Global Lake Temperature Collaboration...Global records of lake surface temperature reveal a century...
Transcript of Global Lake Temperature Collaboration...Global records of lake surface temperature reveal a century...
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Global records of lake surface temperature reveal a century of warming
John D. Lenters, Ph.D.Senior Scientist, LimnoTech
Jordan S. Read, Sapna Sharma, Catherine M. O’Reilly, Stephanie Hampton, Derek Gray, Peter B. McIntyre, Simon J. Hook, Philipp Schneider,
Piet Verburg, Peter D. Blanken, and GLTC Contributors
http://laketemperature.org/
Global Lake Temperature Collaboration
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GLTC ContributorsSapna Sharma, Derek K. Gray, Jordan S. Read, Catherine M. O’Reilly, Philipp Schneider, Anam Qudrat, Corinna Gries, SamanthaStefanoff, Stephanie E. Hampton, Simon Hook, John D. Lenters, David M. Livingstone, Peter B. McIntyre, Rita Adrian, Mathew G.Allan, Orlane Anneville, Lauri Arvola, Jay Austin, John Bailey, Jill S. Baron, Justin Brookes, Yuwei Chen, Robert Daly, Martin Dokulil,Bo Dong, Kye Ewing, Elvira de Eyto, David Hamilton, Karl Havens, Shane Haydon, Harald Hetzenauer, Jocelyne Heneberry, Amy L.Hetherington, Scott N. Higgins, Eric Hixson, Lyubov R. Izmest’eva, Benjamin M. Jones, Küllli Kangur, Peter Kasprzak, Olivier Köster,Benjamin M. Kraemer, Michio Kumagai, Esko Kuusisto, George Leshkevich, Linda May, Sally MacIntyre, Dörthe Müller‐Navarra,Mikhail Naumenko, Peeter Noges, Tiina Noges, Pius Niederhauser, Ryan P. North, Andrew Paterson, Pierre‐Denis Plisnier,Anna Rigosi, Alon Rimmer, Michela Rogora, Lars Rudstam, James A. Rusak, Nico Salmaso, Nihar R. Samal, Daniel E. Schindler,Geoffrey Schladow, Silke R. Schmidt, Tracey Schultz, Eugene A. Silow, Dietmar Straile, Katrin Teubner, Piet Verburg, AriVoutilainen, Andrew Watkinson, Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer, Craig E. Williamson, Kara H. Woo, Catherine M. O'Reilly, Sapna Sharma,Derek K. Gray, Stephanie E. Hampton, Jordan S. Read, Rex J. Rowley, Philipp Schneider, John D. Lenters, Peter B. McIntyre,Benjamin M. Kraemer, Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer, Dietmar Straile, Bo Dong, Rita Adrian, Mathew G. Allan, Orlane Anneville, LauriArvola, Jay Austin, John L. Bailey, Jill S. Baron, Justin D. Brookes, Elvira de Eyto, Martin T. Dokulil, David P. Hamilton, Karl Havens,Amy L. Hetherington, Scott N. Higgins, Simon Hook, Lyubov R. Izmest'eva, Klaus D. Jöhnk, Külli Kangur, Peter Kasprzak, MichioKumagai, Esko Kuusisto, George Leshkevich, David M. Livingstone, Sally MacIntyre, Linda May, John M. Melack, Dörthe C. Müller‐Navarra, Mikhail Naumenko, Peeter Nõges, Tiina Nõges, Ryan P. North, Pierre‐Denis Plisnier, Anna Rigosi, Alon Rimmer, MichelaRogora, Lars G. Rudstam, James A. Rusak, Nico Salmaso, Nihar R. Samal, Daniel E. Schindler, S. Geoffrey Schladow, MartinSchmid, Silke R. Schmidt, Eugene Silow, M. Evren Soylu, Katrin Teubner, Piet Verburg, Ari Voutilainen, Andrew Watkinson, Craig E.Williamson, Guoqing Zhang, John D. Lenters, David M. Livingstone, Catherine M. O’Reilly, Martin T. Dokulil, Gesa A.Weyhenmeyer, Philipp Schneider, Sapna Sharma, Elvira de Eyto, Rita Adrian, Scott N. Higgins, Pierre‐Denis Plisnier, Nico Salmaso,Dietmar Straille, Bo Dong, Piet Verburg, George Leshkevich, Peter B. McIntyre, Jordan S. Read, Silke Schmidt, Peeter Nõges, Tiina Nõges, Benjamin M. Kraemer, Mathew Allan, Martin Schmid, Geoffrey Schladow, Sally MacIntyre, David Hamilton, Alon Rimmer,Orlane Anneville, Stephanie E. Hampton, Claude Duguay, Amy L. Hetherington, Dendy D. Lofton, James A. Rusak, Nihar R. Samal,Noemi Barabas, Justin Brookes, Robert C. Wilson, Derek K. Gray, Simon Hook, Mehmet E. Soylu
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Acknowledgements We would like to thank the numerous scientists and institutions that contributed
data and expertise to the GLTC project (http://laketemperature.org/). Special thanks to the GLTC data analysis sub‐group: Derek Gray, Stephanie
Hampton, Peter McIntyre, Catherine O’Reilly, Jordan Read, Sapna Sharma, Noemi Barabas, Dendy Lofton, R. J. Rowley, Evren Soylu, and Piet Verburg
We gratefully acknowledge NSF, NASA, and the University of Nebraska‐Lincoln for funding the GLTC workshop, as well as other institutions for their support.
http://laketemperature.org/
