Global Listed Infrastructure: In a Class of Its Own · 2014. 2. 27. · Global Listed...

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Global Listed Infrastructure: In a Class of Its Own Edward P. Keating Senior Vice President This presentation and all research and materials enclosed are property of Lazard Asset Management LLC. Information and opinions presented have been obtained or derived from sources believed by Lazard to be reliable. Lazard makes no representation as to their accuracy or completeness. All opinions expressed herein are as of the date of this presentation and are subject to change.

Transcript of Global Listed Infrastructure: In a Class of Its Own · 2014. 2. 27. · Global Listed...

  • Global Listed Infrastructure:

    In a Class of Its Own Edward P. Keating

    Senior Vice President This presentation and all research and materials enclosed are property of Lazard Asset Management LLC.

    Information and opinions presented have been obtained or derived from sources believed by Lazard to be reliable. Lazard makes no representation as to their accuracy or completeness. All opinions expressed herein are as of the date of this presentation and are subject to change.

  • 1 Lazard Asset Management

    Inflation protection: stronger than commodities, REITS, timber, etc.

    Stability: Robust, highly forecastable earnings; defensive companies

    Yield : Stable earnings allow for sustainably high dividend yields

    Attractive: Significantly undervalued today

    Global Listed Infrastructure: In a Class of its Own Key Takeaways

  • 2 Lazard Asset Management

    400+ Listed Infrastructure Companies, $3 Trillion+ in Market Capitalization Large, Diverse, Liquid Universe

    Infrastructure comprises the physical assets that a society requires to facilitate its orderly operation. They include:

    In recent years, there has been an international trend to increased private sector ownership and management of these assets.

    Transport Toll roads

    Airports

    Seaports

    Rail

    Energy Gas & electricity

    transmission, distribution & generation

    Water Pipelines &

    treatment plants

    Communication Broadcast

    Satellite

    Cable

    Social Hospitals

    Schools

    Prisons

  • 3 Lazard Asset Management

    Privately Owned, Listed Airports (stocks!)

    Mexico (30+): Monterrey, Los Cabos, Cancun, Guadalajara

    Europe (20+): Charles de Gaulle, Zurich, Vienna, Heathrow, Milan, Rome

    Asia/Australia (25+): Sydney, Melbourne, Auckland, Beijing, Guangzhou, Bangkok

    USA (0)

    As of 31 December 2010 The information identified above should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell any security. It should not be assumed that any investment was, or will be profitable. Source: Lazard Asset Management.

    Frankfurt, Germany

    Copenhagen, Denmark

    Zurich, Switzerland Vienna,

    Austria

    Sydney, Australia

    Monterrey, Mexico

    Tokyo, Japan

    Heathrow, UK

    Publicly listed infrastructure companies form the largest opportunity set for global infrastructure investors with a total market cap more than US$3.0 Trillion.

  • 4 Lazard Asset Management

    Attractive characteristics that can be found in infrastructure:

    Long-life

    Low risk of capital loss

    Inflation linked revenues

    Low correlations with major asset classes

    Key risks associated with investing in Infrastructure:

    Regulatory and political

    Leverage

    Real interest rates

    Attractive Investment Characteristics Why Invest in Infrastructure?

  • 5 Lazard Asset Management

    Expected Risk and Return

    For illustrative purposes only. Expected returns do not represent a promise or guarantee of future results and are subject to change.

    Cash

    Fixed Income

    Listed Equities

    Alternatives

    Preferred Infrastructure

    Expected Return

    Expected Volatility

    Real Assets

  • 6 Lazard Asset Management

    Attractive Characteristics Offer Flexibility Allocating to Global Listed Infrastructure

    Asset Class Rationale for Listed Infrastructure Alongside…

    Infrastructure Largest infrastructure investment universe, diversification, liquidity, transparency

    Private Equity infrastructure

    Real Assets Contractual or regulated inflation protection REITS, Timber, Commodities

    Equities Lower risk, sustainable yield premium, diversifying

    Global Equities

  • 7 Lazard Asset Management

    Not All Infrastructure Is Created Equal…

    Preferred

    The securities identified are not necessarily held by Lazard Asset Management and should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell these securities.

