
Economic Forecasts
November 15th 3-month 6-month 12-month November 15th 3-month 6-month 12-month
Germany -0,33 -0,30 -0,20 0,00 Euro area 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
US 1,83 1,80 1,90 2,00 US 1,75 1,75 1,75 1,50
UK 0,73 0,79 0,78 0,82 UK 0,75 0,70 0,65 0,60
Japan -0,07 -0,16 -0,17 -0,11 Japan -0,10 -0,14 -0,14 -0,14
Currency November 15th 3-month 6-month 12-month November 15th 3-month 6-month 12-month
EUR/USD 1,11 1,13 1,15 1,15 USD/JPY 109 107 106 104
EUR/GBP 0,86 0,86 0,86 0,86 GBP/USD 1,29 1,32 1,34 1,34
EUR/JPY 121 121 122 120
Official Rate (%)10-Yr Gov. Bond Yield (%)
Forecasts at end of period
Interest Rates & Foreign Exchange Forecasts
NBG Global Markets Roundup | Economic News & Events Calendar
National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | Global Markets Analysis
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rat
Tuesday 12 Wednesday 13 Thursday 14
UK S A P US S A P US S A P
ILO Unemployment Rate September 3.9% + 3.8% 3.9% CPI (YoY) October 1.7% + 1.8% 1.7% Initial Jobless Claims (k) November 9 215 - 225 211
GERMANY Core CPI (YoY) October 2.4% - 2.3% 2.4% Continuing Claims (k) November 2 1683 1683 1693
ZEW survey current situation November -22.3 - -24.7 -25.3 UK UK
ZEW survey expectations November -13.0 + -2.1 -22.8 CPI (YoY) October 1.6% - 1.5% 1.7% Retail sales Ex Auto MoM October 0.2% - -0.3% 0.2%
Core CPI (YoY) October 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% JAPAN
EURO AREA GDP (QoQ) Q3:19 0.2% - 0.1% 0.4%
GDP Private Consumption Q3:19 0.6% - 0.4% 0.6%
GDP Business Spending (QoQ) Q3:19 0.9% 0.9% 0.7%
EURO AREA
Employment (QoQ) Q3:19 .. 0.1% 0.2%
Employment (YoY) Q3:19 .. 1.0% 1.2%
GDP (QoQ) Q3:19 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
GDP (YoY) Q3:19 1.1% + 1.2% 1.2%
GERMANY
GDP (QoQ) Q3:19 -0.1% + 0.1% -0.2%
Friday 15 Monday 18 GDP (wda, YoY) Q3:19 0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
US S A P US S A P CHINA
Empire Manufacturing November 6.0 - 2.9 4.0 Industrial production (YoY) October 5.4% - 4.7% 5.8%
Retail Sales Advance MoM October 0.2% + 0.3% -0.3% Retail sales (YoY) October 7.8% - 7.2% 7.8%
Retail sales ex-autos (MoM) October 0.4% - 0.2% -0.1%
Industrial Production (MoM) October -0.4% - -0.8% -0.4%
EURO AREA
Trade Balance SA (€ bn) September 18.7 - 18.3 19.7
Tuesday 19 Wednesday 20 Thursday 21
US S A P US S A P US S A P
Building permits (k) October 1380 .. 1391 FOMC Minutes October 30
Housing starts (k) October 1320 .. 1256 JAPAN
Exports YoY October -7.5% .. -5.2% Initial Jobless Claims (k) November 16 218 .. 225
Imports YoY October -15.2% .. -1.5% Continuing Claims (k) November 9 1683 .. 1683
EURO AREA
Friday 22 Monday 25
US S A P EURO AREA S A P GERMANY S A P
Existing home sales (mn) October 5.49 .. 5.38 IFO- Business Climate Indicator November .. .. 94.6
UK IFO-Expectations November .. .. 91.5
Markit Eurozone Services PMI November 52.4 .. 52.2 IFO- Current Assesment November .. .. 97.8
Markit Eurozone Composite PMI November 50.9 .. 50.6
Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI November 50.1 .. 50.0
JAPAN
CPI (YoY) October 0.3% .. 0.2%
Core CPI (YoY) - ex. Fresh Food October 0.4% .. 0.3%
PMI manufacturing November .. .. 48.4
Source: NBG Research, Bloomberg
S: Bloomberg Consensus Analysts Survey, A: Actual Outcome, P: Previous Outcome
November
November ..-7.3
-
October 0.6% .. 0.5%
NAHB housing market
confidence index
49.6
Markit Eurozone Manufacturing
PMI46.4November 45.9..
