Global Investment Weekly

2019.03.18

Market Calendar, 2019/3 W1(3/1-3/8) W2(3/10-3/15) W3(3/17-3/22) W4(3/24-3/29)

Source: Compiled by CTBC Bank, 2019/3/15

1

DM

EM

Sector

Surprise

Event

Market

Topic NPC/CPPCC Commentary

And Equity/FI/FX Strategy

Composite PMIs(1)

RBA Meeting(5)

Euro zone

4Q18GDP(7)

ECB Meeting(7)

US Nonfarm

Payroll(8)

UK Parliament Vote

(12~15)

BOJ Meeting (15)

US NFIB Small

Business

Optimism(12)

EU27 New Car

Registrations(15)

US Consumer

Confidence(15)

China Social

Financing(10)

China Retail Sales

And Industrial

Output(10)

BOT Meeting(20)

Taiwan Export

Orders(20)

BCB Meeting(20)

CBC Meeting(21)

CBR Meeting(22)

US NAHB Housing

Market Index(18)

Germany ZEW(19)

EU/JP PMI(21)

FOMC Meeting(21)

BOE Meeting(21)

Germany PMI(22)

EU Summit(21~22)

US 4Q18GDP(28)

IFO Expectation(25)

US Durable Goods

Orders(26)

Brexit Deadline(29)

SARB Meeting(28)

Brexit Analysis

Dovish Policy, Equity Consolidated At The High

2

Hot Topic

(FOMC)

Policy Move

(EM Central

Banks)

Fed: FOMC To Hold Rates, Focus On QT Change

HDY: Reflected The Yield And Valuation Advantage, Limited Upside In Mar

Credit: US HYBs Duration Slid To Low, To Balance Risk With US IGBs

Key Events

EM Central Bank: EM Central Banks Tends To Be Soft And Dovish

Brazil Strategy: Reform And Privatization Boosted Equity To New High,

Cautious In May

Credit Strategy: Easing Policies Are Positive, But EM Yield Advantage

Slowly Erased

ZAR: Event Disturbance Before Election, Focus On Mar Moody’s Review

BOE: BOE Would Continue The Wait-And-See Attitude In Prior Meeting

UK: Brexit Extension Chosen, UK Parliament Still Faces Hard Decisions

Tech: Exhibition/New Product Momentum, Tech Back To Peak Season

Source: Compiled by CTBC Bank, 2019/3/15

Investment Strategy Summary

Part I Macro and Market Review

Part II Short-Term Focus and Strategy

Agenda

3

Economic Data Release Review(3/8-3/14)

4

Source: Bloomberg, Compiled by CTBC Bank, 2019/3/15

Release Date Country Economic Data Period Consensus Actual Prior

03/08/2019 07:50 JP GDP Annualized SA QOQ 4Q F 1.70% 1.90% 1.40%

03/08/2019 15:00 GE Factory Orders WDA YOY Jan -3.20% -3.90% -7.00%

03/08/2019 21:30 US Change In Nonfarm Payrolls Feb 180k 20k 304k

03/10/2019 09:00 CN New Yuan Loans CNY Feb 950.0b 885.8b 3230.0b

03/11/2019 14:00 JP Machine Tool Orders YOY Feb P -- -29.30% -18.80%

03/11/2019 20:30 US Retail Sales Ex Auto MOM Jan 0.30% 0.90% -1.80%

03/12/2019 20:30 US CPI YOY Feb 1.60% 1.50% 1.60%

03/13/2019 18:00 EC Industrial Production WDA YOY Jan -2.10% -1.10% -4.20%

03/13/2019 20:30 US Durables Ex Transportation Jan P 0.10% -0.10% 0.10%

03/14/2019 10:00 CN Industrial Production YTD YOY Feb 5.60% 5.30% 6.20%

03/14/2019 10:00 CN Retail Sales YTD YOY Feb 8.20% 8.20% 9.00%

Macro Data Review: Global outlook data continued to be weak. Japan 4Q18 economic growth was upgraded to 1.9%