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• Background and motivation• Lake Superior: Big lake, big changes• The “puzzle” of rapid lake warming• Toward a solution: A new, global initiative• Implications for evaporation, water levels• Summary
Talk outline
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Warming rate (full period):+0.07 °C/decade
A known known: Our climate is changing
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Warming rate (1985‐2009):+0.17 °C/decade
A known known: Our climate is changing
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(Magnuson et al.,2000; Science)
Global trends in freeze / thaw dates
A known known: Lakes are losing ice
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Schneider, P., and S. J. Hook (2010), Geophys. Res. Lett., 37.
A known known: Lakes are warming
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Schneider, P., and S. J. Hook (2010), Geophys. Res. Lett., 37.
“hotspots”
A known known: Lakes are warming
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• Changes in lake evaporation, which also affects …‐Water balance‐ Temperature‐ Stratification‐ Lake chemistry‐ Vertical mixing‐ Lake ecology
Other impacts are becoming evident
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• Variations in lake level, which also affects …‐Water quality / municipal water supplies‐ Recreational boating / fishing‐ Shoreline erosion / flooding‐ Commercial shipping ‐ Lake ecology‐ Hydropower‐ Tourism
Other impacts are becoming evident
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How do we know?
• Measurements‐ Field data‐ Satellite data‐ Long‐term monitoring programs
• Models‐ Physical, hydrological, biological‐ Climate models‐ Lake models
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Examples of field sites
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Arctic thermokarst lakes
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Lake Tahoe
July 9, 2011
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Semi‐arid western Nebraska
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Sparkling Lake, Wisconsin
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Lake SuperiorGreat Lakes Evaporation
Network (GLEN)
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• Background and motivation• Lake Superior: Big lake, big changes• The “puzzle” of rapid lake warming• Toward a solution: A new, global initiative• Implications for evaporation, water levels• Summary
Talk outline
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Evaporation
Ice Cover
Water Temperature
Lake Superior mean annual cycle (1973‐2010)
Van Cleave et al. (2014)
Seasonal interactions: Lake Superior
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Lake Superior: Highly variable ice cover
MODIS
February 19, 2014
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Lake Superior: Highly variable ice cover
February 2012
MODIS
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Lake Superior is losing ice
112 days 74 days34% drop inice duration
April 16
December 26
March 28
January 14
Van Cleave et al. (2014)
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Lake Superior is warming rapidly
9.8°C
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Water te
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Van Cleave et al. (2014)
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Spence et al. (2013) Journal of Hydrometeorology
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Lake Superior evaporation(direct measurements at Stannard Rock Lighthouse)
25 cm
Great Lakes EvaporationNetwork (GLEN)
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Record warmth in 2012
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Low water levels, shifting seasons
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Shifting seasons
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Great Lakes ice cover (1980‐2016)
High variability
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• Background and motivation• Lake Superior: Big lake, big changes• The “puzzle” of rapid lake warming• Toward a solution: A new, global initiative• Implications for evaporation, water levels• Summary
Talk outline
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Lake Superior temperature trends (1948-99)
Tair' Tw'
Lenters (2004) – J. Great Lakes Res.
