GLOBAL IRON ORE & STEEL FORECAST/media/Files/A/... · 3/23/2011  · Delivering commodity positions...

26
GLOBAL IRON ORE & STEEL FORECAST QUALITY IRON ORE A BRAZILIAN & SOUTH AFRICAN PERSPECTIVE James Harman Head of Business Development, Iron Ore & Coal 23 March 2011

Transcript of GLOBAL IRON ORE & STEEL FORECAST/media/Files/A/... · 3/23/2011  · Delivering commodity positions...

Page 1: GLOBAL IRON ORE & STEEL FORECAST/media/Files/A/... · 3/23/2011  · Delivering commodity positions in lower half of cost curves4 Iron Ore & Manganese 24% Met Coal 12% Thermal Coal

GLOBAL IRON ORE & STEEL FORECASTQUALITY IRON ORE – A BRAZILIAN & SOUTH AFRICAN PERSPECTIVE

James Harman

Head of Business Development, Iron Ore & Coal

23 March 2011

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CONTENTS

Anglo American

– World class mining company

– Strong financial position

– Diversified across the most attractive commodities

Our view of the Global economy

– Global economy

– Steel outlook

Anglo American’s Quality Iron Ore Business

– Major growth being developed

– South Africa – a unique position

– Brazil – 5 billion tonne + resource

– Anglo American’s quality advantage

– Australia

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ANGLO AMERICAN

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OUR AMBITION IS TO BE THE LEADING GLOBAL MINING COMPANY

Platinum

Diamonds

Copper

Nickel

Iron ore and Manganese

Metallurgical Coal

Thermal Coal

Corporate &

representatives offices

Key

E Exploration offices

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Outlook20152009

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

Export Thermal

Coal

Hard Coking

Coal

Export Iron Ore

PlatinumNickelCopper

WORLD CLASS MINING COMPANY

• 1. Source: Anglo American; 2. Core revenue split; 3. Source: AME, Brook Hunt, a Wood Mackenzie company, Johnson Matthey. Thermal Coal represents share of internationally traded market, nickel and copper represent share of world

mined production, 4. Source: AME, Brook Hunt, a Wood Mackenzie company, Anglo Platinum. Estimated % of attributable production in each half of the cost curve after delivery of near term pipeline by 2015

Outperforming the industry1

Delivering commodity positionsin lower half of cost curves4

Iron Ore & Manganese

24%

Met Coal12%

Thermal Coal

10%

Copper18%

Nickel2%

Platinum24%

Diamonds10%

Strengthening balance sheet

Barro Alto

Los Bronces

Kolomela

Minas Rio

2010: Proceeds from asset sales $3.3bn

2011: Key projects start production

2010 2011 2012

Well diversified portfolio2 Structurally attractive commodities3

100%

H1

H2

World class project pipeline

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Op Profit ($bn) Op Profit Margin (%)

Anglo American operating profit

Anglo American profit margin

50%

Thermal coal imports

China’s share of global consumption (%)

62%

60%

43%

38%

32%

27%

21% 11%

Nickel

Platinum

Palladium

Met Coal

Iron ore

Steel

Copper

2013

Industry profit margin

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STRONG FINANCIAL POSITION

Results shown before special items and remeasurements and including share of associates

1) Core operations exclude Tarmac, Scaw, Zinc, Copebrás, Catalão, Coal Canada and

Tongaat Hulett/Hulamin

2) Capital expenditure is presented net of cash flows on related derivatives

Underlying EPS – $

4.36 2.14 4.13

Key financials

($bn) 2010 2009 change

Core operating profit(1) 9.1 4.5 +104%

Operating profit 9.8 5.0 +97%

Effective tax rate 31.9% 33.1%

Underlying earnings 5.0 2.6 +94%

Capex(2) 5.0 4.8

EBITDA 12.0 6.9 +73%

Net debt 7.4 11.3 (35%)

2.90

1.46

0.91

1.23

1.84

H2 2010

2.29

H1 2010H2 2009H1 2009H2 2008H1 2008

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9%5%

22%

9%

10%

1%

37%

6%

UNIQUE AND WELL DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO

Samancor

KIO

Thermal Coal

Met Coal

Nickel

Copper

De Beers

Platinum

42%

12%

44%

2%

South Africa

Australia/Asia

South America

ROW

Attributable earnings by Business Unit1

%

Attributable earnings by geography %

PRECIOUS

1 Core businesses

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OUR VIEW OF THE GLOBAL

ECONOMY

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30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