Markit UK PMI Manufacturing
SANovember 48.8 ..
Core CPI (YoY) - ex. Fresh Food
and Energy
Consumer Confidence Indicator
November
Industrial Production (wda, YoY) September -2.3% -1.7% -2.8%
Economic News Calendar for the period: November 12 - November 25, 2019
Net Long-term TIC Flows ($ bn) September .. -49.5 -41.2
Industrial Production (sa, MoM) September -0.2% 0.1% 0.4%+
+
-7.6
71 70 71
Philadelphia Fed Business
Outlook5.6..6.0
In the US, the minutes of the latest Fed meeting are released on
Thursday. Note that on October 30th, Fed cut its policy rate for a 3rd
consecutive time by 25bps to 1.5%-1.75%, while Chair Powell cited that
following that, the current monetary policy “is likely to remain
appropriate”.
In the Euro area, attention turns to PMIs for November, as they will
provide valuable insight regarding the current economic momentum.
Recall that PMI Manufacturing remains below the expansion/contraction
threshold of 50 for 9 consecutive months.
In Japan, November PMI manufacturing is released on Friday. Inflation
data for October are released at the same day. Inflation remains below
the Bank of Japan target of 2% (CPI yoy: 0.2% on September).
Economic Calendar
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
Jan
-15
Ma
y-1
5
Sep
-15
Jan
-16
Ma
y-1
6
Sep
-16
Jan
-17
Ma
y-1
7
Sep
-17
Jan
-18
Ma
y-1
8
Sep
-18
Jan
-19
Ma
y-1
9
Sep
-19
Jan
-20
France Germany Euro Area
Source: NBG Research, Bloomberg
Manufacturing PMIs
Estimates
NBG Global Markets Roundup | Financial Markets Monitor
National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | Global Markets Analysis
7
N A T I O N A L B A N Κ
O F G R E E C E
Developed MarketsCurrent
Level
1-week
change (%)
Year-to-Date
change (%)
1-Year
change (%)
2-year
change (%)Emerging Markets
Current
Level
1-week
change (%)
Year-to-Date
change (%)
1-Year
change (%)
2-year
change (%)
US S&P 500 3120 0,9 24,5 14,3 21,7 MSCI Emerging Markets 58577 -1,2 9,6 7,6 -1,9
Japan NIKKEI 225 23303 -0,4 16,4 6,9 5,8 MSCI Asia 866 -1,4 10,4 7,4 -5,0
UK FTSE 100 7303 -0,8 8,5 3,8 -0,9 China 78 -3,3 10,4 5,8 -10,2
Canada S&P/TSX 17028 0,9 18,9 12,4 7,2 Korea 675 1,5 11,7 7,0 -11,9
Hong Kong Hang Seng 26327 -4,8 1,9 0,9 -8,8 MSCI Latin America 95482 -0,6 10,5 10,9 17,8
Euro area EuroStoxx 400 0,3 21,8 13,8 3,8 Brazil 340794 -1,0 18,0 19,4 41,6
Germany DAX 30 13242 0,1 25,4 16,6 2,0 Mexico 40138 -0,5 3,7 4,2 -10,8
France CAC 40 5939 0,8 25,5 18,0 12,0 MSCI Europe 6228 -1,1 17,3 16,6 18,4
Italy FTSE/MIB 23589 0,2 28,7 24,8 6,5 Russia 1324 -1,8 24,6 23,1 38,5
Spain IBEX-35 9261 -1,4 8,4 2,1 -7,5 Turkey 1414560 1,5 13,0 11,0 -5,3
Equity Markets (in local currency)
in US Dollar termsCurrent
Level
1-week
change (%)
Year-to-Date
change (%)
1-Year
change (%)
2-year
change (%)in local currency
Current
Level
1-week
change (%)
Year-to-Date
change (%)
1-Year
change (%)
2-year
change (%)
