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Global Listed Infrastructure: In a Class of Its Own · 2014. 2. 27. · Global Listed...
Transcript of Global Listed Infrastructure: In a Class of Its Own · 2014. 2. 27. · Global Listed...
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Global Listed Infrastructure:
In a Class of Its Own Edward P. Keating
Senior Vice President This presentation and all research and materials enclosed are property of Lazard Asset Management LLC.
Information and opinions presented have been obtained or derived from sources believed by Lazard to be reliable. Lazard makes no representation as to their accuracy or completeness. All opinions expressed herein are as of the date of this presentation and are subject to change.
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1 Lazard Asset Management
Inflation protection: stronger than commodities, REITS, timber, etc.
Stability: Robust, highly forecastable earnings; defensive companies
Yield : Stable earnings allow for sustainably high dividend yields
Attractive: Significantly undervalued today
Global Listed Infrastructure: In a Class of its Own Key Takeaways
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400+ Listed Infrastructure Companies, $3 Trillion+ in Market Capitalization Large, Diverse, Liquid Universe
Infrastructure comprises the physical assets that a society requires to facilitate its orderly operation. They include:
In recent years, there has been an international trend to increased private sector ownership and management of these assets.
Transport Toll roads
Airports
Seaports
Rail
Energy Gas & electricity
transmission, distribution & generation
Water Pipelines &
treatment plants
Communication Broadcast
Satellite
Cable
Social Hospitals
Schools
Prisons
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Privately Owned, Listed Airports (stocks!)
Mexico (30+): Monterrey, Los Cabos, Cancun, Guadalajara
Europe (20+): Charles de Gaulle, Zurich, Vienna, Heathrow, Milan, Rome
Asia/Australia (25+): Sydney, Melbourne, Auckland, Beijing, Guangzhou, Bangkok
USA (0)
As of 31 December 2010 The information identified above should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell any security. It should not be assumed that any investment was, or will be profitable. Source: Lazard Asset Management.
Frankfurt, Germany
Copenhagen, Denmark
Zurich, Switzerland Vienna,
Austria
Sydney, Australia
Monterrey, Mexico
Tokyo, Japan
Heathrow, UK
Publicly listed infrastructure companies form the largest opportunity set for global infrastructure investors with a total market cap more than US$3.0 Trillion.
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Attractive characteristics that can be found in infrastructure:
Long-life
Low risk of capital loss
Inflation linked revenues
Low correlations with major asset classes
Key risks associated with investing in Infrastructure:
Regulatory and political
Leverage
Real interest rates
Attractive Investment Characteristics Why Invest in Infrastructure?
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Expected Risk and Return
For illustrative purposes only. Expected returns do not represent a promise or guarantee of future results and are subject to change.
Cash
Fixed Income
Listed Equities
Alternatives
Preferred Infrastructure
Expected Return
Expected Volatility
Real Assets
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Attractive Characteristics Offer Flexibility Allocating to Global Listed Infrastructure
Asset Class Rationale for Listed Infrastructure Alongside…
Infrastructure Largest infrastructure investment universe, diversification, liquidity, transparency
Private Equity infrastructure
Real Assets Contractual or regulated inflation protection REITS, Timber, Commodities
Equities Lower risk, sustainable yield premium, diversifying
Global Equities
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Not All Infrastructure Is Created Equal…
Preferred
The securities identified are not necessarily held by Lazard Asset Management and should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell these securities.
Strict adherence a Preferred Infrastructure investment philosophy is critical to delivering on the attractive characteristics of infrastructure
Regulated Utility (e.g., Southern Company)
Non-Preferred
Other Preferred examples…
Merchant Electricity Generator (e.g., E.On; Exelon)
Toll roads
Airports
Broadcast towers
OECD nations
Construction companies, road services
Airlines, baggage handling
Telecommunication service companies
Most emerging market nations
Other Non-Preferred examples…
Monopoly like assets
Regulated return
Explicit/implicit inflation pass through
= Stable, consistent pattern of return
Competitive markets
Commodity price volatility
High fixed cost structure
= Volatile, uncertain pattern of return
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Not All Infrastructure is Created Equal…
Regulated Utility: Southern Company 5 Year Results EPS Growth: +20% Stock Performance: +15%
Merchant Electricity Generator : Exelon 5 Year Results EPS Growth: -44% Stock Performance: -63%
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Jan08
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Nov08
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Exelon Share PriceExelon EPS
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Southern Company Share PriceSouthern Company EPS
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Compelling Real Asset Characteristics of Preferred Infrastructure
“An Inflation Linked Bond with Rising Coupons”
- Warren Buffett
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Three key criteria investors need to consider when considering Real Assets:
Strength of Inflation Pass Through
• What is the inflation pass-through mechanism? Contractual or market reliant?