but the relatively leading machine tool orders YOY fell 30% in 1Q19. Global trade climate deteriorated due to Sino-US

trade uncertainty. With close trade partnership with China, Euro zone outlook was hit with Germany factory orders

sliding 3.9% and overall Euro zone industrial production at -1.1%. China’s own industrial production also slowed, the

worst growth since Financial Crisis of 2007. Global manufacturing activity has also cooled down with CPI falling

moderately with the sliding property price amid slowing terminal demand. In general, low inflation provides the room for

global central banks to pause their monetary tightening.

Macro Review

Global Equity Index Change

Market Confidence Recovery Fueled The Return Of Risk Assets

Country: Market concern over no deal Brexit slid, fueling EU equity to rally. Investors placed high expectation on Apple

spring press conference. S&P500 index rose 2% in the past 5 days, consolidating around 2800. India equity was

motivated by the rebound of support rate for Modi’s NDA in poll, boosting the chance of a 2nd term. Sensex index is now

at new high this year.

Sector: Sector equity mostly rallied with energy sector led the gainers due to increased output cut by Saudi, sanction

and load shedding in Venezuela, which creating supply shortage of crude oil. Tech was the 2nd biggest gainer due to

Apple spring press conference on 3/25 and Nvidia M&A theme. Tech is also the biggest gainer MTD. As the shock of

Medical-for-all proposal faded and new FDA head was assigned, lower biotech uncertainty boosted healthcare sector.

Source: Bloomberg, past month is for 2018/2/14~2019/3/14, past week is for 2019/3/8~2019/3/14.

Sector indices based on Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) global 11 sectors. 5

Global Sector Index Change

Market Review

FI: HYBs performed the best in DM bonds. PBOC monetary easing boosted the real estate centered Asia HYBs. In

addition, dovish ECB also motivated the EU HYBs to gain the 2nd most. Yield spread of major currency sovereign bonds

in EM narrowed 3 bps with LatAm performing the best.

FX: US nonfarm payroll disappointed. Moderate inflation also supported a dovish Fed so DXY retraced slightly from the

high. UK parliament voted down the Brexit deal by UK PM and no deal Brexit. It would apply for a Brexit extension from

EU, boosting pound. South Africa president intended to nationalize SARB again, triggering investors concern over

central bank independence while the largest trade union of Eskom might strike before the election, weakening ZAR.

Policy Change Motivated, HYBs And GBP Outperformed

Source: Bloomberg, past month is for 2018/2/14~2019/3/14, past week is for 2019/3/8~2019/3/14

Note: Bonds take BAML Bond Index price change in the period. FX is against USD. 6

Global Bond Index Change Global FX Change (Against USD)

Market Review

Part I Macro and Market Review

Part II Short-Term Focus and Strategy

Agenda

7

Fed To Maintain Policy In FOMC, Focus On QT Change

Source: FED, Bloomberg, 2019/3/8, Compiled by CTBC Bank, 2019/3/11

Majority Officials ‘Remains Patient’ In Mar Fed Officials All Dovish Since Dec 18

Mar Fed Official Attitude Vote

Powell (Chairman) Rate Roughly Neutral

‘Patient, Wait-and-see’ V

William (New York) Remains Patient V

Brainard (Board) ‘Softer’ Path

Weakness In Economy V

Bostic (Atlanta) Remains Patient, Neutral

Rate At 3%

Rosengren (Boston) Remains Patient V

Kashkari (Minneapolis) Weak Employment

FOMC Analysis: We expect Fed to keep rate at 2.25-2.5% but be more pessimistic towards outlook in the press

conference with Jan content of ‘In light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures, the

Committee will be patient’ being kept. It might cut quarterly growth/inflation forecast and medium of dot plot (current 2.9% =

1-2 hikes). Powell stated in Jan that Fed has started the discussion of pace of QT. It would keep a larger balance sheet

perceived to be $3.5trillion by the market to satisfy liquidity demand. Fed balance sheet was $3.97trillion by 2/28. With

$50B of monthly tapering, it would reach $3.5trillion in Nov. The focus is whether this QT pace would be amended. There

were 7 officials opting for QT adjustment with Harker provoked a pause this year. FOMC next week would still be dovish.