    Strict adherence a Preferred Infrastructure investment philosophy is critical to delivering on the attractive characteristics of infrastructure

    Regulated Utility (e.g., Southern Company)

    Non-Preferred

    Other Preferred examples…

    Merchant Electricity Generator (e.g., E.On; Exelon)

    Toll roads

    Airports

    Broadcast towers

    OECD nations

    Construction companies, road services

    Airlines, baggage handling

    Telecommunication service companies

    Most emerging market nations

    Other Non-Preferred examples…

    Monopoly like assets

    Regulated return

    Explicit/implicit inflation pass through

    = Stable, consistent pattern of return

    Competitive markets

    Commodity price volatility

    High fixed cost structure

    = Volatile, uncertain pattern of return

  • 8 Lazard Asset Management

    Not All Infrastructure is Created Equal…

    Regulated Utility: Southern Company 5 Year Results EPS Growth: +20% Stock Performance: +15%

    Merchant Electricity Generator : Exelon 5 Year Results EPS Growth: -44% Stock Performance: -63%

    2.4

    2.9

    3.4

    3.9

    4.4

    25

    35

    45

    55

    65

    75

    85

    95

    Jan08

    Jun08

    Nov08

    Apr09

    Sep09

    Feb10

    Jul10

    Dec10

    May11

    Oct11

    Mar12

    Aug12

    Jan13

    Exelon Share PriceExelon EPS

    2.2

    2.3

    2.4

    2.5

    2.6

    2.7

    2.8

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    50

    Jan08

    Jun08

    Nov08

    Apr09

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    Feb10

    Jul10

    Dec10

    May11

    Oct11

    Mar12

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    Jan13

    Southern Company Share PriceSouthern Company EPS

  • 9 Lazard Asset Management

    Compelling Real Asset Characteristics of Preferred Infrastructure

    “An Inflation Linked Bond with Rising Coupons”

    - Warren Buffett

  • 10 Lazard Asset Management

    Three key criteria investors need to consider when considering Real Assets:

    Strength of Inflation Pass Through

    • What is the inflation pass-through mechanism? Contractual or market reliant?

    Risk Profile

    • What are the underlying risks of the asset type & cash flow stream?

    Valuation

    • What are the key risks to valuation?

    • Are current asset prices materially above or below intrinsic value?

    A Framework for Evaluating Real Assets

  • 11 Lazard Asset Management

    Contractual Asset Type TIPS Preferred Infrastructure Pricing Mechanism Contractual (CPI) Contractual or Regulated

    (Tariffs/Rates)

    Market Structure NA Monopoly

    Demand Volatility NA Low

    Risk of Capital Loss Low Low

    Inflation Pass Through: Contractual or Market Forces?

    Source: Lazard

    Market Forces Asset Type Real Estate Timber Commodities Pricing Mechanism Supply & Demand

    (Rents) Supply & Demand

    (Marginal Cost) Supply & Demand

    (Marginal Cost)

    Market Structure Competitive Competitive Competitive

    Demand Volatility Moderate Moderate High

    Risk of Capital Loss Moderate Moderate Moderate/High

    Stronger Inflation Protection

    Weaker Inflation Protection

  • 12 Lazard Asset Management

    120

    100

    80

    60 1850

    Equally-weighted Base Metals Real Price Index (Log)

    1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

    Commodities: Inflation protection? Negative real returns since 1845

    The Economist Industrial Commodity-price Index Real1 Terms, 1845-2010

    Adjusted by US GDP deflator Source: The Economist

    Over the long-run, as technology and efficiencies have improved, commodity prices have declined in real terms—that is, they have produced a negative real return