Energy 192,2 -0,6 5,1 -6,6 -8,3 Energy 198,7 -0,8 5,1 -6,3 -6,6
Materials 263,8 0,0 15,9 8,7 -0,4 Materials 255,5 -0,2 16,6 9,3 2,3
Industrials 275,2 0,7 25,2 15,5 11,1 Industrials 273,8 0,5 25,8 15,3 12,3
Consumer Discretionary 269,4 0,0 20,7 12,8 19,3 Consumer Discretionary 261,0 -0,1 21,1 12,5 19,9
Consumer Staples 245,1 0,6 17,3 9,7 8,0 Consumer Staples 247,6 0,4 17,8 9,7 9,6
Healthcare 264,6 1,9 15,1 9,4 19,8 Healthcare 262,7 1,7 15,4 9,3 20,7
Financials 121,7 -0,5 18,1 7,7 0,7 Financials 123,0 -0,6 18,5 8,1 2,6
IT 295,7 1,3 38,9 27,5 35,3 IT 287,0 1,3 39,1 27,4 35,5
Telecoms 75,8 1,1 22,8 18,1 14,0 Telecoms 79,3 1,0 23,0 18,0 15,4
Utilities 144,5 0,9 14,7 13,6 8,9 Utilities 149,2 0,8 15,4 14,0 10,8
World Market Sectors (MSCI Indices)
Current Last week Year StartOne Year
Back
10-year
average
Government Bond Yield
Spreads (in bps)Current Last week Year Start
One Year
Back
10-year
average
US 1,83 1,94 2,69 3,11 2,42 US Treasuries 10Y/2Y 22 27 20 26 147
Germany -0,33 -0,26 0,24 0,36 1,16 US Treasuries 10Y/5Y 18 20 17 17 77
Japan -0,07 -0,05 0,00 0,11 0,49 Bunds 10Y/2Y 30 35 85 95 121
UK 0,73 0,79 1,28 1,37 2,02 Bunds 10Y/5Y 25 27 55 60 75
Greece 1,47 1,33 4,40 4,58 10,04
Ireland 0,07 0,12 0,90 0,97 3,52
Italy 1,23 1,19 2,74 3,49 3,21
Spain 0,44 0,39 1,42 1,63 3,01 EM Inv. Grade (IG) 159 155 213 188 214
Portugal 0,37 0,32 1,72 1,97 4,78 EM High yield 519 512 586 517 650
US IG 112 111 159 133 152
Current Last week Year StartOne Year
Back
10-year
averageUS High yield 406 400 533 411 504
30-Year FRM1 (%) 4,0 4,0 4,8 5,2 4,2 Euro area IG 102 99 154 136 141
vs 30Yr Treasury (bps) 173 161 183 181 114 Euro area High Yield 363 353 506 434 493
10-Year Government
Bond Yields
US Mortgage Market
(1. Fixed-rate Mortgage)
One Year
Back
10-year
average
Corporate Bond Spreads
(in bps)Current Last week Year Start
Bond Markets (%)
Current1-week
change (%)
1-month
change (%)
1-Year
change (%)
Year-to-Date
change (%)Commodities Current
1-week
change (%)
1-month
change (%)
1-Year
change (%)
Year-to-Date
change (%)
Euro-based cross rates
EUR/USD 1,11 0,3 -0,2 -2,4 -3,6 Agricultural 329 -0,9 -1,5 -7,8 -5,7
EUR/CHF 1,09 -0,4 -0,7 -4,1 -3,0 Energy 475 0,9 6,3 -0,4 23,9
EUR/GBP 0,86 -0,6 -0,7 -3,4 -4,7 West Texas Oil ($) 58 0,8 8,2 2,2 27,1
EUR/JPY 120,20 -0,2 -0,2 -6,6 -4,4 Crude brent Oil ($) 64 1,5 9,2 -2,8 20,2
EUR/NOK 10,04 -0,2 -1,2 4,4 1,4 Industrial Metals 1197 -3,1 -0,3 -2,6 0,7
EUR/SEK 10,66 -0,3 -1,5 3,8 5,0 Precious Metals 1727 0,4 -1,7 19,8 13,5
EUR/AUD 1,62 1,0 -1,0 4,2 -0,3 Gold ($) 1468 0,6 -1,5 21,0 14,5
EUR/CAD 1,46 0,3 0,0 -2,1 -6,5 Silver ($) 17 1,0 -2,5 18,7 9,5
USD-based cross rates Baltic Dry Index 1357 -1,5 -28,5 33,0 6,8
USD/CAD 1,32 0,0 0,2 0,3 -3,0 Baltic Dirty Tanker Index 1119 24,5 -31,8 1,8 -10,6
USD/AUD 1,47 0,5 -0,9 6,7 3,4
USD/JPY 108,77 -0,4 0,0 -4,3 -0,8
Foreign Exchange
Foreign Exchange & Commodities
