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Transcript of Global life expectancy is expected to continue to · PDF file #MIGlobal Global life expectancy...

  • #MIGlobal

    Global life expectancy is expected to continue to increase

    Sources: United Nations.

    Years

    79.6

    81.8

    84.1

    76.9

    79.2

    82.0

    76.0 78.1

    80.5

    71.0

    73.7

    76.6

    60

    65

    70

    75

    80

    85

    90

    2015 2030 2050

    U.S.

    Europe

    China

    World

  • #MIGlobal

    By 2050, the U.S. older adult population will increase 76 percent and globally it will increase 146 percent

    Sources: U.S. United Nations.

    Million people aged 65+

    50 75 88 131 167 193134

    237

    333

    606

    975

    1,491

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1,000

    1,200

    1,400

    1,600

    2015 2030 2050

    U.S.

    Europe

    China

    World

  • #MIGlobal

    Globally, the 80+ year-old population will grow the most from current levels among older adults

    213

    336

    447

    152

    256

    358

    114

    189

    293

    125

    192

    392

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    450

    500

    2015 2030 2050

    Million people

    65-69 Yrs

    70-74 Yrs

    80+ Yrs

    75-79 Yrs

    Sources: United Nations.

  • #MIGlobal

    Larger portions of populations aged 65+ going forward

    2015 2030 2050

    World 8% 12% 16%

    India 5% 8% 13%

    Brazil 8% 14% 23%

    China 9% 16% 24%

    Russia 13% 18% 21%

    United States 15% 20% 21%

    United Kingdom 18% 22% 25%

    Germany 21% 28% 33%

    Japan 26% 31% 37%

    Source: United Nations.

  • #MIGlobal

    While other major countries curb interest, Chinese consumption of cigarettes is expected to increase

    27 27

    16 16

    28

    31

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    2015 2030

    U.S. India China

    Source: University of Denver.

    Percent of adults 30 years and older

  • #MIGlobal

    Obesity rates are expected to rise in populous countries outside the U.S.

    53 52

    3 45 8

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    2015 2030

    U.S.

    India China

    Source: University of Denver.

    Percent of adults 30 years and older

  • #MIGlobal

    Spending on top 6 chronic diseases in the U.S. will grow over 70 percent by 2020

    Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

    2010 Total = US$ 887 billion 2020 Total = US$ 1.5 trillion

    34 72 133 141

    155

    351

    55 118

    225 244 273

    611

    $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700

    2010

    2020

    US$ billions

  • #MIGlobal

    U.S. safety net health insurance expenditure is expected to increase, with growth in Medicaid outpacing Medicare

    Sources: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Kaiser Family Foundation.

    432

    746

    480

    686

    $0

    $100

    $200

    $300

    $400

    $500

    $600

    $700

    $800

    2011 2020

    Medicaid Medicare

    US$ billions

  • #MIGlobal

    The shrinking cost of sequencing a genome From $3 billion for the first genome to less than $1 thousand today

    Source: National Institutes of Health.

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

    US$ millions

    Next generation

    technology adoption

    $95.3 million

    $1 thousand

  • #MIGlobal

    Our mission to change aging requires more than a compelling narrative

    Source: Milken Institute.

    “Population aging is one of the great

    global developments of the 21st century.

    The vast potential of longer lives, made

    possible by remarkable advances in

    medical science and public health,

    demands fresh thinking and action.”

  • #MIGlobal

    What is “personalized” medicine

    • Uses information about a person’s genes, proteins, and cellular environment for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment

    • Treatment strategies with greater specificity

    Source: Columbia University Medical Center.

  • #MIGlobal

    A multi-sector, multi-strategy approach is crucial to making lasting change.

    • Interventions need to complement each other.

    • The effects and effectiveness of these interventions vary from disease to disease.

    Source: Milken Institute.

  • #MIGlobal

    Older adults with a greater sense of purpose are less likely to develop adverse health outcomes

    Source: Stroke.

    Mortality

    Decline in physical function

    Frailty

    DisabilityAlzheimer’s disease

    Clinical stroke

    Vs.

  • #MIGlobal

    Purpose in life is associated with substantially reduced risk of Alzheimer’s disease (AD)

    • Provides neural reserve by protecting against harmful effects of AD pathologic changes on cognitive function in elderly persons

    • AD has a long preclinical phase • Purpose in life may be modifiable:

    • Self-reflection

    • Synthesis of experiences

    • Awareness of role and potential

    • Establish goals and priorities

    Sources: Archives of General Psychiatry.

  • #MIGlobal

    Purpose in life is associated with substantially reduced risk of Alzheimer’s disease (AD)

    Effect of purpose in life on the relation between A lzheimer disease pathologic changes on cognitive fun ction in advanced age. Boyle PA1, Buchman AS, Wilson RS, Yu L, Schneider JA, Bennett DA. Author information Abstract CONTEXT: Purpose in life is associated with a substantially reduced risk of Alzheimer disease (AD), but the neurobiologic basis of this protective effect remains unknown. OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that purpose in life reduces the deleterious effects of AD pathologic changes on cognition in advanced age. DESIGN: A longitudinal, epidemiologic, clinicopathologic study of aging was conducted that included detailed annual clinical evaluations and brain autopsy. PARTICIPANTS: Two hundred forty-six community-based older persons from the Rush Memory and Aging Project participated. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Purpose in life was assessed via structured interview, and cognitive function was evaluated annually and proximate to death. On postmortem examination, 3 indexes of AD pathologic features were quantified: global AD pathologic changes, amyloid, and tangles. The associations of disease pathologic changes and purpose in life with cognition were examined using linear regression and mixed models.

    Sources: Archives of General Psychiatry.

  • #MIGlobal

    Considering all the factors that can cause obesity

    Nutrition and risk behavior

    Lifestyle and workplace activities

    Demographics and family structure

    Geographic variations

    Source: Milken Institute.

  • #MIGlobal

    A modest reduction in sugar-sweetened beverage consumption can lead to substantial improvements

    Source: Milken Institute.

  • #MIGlobal

    When the “spans” don’t match

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    1900 1960 2010

    Years

    Mean lifespan

    Mean healthspan

    Source: USC Davis School of Gerontology.

    • Lifespan – average life expectancy

    • Healthspan – age of contracting a chronic disease

    • Disability-span is growing

    • “Wealth-span” – age when savings begin to dwindle

  • #MIGlobal Source: USC Davis School of Gerontology.

  • #MIGlobal

    Gender and aging

    Sources: USC Davis School of Gerontology, Science, OECD.

    • Women

    • Lived only 1-2 years longer a century ago

    • Live 5 years longer than men today

    • Represent >80% of centenarians

    • Spend more years with “disability”

    U.S. life expectancy

    Men

    76 years

    Women

    81 years

  • #MIGlobal

    A recent study has found that women who carry a little extra weight

    live longer than the men who mention it.

    Source: USC Davis School of Gerontology.

  • #MIGlobal

    The USC Center for Personalized Aging

    Source: USC Davis School of Gerontology.

    • The end of “one-size-fits-all” aging advice • This Concept is based on “genomics” and

    “epigenetics”, the approach of analyzing the sequences of our DNA.

    • personalized aging assumes that everybody ages differently due to many factors unique to the individual, including our genes.

    • Filter out non-relevant health messaging • Allow focus on areas of personal highest risk • Help select individualized programs, diets, and

    wellness strategies

  • #MIGlobal

    Personalized Aging Initiative

    Source: USC Davis School of Gerontology.

    The opportunity: • Create new approaches to individualized s