  • 13 Lazard Asset Management

    0

    20

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    120

    1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

    MSCI WorldLazard PIU

    Preferred Infrastructure vs. MSCI World Index Stability of Earnings: Preferred Infrastructure

    As of 30 September 2013 Estimates based on historical financial accounts of companies held in the Lazard Global Listed Infrastructure strategy. Statistics are calculated using an index style construction methodology. Investment characteristics are based upon a portfolio that represents the proposed investment for a fully discretionary account. All estimates are based on current information and are subject to change. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Source: Lazard, UBS

    2002 EPS: Lazard PIU -6.0% MSCI World -23.0%

    2009 EPS: Lazard PIU -3.0% MSCI World -27.0%

    Earnings $

    Not all infrastructure companies will exhibit stable earnings – selectivity is critical

  • 14 Lazard Asset Management

    3.6% Lazard GLI

    3.3% UBS 50/50 Index

    2.3% MSCI World Index

    Stable Earnings Can Lead to Consistent Yield Premium Sustainable Yield Premium: Lazard GLI

    As of 31 December 2013 Estimates based on historical financial accounts of companies held in the Lazard Global Listed Infrastructure strategy. Statistics are calculated using an index style construction methodology. Investment characteristics are based upon a portfolio that represents the proposed investment for a fully discretionary account. All estimates are based on current information and are subject to change. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Source: Lazard, UBS*, MSCI

    2.0

    3.0

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    Jun

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  • 15 Lazard Asset Management

    Real Assets: Risk Profiles Infrastructure Helps Increase Returns, Decrease Risk

    Infrastructure is the lowest risk real asset (after TIPS) – risk/reward between equities and bonds

    REITS and commodities have had higher risk than equities

    Infrastructure has low correlations with REITS, Commodities and TIPS

    As of 28 February 2013 1 Index data represented by monthly returns derived from the following indexes: CPI-U All Items Less Food And Energy US City Average SA, Barclays Capital US Aggregate, Barclays

    Capital Global Aggregate Bond, Barclays Capital US Govt Inflation-Linked, UBS Global Infrastructure & Utilities 50-50 Index, S&P GSCII, FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs, FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Net Return , S&P 500, MSCI The World Index, MSCI EMF

    Source: Factset

    Annualized Returns and Volatility over 5, 10 & 15 years (31 December 2013)

    5 Years 10 Years 15 Years Description1 Return Volatility Return Volatility Return Volatility U.S Inflation (CPI) 1.7 0.2 1.9 0.3 2.0 0.3 Bonds US Bonds 4.4 2.9 4.5 3.4 5.2 3.5 Global Bonds 3.9 5.7 4.5 5.8 4.8 5.9 Real Assets US TIPS 5.4 6.0 4.9 6.5 Infrastructure 9.9 14.6 9.5 14.9 6.5 14.6 Commodities 3.9 19.5 0.7 23.9 6.2 23.4 USA REITS 16.9 25.6 8.6 25.8 10.5 22.2 Equities S&P 500 17.9 15.7 7.4 14.6 4.7 15.5 MSCI World 15.7 17.1 7.6 15.9 4.8 16.0 MSCI EM 15.1 22.4 11.5 23.8 11.2 23.5

  • 16 Lazard Asset Management

    Asset Type Preferred Infrastructure

    Real Estate Timber Commodities

    Key Valuation Drivers

    Allowed Returns/Tolls

    Capital Expenditures

    Long Run Traffic/PAX/Volume

    Rental Yields

    Local Supply & Demand

    Capitalization Rate

    Timber Growth Rates

    Harvest Rates

    Global Supply & Demand

    Short, Medium & Long Run Supply & Demand

    Marginal Cost

    Resource Lives

    Forecasting Risk Low Moderate Moderate High

    Valuation Risk Low Moderate Moderate High

    Real Assets: Valuation

    Preferred Infrastructure assets have relatively low valuation risk As regulated monopolies, assessing supply & demand and long run market pricing is

    largely irrelevant when valuing Preferred Infrastructure assets

    Preferred Infrastructure valuations should therefore be relatively stable over time