Policy Outlook: Amid global outlook downturn, US 1Q19 data mostly disappointed. As Beige Book stated, government

shutdown, trade uncertainty, storms in the northeast and central, external slowdown all pressurized US outlook. With falling

employment, mfg and retails, without inflationary pressure, monetary policy would have more room for patience.

FOMC

Reflected The Yield And Valuation Advantage, Limited Upside In March

9

HDY Sector Relatively Strong Amid Falling Yield

Central Banks Delaying Rate Hikes, Benefiting High Dividend Yield Sector: Due to slowing global growth,

Fed believed rate hike is unnecessary for now while ECB also delayed the rate hike, US 10-yr treasury yield was

pressured within 2.6~2.7% range. HDY sectors usually outperformed when treasury yield falls. (Current MSCI

Utility and Real Estate dividend yield averaged 3.7% and 3.4% respectively while the World Index only had 2.5%)

Reflected The Yield And Valuation Advantage, Limited Upside In March: Though Fed stayed dovish, global

macro data have confirmed US was still the relatively stable economy among major countries so US 10-yr

treasury yield is unlikely to breach the bottom. We think MSCI Utilities and Real Estate rally would shrink with

limited upside when treasury yield consolidates at low but not breaching the bottom and P/E ratio has approached

the 5-yr average (Utilities current:17X, average: 16X. Real Estate current: 24.3X, average: 24.5X) with

conservative market forecast on corporate earnings.

Forecast HDY Earnings To Slow In 2Q19

Source: Bloomberg, 2019/3/12, Compiled by CTBC Bank, 2019/3/12

MSCI Real Estate MSCI Utilities MSCI World

US 10-yr Treasury Yield

FOMC – High Dividend Yield Sector

US HYBs Duration Slid To Low, To Balance Risk With US IGBs

10

US HYBs Duration Slid To Historical Low: Yield spread of US HYBs rose 17 bps in the past 5 days, but Fed still

make the rate hike decision based on outlook, causing a downward shift of US treasury yield curve. Compounded with

short duration of US HYBs, the index fell slightly. In terms of DM bonds duration, US 10 year or longer HYB issuance

slid, causing overall duration to fall to 3.75 years, lowest since 2000. Tech HYB duration slid to 3.04 years, quite

significant compared to earlier this year. Lower duration would be less sensitive to rate change so lower duration of US

HYBs compared to US IGBs (7 years) could reduce the price fall during rising yield environment.

US/EU HYBs Convexity Also Lowered: As US/EU HYBs duration continued to fall in the past 4 years, bond convexity

also fell to historical low so when rate falls, HYBs price gain would be smaller but when rate rises, HYBs price loss

would be higher. Because falling duration of HYBs might boost refinancing demand of issuers, we recommend to

complement it with short duration IGBs for a smoother portfolio.

US/EU HYBs Convexity Also At Historical Low

Source: ICE Data Indices, 2019/3/12, Compiled by CTBC Bank, 2019/3/12

US HYBs Duration At Historical Low

FOMC – Bond Strategy

Late Mar EM Central Bank Likely To Hold: Brazil and

Russia are likely to hold rate in late March. Thailand

domestic demand outlook was relatively stable. BOT

observed rising domestic private demands with inflation

of 0.73% lower than its forecast. With election insight,

BOT is likely to hold its rate. South Africa inflation slid

significantly, so rate hike chance is lowered.

Internal/External Changes: With ECB/Fed both

dovish and relatively weak Citi EM Surprise Index, if

currency crisis does not resurface and inflation is under

control, central banks would tend to be soft.