Why the rapid warming of Lake Superior?Is it a summer response to winter warming?
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Why the rapid warming of Lake Superior?Is it an ice‐albedo feedback?
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34, L06604, doi:10.1029/2006GL029021, 2007
Air: dTair/dt ~ +0.5 °C/decadeWater: dTs/dt ~ +1.1 °C/decade
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Ice‐albedo feedback? Not for these lakes …GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 36, L22402, doi:10.1029/2009GL040846, 2009
Air: dTair/dt ~ +0.5 °C/decadeWater: dTs/dt ~ +1.1 °C/decade
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http://greatlakesmapping.org
Summerwarmingrate (°C/yr)1994‐2010
Bathymetry
http://greatlakesmapping.org
Maybe an ice‐albedo feedback is not even needed?
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Are lakes somehow “hypersensitive”to climate change?
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Air: dTair/dt ~ +1.0 °C/decadeWater: dTs/dt ~ +1.5 °C/decade
Sparkling Lake temperature trends(July–September mean)
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Is the rapid warming just a “deep lake” phenomenon? Nope.
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SW E HLW
SWnet + LWnet – E – H = S/t
Are lakes somehow “hypersensitive”to climate change?
Sparkling Lake, WI
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SWnet + LWnet – E – H = S/t
Are lakes somehow “hypersensitive”to climate change?
Sparkling Lake, WI
Not likely … consider the lake energy balance: Climate warms (i.e., higher Tair)
Lake warms (i.e., higher Twater)
Higher evaporation (and evaporative cooling)
Lake warming is limited (i.e., Twater
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Are lakes somehow “hypersensitive”to climate change?
Not likely.
Then what??
Ice‐albedo feedback? Not for some lakes.Only a “deep lake” phenomenon? No.
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• Background and motivation• Lake Superior: Big lake, big changes• The “puzzle” of rapid lake warming• Toward a solution: A new, global initiative• Implications for evaporation, water levels• Summary
Talk outline
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Origins of a new global initiative:
The Global Lake TemperatureCollaboration (GLTC)
GlobalLakeTemperatureCollaboration– http://laketemperature.org/
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Origins of the GLTC initiative
October 2010
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Origins of the GLTC initiativeSchneider, P., and S. J. Hook (2010), Geophys. Res. Lett., 37.
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October 2010
Origins of the GLTC initiative
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Special session: Global Trends in Lake Temperature andAssociated Impacts on Lacustrine Systems
Origins of the GLTC initiative
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GLTC Workshop (June 2012)Lincoln, Nebraska
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GLTC Workshop (June 2012)Lincoln, Nebraska
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http://laketemperature.org/
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Fundamental question:
What are the patterns, mechanisms, and impacts of global lakewarming / cooling?
GlobalLakeTemperatureCollaboration– http://laketemperature.org/
(from both satellite and in situ measurements)
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Number of lakes in the GLTC database
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In situBoth
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GlobalLakeTemperatureCollaborationWorkshop
June1‐5,2012Lincoln,NE
Number of lakes in the GLTC databaseN
Sat.