Source: Bloomberg, as of November 15th, S&P/Goldman Sachs Indices for Agricultural, Energy,
Industrial & Precious Metals, BofA/ML Indices for Corporate Bond Spreads
NBG Global Markets Roundup | Chartroom
National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | Global Markets Analysis
8
N A T I O N A L B A N Κ
O F G R E E C E
Source: Bloomberg, NBG estimates, Cumulative flows since January 2014, AUM stands for Assets
Under Management, Data as of November 15th
Source: Bloomberg, NBG estimates, Cumulative flows since January 2014, AUM stands for
Assets Under Management, Data as of November 15th
Global Cross Asset ETFs: Flows as % of AUM Equity ETFs: Flows as % of AUM
Source: Bloomberg - Data as of November 15th – Rebased @ 100
Source: Bloomberg, Data as of November 15th
Source: Bloomberg - Data as of November 15th – Rebased @ 100
Source: Bloomberg, Data as of November 15th
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
16-M
ay
30-M
ay
13-J
un
27-J
un
11-J
ul
25-J
ul
8-A
ug
22-A
ug
5-Se
p
19-S
ep
3-O
ct
17-O
ct
31-O
ct
14-N
ov
S&P500 EuroStoxx FTSE 100 Nikkei 225
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1400
1440
1480
1520
1560
1600
1640
1680
1720
1760
16
-May
30
-May
13
-Ju
n
27
-Ju
n
11
-Ju
l
25
-Ju
l
8-A
ug
22
-Au
g
5-S
ep
19
-Sep
3-O
ct
17
-Oct
31
-Oct
14
-No
v
Small Cap/Large Cap Relative Performance during the previous 6 months (right)Russell 2000-Small cap (left)Russell 1000-Large Cap (left)
Equity Market Performance - G4 Equity Market Performance - BRICs
Russell 2000 Value & Growth Index
Russell 2000 & Russell 1000 Index
-15-10-50510152025303540455055606570
-15-10
-505
10152025303540455055606570
Jan
-14
May
-14
Sep
-14
Jan
-15
May
-15
Sep
-15
Jan
-16
May
-16
Sep
-16
Jan
-17
May
-17
Sep
-17
Jan
-18
May
-18
Sep
-18
Jan
-19
May
-19
Sep
-19
DM Equities Bonds
EM Equities Commodities% %
92
96
100
104
108
112
116
120
124
92
96
100
104
108
112
116
120
124
16-M
ay
30-M
ay
13-J
un
27-J
un
11-J
ul
25-J
ul
8-A
ug
22-A
ug
5-Se
p
19-S
ep
3-O
ct
17-O
ct
31-O
ct
14-N
ov
Brazil China Russia India
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
16
-May
30
-May
13
-Ju
n
27
-Ju
n
11
-Ju
l
25
-Ju
l
8-A
ug
22
-Au
g
5-S
ep
19-S
ep
3-O
ct
17
-Oct
31
-Oct
14
-No
v
Value/Growth Relative Performance during the previous 6 months (right)Russell 2000 Value (left)Russell 2000 Growth (left)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan
-14
May
-14
Sep
-14
Jan
-15
May
-15
Sep
-15
Jan
-16
May
-16
Sep
-16
Jan
-17
May
-17
Sep
-17
Jan
-18
May
-18
Sep
-18
Jan
-19
May
-19
Sep
-19
US Emerging Markets Europe exUK% %
NBG Global Markets Roundup | Chartroom
National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | Global Markets Analysis
9
N A T I O N A L B A N Κ
O F G R E E C E
Source: Bloomberg, Data as of November 15th Source: Bloomberg, Data as of November 15th
1,08
1,09
1,10
1,11
1,12
1,13
1,14
1,08
1,09
1,10
1,11
1,12