Source: (Top Right)Bloomberg, 2018/3/14~2019/3/14, (Bottom Left)JPM, 2019/1/24, (Bottom Right)Bloomberg, 2017/3~2019/2

EM Central Banks Tend To Be Soft

South Africa Inflation Slowed, Mar Hike Unlikely Thailand Inflation Stable, Mar To Hold Rate

Citi Emerging Market Surprise Index Still Weak

Jan Inflation

Below 4.5%

EM Central Banks

Two Rate Hikes Last Year Were Precautionary To Rising Inflation: Russia central bank did not change its benchmark

rate in Feb meeting, stating it would monitor the impact of VAT hike. Governor Nabiullina also stressed the prior rate

hikes were not the start of a tightening cycle. Whether inflation would reach the forecasted 6% would determine whether

there would be a rate hike in 1H19.

Internal/External Developments Might Change Central Bank Attitude: We expect the Mar meeting would hold rate at

7.75%. But since last meeting, major EU central banks have turned more dovish while Feb inflation was only 5.2%. VAT

burden transferred to consumers seemed to be far less than the forecasted 1% (IBs and Bloomberg stats showed

0.2%~0.4% of inflation increase). Therefore the focus would be whether the central bank changes its hawkish attitude of

last year or the inflation forecast.

Source: (L)Bloomberg, 2016/3~2019/2, (R)Goldman Sachs, 2019/3/1

Russia Central Bank Might Change Inflation Forecast Slightly

Leading Indicator Still Weak Inflation Is Slower Than Forecasted YTD

3 Months

Delay

EM Central Bank – CBR

Global Slowdown And Lower Than Target Inflation Keeps BCB Dovish

Source: (L)Markit, 2019/3/12, (R)Bloomberg, 2019/3/13

Brazil Macro: Brazilian corporate outlook NTM stayed optimistic. Private sector increased hiring amid outlook expansion.

Willingness of R&D expenditure also surged. Manufacturing PMI continued to strengthen with employment growth at 9-yr

high. Trade balance released early this month showed $3.673B net export, higher than consensus of $3B, 2nd highest net

export since data compilation in 1989. Brazil macro data continued to improve. Inflation, industrial production and retail

sales data would be released on 3/11-3/15. Market expects Feb inflation to stay low while output and retail to improve.

BCB: Feb inflation rose from 3.78% to 3.89% but lower than BCB targets of 4.25% and 4% for 2019/2020. BCB forecast

of inflation for these two years were 3.9% and 3.6% respectively. Lower inflation outlook than BCB target means rate hike

pace might be slower. With trade uncertainty and the downside economic risk from policy reform depressing inflation,

overall Brazil monetary policy would maintain dovish. We think Brazil would maintain normalization in 2019 as outlook

recovers. But due to downside risk of global growth and political uncertainty, its rate hike might be delayed.

Brazil Inflation Rose But Lower Than Target Brazil Corporate Outlook Optimistic

13

EM Central Bank - BCB

Reform And Privatization Boosted Equity To New High, Cautious In May

14

Brazilian President Pressed Congress To Pass Pension Reform Bill:

Brazil Congress has formed a pension bill committee as a key step

towards legislation. Pension Reform Bill needs to pass both Chamber of

Deputies and Federal Senate with two rounds of votes each. Chamber of

Deputies vote is expected to be in end of May as the first checkpoint of

the chance of passing the bill. Brazil IBOV index has consolidated for

some time after the surge in Jan for clearer rally signal in end of May.

Brazil Reform and Privatization Boosted Equity, But Consolidation

In Mid-May Likely: In terms of Brazilian sectors, we prefer financial,

consumer and utilities. Financial is entering a super cycle with low rate

and recovering growth boosting loan demand. SOEs in energy and

utilities would gain from better governance and privatization opportunity.