2010200920082007

0

100

200

300

400

500

0

20

40

60

80

100

c/lb

2010200920082007 31 Dec 10

70

75

80

85

90

2010200920082007

OVERALL MACRO ECONOMIC AND MARKET CONTEXT

• Source: Anglo Commodity Research1. Industrial Recovery 2. Weak USD

3. Strong commodity currencies help drive high

commodity prices

4. Markets remain volatile, but more optimistic about

the global economic outlook

USD indexed to exchange rate basket

ChinaUS

0

50

100

150

2010200920082007

Metals

USDCLP

USDAUD

USDBRL

USDZAR

Sept –

Lehman

failure

Nov –

US

QE2

Copper spotVIX index

Manufacturing activity May –

Greek

rescue

package

Purchasing managers’ index, 50 = no change

VIX

Index

31 Dec 10 31 Dec 10

31 Dec 10

US

Quantitative

Easing

%

% %

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10

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

US Japan Germany UK China India Brazil

2008 2030

STRONG EMERGING MARKET GROWTH WILL CONTINUE

Source: OECD, Standard Chartered Research

Investment in infrastructure

GROWING MIDDLE CLASS IN EMERGING

ECONOMIES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE DEMAND

US$ billion, constant 2005 prices and exchange rates

CHINA AND US WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE

INFRASTRUCTURE GROWTH

Middle Classes by region, million

Source: McKinsey Global Institute

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WORLD STEEL PRODUCTION WILL CONTINUE TO GROW

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2007

2008

2009

2010F

2011F

2012F

2013F

2014F

2015F

In M

illio

n t

on

nes

North AmericaEuropeChinaCISIndiaOther

Source: Anglo American Analysis

Crude Steel Output Forecast Steel Consumption Forecast

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2007

2008

2009

2010F

2011F

2012F

2013F

2014F

2015F

In M

illio

n t

on

nes

North AmericaEuropeChinaCISIndiaOther

Crude Steel Output Forecast Steel Consumption Forecast

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

F

20

12

F

20

13

F

20

14

F

20

15

F

in M

illi

on

to

nn

es

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Continued urbanisation in China, in context of GDP growth,

drives finished steel demand

CHINA DRIVING DEMAND AND USE OF HIGHER QUALITY MATERIALS

Finished Steel Consumption kg per capita, vs. urbanisation

URBANISATION IN CHINA WILL DRIVE DEMAND

FOR OUR KEY METALS AND MINERALS

Chinese share of global stainless steel consumption increasing

Stainless steel consumption in China

…WITH A GREATER FOCUS ON HIGH QUALITY

MATERIALS

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85

Germany

South Korea

Japan

China

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n (

Mt)

1.5

8%

15%

18%

18%

21% 23%

24%

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

9.0

8.0

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

9%

12%

21%

33%

1.7

2.3

3.2

4.24.5

5.2

6.0

6.66.2

8.2

Fin

ish

ed

ste

el K

g p

er

ca

pita

Urbanisation %Source: AME, IISI, EIU

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ANGLO AMERICAN’S QUALITY

IRON ORE BUSINESS

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-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Mt

Unapproved

Construction

Production

ANGLO AMERICAN’S IRON ORE GROWTH STORY

• Projects currently in implementation or

approved will result in ~80 Mtpa production

• Ramp-up and Conceptual projects could

raise capacity to beyond ~155 Mtpa by 2020

Anglo American’s iron ore assets have the potential to produce in excess of 150 Mtpa by 2020

Current and Potential Iron Ore Production – 100%

Minas-Rio Phase 1

Amapá

Kolomela

Sishen Expansion

Sishen

Thabazimbi

Source: Anglo American Analysis

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Amapá

2010 Production 4.0 Mt

Potential 6.5 Mtpa

Reserves + Resources 238 Mt

Products Pellet Feed, Fines

Logistics Rail & Port

Product Fe Content 62 / 68%

Kumba Iron Ore

2009 Production 41.1 Mt

2010 Production 43.1 Mt

2010 Domestic Sales 7.0 Mt

2010 Export Sales 36.1 Mt

Product Fe Content 64-66%

Products Fines, Lump

Minas-Rio

Target Prod. (Phase 1) 26.5 Mtpa

Potential Capacity > 80.0 Mtpa

Resources 5.7 Bt

Product Fe Content > 68%

Products Pellet Feed, Fines

Slurry Pipeline 100% owned

Açu Port 49% owned

Açu

Port

525km

Slurry

Pipeline

1

Minas Gerais

State

Amapá

State2

Santana

Port

Rio de Janeiro State

1

SaldanhaPort

2

Sishen Mine andKolomela

Thabazimbi

Source: Anglo American Analysis

ANGLO AMERICAN HAS A UNIQUE IRON ORE FOOTPRINT

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SOUTH AFRICA: CURRENT OPERATIONS – SISHEN

• Kumba Iron Ore (KIO) (65.3% owned by Anglo

American)

• Northern Cape province of South Africa

• One of the largest open-pit mines in the world

• Produced 43.1 Mt in 2010

• Very high quality lump ore with outstanding

physical properties

Source: Kumba Iron Ore; Anglo American

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• Kolomela 9 Mtpa iron ore project on schedule for first production Q2 2012

