Global LNG Hub | LNG market analysis - Global LNG market … · 2018-03-21 · Matt Howell Matt...
Transcript of Global LNG Hub | LNG market analysis - Global LNG market … · 2018-03-21 · Matt Howell Matt...
Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com
Global LNG market dynamics and the implications for Australia’sLNG industry
Matt Howell
14th September 2016
Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com
2
Australia has become a world leader in LNG supply
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
mm
tpa
Prelude
Ichthys
Wheatstone
Gorgon
Pluto
CSG LNG
NWS and Darwin
Qatar
Recent wave of projects position Australia to overtake Qatar as the largest LNG exporter
Australian LNG supply
Source: Wood Mackenzie
US$214
billion
US$60
billion
US$41
billion
* Valued at US$44/bbl in 2016 rising to a long term Brent price of US$70/bbl
(real, 2016 terms) from 2019
Look-forward value to
industry (NPV10)
Look-forward
value to
government
(NPV10)
2020 revenue
Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com
3
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Japan Utilities China NOGC South Korea Utilities IOC Majors Other NOGC Other Utilities Other Uncontracted/Spot
Where Australia will deliver this LNG to has changed considerably from even five years ago
Japanese utilities’ contracted production share will fall around 35% between 2010 and 2025
Australian LNG supply by buyer company group
Source: Wood Mackenzie LNG Tool
Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com
4
How long will the current buyers’ market last?
2001
2015
Weak demand following Asian financial crisis
Rapid growth in supply with development of mega-trains
2006
2009
2011
Buyers’ Market
Sellers’ Market
Japanese LNG demand increases post-Fukushima
LNG prices in Pacific increase while prices in Atlantic basin remain weak
LNG Re-exports from Spain to Pacific Basin begin
Global financial crisis
US shale gas revolution
Market gas prices in Europe and US disconnect from oil
Oil price drop and economic slowdown hits LNG Supply
Demand falls in Japan, South Korea and China
Ramp-up of new Australian Projects and US Projects
Source: Wood Mackenzie
High US gas prices of >$12/mmbtucreated rush for US LNG imports
Oil and coal prices increase
LNG development costs increase
Oil parity deals introduced
Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com
5
Supply from sanctioned facilities is expected to peak in 2024
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032
LN
G O
utp
ut
(mm
tpa)
Australia Qatar RoW North America Africa Asia-Pacific Russia Middle East
Uncertainty surrounds a number of the pre-FID projects
Global LNG output
Source: Wood Mackenzie LNG Tool
Patterned areas represent pre-FID projects
Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com
6
The new LNG infrastructure provides leverage for the future
Australia
Qatar
USA
Malaysia
Russia
Nigeria
Indonesia
Trinidad andTobago
Other
Australia will have 22% of global LNG capacity by 2020
Global LNG Capacity (2020)
Additional nameplate
capacity
Spread across
10 facilities
30”+ diameter gas
pipeline installed
since 2009
62 mmtpa
21 trains
2,840 kms
Source: Wood Mackenzie LNG Tool
Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com
7
Developed Undeveloped (>3tcf)
Undeveloped (1-3 tcf) Undeveloped (<1tcf)
Developed Undeveloped
Gorgon
NWSPluto
Wheatstone LNG
MACEDON
ANGELJANSZ-IO
PLUTO
GORGON
JOHN BROOKES
REINDEER
WHEATSTONE
AUSTRALIAWestern Australia
HALYARDSPAR
Scarborough
IAGO
JULIMARBRUNELLOXENA
GOODWYN
TIDEPOLE
PERSEUS
NORTH RANKIN
PERSEPHONE
ATHENA
0 100 200
km
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Gas field
LNG
Domestic gas only
Undeveloped
North Carnarvon Basin has the full range of options
But the resource position, size and availability could dictate decisions
North Carnarvon Basin reserves (114tcf)
Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com
8
Developed Undeveloped (>3tcf)
Undeveloped (1-3 tcf) Undeveloped (<1tcf)
Developed Undeveloped
AUSTRALIAWestern Australia
INDONESIA
TIMOR-LESTE
JPDA
Northern Territory
Abadi
Barossa
Sunrise
Troubadour
BAYU-UNDAN
Petrel
Ascalon
Tern
BLACKTIP
CalditaBlackwood
HeronChuditch Evans Shoal South
Argus
Burnside
Bassett WestCrown
KronosPoseidon
Torosa
Brecknock
Calliance
ICHTHYS
Echuca ShoalsPRELUDE
Crux
CashMaple
Evans Shoal
Darwin
Ichthys
Prelude FLNG
NT Ashmore &Cartier Is
0 100 200
km
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Gas Field Operators
ConocoPhillips
Engie E&P
Eni
INPEX Corporation
PTTEP
Santos
Shell
Woodside Petroleum
Other operator
Backfill of Darwin should go ahead, but from where and what next?
And what is the future for Ichthys and Prelude?
Browse/Bonaparte Basin reserves (62 tcf)
Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com
9
Positive signs for the future of the Australian LNG industry
Australia is well positioned for when the next positive
cycle occurs
Large amount of infrastructure in place, globally
competitive options
Creative solutions and co-operation are required to fully
exploit the opportunities
Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com
10
Matt Howell
Matt Howell joined Wood Mackenzie’s Australasian Upstream research team in August 2011.
Over the last five years he has provided analysis of field economics, strategies and industry trends across the
region from the exploration phase right through to development and beyond. He has also worked on a wide range
of consulting projects, including country entry studies and evaluations of the domestic gas markets. Prior to joining
Wood Mackenzie, Matt worked for Baker Hughes, an oilfield service company. He was a wireline Field Engineer for
four years before spending three years working in Baker Hughes' Geoscience arm.
Matt holds a Bachelor of Engineering (Hons) degree in Oil and Gas Engineering and a Bachelor of Commerce, both
from the University of Western Australia.
Upstream Research Analyst
T +61 (8) 6216 7521
Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com
11
Disclaimer
This report has been prepared for SEAOCC by Wood Mackenzie Limited. The report is intended
solely for the benefit of attendees and its contents and conclusions are confidential and may not
be disclosed to any other persons or companies without Wood Mackenzie’s prior written
permission.
The information upon which this report is based comes from our own experience, knowledge and
databases. The opinions expressed in this report are those of Wood Mackenzie. They have been
arrived at following careful consideration and enquiry but we do not guarantee their fairness,
completeness or accuracy. The opinions, as of this date, are subject to change. We do not
accept any liability for your reliance upon them.
Strictly Private & Confidential
Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com
12
Europe +44 131 243 4400
Americas +1 713 470 1600
Asia Pacific +65 6518 0800
Email [email protected]
Website www.woodmac.com
Wood Mackenzie™, a Verisk Analytics business, is a trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's
natural resources sector. We empower clients to make better strategic decisions, providing objective analysis
and advice on assets, companies and markets. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
WOOD MACKENZIE is a trade mark of Wood Mackenzie Limited and is the subject of trade mark registrations and/or applications in
the European Community, the USA and other countries around the world.