Source: (Top Right)Bloomberg, 2019/3/13, (Bottom Left)JPM, 2019/2/21, (Bottom Right)JPM, 2019/3/7

Brazil SOEs Concentrated On Utilities And Energy President Pressed Congress For Pension Bill

MSCI Brazil YTD Sector Change(%)

No. of SOEs

EM Central Bank – Brazil Strategy

Easing Policies Are Positive, But EM Yield Advantage Slowly Erased

15

EMEA Bond Market Faces High Geopolitical Risks: EM central banks were softer especially after the dovish Fed.

With lower chance of price surge in commodities such as crude oil, EM faced less upward pressure on yield. But EM

major currency sovereign bonds yield spreads were lower than average. Among the 3 major regions, only EMEA bonds

have slight advantage but its geopolitical risk is high and deteriorating such as the sanction risk of Russian sovereign

debt and stagflation of Turkey. EMEA bond market is more volatile.

EM Sovereign Bonds Prefer Short Duration: Due to slowing economic growth, lower inflation pressure and flattening

DM yield curve, EM treasury yield curves were largely flattener than half year ago. But some EM countries might have

deteriorating fiscals in supporting economic growth. This has large impact on the long duration treasury bonds.

Investment in short duration bonds could already achieve relatively high yield. The short duration could also reduce

volatility risk.

EM Central Bank – Bond Strategy

EMEA Has Higher Than Average Yield Spread Most EM Treasury Yield Curve Flat Or Downward

Source: (L)ICE Data Indices, 2019/3/12, (R)Bloomberg, 2019/3/13, due to absence of 5-yr treasury yield data, Brazil and South

Africa used 3-yr treasury yield instead. Compiled by CTBC Bank

LatAM

EMEA

EM Asia

*Dotted Line Is Regional Average

Event Disturbance Before Election, Focus On Mar Moody’s Review

16

Events Before Election: Negative news relating to SA

election includes the SARB nationalization proposal,

uncertainty due to land reform proposal delayed to after

election and largest trade union of Eskom might strike

before election. With Moody’s reviewing SA rating EOM,

there was small capital outflow from SA.

Market Calm: CDS and bond market had no apparent

reaction. Only the sensitive FX market responding to

the negative news so ZAR was relatively weak recently.

In a risk scenario, if Moody’s eventually downgraded SA,

there would be $6-7B outflow from SA bonds, hitting

USD/ZAR to the high of 2H18.

CDS Indicates Low Downgrading Risk Of SA SA Bonds Stable, Supporting ZAR

Source: Bloomberg, 2019/3/13, Compiled by CTBC Bank, 2019/3/14

South Africa Capital Outflow Since Mar

Oman(Ba1, Negative)

South Africa (Baa3, Stable)

Brazil (Ba2, Stable)

Russia (Baa3,

Stable)

Oman

Downgraded

by Moody’s On

3/4

Foreign Net

Purchase Of SA

Equities 30DMA

Foreign Net

Purchase Of SA

Bonds 30DMA

South

Africa 2-yr

Treasury

Yield

South

Africa 10-yr

Treasury

Yield

USD/ZAR

EM Central Bank – ZAR strategy

BOE Would Continue The Wait-And-See Attitude In Prior Meeting

17

Brexit Uncertainty Disturbed Rate Hike Pace: In BOE Feb rate meeting, governor Carney downgraded 2019 and

2020 UK economic growth to 1.2% and 1.5% (lower than forecast 3 months ago at 1.7%), citing increased Brexit

uncertainty. 2018 was also the weakest year of UK economic growth since 2012.

If Brexit Deadline Extended, Economic Shock About -0.2%: According to Bloomberg, if Brexit is delayed 3 months,

the 2019 GDP growth would reduce by 0.2%. And if the uncertainty persists, it would drag down GDP more severely.