• At full capacity the mine will deliver 9 Mtpa of high quality seaborne iron ore

• Expected to operate in the lower half of the cost curve

Source: Kumba Iron Ore; Anglo American

SOUTH AFRICA: PROJECT DEVELOPMENTS – KOLOMELA

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• Located in Amapá state, in North-East Brazil

• Fully integrated operation utilising shovel and

truck, beneficiation and rail to the Amazon port

of Santana

• Produced 4.0 Mt of iron ore in 2010

BRAZIL: CURRENT OPERATIONS – AMAPÁ

Source: Anglo American

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Açu Port

525km

Slurry

Pipeline

Minas Gerais

State

Rio de Janeiro State

BRAZIL: CURRENT PROJECT DEVELOPMENT – MINAS-RIO

• One of the world’s largest

mining projects, acquired by

Anglo American in 2007-2008

• Tier 1 asset

• Situated in an established iron

ore mining area of Brazil

• Integrated mine, pipeline and

port operations

• 5.7 Bt resource

• 26.5 Mtpa Phase 1 production

• >80 Mtpa potential production

• Extremely high quality pellet

feed

• Leading cost position, in the

first quartile of the cost curve

• Project implementation well

advanced

• FOOS planned for Q3 2013

Source: Anglo American

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20A B C D E

S2238 m

2.404 m1.816 m2.280 mF G H I J

2.770 m 3.430 m 2.790 m 3.080 m

Stockpile“IC”

Tailing dump

Plant

Sapo Itapanhoacanga

S11.940 m

S3527 m

S4846 m

S5964 m

Crusher

1.670 m

BRAZIL: CURRENT PROJECT DEVELOPMENT – MINAS-RIO

• Anglo has significantly increased Minas

Rio’s iron ore resource since the acquisition

to 5.7 Bt

• Resources consist of two closely located

assets: Itapa and Serra do Sapo

• Phase 1 plan mines the Serra do Sapo friable

resources.

• Minas-Rio will be mined with conventional

truck and shovel open-pit operation with an

average strip ratio of 1.1 over the LOM

Source: Anglo American

Limit Mineral Right Limit Tailing DumpPlant areaConveyors beltMine out pointPit

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PIPELINE

• Initial underground 26 inch diameter

slurry pipeline with 26.5Mtpa capacity

• Well-tested logistics method in Brazil

built by highly experienced local

contractors

• Slurry propelled by gravity with two

pump stations and one valve station,

developed in three spreads

• Sole use 525km pipeline corridor with

room for at least two pipelines

PORT

• 100% owned by LLX Minas-Rio – 49%

Anglo American; 51% LLX SA

• Anglo American managing port

construction

• 3,000m port access bridge completed

• 10,000 tph loading capacity

• Capesize vessels

• Land available to expand the port and/or

downstream operations

• Long term low tariff agreed

BRAZIL: CURRENT PROJECT DEVELOPMENT – INFRASTRUCTURE

Source: Anglo American

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BRAZIL: CURRENT PROJECT DEVELOPMENT – PROGRESS

ThickenerClarifier

Substation

Filtering

Building

StationTerminal

Coagulant / Flocculant

• Key components advancing in accordance with

schedule for FOOS Q3 2013

• Significant progress with licenses and permits

• Engineering and major equipment purchases

substantially completed

• Beneficiation plant – earthworks well advanced;

civil works commenced March 2011

• Pipeline – ahead of schedule

• Filtration plant – ahead of schedule

• Port – offshore bridge, iron ore pier completed

Source: Anglo American

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0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

56% 58% 60% 62% 64% 66% 68% 70%Grade

ANGLO AMERICAN IRON ORE - A QUALITY POSITION

Notes: 1. Chinese production (rich ore equivalent) inferred from a small sample of mines.Source: CRU, AME, Anglo American Analysis

Dotted bubble indicates

processed ore

Bubble size indicates an

average production of 50

Mtpa

China1

Other Africa

CIS

North America

Australia - high quality

Australia - medium quality

India

Brazil Minas-Rio Phase1

Amapá

Sishen

Minas-Rio expansion

Minas-Rio is a high grade, low contaminant expandable resource

Alu

min

a +

silic

a c

on

ten

t

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ANGLO AMERICAN IRON ORE TRADE FLOWS

Unique iron ore geographic footprint in Brazil and South Africa.

Iron ore in Australia would complement existing production and provide blending opportunities

to service clients in Asia.

?

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• Ambition to become the leading global mining company

• Global footprint

• Diversified portfolio across the most attractive commodities

• Strong financial position

• Significant existing high quality iron ore production

• Strong project pipeline towards 150mtpa

• Looking to grow our position in iron ore – Australia?

CONCLUSION

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THE LEADING GLOBAL MINING COMPANY

EMPLOYER OF CHOICE

PARTNER OF CHOICE

INVESTMENT OF CHOICE