1,13
1,14
16
-May
30
-May
13
-Ju
n
27
-Ju
n
11
-Ju
l
25
-Ju
l
8-A
ug
22
-Au
g
5-S
ep
19
-Se
p
3-O
ct
17
-Oct
31
-Oct
14
-No
v
EUR-USD €/$€/$
Stronger USD
EUR/USD
JPY/USD
Source: Bloomberg - Data as of November 15th
LA:Left Axis RA:Right Axis
Source: Bloomberg, Data as of November 15th
Source: Bloomberg - Data as of November 15th
Source: Bloomberg, Data as of November 15th
-0,8
-0,7
-0,6
-0,5
-0,4
-0,3
-0,2
-0,1
0,0
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2,0
2,2
2,4
2,6
16-M
ay
30-M
ay
13-J
un
27-J
un
11-J
ul
25-J
ul
8-A
ug
22
-Au
g
5-Se
p
19-S
ep
3-O
ct
17-O
ct
31-O
ct
14-N
ov
US (LA) UK (LA) Japan (RA) Germany (RA) %%
1.2301.2501.2701.2901.3101.3301.3501.3701.3901.4101.4301.4501.4701.4901.5101.5301.5501.570
1.2301.2501.2701.2901.3101.3301.3501.3701.3901.4101.4301.4501.4701.4901.5101.5301.5501.570
16-M
ay
30-M
ay
13-J
un
27-J
un
11-J
ul
25-J
ul
8-A
ug
22-A
ug
5-Se
p
19-S
ep
3-O
ct
17-O
ct
31-O
ct
14-N
ov
Gold $/ounch$/ounch
10- Year Government Bond Yields 10- Year Government Bond Spreads
West Texas Intermediate ($/brl)
Gold ($/ounch)
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
16-M
ay
30-M
ay
13-J
un
27-J
un
11-J
ul
25-J
ul
8-A
ug
22-A
ug
5-Se
p
19-S
ep
3-O
ct
17-O
ct
31-O
ct
14-N
ov
USD-JPY $/¥$/¥
Stronger JPY
50
100
150
200
250
300
50
100
150
200
250
300
16-M
ay
30-M
ay
13-J
un
27-J
un
11-J
ul
25-J
ul
8-A
ug
22
-Au
g
5-Se
p
19-S
ep
3-O
ct
17-O
ct
31-O
ct
14-N
ov
Italy Portugal Spain bpsbps
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
16-M
ay
30-M
ay
13-J
un
27-J
un
11-J
ul
25-J
ul
8-A
ug
22-A
ug
5-Se
p
19-S
ep
3-O
ct
17-O
ct
31-O
ct
14-N
ov
WTI $/brl$/brl
NBG Global Markets Roundup | Equity Market Valuation Metrics
National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | Global Markets Analysis
10
N A T I O N A L B A N Κ
O F G R E E C E
US Sectors Valuation
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Hea
lth
Car
e
Uti
litie
s
Re
al E
stat
e
Co
mm
Ser
vice
s
Co
nsu
me
r St
aple
s
Fin
anci
als
S&P
50
0 IT
Co
ns
Dis
cret
ion
ary
Ind
ust
rial
s
Mat
eri
als
Ener
gy
2019
12-month forward
%
1-month revisions to 2019 & 12-month Forward EPSEarnings Revisions indicate 1-month change in 2019 & 12-month Forward EPS
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Hea
lth
Car
e IT
Co
nsu
me
r St
aple
s
Uti
litie
s
Re
al E
stat
e
Fin
anci
als
S&P
50
0
Mat
eri
als
Co
mm
Ser
vice
s
Ener
gy
Ind
ust
rial
s
Co
ns
Dis
cret
ion
ary
2019
12-month forward
%
12-month revisions to 2019 & 12-month Forward EPSEarnings Revisions indicate 12-month change in 2019 & 12-month Forward EPS
P/BV Ratio
15/11/2019 % Weekly Change 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 12m fwd 10Yr Avg 2018 2019 12m fwd 10Yr Avg
S&P500 3120 0,9 18,0 4,4 2,0 1,9 17,4 19,2 17,7 15,0 3,2 3,5 3,3 2,5
Energy 440 -1,3 64,4 -12,7 3,2 4,0 19,9 20,4 17,4 19,5 1,8 1,5 1,5 1,8
Materials 378 0,2 23,5 -16,3 1,9 2,1 16,7 20,2 18,0 14,7 2,6 2,4 2,3 2,5