Considering the current situation, BOE Mar meeting would likely hold until the Brexit ‘fog’ clears. From the interest rate

futures, the chance of rate hike was lower than 50% until EOY. UK budget office stated 2019 fiscal year net bond

issuance was the lowest since 2016, depressing 10-yr GILT yield due to undersupply.

Source: Bloomberg, 2019/3/13

UK Economic Growth Shock If Brexit Delays 3 Months BOE 2019 Rate Hike Unlikely

Brexit - BOE

Brexit Extension Chosen, UK Parliament Still Faces Hard Decisions

18

EU Strategy

Paths After Parliament Chose Extension Extension Not The End: Though the shortfall was reduced from

230 in Jan to 149, amended May Brexit Deal was voted down

again on 3/12. Parliament also voted down 3/29 no deal Brexit

on 3/13 while favored deadline extension on 3.14. This bill

request government to seek longer extension if MPs vote May’s

deal down the 3rd time on 3/20. But if May’s deal is approved

before 3/20, extension would only be until 6/30. Scenarios:

Deal Brexit

Extend

Stay In

EU

No Deal

Brexit

May packaging the extension length into Brexit

deal increases the opportunity cost of Brexit MPs

boycott. Brexit MPs in Conservatives might be

forced to support the deal to avoid soft Brexit or

no Brexit . UK/EU equity could rebound.

According to 3/14 bill plan, if May’s deal was not

agreed before 3/20, government would seek

longer extension (over 3 months). Long

extension could raise the uncertainty of 2nd

referendum or reelection, extending the

deadlock. Expect UK/EU equity to rebound

before falling.

As Brexit extension bill passed, no deal Brexit

probability has been lowered but still possible. If

the surprise comes, UK/EU equity could

plunge though the scenario is unlikely. Source: BBC, Compiled by CTBC Bank, 2019/3/15

Exhibition/New Product Momentum, Tech Back To Peak Season

19

Market Starts To Reflect Positive Tech Theme: Apple

would hold spring press conference on 3.25. Market

expects Apple News and streaming service would turn

Apple from hardware producer to software service

provider. The news might not have caused such

momentum in Mar 18. Fundamentals have turned

downward since the weakness of semiconductors in

2H18. Diversification shed lights for the sector, showing

tech sector is still active on themes and momentum.

We think there might be short-term profit taking risk,

but positive in the long-term. After absorbing the

shocks, 2Q19 peak season would be more stable.

Terminal Replacement Demand Persists Tech Fundamental Weak But Better Than Others

Source: (Top Right)Bloomberg, 2018/3/11-2019/3/11, (Bottom Left)BuzzFeed News, Apple, Compiled by CTBC Bank, 2019/3/14,

(Bottom Right)BLS, 2019/1/18, Compiled by CTBC Bank, 2019/1/18

Rapid Tech Rebound, Semiconductor Still Weak

MSCI Software Service (LV2)

MSCI Tech(LV1)

MSCI Hardware(LV2)

MSCI Semiconductor(LV2)

(Normalized)