    We believe valuation is the most important criteria: overpayment = underperformance

  • 17 Lazard Asset Management

    Market Opportunity: Transurban

    As of 12 July 2013 Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The security identified above is not necessarily held by Lazard for all client portfolios, and should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell this security. It should not be assumed that any investment in this security was, or will be profitable. Source: Factset, Lazard

    Share prices oscillate around intrinsic value thus creating both buying and selling opportunities

    Transurban Intrinsic Value to Share Price

    -60%

    -40%

    -20%

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    Jan-00 Oct-00 Jul-01 Apr-02 Jan-03 Oct-03 Jul-04 Apr-05 Jan-06 Oct-06 Jul-07 Apr-08 Jan-09 Oct-09 Jul-10 Apr-11 Jan-12 Oct-12 Jul-13

    Intrinsic Value

    % Share price above/below Intrinsic value

  • 18 Lazard Asset Management

    Summary Allocating to Global Listed Infrastructure

    Investors seeking increased inflation protection, lower risk and attractive returns are increasingly allocating to Infrastructure

    Existing Allocation

    Rationale for Preferred Infrastructure

    TIPS Increased return Tips offer very little real yield and debt market return expectations are muted

    Commodities Increased inflation protection Commodities have provided negative real returns over the long run and recently have been very volatile

    REITS Lower risk profile REITS have been one of the more volatile global asset classes

    Importantly, we believe many listed infrastructure companies are trading at very attractive valuations, presenting an attractive opportunity for long term investors

  • 19 Lazard Asset Management

    Jay Boothby Capital Advisory Group Office: 212.632.6326 [email protected]

    Contact Information Lazard Asset Management

    Edward Keating Global Listed Infrastructure Office: 212.632.6953 [email protected]

  • 20 Lazard Asset Management

    Equity securities will fluctuate in price; the value of your investment will thus fluctuate, and this may result in a loss. Securities in certain non-domestic countries may be less liquid, more volatile, and less subject to governmental supervision than in one’s home market. The values of these securities may be affected by changes in currency rates, application of a country’s specific tax laws, changes in government administration, and economic and monetary policy. Emerging market securities carry special risks, such as less developed or less efficient trading markets, a lack of company information, and differing auditing and legal standards. The securities markets of emerging market countries can be extremely volatile; performance can also be influenced by political, social, and economic factors affecting companies in emerging market countries. Securities and instruments of infrastructure companies may be more susceptible to adverse economic or regulatory occurrences affecting their industries. Infrastructure companies may be subject to a variety of factors that may adversely affect their business or operations, including additional costs, competition, regulatory implications and certain other factors. Certain information included herein is derived by Lazard in part from an MSCI index or indices (the “Index Data”). However, MSCI has not reviewed this product or report, and does not endorse or express any opinion regarding this product or report or any analysis or other information contained herein or the author or source of any such information or analysis. MSCI makes no express or implied warranties or representations and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any Index Data or data derived there from.

    Disclosures

    �Global Listed Infrastructure: �In a Class of Its OwnKey TakeawaysLarge, Diverse, Liquid UniversePrivately Owned, Listed Airports (stocks!)Why Invest in Infrastructure? Expected Risk and ReturnAllocating to Global Listed InfrastructureNot All Infrastructure Is Created Equal…Not All Infrastructure is Created Equal…Compelling Real Asset Characteristics�of Preferred InfrastructureA Framework for Evaluating Real Assets Inflation Pass Through: Contractual or Market Forces? Commodities: Inflation protection? Stability of Earnings: Preferred InfrastructureSustainable Yield Premium: Lazard GLIReal Assets: Risk ProfilesReal Assets: Valuation�Market Opportunity: TransurbanAllocating to Global Listed InfrastructureLazard Asset ManagementDisclosures