In situ
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Recent warming rates (1985‐2009)
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June1‐5,2012Lincoln,NE
Temperature trend (°C dec‐1)
Num
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Distribution of LST trends (1985‐2009)
‐2.0 ‐1.5 ‐1.0 ‐0.5 0.0 +0.5 +1.0 + 1.5
Mean LST trend:+0.4 °C dec‐1
(95% CI: 0.2 – 0.6)
90% of lakesare warming
Distribution of LST trends(1985‐2009)
Lake Superior
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GlobalLakeTemperatureCollaborationWorkshop
June1‐5,2012Lincoln,NELake surface temperature (LST) trends
(1985‐2009; summer only)
O’Reilly et al. (2015)
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GlobalLakeTemperatureCollaborationWorkshop
June1‐5,2012Lincoln,NEMany factors influence warming rates
O’Reilly et al. (2015)
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• Background and motivation• Lake Superior: Big lake, big changes• The “puzzle” of rapid lake warming• Toward a solution: A new, global initiative• Implications for evaporation, water levels• Summary
Talk outline
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Implications for evaporation• Open‐water evaporation can be very different from terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET)‐ Different drivers‐ Different variability‐ Different impacts
water level impacts
P
ET
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Implications for evaporation
water
air
Vaporpressuregradient
(temperature = Tw)
(temperature = Ta)
vaporpressure
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Ontario
Lake Superior
Michigan
Minnesota
Wisconsin
StannardRock
GraniteIsland
Measuring evaporation on large lakes
Evaporation monitoring stations:‐ June 2008: Lake Superior (Stannard Rock*)‐ July 2009: Lake Superior (Granite Island)
* International UpperGreat Lakes Study(IUGLS)
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Instrumentation
Granite Island, Michigan
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Ontario
Lake Superior
Michigan
Minnesota
Wisconsin
StannardRock
GraniteIsland
Evaporation monitoring stations:‐ June 2008: Lake Superior (Stannard Rock*)‐ July 2009: Lake Superior (Granite Island)
* International UpperGreat Lakes Study(IUGLS)
Real‐time data and imagery
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Real‐time data and imagery
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Time‐lapse video
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Ontario
Lake Superior
Michigan
Minnesota
Wisconsin
StannardRock
GraniteIsland
SpectacleReef
Evaporation monitoring stations:‐ June 2008: Lake Superior (Stannard Rock*)‐ July 2009: Lake Superior (Granite Island)‐ Sept 2009: Lake Huron (Spectacle Reef*)‐May 2012: Lake Erie (Long Point*)‐ June 2012: Lake Michigan (White Shoal*)
WhiteShoal
* International UpperGreat Lakes Study(IUGLS)
Growing the network
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The current GLEN network
Evaporationstations
Great Lakes Evaporation Network (GLEN)
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More info on GLEN
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Expansion to buoys, drifters, and ships
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Model results show increasing evaporation
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Watras et al. (2014)
GWMI‐HuronSuperior
Water levels
Model results show increasing evaporation
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Summary• First global compilation of satellite / in situ lake temperature data• 250+ lakes in the GLTC database; most covering at least 25 years• ~90% of the lakes in the database are warming (1985‐2009)• Satellite / in situ data show similar rates of lake surface warming• “Global” LST has increased ~2 standard deviations since 1900• Great Lakes are warming rapidly (esp. Superior and Huron)
http://laketemperature.org/
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Summary• Most rapid warming is in recent decades (~0.4 °C dec‐1)• Some changes are non‐linear (e.g., Lake Superior regime shift)• Interdecadal variability in global LST is coherent with Tair,
lake ice, and global patterns of solar dimming / brightening• Important implications for lake evaporation, water levels• Long‐term, global datasets provide valuable perspective
http://laketemperature.org/
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Acknowledgementshttp://laketemperature.org/
Many thanks to the numerous scientists and institutions that contributed data and expertise to the GLTC project (http://laketemperature.org/).
Special thanks to the GLTC data analysis sub‐group: Derek Gray, Stephanie Hampton, Peter McIntyre, Catherine O’Reilly, Jordan Read, Sapna Sharma, Noemi Barabas, Dendy Lofton, R. J. Rowley, Evren Soylu, and Piet Verburg
We gratefully acknowledge NSF, NASA, and the University of Nebraska‐Lincoln for funding the GLTC workshop, as well as other institutions for their support.