Apple Press Conference – Tech Strategy

Target Price – Rates/FI

20

Source: Compiled by CTBC Bank, 2019/3/15

第二層 第三層 2019/3/14 2019Q2 預估幅度 2019Q3 預估幅度

美國聯邦基準利率(上緣) 2.50 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.00

美國10Y 2.63 2.90 0.27 2.90 0.27

巴西利率 6.50 6.75 0.25 6.75 0.25

歐洲央行再融資利率 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

德國10Y 0.09 0.35 0.26 0.35 0.26

英國央行利率 0.75 0.75 0.00 0.75 0.00

英國10Y 1.22 1.35 0.13 1.30 0.08

南非政策利率 6.75 6.75 0.00 6.75 0.00

南非2Y 7.13 7.20 0.07 7.35 0.22

俄羅斯政策利率 7.75 8.00 0.25 8.00 0.25

日本央行利率 -0.10 (0.10) 0.00 (0.10) 0.00

日本10Y -0.04 (0.10) -0.06 (0.12) -0.08

中國存準率 13.50 12.5 -1.00 12.0 -1.50

中國2Y 2.66 2.50 -0.16 2.45 -0.21

台灣央行利率 1.38 1.38 0.00 1.38 0.00

澳洲目標利率 1.50 1.50 0.00 1.25 -0.25

澳洲10Y 1.97 1.85 -0.12 1.80 -0.17

美

歐

亞

第二層 第三層 2019/3/14 2019Q2 預估幅度

全球投資級債 3.04 3.30 -0.9%

美國投資級債 3.88 3.99 0.2%

歐洲投資級債 0.95 1.20 -1.0%

全球高收益債 6.12 6.92 -1.4%

美國高收益債 6.45 6.96 -0.3%

歐洲高收益債 3.57 4.46 -2.2%

新興主要貨幣主權債指數新興主要貨幣主權債 5.84 6.30 -1.8%

新興主要貨幣企業債 5.85 6.50 -1.9%

新興投資級債 4.26 4.70 -1.4%

新興高收益債 7.09 8.00 -1.5%

新興當地貨幣債 6.37 6.65 0.1%

人民幣債 3.72 4.05 0.2%

亞洲當地貨幣債 4.92 5.30 -1.3%

成熟市場投資級債指數

成熟市場高收益債指數

新興主要貨幣企業債指數

新興當地貨幣債指數

Target Price

Target Price - Equity

21

Source: Compiled by CTBC Bank, 2019/3/15

第二層 第三層 2019/3/14 2019Q2 預估幅度

成熟市場股 2096.3 2150 2.6%

美國 2808.5 2900 3.3%

拉丁美洲 2819.5 2800 -0.7%

巴西 98604.7 97000 -1.6%

歐洲 3092.5 2960 -4.3%

英國 3941.8 3800 -3.6%

德國 11587.5 11200 -3.3%

新興歐洲 315.3 292 -7.4%

俄羅斯 1182.0 1100 -6.9%

泛太平洋 157.7 160 1.4%

澳洲 6266.8 6200 -1.1%

日本 21287.0 23000 8.0%

新興市場股 1048.2 1020 -2.7%

新興亞洲 530.0 520 -1.9%

中國A 2990.7 2800 -6.4%

中國H 11447.3 11000 -3.9%

香港 28851.4 27500 -4.7%

台灣 10348.7 10500 1.5%

韓國 2155.7 2300 6.7%

印度 37754.9 39550 4.8%

東協 788.1 820 4.1%

科技 247.8 250 0.9%

非核心消費 243.8 253 3.8%

工業 248.4 255 2.7%

金融 113.7 104 -8.5%

地產 218.9 205 -6.3%

能源 207.9 203 -2.3%

原物料 250.5 248 -1.0%

公用事業 137.4 132 -3.9%

核心消費 227.6 230 1.1%

健護 247.1 238 -3.7%

電信 69.0 65 -5.9%

美

歐

亞

成長型產業

利率型產業

天然資源產業

防禦型產業

Target Price

Target Price – FX/Commodity

22

Source: Compiled by CTBC Bank, 2019/3/15

第二層 第三層 2019/3/14 2019Q2 預估幅度

美元指數 96.785 96 -0.8%

美元兌日圓 111.7 112 0.3%

歐元兌美元 1.1304 1.14 0.8%

美元兌瑞郎 1.0038 0.99 -1.4%

英鎊兌美元 1.3242 1.34 1.2%

澳幣兌美元 0.7064 0.69 -2.3%

紐幣兌美元 0.6823 0.66 -3.3%

美元兌加幣 1.3335 1.34 0.5%

美元兌台幣 30.901 30.8 -0.3%

美元兌星幣 1.3558 1.35 -0.4%

美元兌人民幣 6.723 6.85 1.9%

美元兌南非幣 14.5378 13.8 -5.1%

布蘭特原油 66.74 66 -1.1%

鐵礦砂 86.05 78 -9.4%

黃金 1296.17 1330 2.6%

成熟國家

商品貨幣

新興貨幣

Target Price

23

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be read with CTBC’s General Terms and Conditions including without limitation Risks Disclosure Statements, Supplemental Terms and Conditions and such terms and conditions specified by CTBC from time to time.