Risk Profile
• What are the underlying risks of the asset type & cash flow stream?
Valuation
• What are the key risks to valuation?
• Are current asset prices materially above or below intrinsic value?
A Framework for Evaluating Real Assets
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Contractual Asset Type TIPS Preferred Infrastructure Pricing Mechanism Contractual (CPI) Contractual or Regulated
(Tariffs/Rates)
Market Structure NA Monopoly
Demand Volatility NA Low
Risk of Capital Loss Low Low
Inflation Pass Through: Contractual or Market Forces?
Source: Lazard
Market Forces Asset Type Real Estate Timber Commodities Pricing Mechanism Supply & Demand
(Rents) Supply & Demand
(Marginal Cost) Supply & Demand
(Marginal Cost)
Market Structure Competitive Competitive Competitive
Demand Volatility Moderate Moderate High
Risk of Capital Loss Moderate Moderate Moderate/High
Stronger Inflation Protection
Weaker Inflation Protection
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120
100
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60 1850
Equally-weighted Base Metals Real Price Index (Log)
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Commodities: Inflation protection? Negative real returns since 1845
The Economist Industrial Commodity-price Index Real1 Terms, 1845-2010
Adjusted by US GDP deflator Source: The Economist
Over the long-run, as technology and efficiencies have improved, commodity prices have declined in real terms—that is, they have produced a negative real return
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1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
MSCI WorldLazard PIU
Preferred Infrastructure vs. MSCI World Index Stability of Earnings: Preferred Infrastructure
As of 30 September 2013 Estimates based on historical financial accounts of companies held in the Lazard Global Listed Infrastructure strategy. Statistics are calculated using an index style construction methodology. Investment characteristics are based upon a portfolio that represents the proposed investment for a fully discretionary account. All estimates are based on current information and are subject to change. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Source: Lazard, UBS
2002 EPS: Lazard PIU -6.0% MSCI World -23.0%
2009 EPS: Lazard PIU -3.0% MSCI World -27.0%
Earnings $
Not all infrastructure companies will exhibit stable earnings – selectivity is critical
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3.6% Lazard GLI
3.3% UBS 50/50 Index
2.3% MSCI World Index
Stable Earnings Can Lead to Consistent Yield Premium Sustainable Yield Premium: Lazard GLI
As of 31 December 2013 Estimates based on historical financial accounts of companies held in the Lazard Global Listed Infrastructure strategy. Statistics are calculated using an index style construction methodology. Investment characteristics are based upon a portfolio that represents the proposed investment for a fully discretionary account. All estimates are based on current information and are subject to change. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Source: Lazard, UBS*, MSCI
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Real Assets: Risk Profiles Infrastructure Helps Increase Returns, Decrease Risk
Infrastructure is the lowest risk real asset (after TIPS) – risk/reward between equities and bonds
REITS and commodities have had higher risk than equities
Infrastructure has low correlations with REITS, Commodities and TIPS
As of 28 February 2013 1 Index data represented by monthly returns derived from the following indexes: CPI-U All Items Less Food And Energy US City Average SA, Barclays Capital US Aggregate, Barclays
Capital Global Aggregate Bond, Barclays Capital US Govt Inflation-Linked, UBS Global Infrastructure & Utilities 50-50 Index, S&P GSCII, FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs, FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Net Return , S&P 500, MSCI The World Index, MSCI EMF
Source: Factset
Annualized Returns and Volatility over 5, 10 & 15 years (31 December 2013)
5 Years 10 Years 15 Years Description1 Return Volatility Return Volatility Return Volatility U.S Inflation (CPI) 1.7 0.2 1.9 0.3 2.0 0.3 Bonds US Bonds 4.4 2.9 4.5 3.4 5.2 3.5 Global Bonds 3.9 5.7 4.5 5.8 4.8 5.9 Real Assets US TIPS 5.4 6.0 4.9 6.5 Infrastructure 9.9 14.6 9.5 14.9 6.5 14.6 Commodities 3.9 19.5 0.7 23.9 6.2 23.4 USA REITS 16.9 25.6 8.6 25.8 10.5 22.2 Equities S&P 500 17.9 15.7 7.4 14.6 4.7 15.5 MSCI World 15.7 17.1 7.6 15.9 4.8 16.0 MSCI EM 15.1 22.4 11.5 23.8 11.2 23.5
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Asset Type Preferred Infrastructure
Real Estate Timber Commodities
Key Valuation Drivers
Allowed Returns/Tolls
Capital Expenditures
Long Run Traffic/PAX/Volume
Rental Yields
Local Supply & Demand
Capitalization Rate
Timber Growth Rates
Harvest Rates
Global Supply & Demand
Short, Medium & Long Run Supply & Demand
Marginal Cost