Financials
Diversified Financials 721 0,3 28,2 5,9 1,3 1,5 16,0 15,5 14,7 13,8 1,9 1,8 1,7 1,5
Banks 361 -1,0 24,6 9,9 2,2 2,7 13,0 11,9 11,6 11,3 1,4 1,3 1,3 1,0
Insurance 434 0,2 33,6 3,7 2,2 2,1 12,2 13,0 12,2 10,7 1,4 1,5 1,4 1,1
Real Estate 238 1,9 5,8 3,2 3,8 3,1 16,7 20,7 19,7 18,2 3,1 3,7 3,8 2,9
Industrials
Capital Goods 735 1,0 15,3 -4,3 2,0 1,9 19,1 20,9 17,6 15,5 4,7 5,4 4,7 3,3
Transportation 789 -1,4 25,0 9,6 1,8 1,9 14,0 14,4 13,6 13,6 3,6 4,3 3,9 3,3
Commercial Services 334 1,6 16,7 8,2 1,5 1,3 22,8 26,9 25,1 19,6 4,1 5,6 5,3 3,3
Consumer Discretionary
Retailing 2383 -0,6 22,4 18,8 0,8 0,8 31,1 31,4 28,1 20,8 10,2 12,1 10,7 5,9
Media 635 1,7 18,7 10,7 0,4 0,4 23,6 25,4 22,1 19,5 4,1 3,9 3,4 3,2
Consumer Services 1230 0,7 16,4 9,8 2,2 2,3 20,8 22,2 20,3 19,1 8,8 13,6 12,9 6,1
Consumer Durables 352 1,4 15,0 -0,8 1,5 1,5 16,7 18,4 17,0 16,8 3,3 3,8 3,5 3,1
Automobiles and parts 118 -3,5 -5,4 -20,6 3,7 4,0 7,8 8,8 7,5 8,5 1,6 1,4 1,3 1,7
IT
Technology 1472 0,5 17,0 2,4 1,8 1,5 15,1 19,2 17,9 12,5 5,2 8,7 8,9 3,5
Software & Services 2215 2,2 14,0 10,4 1,3 1,0 22,5 27,0 24,4 16,9 6,8 7,4 7,0 5,0
Semiconductors 1174 0,0 16,1 -3,4 1,9 1,9 14,8 17,8 17,0 13,9 4,3 5,3 4,9 3,0
Communication Services 178 1,3 17,7 7,9 1,4 1,2 19,1 20,6 18,6 17,0 3,4 3,3 3,0 2,8
Consumer Staples
Food & Staples Retailing 501 0,5 12,1 3,4 2,1 1,7 17,4 22,0 21,2 15,9 3,6 4,7 4,4 3,1
Food Beverage & Tobacco 689 1,2 12,5 -2,6 3,3 3,4 18,3 19,1 18,1 17,3 5,1 5,1 4,9 4,9
Household Goods 714 0,4 9,9 4,5 3,1 2,4 19,3 24,8 23,4 19,0 5,4 8,5 8,4 4,9
Health Care
Pharmaceuticals 922 1,4 8,3 13,4 2,2 2,2 15,1 14,6 14,0 14,3 4,2 5,0 4,2 3,5
Healthcare Equipment 1327 3,7 13,1 16,1 1,1 1,0 18,0 19,3 17,9 15,0 3,3 3,5 3,2 2,5
Utilities 318 1,5 5,2 4,0 3,9 3,2 16,4 20,2 19,3 15,5 1,7 2,2 2,1 1,6
Source Factset, Blue box indicates a value more than +2standard devation from average, light blue a value more than +1standard devation from average. Orange box indicates a value less than -2standard devation from
average, light orange a value less than -1standard devation from average
EPS Growth (%) P/E RatioPrice ($) Dividend Yield (%)
Source: Factset, Data as of November 15th
12-month forward EPS are 12% of 2019 EPS and 88% of 2020 EPS
Source: Factset, Data as of November 15th
12-month forward EPS are 12% of 2019 EPS and 88% of 2020 EPS
NBG Global Markets Roundup | Equity Market Valuation Metrics
National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | Global Markets Analysis
11
N A T I O N A L B A N Κ
O F G R E E C E
Euro Area Sectors Valuation
-6
-4
-2
0
2
Ch
emic
als
Uti
litie
s
Rea
l Est
ate
Ret
ail
Insu
ran
ce
Ind
ust
rial
Euro
Sto
xx
Mat
eria
ls
Tech
no
logy
Foo
d&
Bev
erag
e
Trav
el a
nd
Lei
sure
Med
ia
Fin
/al S
ervi
ces
Co
mm
Ser
vice
s
Au
tos
and
par
ts
He
alth
car
e
Ho
use
ho
ld G
oo
ds
Ban
ks
Ene
rgy
Bas