3. You are advised to exercise caution in relation to this document. If you are in any doubt about any of the contents of this document, you should obtain independent professional advice from a licensed or exempt financial adviser before making your commitment to invest in the investments and/or products referred to herein.

4. If you choose not to seek advice from a licensed or exempt financial adviser or such other independent professional, you should carefully consider whether investment in the investments and/or products referred to herein is suitable and appropriate for you taking into consideration the risks and associated risks.

5. The final terms and conditions of the proposed investment in the investments and/or products referred to herein will have to be set out in full in the definitive trade confirmation between CTBC and you.

6. CTBC does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained herein or otherwise provided by CTBC at any time. All of the information here may change at any time without notice.

7. CTBC is not responsible for any loss or damage suffered arising from this document.

8. CTBC may act as principal or agent in similar transactions or in transactions with respect to the instruments underlying the transaction.

9. Until such time you appoint CTBC, CTBC is not acting in the capacity of your financial adviser or fiduciary.

10. Investments involve risks. Past performance figures, predictions or projections are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Actual performance may differ from the projections in this document.

11. Any references to a company, financial product etc is used for illustrative purpose and does not represent our recommendation in any way.

12. Any scenario analysis is provided for illustrative purpose only and is no indication as to future performance and it does not reflect a complete analysis of all possible scenarios that may arise under an actual transaction. All opinions and estimates given in the scenarios are illustrative and do not represent actual transactions.

13. The information in this document must not be reproduced or shared without our written agreement.

14. This document does not identify all the risks or material considerations that may be associated with you entering into of the transaction and the transaction period you wish to consider.

15. This document does not and is not intended to predict actual results and no assurances whatsoever are given with respect thereto. It does not present all possible outcomes or takes into consideration all factors that may affect or influence the transaction.

16. This document is based on CTBC’s understanding that you have inter alia sufficient knowledge, experience and access to professional advice to make your own evaluation and choices of the merits and risks of such investments and you are not relying on the CTBC nor any of our representatives or affiliates for information, advice or recommendations of any sort whatsoever.

17. You should have determined without relying on CTBC or any of our representatives or affiliates for information, advice or recommendations of any sort whatsoever, the economic risks and merits as well as the legal tax and accounting aspects and consequences of the transaction and that you are able to fully assume such risks.

18. CTBC accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss of whatsoever nature suffered by you arising from the use of this document or reliance on the information contained herein.

19. CTBC may have alliances with product providers for which CTBC may receive a fee and product providers may also receive fees from your investments.

20. The following exemptions under the Financial Advisers Regulations apply to the CTBC and its representatives: (1) Regulation 33(1) – Exemption from complying with section 25 of the Financial Advisers Act (“FAA”) when making a recommendation in respect of (a) any designated investment product (within

the meaning of section 25(6) of the FAA) to an accredited investor; (b) any designated investment product (within the meaning of section 25(6) of the FAA) that is a capital market product, to an expert investor;

(2) Regulation 34(1) – Exemption from complying with section 27 of the FAA when making a recommendation in respect of (a) any investment product to an accredited investor; (b) any capital markets product to an expert investor or (c) any Government securities;

(3) Regulations 36(1) and (2) – Exemption from complying with sections 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 32, 34 and 36 of the FAA when providing any financial advisory service to any person outside of Singapore who is (a) an individual and (i) not a citizen of Singapore; (ii) not a permanent resident of Singapore; and (iii) not wholly or partly dependant on a citizen or permanent resident of Singapore; or (b) in any other case , a person with no commercial or physical presence in Singapore.