Resource Lives
Forecasting Risk Low Moderate Moderate High
Valuation Risk Low Moderate Moderate High
Real Assets: Valuation
Preferred Infrastructure assets have relatively low valuation risk As regulated monopolies, assessing supply & demand and long run market pricing is
largely irrelevant when valuing Preferred Infrastructure assets
Preferred Infrastructure valuations should therefore be relatively stable over time
We believe valuation is the most important criteria: overpayment = underperformance
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Market Opportunity: Transurban
As of 12 July 2013 Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The security identified above is not necessarily held by Lazard for all client portfolios, and should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell this security. It should not be assumed that any investment in this security was, or will be profitable. Source: Factset, Lazard
Share prices oscillate around intrinsic value thus creating both buying and selling opportunities
Transurban Intrinsic Value to Share Price
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Jan-00 Oct-00 Jul-01 Apr-02 Jan-03 Oct-03 Jul-04 Apr-05 Jan-06 Oct-06 Jul-07 Apr-08 Jan-09 Oct-09 Jul-10 Apr-11 Jan-12 Oct-12 Jul-13
Intrinsic Value
% Share price above/below Intrinsic value
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Summary Allocating to Global Listed Infrastructure
Investors seeking increased inflation protection, lower risk and attractive returns are increasingly allocating to Infrastructure
Existing Allocation
Rationale for Preferred Infrastructure
TIPS Increased return Tips offer very little real yield and debt market return expectations are muted
Commodities Increased inflation protection Commodities have provided negative real returns over the long run and recently have been very volatile
REITS Lower risk profile REITS have been one of the more volatile global asset classes
Importantly, we believe many listed infrastructure companies are trading at very attractive valuations, presenting an attractive opportunity for long term investors
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Jay Boothby Capital Advisory Group Office: 212.632.6326 [email protected]
Contact Information Lazard Asset Management
Edward Keating Global Listed Infrastructure Office: 212.632.6953 [email protected]
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Equity securities will fluctuate in price; the value of your investment will thus fluctuate, and this may result in a loss. Securities in certain non-domestic countries may be less liquid, more volatile, and less subject to governmental supervision than in one’s home market. The values of these securities may be affected by changes in currency rates, application of a country’s specific tax laws, changes in government administration, and economic and monetary policy. Emerging market securities carry special risks, such as less developed or less efficient trading markets, a lack of company information, and differing auditing and legal standards. The securities markets of emerging market countries can be extremely volatile; performance can also be influenced by political, social, and economic factors affecting companies in emerging market countries. Securities and instruments of infrastructure companies may be more susceptible to adverse economic or regulatory occurrences affecting their industries. Infrastructure companies may be subject to a variety of factors that may adversely affect their business or operations, including additional costs, competition, regulatory implications and certain other factors. Certain information included herein is derived by Lazard in part from an MSCI index or indices (the “Index Data”). However, MSCI has not reviewed this product or report, and does not endorse or express any opinion regarding this product or report or any analysis or other information contained herein or the author or source of any such information or analysis. MSCI makes no express or implied warranties or representations and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any Index Data or data derived there from.
Disclosures
�Global Listed Infrastructure: �In a Class of Its OwnKey TakeawaysLarge, Diverse, Liquid UniversePrivately Owned, Listed Airports (stocks!)Why Invest in Infrastructure? Expected Risk and ReturnAllocating to Global Listed InfrastructureNot All Infrastructure Is Created Equal…Not All Infrastructure is Created Equal…Compelling Real Asset Characteristics�of Preferred InfrastructureA Framework for Evaluating Real Assets Inflation Pass Through: Contractual or Market Forces? Commodities: Inflation protection? Stability of Earnings: Preferred InfrastructureSustainable Yield Premium: Lazard GLIReal Assets: Risk ProfilesReal Assets: Valuation�Market Opportunity: TransurbanAllocating to Global Listed InfrastructureLazard Asset ManagementDisclosures