ic R
eso
urc
es
2019
12-month Forward
%
1-month revisions to 2019 & 12-month Forward EPSEarnings Revisions indicate 1-month change in 2019 & 12-month Forward EPS
-18%
-70-65-60-55-50-45-40-35-30-25-20-15-10
-505
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2019
12-month Forward
%
12-month revisions to 2019 & 12-month Forward EPSEarnings Revisions indicate 12-month change in 2019 & 12-month Forward EPS
15/11/2019 % Weekly Change 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 12m fwd 10Yr Avg 2018 2019 12m fwd 10Yr Avg
EuroStoxx 400 0,3 7,3 -4,6 3,2 3,2 14,8 16,2 15,0 13,1 1,6 1,7 1,6 1,4
Energy 331 -0,2 7,3 8,4 4,8 4,9 13,6 13,3 11,5 11,4 1,2 1,2 1,2 1,2
Materials 485 1,3 10,1 8,3 3,1 3,2 15,1 15,5 14,2 14,1 1,7 1,9 1,8 1,4
Basic Resources 202 -0,4 -4,3 -53,7 2,2 3,2 12,7 20,6 13,5 13,7 1,2 0,8 0,8 0,9
Chemicals 1168 1,0 5,1 -21,5 2,8 2,7 16,0 21,7 19,8 15,0 2,4 2,1 2,0 2,2
Financials
Fin/al Services 498 0,4 15,4 4,6 2,5 2,4 15,9 16,5 16,2 14,0 1,7 1,7 1,6 1,3
Banks 94 -1,8 12,1 -11,0 4,1 5,9 11,5 9,0 8,7 10,1 0,9 0,6 0,6 0,7
Insurance 303 0,0 14,2 9,2 5,0 4,9 10,8 10,9 10,4 9,2 1,0 1,1 1,0 0,9
Real Estate 243 0,9 9,3 3,4 4,2 4,3 18,7 18,8 18,0 16,6 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0
Industrial 941 1,3 12,1 4,1 2,6 2,4 18,1 19,8 17,8 15,1 2,8 3,1 2,9 2,3
Consumer Discretionary
Media 224 -1,4 0,2 8,2 3,7 3,7 17,6 16,1 15,2 15,5 2,3 2,3 2,2 2,1
Retail 566 1,9 11,4 5,8 2,7 2,7 20,3 22,7 20,7 18,4 2,8 3,5 3,4 2,7
Automobiles and parts 509 -1,9 4,6 -22,9 3,3 3,6 8,2 9,0 8,2 8,9 1,2 0,9 0,9 1,0
Travel and Leisure 206 0,8 2,1 -30,4 1,7 2,1 12,0 15,4 12,8 16,2 2,0 1,9 1,8 1,8
Technology 589 0,9 2,7 1,6 1,6 1,2 21,4 25,0 22,7 17,9 3,6 4,0 3,7 2,9
Communication Services 304 -0,1 -1,1 -8,8 4,4 4,2 14,4 16,3 14,9 14,0 1,8 1,9 1,9 1,8
Consumer Staples
Food&Beverage 609 1,7 15,5 5,7 2,9 2,1 20,6 20,4 19,6 18,3 2,9 2,7 2,5 2,6
Household Goods 1055 -0,5 7,8 9,8 1,9 1,7 23,2 28,6 26,0 20,5 4,3 5,9 5,4 3,6
Health care 837 0,9 5,0 -3,6 2,5 2,2 17,0 18,8 17,5 14,9 2,1 2,3 2,2 2,1
Utilities 338 -0,2 -4,1 14,0 5,2 4,6 14,0 15,7 14,6 12,5 1,2 1,5 1,5 1,1
Price (€) P/BV RatioDividend Yield (%)EPS Growth (%)
Source Factset, Blue box indicates a value more than +2standard devation from average, light blue a value more than +1standard devation from average. Orange box indicates a value less than -2standard devation from
average, light orange a value less than -1standard devation from average
P/E Ratio
Source: Factset, Data as of November 15th
12-month forward EPS are 12% of 2019 EPS and 88% of 2020 EPS
Source: Factset, Data as of November 15th
12-month forward EPS are 12% of 2019 EPS and 88% of 2020 EPS
NBG Global Markets Roundup | Disclosures & Analyst Certification
National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | Global Markets Analysis
12
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