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GLTC ContributorsSapna Sharma, Derek K. Gray, Jordan S. Read, Catherine M. O’Reilly, Philipp Schneider, Anam Qudrat, Corinna Gries, SamanthaStefanoff, Stephanie E. Hampton, Simon Hook, John D. Lenters, David M. Livingstone, Peter B. McIntyre, Rita Adrian, Mathew G.Allan, Orlane Anneville, Lauri Arvola, Jay Austin, John Bailey, Jill S. Baron, Justin Brookes, Yuwei Chen, Robert Daly, Martin Dokulil,Bo Dong, Kye Ewing, Elvira de Eyto, David Hamilton, Karl Havens, Shane Haydon, Harald Hetzenauer, Jocelyne Heneberry, Amy L.Hetherington, Scott N. Higgins, Eric Hixson, Lyubov R. Izmest’eva, Benjamin M. Jones, Küllli Kangur, Peter Kasprzak, Olivier Köster,Benjamin M. Kraemer, Michio Kumagai, Esko Kuusisto, George Leshkevich, Linda May, Sally MacIntyre, Dörthe Müller‐Navarra,Mikhail Naumenko, Peeter Noges, Tiina Noges, Pius Niederhauser, Ryan P. North, Andrew Paterson, Pierre‐Denis Plisnier,Anna Rigosi, Alon Rimmer, Michela Rogora, Lars Rudstam, James A. Rusak, Nico Salmaso, Nihar R. Samal, Daniel E. Schindler,Geoffrey Schladow, Silke R. Schmidt, Tracey Schultz, Eugene A. Silow, Dietmar Straile, Katrin Teubner, Piet Verburg, AriVoutilainen, Andrew Watkinson, Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer, Craig E. Williamson, Kara H. Woo, Catherine M. O'Reilly, Sapna Sharma,Derek K. Gray, Stephanie E. Hampton, Jordan S. Read, Rex J. Rowley, Philipp Schneider, John D. Lenters, Peter B. McIntyre,Benjamin M. Kraemer, Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer, Dietmar Straile, Bo Dong, Rita Adrian, Mathew G. Allan, Orlane Anneville, LauriArvola, Jay Austin, John L. Bailey, Jill S. Baron, Justin D. Brookes, Elvira de Eyto, Martin T. Dokulil, David P. Hamilton, Karl Havens,Amy L. Hetherington, Scott N. Higgins, Simon Hook, Lyubov R. Izmest'eva, Klaus D. Jöhnk, Külli Kangur, Peter Kasprzak, MichioKumagai, Esko Kuusisto, George Leshkevich, David M. Livingstone, Sally MacIntyre, Linda May, John M. Melack, Dörthe C. Müller‐Navarra, Mikhail Naumenko, Peeter Nõges, Tiina Nõges, Ryan P. North, Pierre‐Denis Plisnier, Anna Rigosi, Alon Rimmer, MichelaRogora, Lars G. Rudstam, James A. Rusak, Nico Salmaso, Nihar R. Samal, Daniel E. Schindler, S. Geoffrey Schladow, MartinSchmid, Silke R. Schmidt, Eugene Silow, M. Evren Soylu, Katrin Teubner, Piet Verburg, Ari Voutilainen, Andrew Watkinson, Craig E.Williamson, Guoqing Zhang, John D. Lenters, David M. Livingstone, Catherine M. O’Reilly, Martin T. Dokulil, Gesa A.Weyhenmeyer, Philipp Schneider, Sapna Sharma, Elvira de Eyto, Rita Adrian, Scott N. Higgins, Pierre‐Denis Plisnier, Nico Salmaso,Dietmar Straille, Bo Dong, Piet Verburg, George Leshkevich, Peter B. McIntyre, Jordan S. Read, Silke Schmidt, Peeter Nõges, Tiina Nõges, Benjamin M. Kraemer, Mathew Allan, Martin Schmid, Geoffrey Schladow, Sally MacIntyre, David Hamilton, Alon Rimmer,Orlane Anneville, Stephanie E. Hampton, Claude Duguay, Amy L. Hetherington, Dendy D. Lofton, James A. Rusak, Nihar R. Samal,Noemi Barabas, Justin Brookes, Robert C. Wilson, Derek K. Gray, Simon Hook, Mehmet E. Soylu
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Questions?